Playoff Cheat Sheet
By ASAWins.com
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
The Spurs won three of the four meetings this year. Utah won the most recent meeting on Apr. 9, though Duncan, Parker, and Ginoblili all sat out that game for San Antonio. That was the only meeting that Utah was able to hold the high-octane Spurs below 100 points (San Antonio averaged 108 points in the three victories). The Spurs have the best record in the NBA and have the top-rated offensive team based on offensive efficiency. They are HOT too. They've won 10 straight and are 21-2 since March 21st. During the recent 10-game win streak, San Antonio has averaged 114.7 points per game and hasn't scored fewer than 105 points. They are extremely deep with Manu Ginobli coming off the bench and nobody averaging over 30 minutes played per game except for Tony Parker. Unlike previous years, the Spurs like to run on offense as evidenced by ranking 7th in pace of play. This isn't a good matchup for the Jazz, who snuck in as the No. 8 seed in the West. They haven't had the luxury of resting players like San Antonio has. They are a relatively young team led by forwards Al Jefferson (19.4 PPG) and Paul Milsap (16.6 PPG). Offensively the Jazz can put up points, as they ranked 4th in points per game this season and 6th in offensive efficiency. But defensively they rank just 20th in points allowed and 19th in defensive efficiency. They were the third best rebounding team in the league (SA was 9th), so if they can control the boards and manage to knock down some three pointers (where they ranked 27th this season), they could compete.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Oklahoma City took three of four from Dallas this season (2-2 ATS), including the most recent two games. And outside of a 206-point total on Dec. 29, this has been a relatively low-scoring series with no other games topping 187 points (3-1 UNDER). OKC is led by two of the best young players in the game, Kevin Durant (28.0 PPG) and Russell Westbrook (23.5 PPG) with a strong contribution from James Harden (16.8 PPG) off the bench. Harden has been cleared to play after being diagnosed with a concussion last Sunday. The Thunder are ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency and they like to push the pace with the 3rd most possessions per game. They rank 17th in points allowed and 10th in defensive efficiency and are led by the top shot-blocker in the league Serge Ibaka (3.7-bpg). They were in line for the #1 seed but sputtered to a 7-7 finish (5-9 ATS) which is disheartening for Thunder fans. The defending NBA champion Mavericks barely make it into the playoffs this year as a #7 seed. They are a year older and not as deep as there were last year. The free agent signing of Lamar Odom didn't work out as he was ruled unavailable for the remainder of the season. They struggled offensively and were average defensively. They ranked 19th in points per game and 22nd in offensive efficiency. Defensively they were 12th in points allowed and 8th in defensive efficiency. On paper, they don't match up well against the younger and more vibrant OKC Thunder team, but anything can happen with veteran Dirk Nowitzki leading the charge.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
The Lakers took three of four against Denver this season (2-2 ATS), including the most recent meeting on Apr. 13 (103-97). Los Angeles held the high-scoring Denver offense to just 93.5 points per game in the four games (10.6 points below Denver's season average). That resulted in all four meetings remaining UNDER the total. However, now Los Angeles will be without its top defender for six games as Metta World Peace serves his suspension for elbowing James Harden last weekend. That's terrible news for the Lakers as Denver likes to use a smaller lineup and World Peace could serve as the power forward in a smaller lineup defensively. Now the high-octane Nuggets could have a big advantage and tire out a thin Lakers lineup. Denver is the league’s highest scoring team and ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency. They have five players averaging double-figures and they are very difficult to key on player. However, they counter with a terrible defense. The Nuggets are 29th in points allowed and 21st in defensive efficiency (worst defensive team in the playoffs). The Lakers are playing well offensively with the emergence of Andrew Bynum. They are 15th in points per game and 10th in offensive efficiency. They were 15th in points allowed and 13th in defensive efficiency, but as stated before, they'll miss World Peace on the defensive end. The Lakers have the slight edge because they have Kobe Bryant and they've "been there before." But Denver, winners of four straight and 11 of the last 15, is the hotter team and we wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Memphis is hot entering the playoffs and is the trendy longshot because of its upset of the Spurs as the eighth seed a season ago. The Clippers took two of three in the season series, but Memphis won the latest matchup on April 9th, the first meeting with forward Zach Randolph back from injury. The Grizzlies really took off once Randolph got settled back in the lineup from injury. They've now won six straight games and 16 of the last 20 overall. This is a stronger defensive team than a year ago. Memphis ranks 5th in points allowed and 7th in defensive efficiency. They have arguably the best on-ball defender in the league in Tony Allen and two other dynamic defensive athletes in forward Rudy Gay and center Marc Gasol. For the season, Memphis ranked 20th in points per game and 19th in offensive efficiency, but they are much better with Randolph in the lineup. The Clippers recovered from a mid-season slump to secure the #5 seed in the West. They've been extremely inconsistent all season long and a strong 13-2 run was marred by a 1-3 finish to the season. LAC ranked 14th in points per game but a strong 4th in offensive efficiency, thanks mostly to PG Chris Paul, who brought balance and leadership to this young lineup. They have one of the top young stars in Blake Griffin (20.7 PPG and 10.9 RPG) but still struggle a bit defensively. They rank 13th in points allowed and 18th in defensive efficiency.
Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Chicago is 2-1 both SU and ATS in the season series and was favored in all three games. The most recent meeting on Mar. 17 resulted in a Bulls (-4) 89-80 win. The Bulls won without Rose in that game and a big reason was the +14 rebound margin for Chicago. Rebounding will be a key factor in this series as the Bulls hold a huge advantage over the 76ers in this category. Chicago is 1st in offensive and defensive rebounding while the Sixers are 22nd in ‘O’ rebs and 16th in ‘D’ rebounding. Both are very good defensively overall as the Bulls rank 1st in defensive efficiency with the 76ers close behind in 3rd. Offensively the Bulls are much better ranking 5th in offensive efficiency, 76ers are 18th. In the three meetings this season the ‘over’ is 2-1 with total points scored of 180, 187 and 169. Don’t expect Philly to score from beyond the arc as they were just 8 of 35 from the 3-point line in the three meetings this season. Chicago has the 4th best home differential rating in the NBA at +8.1 ppg but the 76ers were the 6th best road differential team in the league at +1.4 ppg. It appears the 76ers played much better down the stretch of the regular season on the road by going 6-3 SU their last nine away but in reality only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. Chicago won 8 of their last eleven at home and five of those victories came by double digits. In the end Chicago wins this series and does it in 5 games.
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Miami won all three meetings this season by an average of 10.7 points per game (2-1 ATS). New York failed to score more than 89 points in each of the meetings. All three meetings finished UNDER the total at an average of 185.3 points per game. In fact, the last five meetings dating back to last season have all finished UNDER the total. Miami won the latest meeting on April 15th by eight points. The Big Three scored 73 of the 93 Heat points. Carmelo kept the Knicks close with 42 points, but JR Smith was the only other Knick to score double digits with 16 points. Despite the Knicks seemingly having a size advantage inside (with Tyson Chandler and Amare Stoudemire), Miami was able to out-rebound them in all three meetings this season. Miami was strong on the boards all season, ranking 6th in the NBA in rebound differential. They have a strong edge there as New York ranks 16th. The Heat also have a slight advantage on offense as they were 7th in points per game & offensive efficiency this season. The Knicks ranked 11th and 17th in points per game and offensive efficiency, respectively. These two ranked 4th (Miami) and 5th (New York) in defensive efficiency, though the Knicks allowed 2.2 more points per game. One conceivably big advantage working in the Knicks' favor is that Miami was awful at defending the three, ranking 26th this season. New York has the top three point shooter in the NBA in Steve Novak (47% this season!) and a number of streaky shooters that have shown the ability to catch fire from beyond the arc (JR Smith, Baron Davis, Anthony). Miami only had five home losses this season and boasted the 2nd best home differential rating this season at +10.9 points per game. But New York enters as the hotter team, on a 9-3 SU & ATS run to end the season while the Heat sputtered to an 11-9 SU and 9-11 ATS finish in the final 20 games.
