Pick Wiz Plays 1/4 ADD

Portland @ Golden State -16

Golden State has won the last two meetings by 45 and 23 points and Damian Lillard played in those games. He has missed four straight games and is doubtful tonight. To make matters worse, Portland is the third-worst team in the NBA for points allowed (111 PPG). They haven't held Golden State to less than 125 in the last four meetings and with or without Lillard, this one has blowout written all over it. The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13, which has the line a lot lower than I think it should be if not for that poor run. Add into the equation that the Warriors have covered in 20 of the last 26 meetings at home in this series, and I'm in, heavy.

Trends:

Portland:

6-20 ATS in their last 26 games at Golden State
1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Pacific division
1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record

Golden State:

7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game
20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday games

PICK: Warriors -16
8 Unit

Miami @ Sacramento -8.5

This game honestly wasn't on my radar until I woke up and saw my service had this game circled and limited the wager amount to $250 (for the time being). Any time I see this, I always look under the hood to find out why. In this case the reason is simple... no Whiteside, which means Cousins is in for a big game. The Heat have gone 1-5 L5 following a SU loss and have the same 1-4 record in L5 when facing a team that allowed 100+ pts in their previous game. It also bears mentioning they'er on a six game skid right now. The Kings on the other hand are on the fringe of a playoff spot and 5-2 ATS L7. The home team in the series is 6-2 in L8. All this combined, this puts me on the Kings as soon as the limits are lifted on my site (still circled as of the time of this post; if it remains limited... get in on the **live line as soon as a reasonable opportunity allows).

**On the topic of live lines... I manged to limit damage last-night by playing the 2H line on Min. Anytime we have a decent fav as in the case of the T-Wolves last night and they're down by a significant number at half... get on the 2H line for equal units. Last night the Wolves were 4.5pt favs and found themselves down by 13 (I think it was) at half. The 2H line was -6.5, saying it was questionable they'd even make it a game. Huh? While the game might look out of hand, you can always count of a fav of that extend to make a 2H run, even if they don't cover the over-all line.

PICK: Sacramento -8.5
8 Unit

BOL