Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, March 15, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Penn Quakers plus the points versus Kansas.
Revenge time for the Penn Quakers who were on the wrong side of a 105-59 smack-down at the hands of the mighty Kansas Jayhawks, way back in January of 2000! Just kidding about the payback, but it is curious to me of all the number one seeds versus the sixteen seeds, this Penn-Kansas line is the lowest!?!?
That tells me that the oddsmakers know that this Quakers team is NOT going to be an easy out. Heck, I have a friend in the industry that claimed the other night over a few beers that he thinks this will be the first time a #16 upsets a #1 in NCAA history. I don't know all about that, but I do think Penn plus the points is the way to go, as the matchups here sure look like the Jayhawks will have their hands full dispatching of the pesky Quakers.
Penn has covered in 6 of their last 8 games, and the Ivy League rep in the Big Dance has been able to cover 6 of their 8 tries since 2013 in the underdog role. True, Kansas is on an impressive 14-games straight up winning streak, and in the end they will have enough firepower to put Pennsylvania in their rear-view mirror, but I don't expect it to be enough to cover the Vegas impost.
Go ahead and take the points with the Ivy rep, as they make it a money-making 7-2 in the dog role since the 2013 Dance.
3* PENN
Tommy Brunson
Hot-Wildcats versus Hot-Wildcats to tip-off the night session in Boise this opening Thursday of the Big Dance, and I will grab the points with the underdog from Davidson.
Both Davidson and Kentucky just won their conference tournaments this past Sunday, and while both were impressive in doing so, definitely wish to take the savvy Bob McKillop and his Wildcats out for a long look in this potential first-round upset over the young Wildcats from the Bluegrass State.
Kellan Grady has become a force in the lineup for Davidson, and Peyton Aldridge remains the dangerous threat that he has always been. The bottom line is Davidson is a peaking team that is capable of winning this game outright if John Calipari's young 'Cats become unnerved, and the fact they are on a 15-4 spread run their last 19 games should serve plenty notice to Big Blue here on Thursday night.
Both teams average right at 76+ points per game for the year, while Davidson is allowing just about 3-points per game less. The Wildcats from North Carolina also shoot 10% better from the free-throw line, so getting about 3-baskets is sure enticing. Especially when you consider that the Wildcats from Kentucky will likely be playing once again without forward Jared Vanderbilt who remains bothered by that ankle injury.
Close, close, close one tonight between Davidson and Kentucky.
Take the points.
4* DAVIDSON
Jimmy Boyd
Mar 15 '18, 7:10 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Davidson vs Kentucky
Play on: Davidson +5½ -110 at pinnacle
Free Pick on Davidson +
Jack Jones
Mar 15 '18, 9:50 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | Montana vs Michigan
Play on: Michigan -10½ -110 at YouWager
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Michigan -10.5
The Michigan Wolverines are clear Final Four contenders in my opinion. The way they finished the season by going 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS over their final nine games was mighty impressive. They beat the top three teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9) during this stretch.
This is a reasonable price to lay here with Michigan against Montana. This is a Montana team that lost by 13 at Penn State and by 16 at Stanford in non-conference play. There’s no doubt that Michigan is far and away the best team they will have faced all season.
Michigan does a lot of its damage from the 3-point line, attempting 25 per game at a 36.9% clip, including 37.5% in road games. Well Montana’s biggest weakness is giving up 35.9% shooting on 3-pointers this season and 37.3% shooting in road games. I don’t believe the Grizzlies defend well enough to stay competitive in this game.
Montana is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Wolverines are 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games. They have been a very difficult team to prepare for in these tournament games because of John Beilein’s quirky defense, which surrenders just 63.5 points per game and 43% shooting this season. Bet Michigan Thursday.
Mike Williams
Mar 15 '18, 3:10 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Loyola-Chicago vs Miami-FL
Play on: Loyola-Chicago +1½ -102 at 5Dimes
1* on Loyola-Chicago +1½ -102
Marc Lawrence
Mar 15 '18, 7:05 PM in 10h
NBA | Raptors vs Pacers
Play on: Pacers +4 -108 at 5Dimes
Play - Indiana Pacers (Game 702).
Edges - Pacers: 10-3 SUATS last 13 overall games… Raptors: 2-7 ATS L9 games in this series… With the Pacers looking to avenge a 5-point loss at Toronto in their last meeting in December, look them to improve to 17-7 ATS at him in conference games this season. We recommend a 1* play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.
Teddy Covers
Mar 15 '18, 3:10 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Loyola-Chicago vs Miami-FL
Play on: Miami-FL -2 -105 at 5Dimes
Take Miami-Fl (#736)
What happens when the betting markets fall in love with an underdog? Simple – you end up with a pointspread like this one, where #6 seed Miami is only a two point favorite as I write this over #11 seed Loyola- Chicago. Quite frankly, that pointspread is too low.
Betting markets focus on statistical profiles. The Ramblers have an impressive statistical profile. They rank in the Top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage from both two point range and three point range. And Loyola ranks in the Top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency; putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. Throw in a 28-5 SU record and you can understand why wiseguys have been flocking to the Ramblers in early betting action.
