Smart Money
ALABAMA
Alatex
15* Bradley +6
Bob Akmens CBB Totals
6* Ark St over 144-
3* Wyoming over 139-
3* Cal irv under130-
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR):
#527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 vs DELAWARE
Play: #527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #527 VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH -7 (CBB)
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): GEORGIA vs #550 FLORIDA
Play: #550 FLORIDA -12 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #550 FLORIDA -12 (CBB)
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): #555 USC vs WASHINGTON STATE
Play: #555 USC +6 (CBB)
Comments: LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: #555 USC +6 (CBB)
Akmen
NHL
Vancouver Over 5
San Jose -160
Gavazzi/PPP
5* Ohio U, Bradley
4* San Diego St, Kansas St
Special K
20* Super K Louisville
20* G Tech
Keith Martin Sports
Utah U. Over 111.0
Usc Over 119.5
Boise State Under 163.5
Houston U. Pick'em FREE PLAY
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
SOUTH CAROLINA
Game: Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Game Time: 2/9/2008 5:00:00 PM Prediction: South Carolina Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. This is a huge game for the Gamecocks. With a victory, they can take over sole possession of fourth place in the SEC's Eastern Division and put worries about falling to the cellar behind them. South Carolina brings some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Two games ago, the Gamecocks handled Georgia here at home. They followed that up by going on the road and knocking off #24 Mississippi. That game was a full week ago though and the lengthy gap between games should help them in avoiding an emotional letdown from the big victory. In addition to playing for positioning within the conference, the Gamecocks will be playing with "revenge" as they were beaten by seven points at Vanderbilt last month. The Commodores were a perfect 15-0 at the time (16-0 after the win) but the Gamecocks gave them all they could handle. Indeed, the teams swapped the lead eight times with four ties in the second half alone. The Gamecocks also harassed Vanderbilt into 17 turnovers, 10 of those on steals. Note that South Carolina, which should have gained some confidence from playing the Commodores so tough on their home floor, covered the spread in that game and is now 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 meetings in this series. The Gamecocks also haven't forgotten last year's game here as they scored 90 points but lost in overtime. It's worth mentioning that the Gamecocks have fared well against top tier teams during the second half of the season the last few years. In fact, the win at Mississippi brought them to 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they faced a team with a winning record after at least 15 games of the season had been played. The Commodores, who come off a road win at Georgia on Wednesday, have not fared well over the years when coming off a conference victory. Indeed, they've gone a money-burning 24-49-1 ATS in that situation the past decade. Look for them to get caught looking ahead to Kentucky and Florida, falling to 1-5 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs.
IOWA STATE
Game: Texas vs. Iowa State Game Time: 2/9/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Iowa State Reason: I'm taking the points with IOWA STATE. The majority of the betting public will be quick to back the nationally ranked favorite here. However, I feel that this will be an extremely tough spot for the Longhorns, as they're coming off a big road win at Oklahoma and have a huge "Big Monday" showdown with Kansas on deck. That's followed by a string of other big games, including Baylor and a "revenge" game against Texas A&M. In other words, if they're ever going to look past a game, this will likely be the one. Despite the win at Oklahoma, the Longhorns are a very ordinary 3-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, note that the Longhorns are 1-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and that they're also just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they played a road game on a Saturday, including outright losses the last two times in that situation. The Cyclones, 4-0 SU in four home games on a Saturday this season, lost vs. Texas A&M in their last game here. However, they'd won nine straight here before that, including solid wins against the likes of Missouri and Oklahoma State already in 2008. They got leading scorer Wesley Johnson back in their last game and that will provide a major boost to the offense. With a game under his belt and a few more days of recovery time since then, Johnson should quickly start resembling the player that scored 20 or more points in four straight games before his injury. Even if that doesn't prove to be the case, the Cyclones are also a team that can dominate defensively. In fact, they allow just 56.8 points per game on this floor. The Cyclones hoped to finish in the top half of the Big 12 this year. In order to have any realistic shot of doing so, they need to score the upset this afternoon. The Longhorns won here in 2006. However, they're still just 2-5 at Hilton Coliseum and they've never won consecutive games here. The Cyclones have long been a profitable team when facing quality opposition, going 118-90 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record over the past decade. That includes an impressive 75-50 ATS (60%) mark when facing teams with a winning record after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Look for them to be at their best this afternoon, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of eight points or less. *Big 12 GOY
