Special K
15* Western Kentucky
MIKEY SPORTS
4* Magic
3* Bobcats
3* Bulls
Ferringo
3-Unit Play. Take #522 Villanova (-2) over UCLA (1 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 145.0 UCLA vs. Villanova (1 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
UCLA looked like garbage against VCU on Thursday. The Rams had exactly one player and UCLA couldn't stay with him or stop them. Villanova didn't play much better. But they are still at home, in front of a favorable crowd, playing a West Coast team at 1 p.m. The Wildcats are the better team. And if they play at all up to their capabilities then they should run the Bruins. They have better guards, more interior scoring, and they have competed against better competition all year. This is a short number and a win should cover it.
1-Unit Play. Take #517 Texas (+7.5) over Duke (8 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
Texas's guards are going to get manhandled by Duke. AJ. Abrams is going to get hounded. But this is a type of team - large, athletic, and dominating in the post - that has given the Blue Devils fits in the past. Texas should control the boards and be able to defend the basket. So it's all about whether or not Duke hits their outside shots. I'm ready to bank on UT coming to play today and putting up a fight. Win or lose, I think they can play with the Blue Devils and I think they will.
1-Unit Play. Take #528 Washington (-1.5) over Purdue (5:40 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 140.0 Purdue vs. Washington (5:40 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
I really liked the energy and the passion that Washington played with on Thursday. Their guards are more aggressive and much more experienced. I love it that they are playing in front of, essentially, a home crowd. Mississippi State was playing as well as anyone in the country coming into the tournament and Washington smothered them. Purdue is playing great. I had them as one of a couple teams to come out of this region. But they were lackluster against Northern Iowa and I'm curious how they are going to perform against someone who matches their defensive intensity. We're going with the home team, going with the seniors and experience, and we're going with the team that played better in the opening round.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #526 Oklahoma (-6.5) over Michigan (5 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
I know that everyone thinks that Michigan is super-sleeper and is ready to make a run in this tournament. Well, I'm still not buying. Clemson played awful against the Wolverines on Thursday and didn't come close to exploiting their size advantage on the interior. Oklahoma is going to do that. The Sooners have played these types of perimeter teams before - Baylor and Nebraska come to mind - and they have had great success.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #529 Western Kentucky (+11) over Gonzaga (8 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
Gonzaga is overrated. I mean, Akron was awful and the Zags were in danger of losing to them. They didn't cover the spread in that game and they aren't a legitimate Final Four contender. Gonzaga is soft inside. They are a good team from a small conference and there are plenty of those out there. I didn't think that WKU is much this year. But they've been an ATM machine over the last month and I think that this number is thick.
1-Unit Play. Take #515 LSU (+12.5) over North Carolina (5:45 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
North Carolina put on a display in the first round. But LSU is a team that can actually score with them. The Heels likely won't still have Ty Lawson, and if they do he won't be 100 percent. That's driving the line up and I have to think that the Tigers will at least put up a fight this evening.
1-Unit Play. Take #523 Maryland (+9.5) over Maryland (3:20 p.m., Saturday, March 21)
I think I've made my feelings pretty clear on how I feel about Memphis. They aren't very good, they aren't making it to the Final Four, and I'll be playing against them as long as they are playing. It's about that simple.
DOC
3-Unit PlayTake Atlanta +8 Over Cleveland
3-Unit Play Take New York +11 ½ Over Orlando
4-Unit Play Take Chicago +4 Over LA Lakers
NHL
6 Unit Play.Take Florida -110 over Columbus
Florida gets Columbus at home fighting for that last spot in the eastern conference race. After a flat effort earlier in the week vs the Capitols the Panthers bounced back to beat the Maple Leafs 3-1 breaking a four game losing streak. Florida can't afford to come out flat and to get points in your home building becomes heighten this time of the year. Columbus comes into Florida looking in good shape for the playoffs for their first time in franchise history winners of seven of their last eleven, the Blue Jackets are off a see-saw win vs the Blackhawks and get the Panthers in desperate mode. I think Florida understands the importance of these points with a tough game on deck vs Carolina. I made this number slight higher at Florida being a thirty cent favorite, so I will back the Panthers here tonight.
