ROOT
Chairman - North Carolina
Millionaire - Michigan St
Winning Angle
Play Michigan State (+4) over Connecticut* (NCAA Top Play)
Michigan State has won 10 of the last 11 games and they have also won 15 of the last 16 games when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points. Michigan State has won 14 of the last 16 non-conference games and they are only allowing an average of 62 points a game on defense this season.
Play Villanova (+7) over North Carolina* (NCAA Top Play)
Villanova has won 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won 4 consecutive games when the total posted is between 150 and 159.5 points. Villanova has won 15 of the last 16 non-conference games and they are averaging over 77 points a game on offense this season.
NBA Hoops
Play Toronto (+2.5) over New York* (NBA Top Play)
NHL
Play Montreal (-160) over Toronto* (NHL Bonus Play)
BeatYourBookie
100* Play Michigan State (+4) over Connecticut (NCAA)
Michigan State is 21-2 SU when playing their 2nd game in a week
Michigan State is 15-3 SU coming off a win by 10 points or more
Michigan State is 20-3 SU when seeded #4 or higher in the NCAA Tournament
100* Play Villanova (+7) over North Carolina (NCAA)
Villanova is 4-0 SU coming off an upset win as an underdog the last game
Villanova is 9-0 SU after playing a game as an underdog
Villanova is 16-4 SU after covering the spread in the last game
Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play Atlanta (+2.5) over Orlando (NBA)
30* Play Boston (-175) over NY Rangers (NHL)
Brad Diamond Sports
20* NBA Revenge Game Of The Month:
Play: Atlanta over Orlando
Back in early January the Magic placed a spell on the home standing Hawks cruising to a 121-87 win. With Orlando off a win last night, and the Hawks, this is a super handicapping situation, especially considering the site. Add in the Hawks splendid 8-1 ATS mark at home as an underdog and 11-2-1 ATS overall (home), you have the perfect blend of techs, site and emotion flowing in your direction.
Ben Burns
NCAA GOY
NCAR -7
Marc Lawrence
ATL HAWKS
Kelso
Added
10 units Hawks
3 units Mich St
Craig Davis
60 Dime - VILLANOVA
20 Dime - UCONN
VILLANOVA --- And away we go... the four best teams in college basketball take center stage at Ford Field tonight in what I believe will be very entertaining games. But that latter contest, featuring #1 seed Carolina and 3-seed Villanova, has all the makings of another classic. I have a feeling this one will be more entertaining than what we saw when 'Nova survived Pitt by a deuce in the final seconds of the game. The Wildcats have all the makings of a National Championship caliber team; they can score inside, shoot from beyond the perimeter, and defend like nobody's business.
And if you look at their tournament run thus far, they've beaten every kind of team imagineable. They pounded a very defensive-minded UCLA team, scoring 89 points on them. They followed that up with a 23-point beatdown of the Duke Blue Devils, a team that is known to be sharpshooters from the outside. And finally they beat Pitt, a conference rival, who has one of the most dominating big men in the game. You see, it doesn't matter what type of team that has been thrown at them, they've met the challenge in every game and somehow came out on top.
The Wildcats also proved that they know how to win when the going gets tough. After falling behind American U in the first round, 'Nova was able to go on an incredible second-half run to win by 13. After pummeling two straight solid opponents, they had to battle for their lives and fight back from a four-point deficit in the closing minutes to hold off Pitt by two. So you see, this Wildcat team has seen it all in this tournament and absolutely nothing the Tar Heels do tonight will come as a shock to them.
Carolina, on the other hand, simply hasn't been tested. How will they react if they find themselves down by double digits or in a very tight game with just minutes to go? We have no idea, because they've breezed through this tournament so far, virtually untested by anyone. The closest anyone came was LSU in the second round and Oklahoma in the fourth round, but neither of those games were really as close as the score might have indicated. What Oklahoma did was give Villanova a blueprint as to how to slow Carolina down to a pace in which they score in the low 70s. If that happens, Villanova will win this game SU. If Carolina is able to manage to get more than 80 points, it's gonna be a dogfight.
Another reason I like the 'Cats so much is their dominating presence on the boards and their pressure defense. Villanova has outrebounded every team they've played so far in this tournament and they do it by attacking the glass with at least three people. Although Dante Cunningham seems to be the "premiere big man" for this team, it's really anyone's guess as to which player will finish with the most boards. And did you happen to catch their last game against Pitt? Did you notice how the late pressure forced a few Pitt turnovers that eventually cost them the game? A complete team effort from Villanova tonight will be the difference in this game. They believe in themselves, and know they have all the tools to win this whole darn thing.
