Steve Merril
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 223.5/-105 Over Play Title:
Golden State enters off an embarrassing 114-108 home loss to Chicago on Thursday night. It was embarrassing because the Bulls played without their top three scorers Hinrich, Gordon, and Deng. Even without that firepower, the Warriors still allowed 114 points and things will not get any easier tonight as they’ll face a red-hot Sacramento offense that scored 117 points last night versus Utah.When these two teams met back in late November, Sacramento was without their floor leader Mike Bibby. He has since returned to the lineup and he will be able to get the Kings easy baskets tonight, which is something they did not get in the first meeting.Neither team shot well in that game as the Kings shot only 34.5% from the floor and 27.8% from 3-point land, while the Warriors shot just 41.6% from the floor and 25.8% from behind the arc. Had each team shot their normal percentages, my mathematical re-scoring model had the game totaling 229 points.The pace was extremely fast with a combined 176 shot attempts including an eye-popping 49 attempts from 3-point land, but the shots just weren’t falling. The pace will be lively tonight, and as long as the shots fall, this game should see plenty of points. Keep in mind the Over was 3-1 in the four meetings last year with an average score of 227½ points per game.
Play OVER the total.
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Boston College vs. Duke (NCAAB) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 19.5/-118 Boston College Play Title:
Sure, this one looks like a mismatch on paper, but the games aren’t played on paper and the Eagles have too much pedigree to take this many points in conference play. In fact, they have only done so (+18 dog or higher) two other times since 1997.
Despite their recent slump, Boston College is still one of the top 20 programs in college basketball over the last decade, and especially one of the nation’s best road teams as they have been 66-37 ATS in all road games the past eleven years under head coach Al Skinner. The Eagles are in a bit of a rebuilding year, but they will play this game with as much tenacity as any team has played all season, as they will view this as a chance to salvage their season.They were actually favored against the Blue Devils last season in Chestnut Hill, and after falling behind early, BC staged a huge comeback but came up just short. Despite five straight ACC losses, this actually is a fairly good matchup as they are defending the 3-point stripe at a 31% clip in conference play, and they shoot 71% from the free throw line on a lofty 24 attempts per game.Duke averages the most 3FG attempts in conference play, and their pressure defense puts teams on the line quite often (24 FTA per game). The Blue Devils also may be just a bit fat and happy off of their road upset win over rival North Carolina and also get caught looking ahead to a big game versus Maryland on deck.
Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Northern Iowa vs. Missouri State (NCAAB) - 8:30 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 Northern Iowa Play Title:
Northern Iowa played their worst game of the season on Wednesday night in their 74-50 loss at Creighton. Not only was it their worst loss of this season, but also their most lopsided loss in five years. “This (score) wouldn’t have crossed anybody’s mind,” said UNI head coach Ben Jacobson. “You can’t explain it,” senior Eric Coleman said. “We didn’t come out ready to play, and they did. They handled their business, and we didn’t. “We can’t let this one game take us back before we get hot again and win some more games,” Coleman said. “We’ve got to put this game out of our misery now and get back to winning.”The 74 points allowed by the Panthers was just the 3rd time this year an opponent scored more than 70 points. It won’t happen tonight, especially off the ugly loss, and that means Missouri State will have a hard time winning. In games in which they score less than 70 points, the Bears are only 3-9 straight-up and 1-11 against the spread this year. This team is a mess having lost 4 straight and 6 consecutive against the spread and the Bears fit a negative 17-48 ATS situation which plays against favorites that are on a 6+ game ATS losing streak.Northern Iowa is 6-2 ATS on the road, including 4-1 as a road underdog. UNI won the earlier meeting 70-55 this season, while holding Missouri State to just 31.1% (19-61) from the floor, and they should do the same here as they are the much better team. With the underdog and road team 8-2 against the spread over the last 10 meetings, we’ll grab the points.
Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Northwestern vs. Michigan State (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 19/-112 Northwestern Play Title:
Northwestern was an easy Best Bet winner for us last Sunday as a 19-point road underdog at Indiana, and this game tonight is a very similar situation.
Northwestern plays a slow-down, half-court style that should allow the Wildcats to keep the game close and stay within this large pointspread. Northwestern has an efficient offense that shoots 45.6% FG and averages 17 assists per game with only 11 turnovers. This is a good indicator for big underdogs and Northwestern fits a solid 42-15 ATS situation based on that premise.Northwestern head coach Bill Carmody is a solid 30-15 ATS in all February games the past seven season and his Wildcats will be looking to revenge a 78-62 loss two weeks ago. Michigan State shot 60% FG, 61% 3-pt, and 90% FT in that game and still won by just 16 points. It will be nearly impossible for the Spartans to shoot any better tonight, which will make it very difficult for them to win by 19 points or more.