Indiana Pacers vs. Orlando Magic
Orlando was 3-1 in the season series, including a win in the most recent meeting back on Mar. 11. The road team won three of the four meetings and Indiana was 0-2 at home. However, all of this seems irrelevant now that Orlando will be without center Dwight Howard. Orlando was 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS without Howard this season. The Magic ranked 7th in points per game allowed, however they are much worse without Howard. In 13 games without their star center, the Magic surrendered 98.4 points per game. That's 6.3 more points per game than the 53 games with Howard. Overall, Orlando is rated 13th in defensive efficiency. But that numbers also drops considerably with Howard not playing. Orlando isn't going to outscore many teams either sans Howard. Orlando is 15th in offensive efficiency and 21st in points per game. Indiana features a lineup with four players averaging double figures, led by Danny Granger (18.7 PPG). The Pacers ranked 13th in the league at 97.7 PPG and 7th in offensive efficiency. Defensively they were 9th in points allowed and defensive efficiency. They are hot entering this series as well, winning 12 of the final 15 games with a 9-6 mark ATS. Most people expect the Pacers to win this series easily now that Orlando is without its best player.
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Boston won two of the three meetings this season, all coming on Mar. 19 and after. It was an extremely close series as the margin of victory never exceeded five points. All three were also very low-scoring affairs, combining to average just 172.7 points. Even with one of the games finishing in overtime (2-1 UNDER). Technically Atlanta will be the #5 seed but will have home-court advantage in this series. Atlanta has done a great job without their top rebounder and inside presence Al Horford, as he has missed most of the season with an injury (Horford is not expected to play in this series). Atlanta has the edge offensively here, as the Hawks ranked 16th in offensive efficiency compared to 24th for the Celtics. Boston, however, has the defensive edge. The Celtics allowed just 89.3 points per game this season and ranked first in defensive efficiency. The Hawks weren't far behind, surrendering 93.2 points per game and ranking 6th in defensive efficiency. Boston is looking to make one final run with their Big Three +1 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce and Rondo) and they are the hotter team right now. The Celts have won 14 of the last 19 games and are 13-4-2 ATS over that stretch. Look for this to be a low-scoring, possession by possession grind out series.
Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Predictions
Sportspic.com
Online Betting players that follow the NBA are getting themselves jacked up for the playoffs after a congested regular season, and the Eastern Conference is very top-heavy. There is a sizable gap between the top four teams in the conference (you could even argue just three, excluding Indiana) and the rest, and that will be evident as the favorites have the edge to progress to the second round.
Bulls vs 76ers
For the Bulls, it’s all about health as Derrick Rose suffered a number of ailments this season that caused him to miss time, and it’s a catch-22 because he should have fresh legs, but he’ll also be a little behind in terms of game speed, although it shouldn’t take him long to get into the swing of things. This is a meeting of two strong defensive teams as the Bulls top the league in points against, while the 76ers are third.
Philadelphia definitely cooled off in the second half of the regular season, and they’ll have to hold their own on the offensive glass, where the Bulls averaged 3.2 more boards per game than the 76ers. Chicago was 2-1 SU and ATS against the 76ers in the regular season, and they should get through the first round with minimal fuss.
Betting Edge: Chicago Bulls
Heat vs Knicks
You may not find a better one-on-one matchup in the first round than New York’s Carmelo Anthony and Miami’s LeBron James, who have had some memorable duels in the past. Anthony put the Knicks on his back offensively down the stretch, and we all know what James, who is likely going to win his third MVP award, can do at both ends of the court. The gap in defense isn’t that great anymore as Tyson Chandler has shored up New York, and this is going to be a tougher test for the Heat than many NBA betting sharps expect.
The Heat were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against the Knicks this season, and unless Amare Stoudemire has the series of his life against Chris Bosh, Miami should win handily.
