TEDDY COVERS
Loyola (MD) @ Rider Feb
PICK: Rider -5
Rider came into the season expecting to challenge Siena for the Metro Atlantic title. It didn’t happen. Their schedule was downright brutal, playing ten out of twelve games on the road over a seven week stretch in December and January. And once the losing started, there was a discernable drop in their confidence level. Even the MAAC preseason player of the year, Ryan Thompson, Jason Thompson’s (Sacramento Kings) brother fell victim to the slump.
Head coach Tommy Dempsey: “Our group as a whole wasn’t playing with a lot of confidence; it wasn’t just one individual. When we weren’t playing well, we weren’t playing hard enough, we weren’t playing with confidence on offense but we weren’t playing well on defense either. Everything was kind of snowballing because guys weren’t playing hard because they weren’t playing well.”
Over the last ten days, the Broncs have finally turned things around, winning three straight. During the three game winning streak, Thompson has been a monster: 68 points, 24 rebounds and 11 assists; the go-to-guy during crunch time, and the player everyone expected him to be as a senior. The entire team has responded to Thompson’s resurgence. Coach Dempsey: “I think we played our best game since opening night Saturday [an 88-80 victory over Fairfield].”
Loyola-Maryland beat Rider by a single bucket when these two teams met back in January. It was arguably Thompson’s worst game of the entire year, held to 1-10 shooting against the Greyhounds. Since that time, Loyola hasn’t been able to beat anybody except the hapless 1-21 Marist Red Foxes, a team that everybody beats. Look for Rider to continue their recent surge, and get their revenge over Loyola tonight. 2* Take Rider
Scott Rickenbach
New Jersey Nets @ Boston Celtics
PICK: New Jersey Nets +13
We played against the Celtics in a tough scheduling spot last Friday and we cashed our ticket with the Hawks. This Friday it is a much weaker team facing the Celtics but we know we’re getting a pile of points with the Nets and, once again, this is a tricky scheduling spot for the Celtics. Boston is off of a big home game versus Miami Wednesday and they have a big home game on deck as they host Orlando Sunday. That means that of all their games before the upcoming All-Star Break, this one is getting the least attention! The Celtics could easily overlook the Nets here as New Jersey has, by far, the worst record in the NBA.
This could prove to be a mistake for Boston because, as an example, just take a look at what the Nets did in the final week of January. They only went 1-2 but the two losses came by an average margin of just three points! On January 13th, the Nets were embarrassed by Boston and lost by 24 points. This leads to additional line value in this “rematch” as the Nets are going to be much more focused on this game than the “disinterested” Celtics. After beating the Nets on the 13th, the Celtics went just 2-6 the rest of the month and the two wins came by an average margin of just 4.5 points! Even their first win in the month of February was not as impressive as the final score shows as Boston had to pull away very late to put away the Wizards in Washington. Yes, the Nets are an ugly dog but they are the play in this match-up as the Celtics struggle to stay focused in this match-up. Consider a small play on New Jersey in the NBA Friday.
INSIDER ANGLES
The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season while the Rockets have been burning money lately, and we look for the Grizzlies to notch another handy home win here.
Memphis is 18-6 at home on the year and 12-1 in their last 13 games here, with the lone loss coming in overtime. The last time the Grizzlies played in FedEx Forum, they beat the mighty Los Angeles Lakers on Monday night. They had a natural letdown in their following game on the road at Cleveland on Tuesday, but with two days off since then and this return home, we look for the Grizzlies to put forth a top effort here.
The Rockets, on the other hand, are struggling, going 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games. They have dropped to 10-14 ATS on the road for the year after going just 1-7 vs. the number in their last eight games away from home, and they lost both visits to Memphis outright last season, and that was vs. a weaker Grizzlies team than this one.
Finally, there is a matter of revenge as the Rockets embarrassed the Grizzlies in their only other meeting this season 104-79 way back in November in Houston. However, both teams have changed considerably since then, and with Memphis being 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, this seems like an excellent spot to get some vengeance.
Look for the Grizzlies to cover thus number with relative ease en route to a double-digit win.
Pick: Grizzlies
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -2.5
The Suns are playing their best basketball since early in the season, and I look for it to continue in Sacramento this evening. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 Friday games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Kings are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Kings are just 2-16 in their last 18 games and I expect their struggles to continue tonight. Take the more talented Suns team playing better ball.
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Injuries affect spreads in Basketball drastically and I would bet these moves are because of injuries.
