Malinsky
6* CONNECTICUT over MICHIGAN
While some coaches try to downplay what it means to be #1 at this
juncture of the season, Jim Calhoun is enjoying his time on the
throne. Having already cut down the nets twice in his career he knows
all about where a team needs to be in early February in terms of that
development, and he has been most open about how it is creating a
challenge that he is enjoying seeing this particular roster go
through. Now his Huskies are playing only their second home game in
over two weeks, the first being a 94-61 destruction of a good
Providence team, and first since ascending to the top of the polls,
and we believe that they are ready to deliver a haymaker of a punch
in front of a sold-out crowd.
As such, we feel sorry for John Beilein, a guy we like an awful lot.
At the best of times this is an awful matchup for Beilein and his
Wolverines. He has a young roster that is still learning his system,
and has precious little size around the basket to make up for
mistakes. As such road tests against class competition are going to
be nightmares. In the last four trips from Ann Arbor they have been
pounded 66-51 at Illinois, 73-58 at Penn State, 72-54 at Ohio State
and 67-49 at Purdue, teams that do not bring anywhere near the size,
athleticism and explosiveness of the opponent he has to face today.
But that is only the beginning of his problems.
While Connecticut has been off since Monday night, offering a rare
opportunity to create a full game plan together for a non-conference
opponent, Beliein is caught in an awful trap. His team put a major
focus into getting revenge in that Thursday night home game against
Penn State, and to their credit they made it happen. But now that
leaves almost no preparation time for a Connecticut team that causes
such matchup headaches, all the while the Wolverines are also
daydreaming about their Tuesday night home showdown on national
television against arch-rival Michigan State.
So what happens here? A major blowout. Look for the Michigan offense
to have the usual problem that fist-time opponents have against
Hasheem Thabeet, who will block a lot of shots, and alter many that
he does not directly tough, and the battle on the boards will be
completely one-sided. And while we have a home team ready to play to
a crescendo, we would not be surprised if Beilein waved a white flag
here, allowing his reserves to get some playing time, and keeping his
starters fresh for Tuesday. Since he can not win this one anyway, who
can blame him?
CALIFORNIA SPORTS
4 GEORGE WASHINGTON
4 OHIO
4 MIAMI FLORIDA
4 CALIFORNIA
3 utah
3 bowling green
3 ul lafayette
Scott Spreitzer
25* Early Morning Massacre:
Georgetown -10.5
Cokin
GOY Kent St -3.5
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
SEC CONFERENCE POWER PLAY GAME OF THE YEAR
Vanderbilt -7
Yankee Capper
PITTSBURGH -15
Marc Lawrence
DOG GOM IOWA STATE
Seabass
300 fla state
200 kent st
100 wisc g.b. , cent fla.
50 gonzaga, ucla
30 utah,
20 miami, Uab
Accu-picks
4* Fla St
Mike Lee
4* Texas
Special K
20* Kbomb Providence
Dime Players Club
Pistons -3'
Nellys Sportsline
2* Villanova -5.5
1* Texas A&M -3
1* Florisa St. +9.5
NSA
20* Memphis +5 (NCAA)
10* Syracuse +5.5
10* UCLA -10
10* Wright St +2
10* UNLV +5
10* Minnesota +8 (NBA)
M&M SPORTS
4* Ohio U. -15
4* Xavier over 152
3* East. Illinois -15
2* UNM -5
2* UCLA -10
1* Nova -5
1* Miss. St. -7
1* Mich +17
1* Miami Fl. +14
RAS
Pacific (+1.5) 1.00 UNIT
UC Riverside (-3) 1.50 UNIT
Florida International (+2) 1.50 UNIT
George Washington (-13) 1.00 UNIT
Idaho (+2.5) 1.00 UNIT
Larry Ness
Oddsmaker's Error
It's quite a "second act" for Butler head coach Brad Stevens, who won 30 games last year, in his first season at the school. Butler lost stellar guards Green (14.6-6.5-5.1) and Graves (13.6) off last year's team, along with the 6-7 Campbell (11.7), the 6-6 Betko (4.9-2.4) and the 6-8 Streicher (4.0-2.7). Amazingly, the Bulldogs have hardly "missed a beat." The 6-7 Howard (13.1-7.0) is back for his sophomore year and is joined up front by 6-8 freshman Hayward (13.8-6.3). In the backcourt, freshmen Mack (12.7-3.8 APG) and Nored (3.3-3.1-2.6) are joined by 6-3 junior Veasley (8.7-4.0). While that trio hasn't matched the production of Green and Graves, one can't ignore Butler's 20-2 mark. The 6-8 Jukes (3.6-2.4) and guard Vanzant (3.8) are the team's top reserves. Butler's dominated its Horizon League foes going back to last year, winning 22 of their last 23 conference games. However, Butler's first conference loss this year came this past Monday, when the Bulldogs lost at Wisconsin-Green Bay, 75-66. Butler's in a tough stretch right now, as a week ago Friday, the Bulldogs beat Valpo at home 59-51, not coming close to covering as 18.5-point favorites. Then came Monday night's loss and Thursday Butler played at Detroit, winning 66-61 but not covering as 10.5-point