Play NORTHWESTERN (+).
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Bradley vs. Illinois State (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 6/-109 Bradley Play Title:
The first “War on 74” of 2008 went to Bradley in upset fashion two weeks ago as the Braves pulled out a 1 point thriller which jump started them to a 5-0 SU/ATS run in conference play. On the surface, it would appear tonight’s line has not been adjusted enough as Illinois State was a 2-point road favorite in the first meeting and is now laying just 6 points at home. Keep in mind that it was not known if Bradley’s best player, point guard Daniel Ruffin, was making his return to the lineup that night after missing seven games with an injury.Ruffin is college basketball’s only 1,000 point/500 assist man, and he gave his team a tremendous emotional lift that night, and has been playing at a high level since his return. He is the single player most valuable to his team in the MVC, and is probably worth about 3.5-4 pts in line value. His replacement, freshman Sam Maniscalco matured as a point guard while filling in for Ruffin, and along with sharpshooter Jeremy Crouch, this is the Missouri Valley’s best backcourt.
Illinois State is right up there with the Braves battling for the title of 2nd best in the MVC behind Drake, but in all reality these two teams are very close, and with the Redbirds’ poor free throw shooting (59%) in conference play, along with the steady floor play of Ruffin and Bradley’s 41% three-point shooting, I just can't see them shaking the Braves here. Bradley takes this to the wire and an outright win would not be a surprise as the Braves are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS in the past six head-to-head meetings versus the Redbirds.
Play BRADLEY (+).
Handicapper: Steve Merril
Colorado State vs. UNLV (NCAAB) - 6:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: 20/-105 Colorado State Play Title:
It is rare to get this big of an underdog that actually possesses the better shooting offense, but that is the case today with Colorado State. The Rams are averaging 44.6% FG this season (versus opponents that allow just 43.6%), while UNLV shoots just 42.0% this season (versus opponents that allow 43.4%). CSU also holds the edge from three-point range as they average 34.5%, while UNLV hits just 32.9%.
Colorado State is coming off an embarrassing 40-point loss at New Mexico on Tuesday, but that defeat has actually created line value as my power ratings favor UNLV by just 18 points today. Colorado State also qualifies in a solid 53-22 ATS big underdog revenge situation which plays on huge underdogs that are coming off back-to-back double-digit SU losses. UNLV already beat Colorado State this season, 65-62, and the Runnin’ Rebels might get caught looking ahead to their big revenge game on deck versus Air Force.
Play COLORADO STATE (+).
GAMEDAY
4* Florida.
3*'s on Notre Dame and Pacific.
2*'s on Miami-Florida, NC State, Louisville
Chicago Sports Connection
Deleware +7
Wake Forest -4
Bradley +6
Will Cover
5* Lville
Red Dog
5* Ohio U
Kelso
50* South Florida
Sports Unlimited
10* Hofstra
7* Arkansas St.
WILL SYKES COMP
SACRAMENTO vs GS WARRIORS
SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: Warriors are one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. They've only lost two in a row once this season with Steven Jackson in the line up. The Warriors had a horrible game two nights ago against the Bulls, where they allowed 5 point average scoring players score 20 points that game, and to lose at home on Webbers' debut against one of the worst scoring team in the NBA with out 4 of their key players, was pretty ugly. You better believe Don Nelson was pissed after that game and has something in store for the Kings tonight. The Kings played a tough game on the road last night against the Utah Jazz, the Kings are a mediocre 5-5 ATS on back to back games. The Kings are also 4-2 ATS after more than a 3 game home stand then heading on the road, and those two games that they won ATS was against the New York Knicks and the Nuggets (where they were 14 point dogs). We keep it simple again tonight as we get back in the groove of things and grade this as a 1* play. So don't get psyched by those oddsmakers in thinking that the Kings are a great road team when the numbers show that they're 11-11 ATS on the road. Just stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched.
