Marc Lawrence
Game: Mississippi at Arkansas
Play On: Mississippi
Note: Rebels travel to Fayetteville to take on the red-hot Razorbacks in a game Ole Miss suddenly needs like blood. After opening the season 12-0, Mississippi has dropped four of its last seven games to fall back into the SEC pack. Arkansas checks in riding a 3-0 SU & ATS win streak, fresh off a revenge win over defending national champion Florida. That's the tip of the 'bad news iceberg' for the Hogs, as they are 1-9 ATS in games after the Gators, including 0-5 the last five. In addition they have another revenger up next against Tennessee. That's more bad news, however, as Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in games before facing the Vols. Toss in Ole Miss' 11-1-2 ATS mark with revenge in this series, including 5-0-1 ATS on this court, and you can see where we're going here. The Red Cross arrives in the nick of time for the Rebels. Grab the points with the underdog with the better record here today.
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Los Angeles Kings
Reason: The Kings are playing a lot better of late and have won 3 of their last 4 games. Their last win came against the league leading Detroit Red Wings. The Kings are 5-1 in their last 6 games played after 1 day rest between games. The Penguins haven't been anything special going 5-5 in their last 10 games. Piitsburgh is 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win. LA is 5-0-1 in their last 6 trips to Pittsburgh. The Penguins are 1-7-1 in the last meetings overall between the clubs. Play on the Kings +.
Dave Cokin
Indiana State @ 636 Wichita State
Play: Indiana State +5
Indiana State is clearly not a good road team, but here's a spot where the Sycamores have a real shot to grab a win. Wichita State continues to struggle badly, and their only hope of salvaging a brutal season will come in the MVC Tournament. I can't see the Shockers laying even a medium price as is the case here. Indiana State plus the points.
Matt Fargo
Illinois Chicago vs. Loyola Chicago
Play: Illinois Chicago
Looking at the home/road records for Illinois-Chicago makes a road play seem a little confusing but it is the right side. The Flames are 10-1 at home and just 2-6 on the road that record away from home can be looked at in a few ways. It includes some extremely tough opponents including Butler, Valparaiso, Akron and Illinois St. who happen to be a combined 44-6 at home. One of those road wins came at DePaul who certainly is no powerhouse but it is from the Big East.
Another way to look at it is to compare to the opponents home record and Loyola-Chicago comes in with a 7-5 record at home which is nothing to brag about. It is rather below average for a home floor mark as it also includes two wins against Division II teams. The Ramblers have won three straight games so they do come in with some solid momentum and confidence and while they are also playing for some payback, this is a big city rivalry where revenge can be thrown out the door.
The Flames own the country’s third-best percentage from behind the three-point line at 42.3 percent. This is not good news for the Ramblers as their defense allows opponents to hit 38.5 percent from long range which is 296th in the country. Illinois-Chicago shot 38.9 percent in the first meeting. On the other side, the Ramblers are hitting 28.2 percent from long range which is 333rd in the nation. They shot 35.3 percent in that first meeting so we should not be expecting to see any more of that nonsense.
At 6-5 in the Horizon, this is a big game for the Flames as a victory puts them into a tie for third place while a loss puts them in a tie for 6th. The first four spots are huge since those teams get to host the first round of the conference tournament. The Flames are 9-8 against the Ramblers on Loyola’s home court, having won four of the last five meetings at the Gentile Center. As mentioned, home court is not that huge here to begin with and when it was bigger for the Ramblers, Illinois-Chicago was still able to solve it.