favorites. Tonight's game at Wright St will be the team's FOURTH in eight days and its THIRD straight on the road. What's more, Butler's lost its last three visits to Wright St's home court, the Nutter Center. Brad Brownell's team got off to a dreadful start TY, losing its first SIX games. Worse yet, the team's best player, guard Vaughn Duggins (13.8 PPG last season) was lost for the entire season after four games. However, Duggins' backcourt partner Brown (10.0-5.2) has made the perimeter game work joined by Gardner (8.7), Tabler (6.6), Evans (6.3) and Graham (5.5). Grote (3.5), a 6-6 transfer from Duquesne has been a disappointment but 6-7 CC transfer Cooperwood (9.2-5.3) has been excellent. So what's happened to WSU since that 0-6 beginning? All the Raiders have done is go 14-3 SU and 11-4 ATS and will take the nation's second-best scoring defense (55.2 PPG) into this game. After losing its first two games at the Nutter Center, WSU has won seven in a row, holding opponents to a measly 47.9 PPG. Considering Butler's tough travel schedule this week, the way WSU has been playing and that WSU has beaten Butler the last three times here in the Nutter Center, a fourth straight win seems likely. Even better, the linemakers are giving us a couple of points. Oddsmaker's Error on Wright St (8*).
CAA 10*
Blaine Taylor is in his eighth season at ODU and his teams have finished no worse than fourth the last five season in the CAA. Prior to LY's 18-16 year (11-7 in CAA), his Monarchs had won 28, 24 and 24 games the previous three seasons. Four starters returned this year and the team's 14-8 overall mark (7-5 in the CAA has them tied for 5th) is somewhat of a disappointment. The 6-10 Lee (14.8-5.5) and 6-5 sophomore guard Finney (10.8-6.5) are the team's only two double digit scorers and while the Monarchs own some fairly decent depth, the team's 63.4 percent mark from the FT line really hurts. Bruiser Flint's Drexel team got off to a dreadful 2-6 start but has since rebounded to go 10-3 post-Christmas Day. The Dragons have a very deep backcourt with Rodgers (13.6-4.6), Colds (9.0), Hawthorne (8.8) and Harris (7.8). They don't have anyone as big or as good as Lee in the frontcourt but the 6-8 Neisler (8.2-7.5), the 6-8 Spencer (6.2-4.4), 6-5 Givens (5.9-6.9) and the 6-9 Tribbet (3.0-2.9) are a solid group. Drexel plays a swarming defense and it's effective, holding opponents to just 62.5 PPG and 40.2 percent on FGs. Drexel's seven-game winning streak (also 7-0 ATS) was just snapped in its last outing (a 73-70 loss in OT at Delaware on Feb 4) but here at home, expect the Dragons to surround ODU's Lee inside, forcing the rest of the team to make plays. Last year's 12-win team took ODU to two OT's in Norfolk before losing, so here in Philly, expect a Drexel team which has 'jelled,' to have little trouble with the Monarchs. CAA 10* on Drexel
Weekend Wipeout Winner
Marty Simmons struggled in his first season at Evansville, as the Purple Aces went 9-21 overall and 3-15 in the MVC. However, the Purple Aces returned all five starters this year and while no one expected Evansville to contend for the MVC title, improvement was expected. It's also been delivered. Ely, the team's 6-4 small forward averages a team-high 17.5 PPG and 6.6 RPG. The 6-5 Garner (10.1-6.0) joins him in the starting frontcourt with the 6-11 van Tongeren (5.0-2.8). Holsinger (11.2) returns at guard and two freshman have joined these four vets to form the core of this team. The freshman are guard Williams (5.9-4.5 APG) and the 6-7 Haarsma (5.7-4.4). Evansville is 14-8 overall and a respectable 6-6 in MVC play. Wichita St comes in with FIVE wins in its last six games but the Shockers are just 11-12 overall and 5-7 in MVC play. Both guards are new this year, as Murry (11.6) is a freshman and Hannah (10.5-4.5 APG) is a JUCO. Up front, the 7-0 Stutz (5.0-3.0) is no more effective than van Tongeren of Evansville and while the 6-7 Durley (7.7-4.4) and the 6-6 Clemente (7.1-7.8) may be slightly bigger than their Evansville counterparts, they aren't better players. FOUR of Wichita's recent five wins have come at home, as the team's Feb 4 win at Indiana St (64-58), marked the Shockers' first road win of the year. Let's note that Ind St is 4-19 overall (2-10 in the MVC) and that Wichita St had lost all seven of its previous road games TY, including going 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS) on the MVC road. As for Evansville, the Purple Aces are 12-2 SU at home, losing only to MVC powers Northern Iowa and Creighton. Evansville just barely lost 51-50 at Wichita back on Jan 25, as the team made just 36.0 percent of its shots, plus the Shockers had 28 FT attempts to the Purple Aces' 15. Expect Evansville to shoot a MUCH better percentage here at home and for those FT attempts to also be "adjusted." Weekend Wipeout Winner on Evansville (7.5*).