WARRIORS -7
Dennis Hill
South Fla +6 1/2
Duquesne-3 1/2
Miami-Fla+4 1/2
Philly-Connections
James Madison+8.5
Wunderdog COMP
Game: Sacramento at Golden State
Pick: Game Total OVER 224.5 -110
Golden State really has the offense cranking, producing over 100 on 13-straight home games, while averaging 113 points per game at home. They have played nine OVERS in their last 10 games, and in those nine OVERS, they have toppled the posted total by 10.5 ppg. Sacramento has played 11 of their last 15 over the total. Their recent 11-5 stretch has been due to playing more up-tempo, as they went from a team averaging under 100 points a game to one scoring 107 in these last 16. The pace has also shown up on the defensive end as they have allowed 106 ppg on the defensive end. We see a defenseless game with two teams wanting to run and shoot, so we like the OVER here
Black Magic Sports
5 Unit Black Magic CBB GAME OF THE YEAR on Wofford -7.5
Wofford may not be a team you are familiar with, but trust me when I say this is the PLAY OF THE YEAR in all of college basketball this year. Wofford at 14-9 on the season play host to Elon which is just 7-15 on the year. Wofford has won 6 out of their last 7 games overall with their only loss coming on the road to a very good Davidson team as 19-point underdogs. Wofford is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Elon has now lost 6 consecutive games heading into this one and their confidence is totally shot. Elon is 2-11 in road games this season, getting outscored by 11 points per contest. Wofford will get revenge from an earlier road loss at Elon this season now that they are playing their best basketball of the year. Ernie Nestor is 0-9 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game as the coach of Elon. His teams have NEVER covered the spread in today?s exact spot. Cash in with Wofford as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Depaul -8
Depaul runs away with this Big East contest at home with South Florida Saturday. South Florida is 1-10 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. Depaul is 22-11 ATS on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. They shine on the weekend. Cash in with Depaul as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on La Salle +3
La Salle is playing tremendous basketball as of late and should not be the underdog in this home meeting with Duquesne. La Salle won by 22 points in their last game, a road contest at George Washington where they were 3.5-point dogs. Duquesne has been extremely vulnerable on the road as of late, losing 3 straight road games, all where they were the favorite. La Salle is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Cash in with La Salle as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Mississippi State -5
The Bulldogs will have no problem dismantling the Auburn Tigers on the road Saturday. Auburn has lost 4 straight games to lesser competition than Mississippi State. Mississippi State is 19-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Mississippi State is 11-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% over the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs clearly have the better defense with a 7-footer in the middle that has a Triple Double this season with over 10 points, rebounds and blocks. Cash in with Mississippi State as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Texas -7
The Iowa State Cyclones are no match for Texas Saturday. The Longhorns will have 5 better athletes on the floor than Iowa State at each point in this ball game. That is until the final 2 minutes when they pull their starters out of courtesy from the blowout they will hand the Cyclones today. Iowa State just lost their last home game to a superior Texas A&M team by 18 points. Texas is coming off a brilliant 10-point win at Oklahoma. Texas is 9-1 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in home games after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are clearly overmatched in the middle. Cash in with Texas as the favorite.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Colorado +4
The Colorado Buffaloes have been close but no cigar lately. We feel they will get over the top Saturday and come out victorious over an overrated Oklahoma team in Big 12 play. Colorado has lost 7 out of their last 8 games, but they have gone 6-2 ATS during this stretch to show you how close they have come to winning more often. Colorado is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Oklahoma so history is definitely on their side. Oklahoma is 2-9 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Colorado as the underdog
The Killer Move's picks for Saturday:
20* Middle Tennessee State
10* Colorado State
ASA
Game of the Year
Louisville
4* Florida Atlantic
Dave Malinsky
6* Iowa St
Ed Remon
Georgia Tech
Ohio
Air Force
UNDERDOG
Purdue
Ron Meyer
Chalkboard...Minnesota U
Coaches Consensus...Nevada
Locker Room...Virginia Tech
Live Dog...Rutgers
Playbook...Wisconsin
Dallas Sportsman...Michigan
A-Play
Chip Shot....Colorado
Double Play....Marquette
Vegas Hotline....Rutgers
Heavy Hitter....Virginia
Major Shocker....Washington State
Private Players Club....South Carolina
Pure Profit
Backroom...Morehead State
Diamond...Middle Tennessee State
Special Total...Wyoming Over
Power Play...No Iowa
High Roller...Boise State
Money Move...Montana State
Consensus...USC
Big Al
Championship...Notre Dame
Blue Chip...Air Force
Line Mover...Ohio U
10 Dimes...New Mexico State
Offshore Steam...Old Dominion
Computer Boys...Cal Poly Slo
Late Phones...NBA Bomb Golden State
These are EddieMush.com service plays for today. These are their client's picks..remember, Eddie likes the 2nd team listed so you should bet on the first. Example: Eddie like Arkansas and Notre Dame, so you bet on Mississippi and Marquette, etc.
15* Mississippi +7.5 over Arkansas
12* Cleveland St -9 over Detroit
8* Marquette +5.5 over Notre Dame
8* Drake -16.5 over Evansville
8* Virginia +4 over Wake Forest
6* Dayton -4 over George Washington
4* Ohio -4 over Western Michigan
4* San Diego St -1 over TCU
Remember, the only reason the Patriots lost was because Eddie picked them. He 'mushed' their perfect season. EddieMush.com clients are on a monster roll the last two weeks.