You can find injuries updated daily here
SPORTS WAGERS
SACRAMENTO +1.29 over Phoenix
The courts are the same size everywhere, the baskets are the same height, the basketballs are the same weight and size, yet almost every team struggles on the road and some, like the Kings, are two completely different teams home and away. The Kings are 13-11 at home and that record could easily be about 18-6 after OT losses at home to Cleveland and the Lakers, and a two-point loss to the Spurs among others. On the road the Kings are 3-21 and overall they’ve dropped four in a row and 11 of 12. Meanwhile, the Suns, after a prolonged funk appear to be back on track. They’ve won four straight with the last three coming on the road. As a result of all this the Suns stock is once again on the rise while the Kings stock has plummeted and that’s about the best time to step in. Phoenix will wrap up its four-game trip here and will be off for four full days before playing again on February 10. This is certainly a spot where they’re vulnerable and besides that, this Suns team is not one to be trusted laying road points anywhere. At home the Kings are energetic, sharp and play 1000 times better than they do on the road and absolutely have a great shot to get back on the winning track here against this extremely soft defense. Play: Sacramento +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +3/+1.31 over INDIANA
This scenario has played out too often to ignore, whereas a team opens up as a small favorite, the public starts hammering that favorite, yet the line comes down. The Pacers opened as a four-point choice and have taken a ton of money but this line has since dropped and that’s a strong sign that the Pistons are very live. It’s not easy to make a case for the Pistons, as their record is horrible and they’ve dropped five of six with only win over that span being a four-point victory over the putrid Nets. Meanwhile, the Pacers are coming off a 15-point win over the red-hot Raps in a game that lots of folks watched and subsequently ripped up their tickets when it was over. After seeing them lead from start to finish and putting away the Raps, how can they not hammer these Pistons? The NBA is loaded with games that look easy and those games seldom turn out well and this one has all the signs of falling into that trap. Play: Detroit +1.31 (Risking 1 unit) Play Detroit +3 (Risking 1.04 units to win 1).
Glenn McGrew
Detroit at Pacers
Indiana plays its 4th home game over the last 5 games. The Pacers have plenty of offense, and they catch a break against a Pistons club that struggles to score, second to last in the NBA in scoring (91 ppg) and shooting (43%). The Pistons are on a 2-6 SU, 2-5-1 ATS run and at 5-17 on the road. Play the Pacers.
Dan Bebe
MIN +10 vs DAL
Rather than re-type, let's start with the words from my NBA Daily Preview, and work from there:
"Uh oh, Dallas as a huge home favorite, again. Do we really need to get into all the details? I'll just start off by saying that something is going to really need to make me let go of the road dog in these games if I'm going to change my initial lean. I mean, come on. Dallas is 5-18 ATS at home, yet the public is going to love them just the same because, hell, they have Dirk Nowitzki! Minnesota is a clunker-team; nobody wants to play them, and for good reason. They stink. But we don't care about win or loss, we care about whether they can keep the game within reach. And given the fact that Minnesota shot 32.6% at home earlier this year in an ugly 89-77 loss to the Mavs, I think they'll come out ready to play. Numbers would dictate that the Mavs should win this home game by even more than those 12 points they laid on the Wolves up in Minnesota, but it just hasn't worked that way for Dallas this year. In fact, each of the last 3 times these teams have met in Dallas, the Mavs have won the game and lost ATS, and that was when Dallas was a strong home team. This year, they just seem two steps slow on defense, allowing over 100 points in, now, 5 straight games, all ATS losses. The Wolves have actually covered 2 straight games, both SU wins, as well, so they're playing with confidence, and I believe they will look at footage of their game with Dallas from November. That was an ugly performance, and this time around, the Wolves have had a rare 4-day break from basketball to get their legs back, get healthy, and get ready. I think they'll start slowly because of some sluggishness, so Dallas might surge ahead, but I think over the course of the game, the Wolves will start to gain strength while the Mavs start to tire a little. With Dirk Nowitzki playing through a sore thumb, the Mavs are going to need to get a lot of help and play some defense, and I just don't see all that happening."
The Mavs have been opposed to defense, lately, and the Wolves up-tempo style is going to create similar problems to the ones Dallas faced against the Warriors. The difference is that the Wolves can rebound. They don't have a phenom like Monta Ellis to collect 40+ points, but the Wolves have the ability to work the ball inside-out, and with the fresh legs, I expect them to get to the foul line, and outwork the Mavs on the offensive glass. I like this freebie quite a bit, enough to make it a 3/4-unit play.
Take the points with the road dogs!
MEM -5 vs HOU
This game came awfully close to making it as the Top Play, as well!
Memphis is a very strong home team right now, and I especially like the bevy of angles in this one.
The Grizzlies got a nice home win over the Lakers earlier this week, suffered the expected letdown the following night in Cleveland, and have had 2 days to regroup and prepare for the Rockets.