With the Flames being the higher ranked team (117 to 190) and a short line, it sets up a great situation favoring Illinois-Chicago. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive covers as a favorite and have won between 45 and 55 percent of their games on the season. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +5.6 ppg. This has covered 11 of 13 times over the last three seasons and we add to it here in the first instance of 2008. Play Illinois-Chicago Flames 1 Unit
Larry Cook
Northwestern vs. Michigan State
3* on Michigan State -19
Michigan State gets the luxury of going up against the worst team in the Big Ten conference Saturday. Coming off a bad road loss at Penn State will have the Spartans fired up and ready to go at home today. Northwestern comes to town and will likely suffer their worst loss of the season. The Wildcats have yet to earn a win in Big Ten play this season. They are 0-9 in conference play and 3-6 ATS as well. Northwestern is 1-9 ATS in road games after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers since 1997. Michigan State’s pressure defense will force many turnovers and easy buckets in transition for their play-makers such as Ramar Morgan. Bet Michigan State at home.
Alex Smart
Duquesne @ La Salle o0.0
Reason: Duquesne enters into this tilt against the LaSalle playing their usual wide open style basketball averaging 85.2 PPG on offense. The Explorers are no pushovers themselves and can light the board up, as is evident by averaging over 74 PPG this season. Look for an expect a fairly high scoring run and gun affair that eclipses the total. Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 4-0 in Explorers last 4 home games.Over is 9-2 in Dukes last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Play OVER
Jimmy Boyd
Boston College vs. Duke
Take Boston College Eagles
1 Unit on Boston College +19.5 Duke is good, but not nearly 20 points better than BC good. The Dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and will be the winner again here. It is going to be very difficult for Duke to get up for this one after a highly emotional win over UNC. The Blue Devils just aren't going to be able to match the same intensity and even if they did, I'm not sure they could win by 20 today. There's no doubt that BC is struggling, but they'll bring their "A" game against Duke to try to hit the big target on its back. BC is 11-1 ATS in road games after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The defense gets turned up a notch by BC here and the result will be a cover.
Jimmy Boyd
Baylor vs. Kansas
Take Baylor Bears
1 Unit on Baylor +18 The Baylor Bears finally get their chance to show the world that they are the real deal this season with a tough road contest at Kansas, the best team in all of the Big 12. Baylor is 17-4 on the year due to their experience with 5 starters back from last season and brilliant coaching from Scott Drew. The reason Baylor has a great chance hang with Kansas in this game is their ability to hit 3-pointers along with a big defensive presence inside with two 7-foot centers at their disposal. This presence won’t allow Kansas to get all the easy buckets they are accustomed to. Baylor averages 9 made 3-pointers per game, shooting at a stellar 38% clip. Baylor doesn’t mind going on the road where they have just one loss to seven wins and a 6-1 ATS road record. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Cash in with Baylor as the underdog.
Jeff Alexander
Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia
Take Philadelphia 76ers
1 Unit on 76ers -6 With as bad as the Clippers are this season, especially on the road, we'll side with Philly at home here. The Clippers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Clippers are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The 76ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 Saturday games. We'll take the 76ers against a fatigued Clippers squad.
Prpohetable Picks
Cal State Fulerton
Oregon
Gold Sheet Key Releases
Tulane by 11
G Mason by 9
K-State by21
POINTWISE
ARKANSAS over Mississippi RATING: 1
SETON HALL over Villanova RATING: 2
CONNECTICUT over Georgia Tech RATING: 2
PSYCHIC
3 units Notre Dame -4.5
3 units Connecticut -8
2 units Duquesne -3
2 units Seton Hall +5.5
2 units Auburn +5.5
DA STICK
Da Sticks ranks picks from 1-20
5 units Calgary Flames -190
5 units Philadelphia/New York under 5.5
5 units Nashville/San Jose over 5
ED CASH
Alabama at Kentucky
Recommendation: Kentucky
Believe it or not, the Kentucky Wildcats are playing about as
well as anyone in the SEC these days other than the Tennessee
Vols. However, when you consider that the Wildcats just
beat Tennessee a couple of weeks ago, that statement might
be true without the extra qualifier. Kentucky obviously got off
to a rough start, as they fought through injuries and an adjustment
to new coach Billy Gillispie’s methods. The injuries probably
prolonged that adjustment period, but the reasons that
Billy G was hired by Kentucky are becoming more and more obvious
as the season progresses. The Cats are playing very tough
defense and the offense continues to impress as well. Ramel
Bradley is quietly having a terrific year and the big freshman,
Patrick Patterson, is a load down low. Now even bench players
like Perry Stevenson are chipping in on offense and the Cats are
on a three-game winning streak while owning a 4-2 tally in SEC
play. They could very easily be 6-0 in the league, with their two
losses coming on the road at Florida in overtime and at Mississippi
State in a nail-biter. They should be able to continue their
momentum at home against a poor Alabama team. The Tide has
beaten only LSU and Auburn in league play, with both wins coming
at home. Alabama is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS as an underdog
this season, showing they cannot compete when they are the
lesser team. Take the Cats to get another win at Rupp Saturday.
