Alex Smart
Atlanta Hawks -6.0
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
Reason: The Atlanta Hawks have played well at home this season, and are feeling the need for a win here tonight , after a tumultuous road trip that saw them lose 4 of 5 games on a western swing. The Hawks as I mentioned , are a solid home team, covering 7 of their L/10 as hosts , and will in my humble opinion be able to take out a New Jersey team that is on tired legs after notching a rare road win last night for the first time in 8 tries , by beating a sleepy looking Miami Heat squad. Play on Atlanta
LT Profits
Air Force +4.5
The Air Force Falcons and TCU Horned Frogs are pretty evenly matched, which automatically gives value to the Air Force as underdogs in this spot.
Both of these teams are 11-8 straight up, and they have similar records against the spread, with TCU at 6-6 ATS and Air Force 6-7-1. TCU does have a higher average winning margin, winning by +4.1 points per game compared to +1.8 points for Air Force, but that is not enough to justify this spread.
This game may come down to the intangibles, and Air Force has revenge on their minds after getting upset by TCU as 10-point favorites when these clubs last met last season. That snapped a four-game winning streak for the Falcons in this head-to-head series.
We look for Air Force to get there revenge here and resume their winning ways in the series.
CBB Free Pick: Air Force +4.5
Long Beach State +4.5
The Long Beach State 49ers may not be a very good basketball team, but this looks like a rare winnable spot for them as a home underdog vs. the UC Irvine Anteaters tonight.
After all, could UC Irvine really be trusted as decided road favorites? The Anteaters are just 8-12 straight up, and they are a dismal 1-8 on the road while losing by an average of -8.7 points per game. Also, it is Long Beach State that has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools.
Now the 49ers are 4-15 SU overall, but all four wins have come at home where they are a much more respectable 4-4, and they are only getting outscored by an average of -1.7 points per game in their own building, good enough to cover this spot.
Perhaps most surprisingly, Long Beach State is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games, so do not be surprised if they have a winning record at home once this night is over.
CBB Free Pick: Long Beach State +4.5
Dr Bob
Opinion
TOLEDO (+7) over Kent State
Toledo is not as good this season as they usually are, but the Rockets continue to win at home. Toledo has won 18 consecutive conference home games (14-3-1) and the Rockets are 37-4 straight up hosting MAC teams going back further. Kent has been playing great lately (3 straight wins and spread wins), but the Golden Flashes could be due for a letdown given that they are just 1-9-1 ATS under coach Jim Christian as a favorite of 4 points or more after covering the spread in their last 3 games. I'll lean with Toledo at +6 points or more.
Opinion/Possible Best Bet
La Salle (+19 1/2) over XAVIER
La Salle has been much better on the road (24-13-1 ATS) than at home (12-22-1 ATS) and much better as an underdog (31-19-1 ATS) than as a favorite (8-19-2 ATS) in 4 seasons under coach John Giannini and the Explorers are 11-4 ATS as a road underdog of more than 11 points. Xavier, meanwhile, is only 1-6 ATS under Sean Miller as a conference home favorite of 14 points or more after a victory, including 0-2 ATS this season. In addition to the team trends, La Salle applies to a 41-12 ATS subset of a 168-83-2 ATS big road underdog momentum situation. Unfortunately, my ratings favor Xavier by 20 1/2 points and I don't want to give up a full point of line value to make this game a Best Bet. I'll lean with La Salle at +19 or more and I'll take La Salle in a 2-Star Best Bet at +20 points or more and for 3-Stars at +21 or more.
Billy Coleman
5* Cal Poly
4* Bradley
3* Creighton
3* Cal St Full
4* Under Orlando
3* Orlando
AleX Smart
3*Cal Poly
2* Flor and Drake under
Game Time Sports Advisors
10*Miss St
10*Marquette
5* Pitt
5* StL
5* Cal
4* Miami Fla
Wunderdog
Game: Florida at Arkansas (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arkansas -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This young Gator team has only ventured out on the road four times all season, and has found out life is different on the road as they have met two losses and a narrow escape in those four games. The Gators shoot over 50% on the season, but hold on! They are connecting on just 43% on the road and just 32% from behind the arc. Florida?s numbers look good, due to so much home cookin?, but the reality is the road has been completely different. They have yielded 53%, and 54% in their two road contests in the SEC. Arkansas is very tough at home, as witnessed by 20-point drubbing of Mississippi State. The Razorbacks are allowing under 40% at home and Florida hasn't found the nets as friendly on the road. Arkansas will deliver another blow to the Gators? road woes.