Betting Edge: Miami Heat
Pacers vs Magic
This would be a much closer matchup if Dwight Howard was on the court for the Magic, even with everything that has gone on off the court between Howard and coach Stan Van Gundy, but a back injury has grounded “Superman” and now the Magic are just another team. The Pacers have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA all season, and they’re a balanced team with five players averaging in double figures for scoring. Danny Granger is still the go-to guy in Indiana, but the Pacers can also go with Roy Hibbert, who should be able to have his way in the post against the Magic, or Paul George, who has been a revelation.
The Magic were 3-1 SU and ATS against the Pacers during the regular season, but with Howard out of the lineup (and reportedly away from the team, which is a story that will raise its head during this series), Indiana is the better team and if they can slow down the Magic’s three-point shooters, this will be a rout.
Betting Edge: Indiana Pacers
Celtics vs Hawks
Many NBA betting fans and experts alike counted out the Celtics early in the season, but the old warriors paced themselves and romped down the stretch; they were definitely the best team in the East and probably the best in the entire league. Rajon Rondo is one of the top three point guards in the NBA, while Kevin Garnett is playing like the guy who came to Boston in 2007. This anchors a defense that is second overall in points allowed. Paul Pierce is playing at a high level and Avery Bradley has picked up the slack for a limping Ray Allen. The Hawks received a boost as Al Horford should be able to suit for the team for the first time in over three months due to a torn pectoral muscle, and they’ll need him to combat Garnett in the post because Josh Smith has been playing out of position for much of the season.
The Celtics are 2-1 SU and ATS in their three regular-season meetings with Atlanta, and unless Joe Johnson has an MVP-type series, the Hawks are going to struggle to score points against Boston, and Rondo is primed for a big series against Jeff Teague. Boston is the smart sports betting choice.
Betting Edge: Boston Celtics
NBA Betting: Western Conference Playoff Betting Tips
Sportspic.com
The NBA playoffs are finally here, and while the first round isn’t always the most exciting time on the basketball calendar, the parity in the Western conference is much stronger than in the East, and that has provided Sports Betting fans with what is undoubtedly the most exciting matchup of the opening round on paper. The defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks overcame the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder in last year’s Western conference finals en route to their NBA title, but will now tip off against them as the underdogs in the first round. The Mavericks still have some of the veteran pedigree that helped them win the title a year ago, but this time around it’s the Thunder with more weapons to lean on, as we take a quick look at the opening round.
San Antonio vs. Utah
Winners of five-straight games to close out the regular season, the Jazz secured a playoff berth playing every sports bet contest like it was already the postseason, and that should have them ready for the Spurs in the opening round. San Antonio was in no danger of missing out on the postseason but still won an incredible 10-straight to close out their schedule and secure home advantage throughout the playoffs. The Spurs won 28 of their 33 home games this season to tie the Miami Heat for the best home record in the NBA, and with a rejuvenated Tim Duncan and Tony Parker continuing to play at an elite level, head coach Greg Popovich’s team should have enough to at least get through the opening round, with a focus on getting the job done as quick as possible to have time to rest.
NBA Betting Pick: Spurs in Five
Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
With no Tyson Chandler or JJ Barea, the Mavericks aren’t nearly as deep as they were a year ago, and MVP Dirk Nowitzki isn’t playing at the same level either. The Thunder on the other hand appear to be firing on all cylinders with Russell Westbrook emerging as a legitimate All Star and Kevin Durant an MVP candidate. The potential loss of James Harden will force Oklahoma City in to a longer series than they want, but unless Nowitzki suddenly rediscovers his 2011 playoff form the Thunder should be able to get through to the next round.
NBA Betting Pick: Thunder in Six
Los Angeles vs. Denver
The Lakers will be without Metta World Peace for the opening round, and while that makes this series more competitive than it needs to be, Denver simply has no match for Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol down low. The Nuggets made the playoffs based on their strong team play as well as the focus and determination they showed in every game, but in the end they have no match for Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles big men.