Larry Ness
Weekend Wipeout Winner
The Pistons grabbed a much-needed win Wednesday night, as they beat the Heat 93-90. Detroit had lost NINE of its previous 12 games entering its game with Miami and while the Pistons did blow a 13-point third-quarter lead and missed a number of FTs in the game's final 30 seconds, it was their first win over a team with a winning record since beating Denver on Jan 9. Milwaukee has been a 'whipping boy' for Detroit the last few seasons, as the Pistons have won EIGHT of the last nine meetings between the two teams, covering SIX of last seven in the series (Detroit is already 2-0 SU and ATS this year). Guard Michael Redd (21.2) has been "done for the year" for some time now but more bad news came Milwaukee's way with the recent announcement that center C Andrew Bogut (11.7-10.2) would miss at least eight weeks due to continuing back problems. The Bucks are 0-5 SU playing without Bogut and Redd this season plus PG Ridnour (10.7-5.7 APG) is also out tonight with a finger injury. Detroit averages only 92.9 PPG (2nd-worst in the league) but through all its problems, the Pistons can still play D (93.1 PPG allowed ranks 3rd). The guard trio of Iverson, Hamilton and Stuckey has just not worked as well as first-year head coach Curry had hoped but the Pistons can beat the Bucks "from memory alone." With Redd and Bogut both out (not to mention Ridnour), the Pistons will win in a rout! Weekend Wipeout Winner Det Pistons (7.5*).
TV Game of the Week
No. 14 Memphis has won 13 straight and No. 18 Gonzaga has won nine straight, while assuming control of the West Coast Conference (especially with Mills out for St Mary's). Memphis hasn't much worried about its C-USA schedule, as the Tigers own 50 consecutive C-USA wins, including tournament play. Memphis is a rare national power to visit Spokane to play the Bulldogs. Gonazaga has made 10 straight NCAA appearances (nine straight under Few) and few if any major programs want to visit Spokane. In fact, even this game will NOT be played in Gonzaga's on-campus McCarthey Athletic Center, but rather in the Spokane Arena. Memphis averages 77.0 PPG and allows 61.5, while Gonzaga averages 78.8 PPG, while allowing 62.4. Memphis famously collapsed in the final minutes of last year's national title to Kansas (eventually lost in OT) and Rose, Douglas-Roberts and Dorsey are all gone from that team. The 6-9 Dozier (11.9-6.9) is back, as is 6-6 swingman Anderson (10.5-4.9), the 6-10 Taggert (10.0-7.0) and guard Mack (9.5). However, the team's best player is freshman guard Evans, who averages 16.8-5.4-3.9. I'm not sold on the Memphis bench. For that matter, Gonzaga isn't very deep either but this is a veteran team. WCC p-o-y Pargo (9.9-3.8-5.4) is again running the team with a trio of big guards. Bouldin (13.7-3.8) and Gray (10.4-3.4) are 6-5 and Downs (8.3-4.5) is 6-7. Heytvelt (14.4-6.7) and Daye (13.8-7.4) are both 6-11 or 6-10 and both have played extremely well TY. This is a HUGE game for Gonzaga, as a win would do wonders to bolster the Bulldogs' stock (meaning seeding) for the upcoming NCAA tournament. Memphis can be had, as shown when this year's team lost THREE times in five games (from 11/23-12/20), to Xavier (neutral game) plus now slumping teams like Georgetown (on the road) and Syracuse (at home). Gonzaga owns the nation's best defensive FG percentage at 36.4 and back on Dec 20, gave now-No. 1 U Conn all it wanted before losing 88-83 in OT at Seattle's Key Arena. This game may not be on campus but it is in Spokane and the 'Zags and their fans will be ready TV Game of the Week on Gonzaga (6*).