SCORE
400 CONNECTICUT
300 Memphis (cbb)
300 UCLA
Tony Wright
20* Villanova/Ucla Over
JOHN RYAN
Game: UCLA at Villanova Mar 21 2009 1:05PM
Prediction: UCLA
Reason: Ai Simulator 15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Villanova slated to start at 1:05 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that UCLA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1997. Play on any team that is a good offensive team scoring 74-78 PPG facing a good defensive team allowing 63-67 PPG and after scoring 65 points or less 3 straight games. AiS shows a 95% probability that UCLA will get between 34 and 39 rebounds in this game. Note that UCLA is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game this season. They are also a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better since 1997. I also like an optional and alternative wager splitting the 15* amount into a 10* amount on the game line and a 5* amount on the first half line. Since this is a huge 15* play there is NO advantage to adding even more investment. My program is designed for the long haul and has served us very well over 16 years so never do we ever want to load up our success on just a few 15* games. Take UCLA
Larry Ness
Perfect Storm - Oklahoma
Akmens
Vancouver
The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
MEGA NCAA ROUND TWO TOURNAMENT PLAY OF THE YEAR
Purdue +1
Chris James Sports
2* Villanova
2* OKlahoma
2* Washington U
DOC
3-Unit PlayTake Atlanta +8 Over Cleveland
3-Unit Play Take New York +11 ½ Over Orlando
4-Unit Play Take Chicago +4 Over LA Lakers
NHL
6 Unit Play.Take Florida -110 over Columbus
Florida gets Columbus at home fighting for that last spot in the eastern conference race. After a flat effort earlier in the week vs the Capitols the Panthers bounced back to beat the Maple Leafs 3-1 breaking a four game losing streak. Florida can't afford to come out flat and to get points in your home building becomes heighten this time of the year. Columbus comes into Florida looking in good shape for the playoffs for their first time in franchise history winners of seven of their last eleven, the Blue Jackets are off a see-saw win vs the Blackhawks and get the Panthers in desperate mode. I think Florida understands the importance of these points with a tough game on deck vs Carolina. I made this number slight higher at Florida being a thirty cent favorite, so I will back the Panthers here tonight.
4 units Oklahoma
3 units Memphis
3 units Western Kentucky
Stu Feiner
Big Dance 5000 Dime Tournament Games of the Year - Early Edition
UCLA (145) vs Villanova (-2) @ Philadelphia
In what will be a like a home game this afternoon at the Wachovia Center in Philly, Jay Wright's Wildcats will give Ben Howland's Bruins a dose of their own tough-as-nails defense medicine as Villanova pulls away and blasts this UCLA bunch. The Bruins have failed to cover in two straight after just barely surviving against VCU Thursday night. It will be a different story against this Nova team that plays tough, physical defense and will get after this at times offensively-challenged UCLA team. The Bruins can play good defense, too, but they have not been as stout in that department as in recent years as witnessed by UCLA allowing its opponents to make 44.4% percent of their shots this year including 36.3% from beyond the arc. The Cats have three top-notch guards and this team can sink the trey. They've won seven of their last nine straight-up and while UCLA went just 4-7 ATS this year on one day rest, Nova went 10-5 ATS its last 15 versus teams with winning records. The home crowd helped Nova in its second half comeback over American Thursday and they'll be there again to support unsung senior forward Dante Cunningham and the Wildcats as Villanova blows out the Bruins in the second half.
VILLANOVA (-2) 5000 Dime High Roller
Texas A&M (+10) vs UConn (139') @ Philadelphia
UConn just hasn't looked the same since losing floor general Jerome Dyson to a season-ending knee injury and the Huskies will not be able to cover this big number today. In fact, I expect coach Mark Turgeon's Aggies to make the winning plays down the stretch and to win this one outright. The well-balanced Aggies whipped BYU on Thursday and are now on runs of 7-1 SU and 7-2 ATS. They played in the rugged Big 12, which produced two No. 3 seeds and one second-seed for this tournament. Last year they lost to UCLA in the second round in Anaheim. Two years ago they beat Louisville in Lexington. This is a solid team that has covered seven of its last eight Big Dance games and went 10-3 ATS as a dog this year. They've covered three of four against Big East competition and 12 of their last 16 neutral court games, Meanwhile, the Dyson-less Huskies no longer have their best on-ball defender and they got a free pass in the first round in facing a horrid UTC team. Overconfident, UConn, which had dropped two straight on the scoreboard while failing to cover in three straight and six of seven before Thursday, will quickly find that the bulky Aggies will bang with the Huskies inside. Look for big games from both Donald Sloan and Josh Carter as A&M pulls the upset later today.
TEXAS A&M (+10) 5000 Dime High Roller
Maryland (131') vs Memphis (-9) @ Kansas City
Here's the deal, outside of Roburt Sallie and his 35 points off the bench, not one Memphis Tiger played up to his potential in the Tigers' opening round win over scrappy Cal State-Northridge. John Calipari's club will not turn in two straight clunkers and the Tigers, winners of 26 straight and 32-3 SU and 21-12 ATS this year, will steamroll this Maryland team that leans way, way too much on one player. Maryland's Greivis Vasquez will see plenty of Tyreke Evans and the Tigers today and the Terps' season comes to a close. Maryland is just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS on one or less days rest this year and the much deeper and much more athletic Tigers will win this game by at least 15 points.
MEMPHIS (-9) 100 Dimes
Michigan (+6') vs Oklahoma (137) @ Kansas City
The bottom line is that this is just too many points for Oklahoma to cover as the Sooners depend on one player way too much. Of course that one player, Blake Griffin, is a stud, but Michigan is used to playing grind-it-out games in the Big Ten with lots of banging inside. The Sooners got past Morgan State on Thursday, but are still just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and on a 6-9 ATS slide when playing on one or less day's rest. John Beilein's Wolverines have covered seven of their last eight non-conference games and did beat the likes of Duke and UCLA this year. Their quirky offense and unorthodox 1-3-1 zone defense will give the Sooners fits and DeShawn Sims and the Wolverines will easily stay inside this number.
