Round 3 NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
Third-round action, formally known as the second round, of the 2011 NCAA Tournament tips off this weekend. To help you sift through the games at hand, here are some notes and trends for this year’s dance. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Third round notes
• No. 1 Seeds are 1-11 ATS off 3 or more SU and ATS wins
• No. 4 Seeds are 7-20 ATS since 2003
• No. 5 Seed dogs are 13-4 ATS since 1999
• No. 7 Seed who are underdogs of 3 or more points are 13-25 ATS (2-14 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU wins)
• No. 8 Seeds are 20-11 ATS S/95 (8-1 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins)
• No. 9 Seed dogs off a SU dog win are 5-16 ATS
• No. 10 Seeds are 5-0 ATS vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins
• No. 13 or worse Seeds are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS
Over the last four years...
No. 1 seeds are 12-4 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
No. 3 seeds are 10-5 ATS and 10-4 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
No. 5 seeds are 3-7 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
No. 6 seeds are 9-0 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
No. 9 seeds are 8-1 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
No. 12 seeds are 5-1 ATS in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
Big East is 13-6-1 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
Big Ten is 11-5 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
SEC is 8-2 over/under in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
Pac-10 is 59 ATS in the round of 32 over the last four NCAA Tournaments.
Best Team SU records in this round
West Virginia: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Duke: 11-1, UCLA 9-1, Kansas: 7-1, Arizona: 5-1.
Worst Team SU records in this round
Miss State: 0-4, BYU: 0-3, Texas A&M: 0-3.
Best Team ATS records in this round
West Virginia: 5-0, Xavier: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Kansas: 9-1, North Carolina: 4-1, Tennessee: 4-1.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Pittsburgh: 0-5, BYU: 0-3, Cincinnati: 1-7, Florida: 1-4, Ohio State: 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Pac-10: 11-0 vs. opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, Missouri Valley: 4-0 as underdogs of more than 7 points, Big East: 13-3 as dogs, SEC: 16-5 as dogs of more than 2 points, Big 12: 28-12 (12-3 vs. opponent off back-to-back SU wins).
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
WAC: 0-4 as double-digit dogs, ACC: 1-11 as faves of 9 or more points, SEC: 2-12 as faves of 7 or more points, Big Ten: 3-9 as faves of 7 points or more.
Saturday Trends to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
West Virginia vs. Kentucky (NCAA at Tampa)...Bob Huggins is only 3-4 this season in an underdog role. Both trending 'under' lately, WVU 5-1 its last 6, Kentucky 11-4 its last 15.
UCLA vs. Florida (NCAA at Tampa)...The Bruins have offered good spread value since early February, covering 9 of their last 12, but Florida has dropped just one of its last eight spread decisions (6-1-1). Although 'over' ?last 2, Bruins are still 'under'15-8 their last 23 this season, which conflicts with Florida's 'over' 15-5-1 its last 21 outings. Note that Billy Donovan won his first NCAA tourney game since the 2007 title clash vs. Ohio State on Thursday against UCSB. What next for the Gators, UC Irvine and UC Riverside?
Butler vs. Pittsburgh (NCAA at Washington, D.C.)...Butler has won 10 in a row SU and is also 'under' 6-1 its last 7 games. The Bulldogs are also 5-0-1 their last six as an underdog this season. The Panthers were one of many Big East teams that were trending 'under' late in the season (8-1 the last nine in Pitt's case).
Cincinnati at UConn (NCAA at Washington, D.C.)...The teams only met once this season, with UConn winning outright as a 3 ½-point dog at Cincy on Feb. 27. Both enter this one hot, the Huskies winning and covering six straight since their wild run through the Big East Tourney last week, with the Bearcats a solid 7-2 vs. the line their last nine on the board.
Morehead State vs. Richmond (NCAA at Denver)...Note that OVC rep Morehead is 6-2 as an underdog this season. But Richmond is red hot, with the Spiders winning and covering 8 in a row, and also 'under' 7-0-1 those last eight games.
Gonzaga vs. BYU (NCAA at Denver)...Note that BYU is just 2-4 vs. the line since star frontliner Brandon Davies was suspended for breaking the school honor code. Meanwhile, the Zags have won 10 in a row SU and are 7-2 vs. the spread their last nine on the board.
Temple vs. San Diego State (NCAA at Tucson)...Surprisingly, Fran Dunphy's Owls are only 6-12 vs. the line their last 18 on the board this season. Meanwhile, the Aztecs have won their last 6 SU and have covered five of those. SDSU is also 'under' 17-7 its last 24 this season.
Kansas State vs. Wisconsin (NCAA at Tucson)...K-State has won 7 of its last 8 SU and covered 6 of those, while the Cats are also 'over' in 6 of their last 8. The Badgers are also a surprising 7-2 'over' in their last nine outings.
Northwestern at Boston College (NIT)...BC just 3-6 as Chestnut Hill chalk this season. Conflicting recent totals trends, with Eagles 'over' 4-1 last 5 and NU 'under' 5-2 last 7.
College of Charleston at Cleveland State (NIT)...The host Vikings have been in a pointspread fade, dropping 9 of their last 11 vs. the number.
Buffalo at Western Michigan (CIT)...Buffalo won and covered at Kalamazoo in only meeting this season. That first meeting went 'over' as have 12 of WMU's last 16 games.
Jacksonville at SMU (CIT)...SMU is 10-3-1 its last 14 vs. the line and has also gone 'under' in last 5 and 7 of last 9 games. Meanwhile, Artis Gilmore's alma mater beat both Auburn and Florida in pre-league play (are the Dolphins the unofficial SEC champs?).
San Francisco at Hawaii (CIT)...The Dons have been a pointspread overachiever since Christmastime, covering 15 of their last 21 on the board. Also note Hawaii's 'overs' in 7 straight and 9 of the Warriors' last 10 games.