Oh, and if that's not enough... let's quickly talk about their free throws. That stat alone might be the difference in this game. They have at least four players who are capable of taking the ball to the rim and drawing the foul. And not only that, but when they get to the line, they convert. How does 86 of 106 in four games sound, not to mention the fact they've made at least 19 FTs in all four games.
No doubt Carolina is talented and capable of winning this by double digits if they play perfectly, but in this same scenario last year they were run out of the gym by Kansas 84-66 in a game the Jayhawks led by 30. Don’t think that isn’t in the back of the minds of all those players who were in this game last season because it absolutely is. The pressure is intense on the Tar Heels and it will show throughout this game, and if this team gets down by double digits early, those haunting memories of a year ago will rear their ugly heads again. Nova has covered five of their last six in this tournament as an underdog, four of their last five vs. non-conference opponents and 12 of their last 16 vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600. Guys, don’t be surprised to see Villanova win this game SU.
UCONN --- Like defense and physical play? Strap yourself in for a football game on the basketball court this afternoon in Detroit. Their might be more football played in this game than in all of the NFL games played at Ford Field this past season (pun intended). If MSU has its way, this game will end in the low 60s. UConn, obviously, wants it a little higher scoring. You see, the difference between UConn and Louisville is simple… Louisville can’t play a slower pace and expect to win. They’re not built for that. UConn, on the other hand, has won their fair share of low-scoring games and although they’d prefer it to be a little higher scoring, they won’t have any problem grinding it out with the Spartans for 40 minutes.
One thing I noticed when analyzing this game was the discrepancy in fouls for the UConn Huskies. It’s amazing to think they lead the nation in both fouling the opponent and drawing fouls. Their foul differential per game is +8.5 which is tops in the nation and could be the difference yet again.
UConn is playing for a little respect in this one. They came in as the “weakest” of the #1 seeds, yet they’ve played as good as any of them in this tournament and I believe they match up against the Spartans better than they matched up against Missouri. Look, I respect what the Spartans were able to do getting this far, and I’m fully aware of this so called “home court advantage” they have playing 78 miles from campus, but UConn fans travel well and the last I heard, they sell the same amount of tickets to every school.
As good as Goran Suton has played inside, he hasn’t seen anyone like Hasheem Thabeet and I believe he’s in for a rude awakening. The only chance Suton has of being successful in this game is to take him away from the basket and hit perimeter shots. And since he was unconscious last weekend vs. Louisville, I can’t, for the life of me, believe he’s in for another game like that. UConn is talented at every position and is every bit as deep as MSU.
They play in a better conference and just seem to be a more complete team right now. We’re only asking them to give a few points tonight and I’m all over that. UConn has covered four straight vs. a team with a SU winning record and I expect that run to continue tonight. UConn wins 78-70.
Teddy June
Knicks
Hawks
Bucks Private Players
UCONN
Jake Timlin
1000♦ Connecticut Huskies
Tipping off the day first I say go with Connecticut minus the points. Yes despite playing what amounts to a road game against Michigan State here today I look for the Huskies prevail in will be a burial blowout given the lower then expect number. You see for Connecticut they are in great shape today thanks to their advantage down low and even in the back court with point guard Price running the show as it’s the Huskies overall talent edge I see dominating the Spartans today. Plus, at 4-0 all-time in the final four it’s tough to fade Jim Calhoun who will not be outcoached by Tom Izzo. Meanwhile, for the Spartans while deserving of being in Detroit this weekend due to them not matching up with the Huskies front court of Thabeet, Adrien and Robinson I look for a quick exit for Michigan State. Bottom line, this year’s title game is all set up for the two best teams to meet which includes the Huskies winning the opening game of the night in a blowout.
All Connecticut minus the points!
200♦ North Carolina Tar Heels
No miracle this time around for the Wildcats as North Carolina is just too big, fast and talented. Yes in game that the line could very well be 12 or more points I look for the Wildcats to run out of gas all due to the fact that they just don’t match up with the Tar Heels. Not when Villanova is going to run four guards at North Carolina who will be able to match up with the Wildcats with the normal starting line and thus giving the Tar Heels a huge advantage both on the boards and down low with Thompson & Hansbrough and thus force the Wildcats outside where UNC actually plays defense as evidence to holding Oklahoma to 2 of 19 shooting for the arc in their last game. Bottom line, North Carolina has yet to be tested this tournament and I don’t see it happening today. With that take North Carolina minus the points as they march into the title game a double digit winner.