MICHIGAN (+6') 100 Dimes
Purdue (139') vs Washington (-1') @ Portland - 5:40 pm EST
Purdue took advantage of a home crowd advantage in Indianapolis last week to win the Big Ten tournament championship, and Washington will take advantage of a home crowd advantage Saturday at the Rose Garden in Portland to win and cover and move onto the Sweet 16. The Boilermakers went 0-2 SU/ATS as a dog this year while Jon Brockman and the Huskies have won four straight and are 7-3 ATS playing on one days rest this season. Washington has a decided edge in the backcourt with Justin Dentmon and Isaiah Thomas the Pac-10 regular season champs will make the plays down the stretch to score this second round win and cover.
WASHINGTON (-1') 100 Dimes
LSU (+11) vs North Carolina (157') @ Greensboro
As per the norm, the Tar Heels are being asked to cover too many points and they will again come up short covering this steep impost. UNC has losing spread marks this year overall, as a favorite and is just 4-10 ATS its last 14 versus teams with winning records. And of course, the status of ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson is still uncertain as even if he and his much-talked about jammed big toe can go, he will be nowhere near 100 percent. The SEC regular season champion Tigers felt slighted by their seeding for this tournament, but make no mistake, the Bayou Bengals can play. Conference Player of the Year Marcus Thornto will come big as will upperclassmen Garrett Temple and Tasmin Mitchell as the Tigers keep this one close.
LSU (+11) 100 Dimes
Western Kentucky (143') vs Gonzaga (-10') @ Portland
The Hilltoppers won a below average Sun Belt tournament title this year and took advantage of an injured Illinois team Thursday, but Western Kentucky's season comes to a halt tonight as Gonzaga wins this game by at least 15 points. Last year the Bulldogs routed WKU by the tune of 74-51 as the taller and more technically skilled Zags will again handle this Hilltopper team that will not catch Gonzaga off guard. Plenty of Bulldog faithful will be on hand from nearby Spokane and Mark Few's Bulldogs will dominate in the pain in covering this number.
GONZAGA (-10') 100 Dimes
Helmut
W Ken / Washington Under 140
Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-CBB (7-3 run in tourney games s/Mar 10)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Washington at 5:40 ET. Matt Painter has led the Boilermakers to three straight NCAA tourneys. The previous two seasons, he's won his opener and then lost in the second round. Is Purdue destined for a similar fate this year? I believe so. The Boilermakers got no favors being sent to Portland, where they'll have to face a Washington Husky team with a strong regional following. Purdue started strong vs Northern Iowa on Thursday but struggled down the stretch, holding on for a five-point win. Last year's star freshman have all responded well as sophomores, as the trio of guard Moore (14.0-4.7), the 6-10 Johnson (13.2-5.5) and the 6-8 Hummel (12.1-6.8) are again the team's top players (Hummel was the Big 10 tourney map). Junior guard Kramer (5.1-2.5 APG) was named the Big 10's defensive p-o-y and 5-9 freshman Jackson (5.6-3.5 APG) rounds out the starting lineup. The 6-9 Calasan (6.5-3.0) provides frontcourt depth, with Grant (7.9) and Green (4.1) contributing in the backcourt. Purdue is also an excellent defensive team and when "hitting on all cylinders," may actually be almost as good as its press clippings. I like this Purdue team but it has shown a tendency to underachieve. I DON'T like them here, vs an underrated Washington team. The Huskies went 14-4 and won the Pac 10 title outright, for the first time since 1953. The 6-7 Brockman (14.7-11.3) has "stuck it out" for all four years in Seattle (last two seasons were NO fun) and it's time this tireless worker gets rewarded. He's joined in the frontcourt by the 6-6 Pondexter (11.8-5.8), who had a season-high 23 points in the win over Miss St (Brockman had 10-15) and 6-8 freshman Gant (3.1-3.4). The starting guards are freshman Thomas (15.2-3.1-2.6) and senior Dentmon (14.7-2.5 APG). The versatile 6-8 Amaning (6.2-4.12) is the first player of fthe bench, while sophomore Overton (5.9) and freshman Turner (3.6) add depth in the backcourt. Washington was in a good spot vs Miss St on Thursday, as the Bulldogs were forced to make a long trip after needing four wins in four days to capture the SEC tourney. What I find really impressive by Washington's 13-point win, is that BOTH Thomas and Dentmon were AWFUL (combined 4-of-19 on FGs, including 0-for-7 on threes), yet the Huskies won comfortably. Washington is fourth in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-8.3) and Brockman and Co. really never "stop working." As for Thomas and Dentmon, expect this backcourt duo to "return to form" in this one. Washington got a great break in playing this weekend's games in Portland and the Huskies won't let this great opportunity get away. Las Vegas Insider on Washington.