Pac-10 Bubble Watch
By Joe Nelson
Last season looked like a year where the Pac-10 would only get one team into the NCAA tournament as there was mediocrity throughout the league. Every team ended the season with double-digit losses and 13-5 was the top mark in conference play with only four of ten teams featuring winning conference records. California won the regular season title but did not look completely safe for a tournament bid until they won a few games in the conference tournament. In the conference tournament championship game Washington beat California to lock up the automatic bid and the conference was saved the embarrassment of joining the MAC, SWAC, Ohio Valley and many other less prestigious leagues as a one-bid conference.
When it was all said and done though the Pac-10 acquitted itself fairly well in the Big Dance. California as a #8 seed pounded Louisville from the Big East 77-62 and then lost in a competitive second round game against eventual national champion Duke. As a #11 seed Washington squeaked by Marquette of the Big East in an exciting first round game and then upset #3 seed New Mexico in a blowout, winning 82-64 to move on to the Sweet 16. Washington lost there to a #2 seeded West Virginia team that would eventually win the region and make the Final Four. All in all it was a very respectable showing for the two representatives.
The Pac-10 did not have a great non-conference showing and few teams stood out early in the 2010-11 season. There will again be a small group of teams entering the NCAA tournament from the Pac-10, likely just three teams at most but don’t rule out those teams as being serious threats in the NCAA Tournament. Barring a very poor finish or an upset in the conference tournament Arizona, Washington, and UCLA all look in position to make the NCAA Tournament at this point, here is a look at those three teams in more depth and a look at the closing weeks of the conference schedule.
Arizona: The Wildcats are 11-2 in league play and with a 22-4 overall record the storied Arizona program is finally getting some national attention with a rise in the rankings. The two non-conference losses should only help to build the resume for the Wildcats, losing to Kansas and BYU and both games were away from home. The loss that takes Arizona out of the truly elite picture was a 76-75 loss at Oregon State very early in the conference season. At 9-15 Oregon State has not been a quality team and that upset will drop Arizona a notch in the seeding when the brackets come out. The only other loss in conference play came at Washington and while that loss is not too damaging, especially if revenge can be had with a home win this weekend, the margin of defeat was significant at 17 points. Arizona has won four consecutive road games since that loss and the Wildcats have been on an ATS tear so this is a team that could finish strong down the stretch and be a real threat to make noise in the NCAA tournament, likely seeded in a #3-5 slot. Arizona does not have any high quality wins which is why some still have some doubts with this team but it is a young squad that will likely play its best ball down the stretch. Despite its youth Washington is the top free throw shooting team in the conference and with only one senior on the team this looks like a program to reckon with in years to come on the national stage.
Washington: All of Washington’s losses have come by slim margins but like Arizona, the Huskies could not win in Corvallis with the largest defeat of the season coming in a 68-56 loss at Oregon State. Washington is undefeated at home this season but the Huskies also lack a high quality out-of-conference win. With four conference losses Washington does not have a great margin for error in the remainder of league play even with that looks like an expanding soft bubble. Non-conference losses to Kentucky, Michigan State, and Texas A&M will not be particularly damaging unless the Huskies slide and would fall into a profile face off with the Aggies or Spartans, two other teams that are sitting close to the edge of the NCAA tournament picture. UCLA currently is ahead of Washington in the league standings but Washington won in Los Angeles and with a home date ahead Washington has the opportunity to take over the second spot, with an upset at Arizona this weekend being a chance to become the top team in the league. The final three games of the season are at home so Washington should enter the postseason with some momentum and this is a team that has quality tournament experience and should be a threat to win a game or two in the NCAA tournament just like last season.
UCLA: The Bruins have a couple of less desirable non-conference losses from early in the year, falling to Virginia Commonwealth and Montana but both of those teams have gone on to have good seasons to soften the ratings hit for UCLA. The Bruins also lost to Villanova and Kansas but those losses will help the cause for UCLA’s tournament bid. The big chip that the Bruins have is a win over BYU in favorable but non-home setting in mid-December. The Bruins have three losses in Pac-10 play, losing once each to Washington and Arizona, and the third loss came at USC, a miss that is not nearly as damaging as the Oregon State loss that the Huskies and Wildcats have on the resume. When the committee looks at how UCLA is playing down the stretch, chances are they will like what they see in terms of the last ten or last 15 games. UCLA currently has won ten of the last eleven games and while the remaining schedule includes both Arizona and Washington again there is a good chance that UCLA can finish up strong even with a few tough road games. UCLA has been playing dominant defense of late and the Bruins will be a tough first round match-up for many teams with that intensity and this is a team that no one will want to see in a likely 8-9 or 7-10 opening round match-up, especially if the Bruins draw a western venue.
Washington State looks like the only other team to make a case for inclusion with a 17-9 record on the season while sitting alone in fourth place in the conference at 7-7. The Cougars do not have any particularly bad losses to inferior teams and wins over Gonzaga and Baylor will help the cause. The Cougars have a very difficult remaining schedule so it seems unlikely that Washington State will get the finish it needs to be a sure tournament team but with few standout teams on the bubble, one solid upset down the stretch and a decent conference tournament run might be enough. Washington State has not been consistent enough to be considered a serious threat to do damage in the NCAA tournament but this is a team that plays a unique style and is rarely blown out so they may be in position to give the Pac-10 even more credibility with the right match-up. With some of the bigger conferences looking at a high number of seeds including double-digits for the Big East the Pac-10 may not get a lot of respect entering the tournament but the teams that enter the postseason will be viable threats to win multiple games in late March.