BRENT CROW
Marquette at Notre Dame
Recommendation: Notre Dame
The Irish have once again been spectacular on their home floor
this season, winning all 13 of their games thus far. They finished
18-0 last year and look to continue their winning streak against
one of the worst road teams in the conference tonight. Marquette
finally got a road win in Big East play last Saturday with
their victory over Cincinnati, their first in their last eight tries.
The Golden Eagles won despite another subpar performance by
Dominique James, who had just eight points on 2-9 shooting.
Notre Dame will have some added incentive to win this game after
losing at Marquette earlier this year by a 92-66 score, their
worst loss of the season. It should be a different story in South
Bend, however, where Notre Dame shoots 47% from the field
and allows just 39% by its opponents. Big man, Luke Harangody
had a tremendous game in the earlier loss at Marquette, scoring
29 points and grabbing 14 rebounds against the undersized
Marquette front line. However, the Irish were ice cold from the
three-point line, hitting just 4-of-19 attempts while Marquette
was scorching hot, hitting 12-of-24. The Eagles hit just 26% of
their threes on the road this year, so don’t expect them to repeat
that performance in South Bend. Notre Dame has been a
little overpriced at home recently, failing to cover in its last two
wins, but with Marquette ranked in the Top 20 and coming in on
a win streak, the Irish should be priced right to get the cover.
Brandon Lang
20 Dime: Louisville
10 Dime: Tulane
10 Dime: Wisconsin-Green bay
5 Dime: Baylor
5 Dime: Missouri
FREE PICK - Kansas State
DAVID JONES
Utah at Sacramento
Recommendation: Over
The Utah Jazz will conclude their season series with the
Kings on Friday night in Sacramento. The home team has
won in the three previous games this season and all three
contests have gone over the total. The total scores in the
three matchups have been 210, 224, and 240 for an average
total score of 225. Utah entered the month of February
with the top team field goal percentage in the NBA. The offense
is very efficient. Forward Carlos Boozer (22 ppg.) and
guard Deron Williams have combined to form one of the best
inside-out scoring tandems in the league. Utah can score effectively
in half court sets or in transition. The Jazz went
14-9 to the Over in their first 23 road contests. Utah has
struggled with their defense away from home by allowing 10
more points per game in comparison to their home defensive
figures. The Kings went over the total in six of their last seven
home games heading into February. With a fully healthy
squad, Sacramento’s offense has developed a nice flow.
Guard Kevin Martin (24 ppg) leads a deep Sacramento team
that features six players averaging double-digits. The Kings
have averaged 112 ppg on offense in those seven contests.
Five of the seven games had a total score of 216 or higher.
Look for another shootout between these squads in their final
meeting of the regular season as we side with the Over.