Houston beat Memphis by 25 earlier this year, and while it was indeed multiple months back, I believe there is a strong revenge angle at play. Memphis has turned the corner since then, jetting up the power rankings, and I believe that Memphis wants to show the Rockets that they're not going to be the Southwest conference whipping boy any more.
This spread is very short, but the public has been slow to let go of their love for the Rockets. Houston has done next to nothing to make them worth a bet lately. They beat just the Warriors and undermanned Blazers to go an embarrassing 2-4 on their recent homestand, and now we're expected to think they can hang with the Grizzlies on the road?
The Grizzlies have the home court edge and the revenge factor, and they're well-rested and angry. Take Memphis for a half unit!
King Creole
MIN +10 vs DAL
HOT T'Wolves vs the COLD Mavericks..... Minnesota comes in off a couple of DOUBLE DIGIT home wins... while Dallas has now gone 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games... and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 overall. This is a team that CANNOT be trusted as chalk of any kind lately. In fact, since late November..... DALLAS has gone an AMAZING 1-17 ATS as favorites of 5 or more points!
Tonight's game features a unique '4/1' REST advantage for the Timberwolves, who last played on Sunday night.
5-1 ATS this season: All NBA road teams playing with 4 or MORE days rest. And DOGS in this extended rest situation are 2-0 ATS on the season.
Let's hope tonight's line stays in the DOUBLE DIGIT range for the overpriced Mavericks.
0-3 ATS this season: All DOUBLE DIGIT home favs playing off 3 or more ATS losses in a row (Mavs).
1-8 ATS since November: All DOUBLE DIGIT favorites playing off a SU home win but an ATS loss in a game in which they were also a DD favorite (Mavs).
17-5 ATS this season: All NBA road teams playing off BB SU and ATS double-digit home wins (T'Wolves). And confident UNDERDOGS of 5 > points in this role have gone a PERFECT 6-0 ATS.
1-7 ATS this season: All NBA teams playing off 5 or more ATS losses in a row (Mavs)... versus any opponent off BB SU wins (T'WOLVES).
0-4-1 ATS since Jan 1st: All NBA favorites of > 5 points.... in their last HOME game before a 3+ game road trip (Mavs).
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Money moves lines, not # of bets or % of bets. What you should take away from this is money is moving the line against the public majority.
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Injuries affect spreads in Basketball drastically and I would bet these moves are because of injuries.
You can find injuries updated daily here
Yikes! - Earl Watson is out. He averages nearly 30 mins a game. The backup (Price) hasn't started a game all year and averages only 15 mins a game. I think I'll stay away, but the Hawks are still looking mighty tasty....
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Money moves lines, not # of bets or % of bets. What you should take away from this is money is moving the line against the public majority.
Is there a tool/spreadsheet/website etc. that shows the dollar amounts posted for each team as opposed to # of bets? Other than the obvious line moves this would seem hard to track. Last post, thanks again.
Blade/Cash,
Question: Eventhough the public is backing the Pacers (73%), the spread has moved down a point from -4 to -3. The same is the case for the Celtics (68%), Mavs (70%) and Phoenix (83%!!!). Typically, I would expect the line to move in the opposite direction? This appears to happen more frequently in the NBA. Is there something I'm missing here? Should I take warning ??? or is this just business as usual in regards to the NBA? I appreciate your insight and as always - thanks for everything.
Money moves lines, not # of bets or % of bets. What you should take away from this is money is moving the line against the public majority.
Is there a tool/spreadsheet/website etc. that shows the dollar amounts posted for each team as opposed to # of bets? Other than the obvious line moves this would seem hard to track. Last post, thanks again.
Post all you want slapaheel we are here to help eveyone what ever they might need.
No book would ever give out real figures for the dollar amount bet since it would be a indicator to their competitors what type of business they are doing.
Scott Delaney
Pennsylvania at Dartmouth
Traditionally we'd be talking about a Pennsylvania blowout, as the Quakers dominated the Ivy League - along with Princeton - for so long.
But this is a game that could very well be entitled the Ugly Game of the Month, as Penn is 2-14 and Dartmouth rolls in with a 4-14 mark.
And though I don't expect a win by huge proportions, I am thinking we're going to see the Quakers pull the upset outright, as they've at least remained competitive to some regard in their games.
Dartmouth, meanwhile, has already lost by finals like 76-47 and 71-37 in conference play already. Quick disclaimer, the worst loss for the Quakers came at Duke, 114-55.
And make note, Penn has played the likes of Villanova, Duke, Temple and St. Joe's this season. The Quakers arguably have had the toughest non-conference schedule this season.
I'm betting that Penn is going to steal this one on the road, with a better personnel of the two cellar dwellers.
2♦ PENNSYLVANIA