WISCONSIN
Game: Purdue vs. Wisconsin Game Time: 2/9/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. I wasn't surprised when the Boilermakers upset the Badgers at Purdue a couple of weeks ago. In fact, I released Purdue as my Big 10 Game of the Year. With the full support of their boisterous home fans behind them, the young Boilermakers managed a 60-56 victory. Winning at home is an entirely different matter from winning at Wisconsin though! Indeed, the Boilermakers haven't won here since Feb. 7, 1996, losing eight straight games here during that stretch. Those eight losses weren't generally close either as they came by an average of 14.4 points per game. During that time period, the Boilermakers are just 48-74-3 ATS as underdogs, including a 1-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. The Badgers are 15-10-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Overall, they've gone a profitable 83-63-5 ATS (57%) in home lined games since Purdue last beat them here. From a "SU" perspective, we find the Badgers at 104-6 at the Kohl Center under seventh-year coach Bo Ryan, including a 50-2 record in the Big Ten. Illinois is the only conference team to defeat Wisconsin on its home floor during that span. When the Badgers lost at Purdue, they didn't get their normal contribution from anyone except senior center Brian Butch. The Badgers manage more points per game at home though while the Boilermakers allow seven more per game on the road than they do at home. Getting some "payback" should be "extra important" here as the Badgers were on a 10-game winning streak prior to the loss at Purdue and that loss also represents the lone blemish on their 9-1 conference record. I expect the revenge-minded Badgers, who allow a mere 52.4 points per game on this floor, to deliver a highly focused team effort en route to a double-digit victory. *Revenge Game of the Month
BEN BURNS
NBA
76ERS
Game: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The situation favors the 76ers here. While Philadelphia had last night off, the Clippers were busy scoring a hard-fought upset win at Toronto. In addition to the "back to back situation," they are also now playing their third game in the past four nights and their sixth different road game through the first nine nights of February. That's a pretty gruelling schedule, particularly for a team still dealing with serious injury issues. As Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy noted: "We've had a revolving door with our injuries, one to the next..." While the Clippers played hard last night, it's worth noting that they're already out of the playoff race. That makes it a little difficult when "digging deep" to find the motivation necessary to keep on fighting on road-weary legs. Note that the Clippers have just one win the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games. Most recently, they lost by 14 points at Cleveland. Despite last night's victory, the Clippers remain a poor 3-6 ATS their last nine games. Conversely, the 76ers are still in the playoff race in the East and are also playing their best right now, having recorded back to back victories and going 5-1 ATS their last six games overall. The 76ers lost by one point when the teams faced each other here on this exact day last season. However, the Clippers weren't playing the second of back to back games, they weren't yet out of the playoff race (win brought them to 25-25) and they got big contributions from both Livingston and Brand, neither whom will play this evening. Additionally, a closer look shows that the 76ers had won nine straight home series meetings before that, going a profitable 7-2 ATS. While the Clippers have lost six of seven Saturday games, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and an impressive 23-8-1 ATS their past 32. They come off a dominant 17 point win over Miami last time out, allowing only 84 points. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-2-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season and 15-8-2 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. Look for the 76'ers to be both the hungrier and fresher team, avenging last year's loss and resuming their homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
UNDER hornets/grizzlies
