PAC 10 Tournament Preview
By Marc Lawrence
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR:
California, Arizona State, Washington and USC
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
In the eight-year history of this tournament, there have been six different winners. CALIFORNIA isn't one of them. Could this be the Bears' turn? Cal was one-and-done last year but led by guards Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher, the only returnees from last year's All Pac-10 first team, this year's regular season champs are in good hands. Naysayers will remind us of Cal's 6-8 SUATS mark away from campus. While it's true the Berkeley Bears did most of their damage at home this season (15-1 SU and 11-4 ATS), we'll point to their 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS mark as tourney favs - a role they'll be in from the opening tip. ARIZONA STATE has won just two of nine tourney games but those wins came last season before an eventual title loss to USC. The Sun Devils have grabbed the cash in three of their last four tourney affairs but their 0-5 ATS record as dogs this season could spell trouble. They will also need to improve on their 4-12 ATS mark against a foe off a SU win this season if they hope to go deep. WASHINGTON last appeared in the title game in 2005 and their 4-7 SU and ATS record away or on a neutral court this season, including 0-4 ATS as dogs, suggests a longer wait. Yes, the $$$-burning Huskies have certainly played like dogs when taking points this season. Picked to finish last in the preseason polls, USC has once again proved the scribes wrong. The Trojans were an airtight 9-2 ATS as a dog but a soft 5-12-1 ATS as a favorite. Defensive grit makes them dangerous.
THE SLEEPER: UCLA
Like most teams in this loop, it was a lean year for the Bruins. With only one starter back from last year's 26-win team, Ben Howland's youngsters simply could not sustain success, going 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in conference when playing off a win. A full season of experience, along with Howland's glittering 34-15 SU mark in post-season play, makes for a solid double-dose of anticipation. Don't forget this: UCLA was 5-0 ATS against conference foes off back-to-back wins this season.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: Play On USC as a dog
No team in this history of this league has won more conference tournament games (10) than the Trojans. Half of those wins were in underdog roles, including twice last year en route to winning this event. Only Princeton and Wisconsin allowed fewer points per game in Division 1 than the Trojans (57.2). All good reasons for USC to add to its sparkling 7-2 ATS mark as a puppy in this tourney.
Pac 10 Tournament Preview
Rocketman Sports
The Pac 10 has caught a lot of flack for being down this year and deservedly so. There isn ' t one dominant team in the league that looks to be a threat to make it to the Final Four. California is however the best team in this conference and have to be regarded as the favorites. They won the regular season crown going 13-5 in conference play, finishing one game ahead of Arizona State. Arizona State could pose some problems for Cal but they did lose both meetings during the year. ASU is 22-9 but in watching them a few weeks ago against Cal, they simply seemed overmatched.
The only other team to post more than 20 wins overall is the Washington Huskies. Washington won a majority of their games in the friendly confines of their home court which is a very tough place to play in Seattle. They struggled mightily away from home and it will be a big test for them to play in Los Angeles on a neutral floor against the likes of California and Arizona State. The Arizona Wildcats round out the list of teams that finished with an above .500 record in conference action, going 10-8. However, they are just 16-14 overall and have failed to show that they are a consistent winning team that should be taken seriously in this tournament. After Arizona there is a tremendous drop off in terms of talented teams. Perennial powerhouse UCLA finished just 8-10 in the Pac 10 and 13-17 overall. It looks as if the Bruins will not be headed to the post-season unless Ben Howland can find a magic potion to make his team to be competitive against the likes of California, Arizona State, and Washington.
Cal has shown to be the most consistent team in this conference and have beaten the top tier teams in the league at least once this year. They are undoubtedly the team to beat but that ' s not to say they aren ' t susceptible to an upset. Arizona State has enough scoring power to take out Cal despite failing to beat them in the regular season. Washington has to prove they can win away from home as they were manhandled on the road by California. Arizona will have to play perfect basketball in order to have any chance to take home the Pac 10 Conference Tournament crown and after them, there really are no threats or dark horses that are capable of winning this tournament, Cal is the best team and has beaten the other top teams and boast the most impressive resume for an at-large bid should they stumble in the conference tournament.