ROB VENO
James Madison at UNC Wilmington
Recommendation: Wilmington
With a projected pointspread of somewhere in the -6.5 range toward
the host, this seems like a solid opportunity to play the good
side of two teams moving in opposite directions. For the homestanding
Seahawks, it has been a strong 5-1 straight up and ATS
run that has boosted them right into the upper echelon of the
Colonial Athletic Association. In five of the six contests, Wilmington
has decisively outshot their opponents from the floor and
the only time they didn’t, they were still able to come up with a
straight up home win over George Mason. The senior laden unit
(4 of the 5 starters are seniors) has been led by 6-10 center Vladmir
Kuljanin who is averaging a double-double this season (65.7
FG%). Cohesiveness and offensive diversity have been terrific as
all four seniors are averaging double figures in points scored and
UNCW’s inside-outside abilities have really begun to sting opponents
(49.7 FG% during six-game run). For Madison, it’s been the
exact opposite as ever since their 93-74 rout of this NC-Wilmington
team back on January 12, they’ve gone 0-6 SU/ATS losing by
nine or more in four of those games. The Dukes’ defense has fallen
apart as the opposition has shot 48% or better in five of the last
six games. Ball handling has been a nightmare for the smallish
JMU contingent as their five starters have combined for 214 assists
and 278 turnovers. Expect NC-Wilmington to exact revenge
in resounding fashion against this reeling James Madison squad.
SONNY PALERMO
Memphis at New Orleans
Recommendation: Under
We hit the last two here in the newsletter, Denver over NJ in the NBA
on 1/25, and last week we got dog odds at +115 on Manning to go
Over 232.5 yards. The schedule maker has been very unaccommodating
in setting up situations that are agreeable for profile (leaguebased)
spots for me, so I’ve been looking for trends (plays particular
to specific teams.) And I have one I’ll be on in N’awlins on Saturday
night. The Memphis Grizzlies come to town after having played a Friday
night game in Dallas. Looking at some averages, I see Memphis
scores 101 points per game. That number drops to 97 points per game
on the road, but where we find real value is when they are on the
road in back-to-back situations. In this spot, Memphis’ average score
per game drops to 91, a 10-point drop off from their overall average.
This season, the Grizzled ones have seen two spots that found them
on the road, back-to-back, needing to beat home teams spurred on
by weekend crowds (there is ALWAYS a higher energy level coming
from Friday and Saturday night home fans, fueled by release from
the work week.) At Utah on Saturday after at Portland on Friday
brought a 24-point loss, and Saturday at Atlanta after Friday at N.O.
saw an 8-point loss. ALL FOUR of Memphis’ back-to-backs games
have gone Under this season and I’m playing the UNDER again here.
ERIN RYNNING
San Antonio at Boston
Recommendation: Under
The Spurs continue their annual ‘Rodeo Trip’ with a stop in Boston
to challenge the Celtics on Sunday. Will this be the NBA
Finals preview? Well, you never know as both teams have the
talent and experience to represent their respective conferences
in June. Again, the Spurs are mired in a monster road
trip, which has actually brought this team together over the
years. This team certainly feels different with perhaps age or
comfort setting with the Spurs simply losing games they’ve won
over recent editions. Point guard Tony Parker will be a question
mark for this contest. With him out of the fold, the play
towards the Under becomes even stronger. Jacque Vaughn
or Damon Stoudamire just can’t push the pace like Parker or
penetrate the paint, which makes this offense much more efficient.
This team has actually gone more ‘big’ of late, which
again also slows down the pace. In addition, after a recent string
of losses Tim Duncan talked about the Spurs getting back to
the basics, while stressing defense over everything else. Meanwhile,
the Celtics flexed their muscle early, while coasting more
of late with already an eye for the postseason. However, when
the Celtics have an important game on their schedule, I expect
this team to revert to their overwhelming defense, which was
the catalyst for this team in the early going. Kevin Garnett figures
to play in this game after missing a few games recently.
Of course, he’s the glue to this defense, while his post-up play
slows down the game a bit on offense as well. Play this contest
Under the total in what figures to be a grind-it-out affair.
Maddux Sports
Bradley +6
Pure Lock Free Plays
Play On: Florida (-) Pts