Pointspread breakdown for Game 1 of NBA Finals
By Frank Doyle
Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle discusses Sports Interaction's line for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.
We opened with the Lakers as a 6-point home fave for Game 1 of the NBA Finals and we’re pretty happy with that. We’ve had the line up since the weekend and the action is balanced thus far.
Setting the Lakers as a favorite was a no-brainer. The Lakers are a public team and, when they bring their game, they’re pretty much unstoppable. The question wasn’t whether or not to make the Lakers favorites, but by how much.
No one has forgotten or forgiven the Lakers for losing to the Yao-and-McGrady-less Rockets when the Rockets for Game 4 of the Western semi-final. That sort of loss really shouldn’t be happening in the playoffs, but it did and fears of it happening again make oddsmakers cautious about giving the Lakers too many points.
On the other hand, it’s hard to be sure of how the public regards Orlando. Did Cleveland blow up, reach the end of the line, or is Orlando legitimate a contender?
The word had got out that the Magic were for real by Game 6 in the East final. We opened with Orlando -1.5 but that moved a full point to -2.5 by tip off. The public saw that the Cavs were overmatched and they swiftly moved to get behind a winner.
Eventually we settled on six points as the line for Thursday’s Finals opener. Home advantage is an automatic three, give the Lakers another point for being public, a fifth for being good and then a sixth point to make it a clear win without suggesting the Magic will get wiped.
One thing we learned from the East is that the Magic have a huge amount of fight in them. It’s hard to see them getting crushed in any game.
My own inclination is to back the Magic +6. The Lakers can be slow starters in a series and six points is a bit too tempting to resist for a team that’s showing as much heart as Orlando.