NBA Betting Pick: Lakers In Four
Memphis vs. Los Angeles
One of the most interesting sportsbook matchups of the opening round features the high-flying Clippers against a powerful Memphis team that may be somewhat underrated heading in to the playoffs. The Grizzlies are built for the playoffs with some solid offensive depth and a defense that ranked fifth in the NBA in points allowed during the regular season. In contrast, the Clippers struggled with consistency all season despite Blake Griffin consistently making the highlight reel with his incredible dunks. Those won’t happen nearly as often in the playoffs though, as Memphis does all it can to close out the lanes.
NBA Betting Pick: Grizzlies In Six
Regular Season Results Overweighted
By Bryan Leonard
Playbook.com
The NBA playoffs are off and running. There are a lot of ways to analyze who has the edge, from matchups, key statistics (rebounding, turnovers), spread marks and even who’s hot and who’s not. One area that will also come up is how these playoff opponents did when they faced each other during the regular season.
I’m not a proponent of putting much stock in regular season meetings. This can get tricky for many reasons, one of which is situations. During the regular season, you find teams facing each other at the end of a long road trip. Of course the visiting team might not be up to their normal abilities if they’re facing a conference opponent at the end of a six-game road trip, for example. Another instance would be the second of a back to back situation, or if a team is playing its fourth game in five nights. Rested Team A may destroy Team B in that situation, but that doesn’t then give them an edge when the playoffs roll around.
Players don’t buy into this, either. I hear and read comments from players all the time where they talk about some regular season meeting three months ago and they brush it off with, “That game doesn’t mean anything as to how we’re going to approach this playoff game.” In addition, star players and even coaches are sometimes absent from regular season meetings.
The Nuggets and Lakers are playing in the first round. We may think of them as uptempo offenses (Denver sure is), but notice the under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Utah is playing San Antonio and the Jazz is 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio, plus the favorite is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
Last year the Celtics went 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Knicks during the regular season, including a game to end the regular season. However, you can’t read much into those games. The first two occurred very early in the season, long before the Knicks traded everyone to acquire Carmelo Anthony. And the last one took place in the final regular season game with BOTH teams resting their best players.
What’s far more important to look at is health and matchups. This season the Celtics are playing the Hawks and have health concerns, with Ray Allen not playing much while dealing with bone spurs. Celtics coach Doc Rivers said Allen is about "60 percent" to play after missing the past nine games with a sore right ankle. And Paul Pierce left last week's game against the Milwaukee Bucks with a sprained left big toe.
You can’t qualify a performance without a key player during the regular season when analyzing how they then matchup with a team in the postseason. Even teams change. Look at the Knicks. You can’t compare New York’s regular season meetings with many teams because they’ve dealt with key injuries to Amare Stoudamire and Jeremy Lin. In many ways, it isn’t even the same New York team that stumbled through the first half of the season.
There’s no better example of this than a playoff series between the Jazz and Kings a few years ago. During that regular season, the Kings went 4-0 SU/ATS against the Jazz, blasting them by frightful scores of 113-80, 114-90, 107-81, and 117-109. The two then met in the first round of the playoffs, and the Kings were 12 and 11 point favorites in the first two games, inflated numbers based largely on those four regular season meetings. Yet, the veteran Jazz, with Karl Malone and John Stockton, played extremely well in the playoffs, going 3-1 ATS. Sacramento won Game 1 89-86 then Utah won Game 2 on the road 93-86 as a +11 dog! Sacramento won three games in that series by 3, 3 and 5 points – so much for their regular season dominance!
NBA Playoff Trends
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
To the unsuspecting gambler, the NBA often times simply means 'Nothing But Agony'. To the informed, however, it represents a 'Nice Bankroll Advantage'.
Knowing the difference is half the battle. Having substantively sound edges in your favor is the other half, especially during the postseason.
With the 2011-12 NBA regular season now in the history books, let's take a look at how this season's 16 playoff participants have fared in the post season over the last 21 years.