Game: Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 2/9/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Hornets and Grizzlies to finish UNDER the number. Its true that these teams have played some pretty high-scoring games against each other already this season. However, the dynamics have changed for tonight's matchup and I'm expecting a much different result. I played on the Grizzlies to finish below the number yesterday. At the time I said: "The Grizzlies are going through an adjustment period right now, getting used to some new faces in the lineup along with the departure of Gasol and Swift. Consequently, they've failed to reach triple-digits in either of their two games without Gasol. Note that those two games came at home, where the Grizzlies score seven more points per game than they do on the road. Additionally, note that they came against a pair of defenses which allow an average of 103.3 (Bucks) and 103.9 (Jazz) points per game on the road." The Grizzlies would go to finish with a mere 81 points. They did play solid defense though, holding the Mavs to just 92. Not surprisingly, the final score would finish UNDER the number by more than 25 points. Playing the second of back to back road games, I expect the Grizzlies to once again have some trouble scoring points. As mentioned, they don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home. That's led to the UNDER going 15-6-1 in their 22 road games. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played a road game after having played the previous day. The Hornets come off a very high-scoring (132-130) game. However, that was vs. one of the best offenses in the league (Phoenix) and 40 of those points came in the two overtime sessions. Its also worth noting that the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 7-3 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and 11-4-1 after scoring 105 or more. They've faced four quality teams (Suns, Warriors, Kings, Jazz) their last four times out and they've given up a lot of points. They'll be happy to "step down in class" and face an offense which is struggling. I expect them to make the most of it by playing well defensively and for the final combined score to fall beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip
BEN BURNS
HOCKEY
CALGARY
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Oilers "held serve" on home ice when these teams faced each other at Edmonton last Monday. Despite that result, the Flames have the better record and I feel that they're the stronger team. They'll be highly motivated to avoid getting swept by their provincial rivals and I expect an extremely focused effort. Tonight's over/under line is listed at 5o35 or 5o40. Its interesting to note that the Oilers are just 10-18 the past few seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of five or less. During the same stretch, the Flames were a healthy 35-14 (+10.3) when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. At first glance this price does seem pretty steep and it's normally a bit out of my price range. However, when we consider that the Flames are 9-3 with one tie the last 13 times they were a host in this series and that they were laying anywhere from -190 up to as high as -390 in the last five of those games, today's price seems considerably more reasonable. Look for the Flames to get back on track, avenge last week's loss and earn an important two points against their most hated rivals. *Big Chalk Game of the Month
PowerPlaywins
Notre Dame -5.5
Kentucky -5
Kansas St. -10
Golden State over 224
CASH & PROFIT EXPERTS
CBB:
MARQUETTE/NOTRE DAME OVER 148.5 (POD)
GEORGETOWN +3 COMP
LT Profits
Virginia +4.0
Both the Virginia Cavaliers and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are having disappointing seasons in the ACC, but in a game we rate a toss up, the value lies with the Cavaliers getting points here.
Besides, Virginia will be anxious to erase the memory of Thursday’s embarrassing 31-point home loss to Clemson, so we look for a more inspired effort from them today. While Clemson is one of the better teams in the conference, Wake Forest represents a drop in class for the Cavs here, and the Deacons lost their aura of invincibility at home when they had their 16-game home winning streak snapped by Georgia Tech on Wednesday.
Wake Forest actually has a losing 3-5 straight up record in conference play, and as dominant as they have been at home out of conference, they are just 2-2 against the spread in their conference home games while winning those contests by just +3.8 points per game. Even that figure is skewed by a 17-point win over Florida State, as Wake’s other two ACC home wins have both been by exactly two points.
We do not expect this game to be decided until the final buzzer, so getting these points with Virginia should prove valuable at the end.
CBB Free Pick: Virginia +4
Towson St. +5.5
The Towson State Tigers beat the Drexel Dragons by nine points at home last month, and we look for Towson to post another win here, this time as a road underdog.