What happens when the betting markets don’t have much of a sample size for mid-majors as they step up in class? Simple – any win they notched against a quality foe gets factored into the equation like it was a HUGE deal. Loyola played one true ‘step-up-in-class’ game all year. They won that game SU, at Florida, a win that looks great on their resume and ‘Proves’ they can hang with quality foes.
Of course, bettors are loathe to go back and do some research to figure out HOW Loyola won that game. The answer there is simple too – Florida was as flat as a pancake, coming off HUGE games against Duke and Florida State, the Seminoles game coming just 48 hours earlier. Sure, Loyola notched an impressive road win, but it’s not a win that convinces me the Ramblers are capable of winning ‘step-up’ games in March.
It’s surely worth noting that INCLUDING the win at Florida, Loyola’s non-conference strength of schedule ranked #315 in the country. It’s also worth noting that the Missouri Valley Conference was WAY down this year, especially compared to what it was when Wichita State and Creighton stood at the top of the league.
Miami has a size advantage at every position on the floor in this ballgame. Jim Larranaga’s squad has been wildly inconsistent this year – typical of fairly young teams with only one senior starter. But make no mistake about it – Miami has certainly stepped up well for their biggest games, including SU wins away from home as underdogs at North Carolina and at Notre Dame in recent weeks. Look for wiseguy darling Loyola to come up short against a Hurricanes team still searching for betting market respect. Take Miami-FL.
Larry Ness
Mar 15 '18, 10:05 PM in 13h
NBA | Cavs vs Blazers
Play on: Blazers -4½ -115 at BMaker
My 1* Free Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:05 EST).
Cleveland has split the first four games of its current six game road trip, most recently smashing Phoenix 129-107. The Cavs are in fourth in the East, seven games back of Boston for second place.
LeBron James was a standout in the victory over the Suns with 28 points, 13 boards and 11 assists.
James and company though have struggled against elite competition this year and you’d be harder pressed to find a hotter team than the Blazers right now, as Portland comes into this one having won ten straight.
Most recently the Blazers torched the Heat 115-99 on Monday night. Damian Lillard led the way with 32 points and ten assists, while Jusuf Nurkic added 27 points and 16 boards.
I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games against teams with winning home records, while Portland is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games overall and 6-0 ATS in its last six when playing on two or more days of rest.
I expect the home side to be focused on the task at hand this evening.
Good luck…Larry
Red Dog Sports
Mar 15 '18, 7:35 PM in 11h
NHL | Penguins vs Canadiens
Play on: Canadiens +168 at BMaker
Montreal +168
Montreal is always dangerous at home in front of their fans. They are down this year but the Penguins can be beaten on the road. Nice value on the Canadiens at home at +168.
Bobby Conn
Mar 15 '18, 2:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Pennsylvania vs Kansas
Play on: Kansas -13½ -107 at 5Dimes
1* Free Play on Kansas -13½ -107
Ray Monohan
Mar 15 '18, 9:40 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | Buffalo vs Arizona
Play on: Buffalo +9 -115 at BMaker
Buffalo +9
Grabbing the points with the MAC Champions is worthy of a move here.
Buffalo was consistently the top team in the MAC this season as they play with such an aggressive style.
The Wildcats have had a lot of drama surrounding them as well, which could result in some distractions. That isn't what you want against this Buffalo team, that will keep their foot on the gas all night long.
Buffalo has averaged 85 points per game this season, a mark that can certainly allow them to compete.
Some trends to note. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bulls are 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.
Grab the points here.
Back Buffalo.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Doug Upstone
Mar 15 '18, 4:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-B | South Dakota State vs Ohio State
Play on: UNDER 147 -110
On Thursday at the Big Dance, Play Under on neutral court teams when the total is between 140 and 149.5 points like SOUTH DAKOTA STATE, in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by eight or more PPG, after allowing 85 points or more. In the past 21 years, this situation is 50-14!
Sal Michaels
Mar 15 '18, 2:45 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Iona vs Duke
Play on: Duke -19½ -110 at BMaker
Free Play on Duke -19½ -110
Scott Spreitzer
Mar 15 '18, 12:15 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Oklahoma vs Rhode Island
Play on: Oklahoma +2 -104 at 5Dimes
We have an opinion on Oklahoma plus the points over Rhode Island in early action on Thursday. Like most others, we agree that the Sooners should not have received an invitation to the Big Dance and its quite disappointing that a team that finished on slides of 2-8 SU and 4-11 SU could be installed as a 10-seed. Having said that, the Rams certainly have not been tearing things up down the stretch winning just four of their final eight games. URI also doesn't have the luxury that Big-12 teams enjoyed, they won't be facing Trae Young and company for a second time. Big-12 teams seemed to figure out the Sooner attack and OU didn't have an answer. But URI has only seen them on video...advantage Sooners. Call this a shot at rebirth for Oklahoma and I do believe they'll be focused knowing that they have a lot to prove. They'll face a Rams' team ranked 244th in field goal percentage allowed (45.1 percent). URI has made less than 39 percent of their own FGA in their last five games, while shooting just 57.5 percent from the free throw line. Finally, the Rams took an average of 25.8 3-point attempts over the last five games, making just 8.4. The selection committee not only did the Sooners a huge favor by placing them in the Dance, but also gave them a beatable opponent. I have an opinion on the OU Sooners plus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.