Listed below is a chart containing each team’s overall SU (Straight-Up) and ATS (Against The Spread) performance record in all playoff games since 1991, along with a key best and worst playoff ATS trend for each team.
Let's have a look...
ATLANTA
Overall: 36-60 SU & 78-62-2 ATS
Best: 8-1 ATS as a home favorite greater than 4 points vs. an opponent off win
Worst: 1-14 SU & ATS away off loss 11 or fewer points.
BOSTON
Overall: 72-67 SU & 68-68-3 ATS
Best: 8-2 ATS away off 19-point or smaller loss
Worst: 1-12 ATS when favored by more than 2 points and off one win exact
CHICAGO
Overall: 124-62 SU & 78-62-2 ATS
Best: 7-1 ATS as an underdog off SU fave loss
Worst: 0-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite vs. an opponent off back-to-back wins
DALLAS
Overall: 65-62 SU & 65-59-3 ATS
Best: 10-1-1 ATS as a 3.5-point or larger road underdog
Worst: 1-9 ATS at home off win as an underdog of 3.5 or more points
DENVER
Overall: 23-43 SU & 30-51-1 ATS
Best: 5-0 ATS vs. opponent off 20 point or smaller loss
Worst: 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or larger vs. opponent off SU & ATS win
INDIANA
Overall: 81-76 SU & 85-66-6 ATS
Best: 7-0-1 ATS off a loss larger than 16 points
Overall: 0-5 ATS at home off an ATS win of 18 or more points
CLIPPERS
Overall: 11-14 SU & 12-13 ATS
Best: 4-0 ATS home off SU & ATS loss
Overall: 1-6 ATS away off SU & ATS win
LAKERS
Overall: 153-100 SU & 121-124-8 ATS
Best: 9-0 ATS as an 4.5-point or larger underdog off loss 14 or more points
Overall: 1-11 ATS off back to back losses, last one as a favorite
MEMPHIS
Overall: 7-18 SU & 10-14-1 ATS
Best: 4-1 ATS favorite off loss
Overall: 0-11 SU and 1-9-1 ATS if winning percentage is under .569
MIAMI
Overall: 71-68 SU & 65-70-4 ATS
Best: 10-1 ATS off double-digit loss in rounds two & three
Overall: 2-18 SU & 3-17 ATS in Round 1as a road dog of 2.5 or more points
NEW YORK
Overall: 72-71 SU & 73-67-3 ATS
Best: 14-2 ATS in Round 1 as a road dog less than 7 points
Overall: 0-4 ATS favorite larger than 5 points and off a loss
OKLAHOMA CITY
Overall: 63-67 SU & 59-68-3 ATS
Best: 11-3 ATS in Game 2 off a loss
Overall: 1-12 ATS off an ATS win of 15.5 or fewer points
ORLANDO
Overall: 56-62 SU & 51-63-4 ATS
Best: 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 8.5 or fewer points
Overall: 2-11 ATS as a favorite off SU loss as a favorite
PHILADELPHIA
Overall: 38-50 SU & 42-45-1 ATS
Best: 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog
Overall: 0-6 ATS Game 2 off loss of 5 or more points
SAN ANTONIO
Overall: 129-98 SU & 119-101-7 ATS
Best: 9-1 ATS in the Finals vs. an opponent off a win
Overall: 1-8 ATS as an underdog vs. an opponent off back to back SU & ATS losses.
UTAH
Overall: 94-94 SU & 100-86-2 ATS
Best: 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog
Overall: 0-4 ATS as an underdog smaller than 7 points and off loss of 19 or fewer points.
OPENING ROUND AWESOME ANGLE
Play on any home team in Game 3 of the opening round of the playoffs off one loss exact if they lost to the spread by 10 or fewer points in the loss.
Record since 1991: 16-3 SU and 17-2 ATS
There you have it. A study in progress of this year’s playoff teams and how they have fared in NBA postseason play since 1991… plus an awesome angle to strongly consider in the opening round.