Drexel is having a down year, and their 9-15 record does not tell the whole story. The Dragons are a woeful 4-15-2 against the spread overall, and they are just 2-10 straight up inside the Colonial Conference. Yes, both conference wins have come at home, but that still leaves Drexel at just 2-5 SU at home while losing those conference home games by an average of -4.3 points per game overall.
Now Towson State may be just 9-13 SU, but they actually have a winning 9-8 ATS mark overall, and while they are 5-7 in CAA play, that still puts them three games ahead of Drexel in the conference standings. They are also in good current form from a betting standpoint, going 3-1 ATS in their last four games following a covering loss at James Madison on Wednesday.
Add this all up, and Drexel looks like a very vulnerable favorite in this spot.
CBB Free Pick: Towson State +5.5
Dr. Bob
Saturday Daytime College Opinion/Possible Best Bet
Cincinnati (-2 ½) over RUTGERS
Cincinnati has been an underrated team since pointguard Jamuel Warren entered the starting lineup on December 8th. Warren missed the first 6 games of the season and came of the bench in his debut, but the Bearcats have been 11-3-1 ATS with Warren in the starting lineup, including 8-0-1 ATS after a loss (Cincy is coming off a loss to Marquette). Rutgers is just 6-14 ATS this season and has been playing particularly bad recently and my ratings favor Cincinnati by 5 points. I’ll lean with the Bearcats at -3 or -2 ½ points and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less.
WAYNE ROOT
Chairman - Wisconsin
Millionaire - Colorado
Money Maker - Wash St MM GOY
No Limit - TCU
Insiders Circle - Rutgers
Billionaire - Virginia
Perfect Play - S. Carolina
Pinnacle - Louisville
Sportbook Guru
10* Va Tech ML
Dayton ML
Tom Freese
No brainer Wisconsin
Blowout Wright State
Oddsmaker error SD State
Rocketman
3* Pacers
3* Penn
3* Evansville
FERRINGO Full Card
1-Unit Play. Take #518 Notre Dame (-4) over Marquette
The Irish are hot and we’re going to the well. Marquette has been an awful road team, going 3-9 ATS and losing three of their last four by an average of 17 points. Marquette shoots just 28 percent from 3-point land on the road and the hot-shooting Irish will get some revenge for a 26-point bludgeoning they took in Wisconsin earlier this season.
5-Unit Play. Take #658 Louisville (-2.5) over Georgetown
Note: This is our Game of the Week. I know it's a little low for a GOTW play but we're trying to keep it tight these days. This play is fine at 3.0 but start to bump it down a half-Unit or a Unit if it gets to 3.5 or 4.0.
Louisville is an unranked team favored over a team in the Top Ten. That should be a huge red flag, and there is good reason for it. The Cardinals are starting to shoot a bit better, and as long as they don’t do something ridiculous as go 4-for-20 from 3-point land then they could blow this one open early. They simply play much better at home – offensively and defensively – and they should be able to neutralize Georgetown’s size with their own big men underneath. Louisville is on a nice 7-2-1 ATS rush and is 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #645 Baylor (+18) over Kansas
Note: I do endorse this play at +17 because I expect it to be much closer. I would drop half a Unit after that and it becomes a 1.5-Unit Play at +14. Don't play it at less than that, but I don't think the number will drop that much.
Arizona, Depaul, and Loyola are the only three teams to cover in Lawrence this year. The thing they have that all of the other clubs who came in and took their beatings is some competency in the backcourt. They are perimeter-oriented clubs. So is Baylor. And then some. The Bears have a backcourt that can compete with Kansas for 40 minutes, and if they can keep their big men out of foul trouble they will be in this game, not just covering but with a chance to steal one. Baylor is getting the same amount of points that Missouri was getting without their best player. And the Tigers didn’t cover because of one missed layup. Baylor is getting five points less than Iowa State, a team they are twice as good as. Baylor is 7-1 ATS on the road (and their one loss was a garbage loss) and 9-3 ATS as an underdog. They’ve covered their last four trips to Kansas and the road team is 6-0 ATS in the series.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #542 Ohio (-4.5) over Western Michigan
The home team is 9-1 ATS in this series, with Ohio going 5-0 ATS as a host, and Western Michigan has been a weak road team all season long. Ohio came out flat in its last game at Eastern Michigan and had its worst shooting performance of the year. I think they got that game out of their system and bounceback with a strong performance. Ohio is 45-19-1 ATS at home, 27-11 ATS against a team with a road record, and 38-15-1 ATS on Saturdays.