Bailout Blowout
St Mary's jumped out to a halftime lead at Gonzaga on Jan 29 but couldn't hold the lead without guard Paddy Mills. Mills injured his hand (wrist) late in the first half and Gonzaga came back to to win 69-62, ending St Mary's 15-game winning streak. The Gaels followed that game by getting 'rocked' at Portland but were able to win in their last game, over a mediocre San Francisco team. Here however, the Gaels must play a red-hot Santa Clara team, which almost beat them back in Moraga on Jan 9. Mills (who had 31 points), made a three-pointer with 2.6 seconds to play, allowing St Mary's to 'escape.' The Gaels were also able to hold Santa Clara's 6-11 Bryant (17.3-13.7) to just nine points and eight boards, something that isn't likely to happen again. St Mary's does have quite a duo in the 6-11 Samhan (14.0-9.5) and the 6-7 Simpson (13.6-11.0) but without Mills, Hughes (8.2), McConnell (4.7) and Hunter (4.6) will not be able to handle Santa Clara's vastly improved perimeter game. Foster (13.4) is a freshman who just keeps getting better, while Rahon (11.5) and Petty (7.5) round out a very nice trio. Santa Clara has won five in a row entering this game with the first four coming at home where the Broncos are 9-2 TY). The latest win came at San Diego, 64-62 in OT. Santa Clara has allowed only 56.6 PPG during its five-game win streak and St Mary's (sans Mills) is in for a LONG night. Bailout Blowout on St Mary's (7*).
Steven Budin
CEO SATURDAY'S PICK 25 DIME
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM
DAVE COKIN
Eastern Kentuck +2
Detroit -4-110
Santa Clara +4
SYSTEM Towson +8½
HAT Pittsburgh -15
WINDOW Providence +11½
BIG GUN Wyoming +6½
SYSTEM Virginia +25
BIG GUN Ohio -15½
WINDOW Florida State +9½
HAT Cal Irvine -1½
GOY Kent State -4
Joe D'Amico
Miami at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia -3.5
Prior to Miami's win over Philly back in November, the 76er's have dominated the Heat winning and covering 5 straight in the series. Philadelphia has has the upper-hand at the Wachovia Center, going 14-2 SU and covering 8 of the last 9 vs. the Heat in Philly. Miami is just 6-13-1 ATS their last 20 games on 2 days rest and 8-23 ATS their last 31 vs. the NBA Atlantic. The 76er's are 4-0-1 ATS their last 5 vs. the NBA Southeast, 7-2 ATS their last 9 vs. teams with a winning record, and 29-13 ATS their last 42 games played on Saturday. Philly is in 7th place in the East, just 2 games back of the 6th place Heat. In their first game, Iguodala had a season low 2 points. He will come back with a vengence. The line is low due to the absence of Elton Brand. But Miller, Iguodala, and Dalembert will step up. Philly minus the points.
ASA
Minnesota at Houston
Play: Under 199.5
Today we go contrarian again with an UNDER bet in the Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets game. At first glance most bettors are going to jump on the OVER in this game but based on our math-model this number should be 191, NOT the 200 the oddsmakers opened with. Neither team is shooting it well right now as Minnesota is coming off a game against Atlanta (thank you Hawks for the Top Game win) in which they hit just 36.4% from the field as a team. Two of the Wolves starters, Telfair and Gomes combined to go 1 of 19 from the field. Overall on the season the Wolves average just 44% shooting from the field when playing on the road so don’t expect a big change from the other night when they couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Houston on the other hand has had some problems of their own shooting the basketball as they hit just 39% of their attempts the other night in Memphis and the Grizzlies aren’t really know for their defense (they rank 29th in the NBA in FG% against). Looking at this series we find the scores have ALL been very low when the two teams square off in Houston. In this situation the two teams have combined for just 183, 195, 182, 157 and 161 total points in their last
JOE NELSON
Minnesota at Ohio St
Play: Minnesota +5
Minnesota played as poorly as possible against Michigan State for an ugly loss last week. Coach Smith should have a very motivated squad and this could be a tough situation for Ohio State as the Buckeyes enter this game off a big national TV win over Purdue that took overtime. Minnesota won the first meeting between these teams in Minneapolis but a revenge effort might not happen tonight. Minnesota severely out-rebounded Ohio State in that game and the Buckeyes had a big edge at the free throw line yet still lost by nine points. Ohio State has been beatable at home as well as West Virginia destroyed the Buckeyes in Columbus and Michigan State also picked up a convincing win in this building. Purdue, Iowa, Butler, and Bowling Green also played games down to the wire here. Ohio State has allowed over 70 points per game in the past five games while Minnesota is giving up just 63 points per game in that span. Free throw shooting has been a problem for Ohio State and despite having good size the Buckeyes have not been a strong rebounding team. Minnesota has the depth and quickness to control this game and should deliver a great effort coming off an ugly loss. Minnesota has already won three road games in Big Ten play and is 5-2 S/U away from home so far this season.