All North Carolina!
Michael Cannon
30 DIME - CONNECTICUT
10 DIME - NORTH CAROLINA
Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line (-) @ Nashville
This is one of those classic cases of getting great line value based on historical data. Yes, the Blue Jackets have lost ten straight visits to Nashville but, right now, with the way Columbus has been playing and with the way the Predators have been playing, is this really all that significant? Of course not! Some will play it out to be that way but it’s just not the case! Historical data has the key word “history” behind and here, we capitalize on that. This line will be held “in check” today because of some Predators money that will flow in and this is what gives us even more value with Columbus. Note that the Blue Jackets are the more skilled offensive team and this is particularly true right now because of a number of injury problems that are hurting the Predators. Nashville is currently without Jason Arnott, David Legwand, and Martin Erat. They have lost back to back games and rookie Cal O’Reilly, is the only guy to score a goal in either of their last two games. That’s not exactly a sign of remaining veteran leadership stepping up, is it? The fact is that the Predators are damaged goods right now and, with seeing their season now slipping away, we could easily see Nashville struggling to mount the effort, both physical and mental, that would be necessary to knock off the Blue Jackets here! Columbus is certainly a team on a mission as they seek their first playoff appearance in franchise history. Coach Ken Hitchcock has done a fantastic job with this club and they outshot the Predators 35 to 21 in their most recent game, on Tuesday. The Blue Jackets are well rested and, conversely, the Predators were in Chicago last night where they lost to allow Chicago to clinch a playoff spot for the first time in seven years! Playing in a back to back right now, as an injury-depleted club, is the last thing that the Predators need right now but that’s the task in front of them here. Just as they helped the Blackhawks secure a berth in the playoffs last night, the Predators will also help the Blue Jackets get a step closer tonight. Yes, the game is in Nashville tonight but, other than that, the set-up and situational edges here lie cleanly with the Blue Jackets. The Preds are hurt and stumbling, the Jackets have earned points in 10 of their last 12 games. They’re proving themselves during this playoff push and it continues tonight! Play Columbus on the money line as a regular selection.
1* (regular play) Anaheim Ducks Money Line (+) @ San Jose
The Sharks have been managing to win despite being dealt a rash of injuries. However, a closer look shows that they have been quite fortunate with recent scheduling and that has certainly helped them overcome the injury issues! The Sharks are 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. However, prior to that, San Jose had lost seven of their last eleven games! Also, let’s now take a closer look at this recent run where the Sharks have overcome injuries to win six of their last eight games! Note that San Jose’s wins came against Nashville (likely to miss playoffs), Dallas/Colorado/Phoenix (all 3 will miss playoffs), and Calgary/Edmonton (both teams were slumping when Sharks faced them). Again, the Sharks deserve some credit for overcoming injuries to get these wins. However, they now face their toughest yet! Visiting San Jose is division rival Anaheim and they seem hell bent on making sure they make the playoffs. The Ducks could have “packed it in” a few weeks ago. Instead they got red hot and have gone on a 8-1 run to surge back into the playoff picture. Their power plays has simply been insanely hot and, in what is projected to potentially be a tight game, the importance of special teams is very significant. The Ducks are simply on fire right now and their power play as well as their overall offense could play a key role here. The Sharks just don’t have the offensive firepower right now (injuries have literally “hurt” them) and they certainly don’t merit being in this high of a price range. What we get in grabbing the Ducks here as about a +150 dog is a club whose last 9 games included 8 wins by a combined score of 37 to 19. They have a goalie, Jonas Hiller, who was red hot before struggling against Vancouver on Thursday. They also have the big offensive edge as the Sharks have only scored 9 goals in their last four games! Yes, San Jose has been “finding a way” to survive without key players but that test become s much tougher against a Ducks team that is simply loaded with confidence right now. Anytime you have a power play clicking and guys like Niedermayer and Pronger leading the way, you’re an opponent no one wants to face! We’ll gladly grab the line value here with the Ducks! Play Anaheim on the money line as a regular selection.
SMTM Sports Picks
3* Villanova +7
2* Uconn -4
1* Orlando Magic -2
RON RAYMOND
5* Lightning / Islanders Under 5.5
Nashville Predators -110
Canucks / EOilers Over 5.5
Larry Ness
20* Perfect Storm - UNC