2-Unit Play. Take #565 George Mason (-1.5) over Old Dominion
This just isn’t the same Old Dominion team that we’re used to and they should be getting a lot more points than this. The Monarchs are just 2-3 SU at home, losing to teams that aren’t better than Mason. Oh, and George Mason beat ODU by 33 points just two weeks ago. They aren’t going to win this one by 30 but they are going to win. They are on a 6-1-1 ATS run and the Monarchs are 0-7 ATS as a dog. The Patriots are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five at ODU. The only reason this play isn’t higher is because Mason pressed a lot against Drexel and may not have 100 percent to give. But Mason at 90 percent is still 10 points better than OD at 100.
ADDED SELECTIONS
2.5-Unit Play. Take #659 Purdue (+10) over Wisconsin
This line seems like it’s begging for Purdue money but we’re going to bite anyway. These two teams played a one-possession game at Purdue just last week and I think it’s because they are so evenly matched across the board. This Purdue team is tough. They will fight, they will scrap, and they have some athletes to get up and down the court and give the Badgers problems. Wisconsin has some serious free throw issues and they aren’t great at closing games out in the last 10 minutes. Purdue will hang around and make this a game and we should cash in the process.
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #639 Bradley (+11) over Illinois State AND Take #592 Nevada (-10.5) over Hawaii
The Wolfpack have turned out to be a much better team than I gave them credit for while Hawaii has become worse than I thought they would be. Hawaii is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games and 2-5 ATS in Nevada. Nevada has been strong as a favorite in this range and should lay another whooping on a conference bottom-feeder today.
Daniel Ruffin is back and the Braves are rolling. They’ve won five straight and this is just enough points where even if they lose they could still cover. Illinois State has to be a little disappointed after blowing it’s game against Drake earlier this week and I think Bradley can capitalize. I just think this is a one- or two-possession game between two of the better teams in the MVC and six points is about twice as many as Bradley should be getting.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #620 UNC-Wilmington (-7) over James Madison
James Madison is in a free fall since losing Kyle Swanston last month. They've dropped eight of 10 straight up and have covered just once in their last 10 outings. UNC-Wilmington is a senior-laden group and I don't think they will have any sort of letdown today against a team they have beaten nine of 10 times.
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: AND Take #572 Miami, OH (-5.5) over Central Michigan AND
Take #613 Mississippi State (-0.5) over Auburn
Favorites and road teams have been getting it done lately in the SEC. Auburn is short-handed and just isn't very good, while I think Mississippi State may be the second or third best team in the conference. They are 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 games in this series and the favorite is 12-2-1 ATS in this rivalry. I think MSU pulls away late and posts a relatively comfortable victory.
Here come the Redhawks. They have won and covered in four straight and they own the Chippewas, having won 10 straight in this series. The last five wins have all come by double-digits including last year’s 20-point beatdown at CMU. Miami’s defense has been playing better and with Michael Bramos back in the fold their offense is flexing. CMU’s last four road losses have been by an average of nearly 15 points apiece and I think they could get tossed around again today.
1-Unit Play. Take #672 UC-Santa Barbara (-7.5) over UC-Irvine
UCSB is coming off a big win over Fullerton and now has a rivalry/revenge game against Irvine. Santa Barbara is one of the few teams in the conference that have the size to handle Darren Fells on the inside and they face an Anteaters club that is still without leading scorer Patrick Sanders. Irvine is 2-9 on the road and UCSB is 11-2 at home.