Opening Round Trends
By Marc Lawrence
The 2010 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.
NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS
• #1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds
• #2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds
• Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY)
• Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Favs of 4 > & pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years
• Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS
• Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
FIRST ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y)
• #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y)
• #4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of pts
• Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)
Conference Tournament Champs in this round
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst Team SU records in this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best Team ATS records in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist.
I’ll be back next week with a look at SWEET 16 action. Let the games begin!