ASA
Minnesota at Houston
Play: Under 199.5Today we go contrarian again with an UNDER bet in the Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets game. At first glance most bettors are going to jump on the OVER in this game but based on our math-model this number should be 191, NOT the 200 the oddsmakers opened with. Neither team is shooting it well right now as Minnesota is coming off a game against Atlanta (thank you Hawks for the Top Game win) in which they hit just 36.4% from the field as a team. Two of the Wolves starters, Telfair and Gomes combined to go 1 of 19 from the field. Overall on the season the Wolves average just 44% shooting from the field when playing on the road so don’t expect a big change from the other night when they couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn. Houston on the other hand has had some problems of their own shooting the basketball as they hit just 39% of their attempts the other night in Memphis and the Grizzlies aren’t really know for their defense (they rank 29th in the NBA in FG% against). Looking at this series we find the scores have ALL been very low when the two teams square off in Houston. In this situation the two teams have combined for just 183, 195, 182, 157 and 161 total points in their last
RATING ?
RON RAYMOND
5* Iowa State +8
BobbyClarkeSports
Syracuse +5.5 Wager 660 to win 600
Valparaiso +3 Wager 660 to win 600
LaSalle -3 Wager 1100 to win 1000
Evansville -5 Wager 550 to win 500
NHL: St Louis Wager 580 to win 400
Bonus Pick: 76'ers -5
Syndicate Betting Systems
(Early)
3* Pittsburgh -15
3* Vanderbilt -6.5
The Animal
3* CINCINNATI
The Sports Contrarian
5 Unit Play Ball State +4
5 Unit Play Nebraska +3.5
Teddy June
Duquesne ppc
Rider
Gonzaga
Org St (2 game pack)
Wyoming (2 game pack)
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Bucks +3.5 over Pistons
NCAA Basketball
Auburn +3.5 over Tennessee
Oregon +4.5 over Arizona
IndianCowboy
4 Unit Play. Take UCONN -16.5 over Michigan
Let's go 6-0 on the week in College Ball. I know we have hit 4 straight College Dogs Outright, but today we're going to lay the wood on a favorite. I'm not the one to necessarily lay the wood on favorites, in fact, the last time I did was when Illinois crushed Indiana in 5* selection which brought our Big Ten 5* Selections to a perfect lifetime 9-0 and our 5* selections to 30-7 Lifetime as well. UCONN is rolling and I believe Michigan is going to have a let down after their win against Penn State at home. Remember, Michigan is the same team that went on the road to lose by 18 to Purdue, the same team to lose by 18 to Ohio State on the road, the same team to lose by 15 to Penn State and 15 to Illinois. Why in the world can this team not lose by 17 to the #1 team in the country in Uconn? What has Michigan done on the road this year after all? Yes, this team beat Duke - but that was at home. Yes, this team beat NW - but that was at home. On the highway, this team has gotten crushed for the most part. Plus, what was the point total in these road contests? This team put up 49 points at Purdue, 54 points at Ohio State, 58 at Penn State, 58 at Ohio State and 51 points at Illinois. If this team thinks that point total is going to be enough to be competitive or get inside this number today, I think they need to reconsider. UCONN is the type of team that puts up 75+ points at home and there is no reason why they don't want to lay the hammer down on "Michigan" - a school with plenty of name recognition and who has an outside shot at going to the Dance. I look for UCONN, the same team that beat Louisville on the road by 17, Providence at home by 33, Depaul on the road by 21 and Rutgers at home by 21 to get the job done here as they likely win by 20+ when all is said and done. The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS as Underdogs and UCONN is a solid 5-0 ATS on Saturday games and of course, this is a night game so the crowd will be rocking and wanting a show which the #1 team in the land will provide.