Nuggets-Jazz Outlook
By Kevin Rogers
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
Series Price: Denver -200, Utah +170
Series Format: Denver, 2-2-1-1-1
Skinny: One month ago, the Nuggets figured they would be the second seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Less than a week ago, Denver was staring at two road games out of the gate in the first round. With several circumstances going the Nuggets' way, Denver gets home-court advantage in this round, while battling a Jazz team they have beaten three times.
Denver came several games within the NBA Finals last season, only to fall short to the Lakers in six games of the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets began the season at 19-7, but Chauncey Billups missed eight of the next nine games as Denver went 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS without their point guard. Carmelo Anthony was also sidelined due to a sprained ankle, keeping their leading scorer out for a total 13 games, but the Nuggets went 8-5. In the final 31 games with both Anthony and Billups healthy, Denver went 19-12 SU, but compiled a 12-16-3 ATS mark.
The Jazz finished one win shy of the Northwest Division title and the all-important third seed in the West. Utah was tripped up in the season finale against Phoenix, losing the division to Denver while playing the first two games of this series on the road as a five seed. Carlos Boozer should be set to take the court against Denver after the forward suffered an injured oblique muscle against Golden State on Tuesday.
Utah struggled down the stretch on the road by dropping six of the final ten games away from Salt Lake. The Jazz pulled off a span of 10 victories in 12 tries on the highway following a mid-January loss at Denver, including a 10-2 ATS mark. The total was tough to gauge over the final two months, as the 'under' hit in nine of the last 13 games after a 10-3 'over' stretch from late February through mid-March.
The Nuggets had plenty of success against the Jazz this season, capturing three of four meetings, while finishing 'over' the total three times. Denver rallied past Utah at Pepsi Center, 114-105 on Opening Night as five-point home favorites. The Nuggets found a way to shock the Jazz without Billups and Anthony in early January, 105-95, as Utah committed 25 turnovers in the loss. Anthony went off for 37 points in a seven-point home win on January 17, but the Jazz managed a 'push' with a late Kyle Korver jumper. Billups and Anthony sat out again in Salt Lake two weeks later, as the Jazz avoided the season sweep with a 116-106 victory as ten-point 'chalk.'
Gambling Notes: Denver's ATS numbers over the final month were terrible, going 4-11-1 ATS the last 16 games. The Nuggets went 6-11 ATS the final 17 contests at Pepsi Center, but compiled a 13-8-1 ATS mark as single-digit home favorites this season. The 'under' hit in 11 of the final 15 games, as the Nuggets scored above 100 points just four times in this span.
The Jazz took care of business at home by covering eight of the final 11 at Energy Solutions Arena. The only three playoff teams the Jazz beat in this stretch were the Bobcats, Thunder, and Celtics, as many people remember that overtime non-cover against Oklahoma City when Kevin Durant was hit on the hand at the buzzer but no foul was called. Utah improved this season as a road underdog (11-10-1 ATS), however, the Jazz dropped each of their final four games both SU and ATS when getting points on the highway.
Series Outlook: The Nuggets received a second-life by getting home-court in this round following a tough stretch. Utah will be without swingman Andrei Kirilenko (calf) in this series, which hurts the Jazz on both ends of the court. Seeing Denver's success against Utah in the regular season, the Jazz will be lucky to grab one or two games in this series. The Nuggets will advance to the next round, setting up a rematch with the Lakers in the second round.
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