Game: Saint John's at South Florida (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on South Florida -5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Saint John's is really struggling to find their way. They have yet to find the win column on the road and are shooting just 41% on the season. The offense is Anthony Mason Jr., and four guys standing around. It has led to 296 turnovers to just 203 assists - one of the worst ratios in college basketball. South Florida has proven one thing, and that is they can't play at home against the upper half of the conference, but they sure can play anyone else. This team can move the ball much better and execute its offense better than St. John's, and also has the interior option, where St. John's gets limited looks. We would be surprised if St. John's can hang within double-digits here. Bulls in a rout!
Game: Drake at Indiana State (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indiana State +3 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Drake is on an impressive 18-0 run and certainly has the look of a dangerous mid-major come tourney time. Conference play has been tilted in their favor with six of their last nine games on the home hardwood. They have shown lots of vulnerability on the road, as their last three games has been decided by OT, one point and three points. Indiana State is two different basketball teams. On the road they have been 1-10, getting blown out in virtually every game, but at home they have played like a top 25 team standing at 9-0. They hit a lot of their FT's which could be crucial down the stretch (72% as a team). The Sycamores have not failed to cover in their last five as home dog and should be amped up enough to make this one be decided in the closing minutes. Live home dog here.
Game: Bradley at Evansville (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Bradley -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Bradley had high expectations this season, but most of those disappeared when PG Ruffin went down with an injury. To that point they had lost just four games, with three of them coming against nationally-ranked teams. They proceeded to lose five straight with Ruffin out of the lineup, but he is back, playing full minutes, and suddenly the Braves have run off four straight. They beat Evansville without him at home, despite the Aces sizzling from long range connecting on 11-17 for 65%! You can be sure with Ruffin defending out on the perimeter that won't happen again and the Aces don't have much else. The Purple Aces are just 1-8 in conference play and Bradley presents some value here, as they would be coming in with a much better record than they actually have if Ruffin did not go down. We have seen the Aces output reduced to nothing when the three-pointers don't fall, as witnessed by the 39 total points they scored against Southern Illinois, and 42 against Indiana State. After the bombing in the last match, you can be sure those open looks will disappear in this one and Bradley cruises to their fifth-straight win.
Game: Arizona State at U S C (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona State +8 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The injuries are cutting into USC?s depth, and a tough stretch of games may leave them vulnerable against a competent Arizona State team. The Sun Devils are off of a major hiccup against UCLA and will regroup and bring their "A" game to Southern California. Lots of talent on the floor with lots of shooters, and the Sun Devils execute on defensive end as well. USC has played some very tough opponents, and may not bring it against this Sun Devils squad that has lost four straight. Trojans are just 4-4 in their last eight as well, have the marquis names and an inflated line. Too many points, the Sun Devils get the cover here.
The Killer Move's picks for Saturday:
10* Utah/Memphis OVER (NBA)
20* Ohio State/Iowa UNDER (CBB)
10* Iowa (CBB)
10* Washington (CBB)
10* Davidson/Tenn Chattanooga UNDER (CBB)
Sports Bank
500* Mismatch Goy
Washington State
PREFERRED PICKS
4* MISS STATE
3* Baylor, ILLl State, Iowa
Wolkosky Milan
10* NEW JERSEY +6½
10* INDIANA +3½
10* SACRAMENTO -8
10* ORL/IND UNDER 214½
10* UTA/MEM UNDER 208
10* CHI/SAC UNDER 200
SportsAction365
100* Miami-Fl +15.5
75* Florida +4.5
75* Dayton +7.5
75* Memmphis -21.5
50* Syracuse +4
50* LA Clippers +9
Pure Profit
Consensus...Baylor
High Roller...No Colorado
Power Play...San Diego
Money Move...Michigan State
Back Room...Iowa State
Diamond...Wisconsin Green-Bay
Gold Medal Club
CBB:
Fordham
Wyoming
Washington
Austin Peay
New Mexico
NHL:
Boston
Anaheim
Tampa -1.5