Opening Round Angles
By Marc Lawrence
The 2011 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let's take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.
Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
NCAA Tourney - most recent trends
# #1 Seeds are 80-0 SU (45-34-1 ATS) vs. #16 Seeds
# #2 Seeds are 76-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs. #15 Seeds
# Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (4-4 SU & 6-2 ATS L2Y)
# Favorites of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-30-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
# Favorites of 4 > & pts are 3-12 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
# Favorites of > 7 pts who scored 100 > pts in last Conference Tourney game are 11-2 ATS
# Dogs of 4 > pts playing off a SU Conference Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 5-26-1 ATS last 11 years
# Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 5-1 ATS
Because it's my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let's take a look at some of the more relevant Most Recent Trend results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
First round trends
# #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favorties of < 25 pts are 14-2 ATS
# #2 Seeds are 7-21-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win
# #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 30-1 SU & 22-8-1 ATS (6-1 L4Y)
# #4 Seeds are 26-13 ATS as favorites of pts
# Favorites of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs. a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)
ATS records of Conference Tournament Champions in this round
ACC: 2-5
Atlantic 10: 0-4
Big 10: 2-4
Big 12: 3-7
Big East: 4-13
Big West: 2-4
Colonial: 13-5
C-USA: 0-4
Horizon: 5-1
MAC: 4-1
Missouri Valley: 2-4
Mountain West: 3-7
Pac-10: 4-1
Sun Belt: 3-2
SEC: 3-2
WAC: 2-4
West Coast: 2-4
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 12-0
Maryland: 10-0
North Carolina: 8-0
Missouri: 5-0
Pittsburgh: 5-0
Texas A&M: 5-0
Kansas: 4-0
Kentucky: 16-1
Duke: 13-1
Cincinnati: 10-1
Worst Team SU records in this round
Utah St: 0-5
Clemson: 0-4
BYU: 1-7
San Diego St.: 0-3
Best Team ATS records in this round
Xavier: 6-0-2
Texas A&M: 5-0
Washington: 3-0
Butler: 6-1
West Virginia: 5-1
Boston College: 4-1
Georgetown: 4-1
Pittsburgh: 4-1
Purdue: 4-1
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Clemson: 0-4
Temple: 0-3
Tennessee: 1-9
Gonzaga: 1-5
Ohio State: 1-5
Connecticut: 1-4
Duke: 1-4
Best Conference ATS records in this round
MAC: 7-2
Big 12: 12-4
Horizon: 9-3
Colonial: 8-4
Missouri Valley: 10-5
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
CUSA: 1-5
Ivy: 2-10
Big 10: 2-9
Mountain West: 3-7
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I'll be back Saturday with a look at 2nd Round action. Now, let the games begin!