MIKE WYNN
Michigan State at Indiana
There is no doubt that both of these teams will be in the field of 65 when tournament time arrives in March. Michigan St is 20-4 this season and ranked 9th in the polls prior to the Purdue loss Tuesday, while Indiana is 20-3 and ranked 12th this week. Obviously both teams are still looking to win a conference championship, and this is a big game for both schools as they try to catch or stay with surprising Purdue.
Tom Izzo has another talented group at Michigan St this season, but this team has yet to find their stride this season, as bad road losses at Iowa and Penn St point to. Purdue also had them down by 16 points at halftime Tuesday night.
The Spartans' floor general and most valuable player is guard Drew Neitzel. Michigan St is led in scoring by sophomore Raymar Morgan, but senior Neitzel is the glue for the Spartan offense, and he is the go to guy down the stretch. Michigan St on paper is a pretty good team, but they just haven?t dominated lesser opponents like they should, and the road losses at Iowa and Penn St are a bit alarming. Izzo still has a couple of weeks to get his team peaking prior to the tournaments, and knowing Tom Izzo, he will have them playing their best in March.
Indiana's squad is very much in the hunt for a Big 10 championship, as they?re just a half game back of Purdue at the time of this writing. With or without a win over Wisconsin Wednesday night, the Hoosiers are right there in the Big 10 hunt.
The Hoosiers are led by freshman sensation Eric Gordon, averaging 21.3 points per game, and they have a strong man in the post with D.J. White. White averages a double-double at 17.6 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, and can take over a game at times.
The Hoosiers do have an impressive record, but the fact is that they've played a weak schedule thus far. Michigan St will be only the third ranked team that Indiana has faced this season, and will be a tough test for them.
Early numbers on this game have Indiana favored by 4 points or so Saturday, and I'm going to lay the points in this one. The home team has won six straight in this series, and until Michigan St can show me more on the road, I'll have to side with Indiana.
Sebastian Sports
Louisville
Vernon Croy
Kentucky
ANTON WINS
Today's 2 unit NCAAB play is Dayton -3.
GamblersWorld.com Tip of the Day
Washington State Cougars vs. Oregon Ducks
Prediction: Oregon Ducks -1.5 Over/Under: 136
Reason: The fans at McArthur Court will be treated to a game between the Washington State Cougars and the Oregon Ducks when they take their seats on Saturday. Oddsmakers currently have the Ducks listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Cougars, while the game's total is sitting at 136. Taylor Rochestie went for 24 points as Washington State rolled past Oregon State 70-57 on Thursday night. Washington State covered as 11.5-point road favorites as the game played over the 119.5-point total set by oddsmakers. Bryce Taylor had 15 points as Oregon got by Washington 71-58 on Thursday night. Oregon cashed in as 7.5-point home favorites as the teams played under the 152.5-point total listed by oddsmakers. Current streak: Washington State has won 2 straight games. Oregon has won 2 straight games. Team records: Washington State: 19-5 SU, 12-11 ATS Oregon: 15-9 SU, 12-10 ATS Washington State most recently: When playing on Saturday are 5-4 Before playing Arizona State are 2-8 After playing Oregon State are 2-8 After a win are 7-3 Oregon most recently: When playing on Saturday are 6-4 Before playing USC are 5-5 After playing Washington are 7-3 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington State's last 5 games Washington State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington State's last 5 games on the road Washington State is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington State Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington State Oregon is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing Washington State Oregon is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games at home Next up: Washington State home to Arizona State, Thursday, February 21 Oregon at USC, Thursday, February 21
Tony Karpinski EARLY PLAYS
Fresno State vs. Boise State
Pick: Boise State
Pick on Boise State. A team with a short roster like Fresno State needs to have several things in its possession to remain viable. A winning record overall or in conference, home floor, the size to rebound and prevent second-chance points against it. Is any of that available here? No, no, and no. In addition, they are moving up from their sea-level home into mountain altitude for a second straight road game in 48 hours, and attempting to match up with a Boise team that scores 82.5 points per game and keeps the nation’s 19th fastest tempo going (73.2 possessions per game). Boise makes 57% of its two-point shots, 39.6% of its threes, and as Fresno tires trying to keep up with that, their own percentages figure to shrink. BOISE STATE ROLLS 85-61.
Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina
The Tar Heels have gone 2-1 over their last three, but could easily be 0-3 over that three game span. They lost to Duke at home by 11, they beat Clemson rallying in the second half to force OT and then beat Virginia on the road by a single points. Still, they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record and are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 home games. Tyler Hansbrough averages 22 and 10 a game for the Heels, and he faces no competion on the boards tonight from the Hokies. V Tech ranks 110th in the nation in rebounding so look for a big game from the big guys inside from NC. They get rocked at Chapel Hill this afternoon.
Alex Smart
ASU -4
Va Com -6
Idaho State +6
Michael Alexander
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State
Play: Mississippi State
The Arkansas Razorbacks look to repeat their performance against the Mississippi State Bulldogs when they travel to their home court today. In a previous meeting back in January the Razorbacks dominated enroute to an easy 78-58 win. However, overall Arkansas has struggled on the road this season going only 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS. They have also not played well at Mississippi State going 3-6 ATS since 1997.
The Arkansas offense has put up some decent number scoring an average of 73.8 points per game. Their production does drop off on the road scoring over 3 points less per game at 70.4. Their defense hasn't been the best on the road either as they give up a bit over what they score at 70.8 points per game.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this one on a two game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 11 overall. The Bulldogs have defended their home court well this season as they are 10-3 SU. In addition, conference play has gone well posting a 7-2 SU mark. Today they come in looking for revege against the Razorbacks after getting blown out in their last meeting.
They won't necessarily have an advantage on offense today as they score just about as many points as the Razorbacks at 73 points per game. It's their defense that could be the differnce as they give up only 63 points per game.
SUPPORTING ANGLES: ARKANSAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1997. MISSISSIPPI ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. Arkansas is 1-6-1 ATS on the road against a sub .700 opponent playing with 20-plus point same-season revenge.
Mississippi State has done well at home versus Arkansas winning six of their last nine in the series. That bodes well as Arkansas is 0-17-4 ATS in its last 21 SU losses against an avenging opponent. I am looking for the Bulldogs to win and cover in this one.
ATS Lock Club
Bradley -3 - 10 Units
LA Monroe -4 1/2 - 7 Units
Texes Tech -2 1/2 - 7 Units
AZ St. -4 - 6 Units
Idaho +10 - 5 Units
NESS
20* - Kent State
Insider - Texas Tech
Weekend Wipeout Winner - BYU
3-pack - Kansas State, CS-Fullerton , Oregon
Kelso
Chairmans
10 units BYU -6
Best Bets
5 units Air Force -7
4 units Louisville -5.5
3 units Mich St + 5
WINNERS EDGE
Kentucky- 2.5 , 2 units
Clemson - 6 , 2 units
C Florida - 10 , 1 unit
Dave Malinsky
GAME: Texas @ Baylor
PICK: Baylor -1.5
4* BAYLOR over TEXAS
In going to the well the last couple of games against Texas, we have been discussing the toll that a brutal non-conference slate has been having on floor leaders D. J. Augustin and A. J. Abrams. When Rick Barnes put this schedule together he had no idea that his team would be as depth-challenged as it is, and not only did that mean too many early minutes for his stars, but in conference play it is bordering on being very dangerous. While we indeed lost our play with Kansas in Austin on Monday night, the signs of impending doom are rather clear – the two guards each played the entire 40 minutes, and combined to shoot 6-26 from the field. But they got a huge role of the dice when Connor Atchley went 6-6 from the field, including all four 3-point attempts, and it was enough to get that win.
Now let’s tally the numbers. Texas has played 365 minutes of Big 12 basketball this season, with Augustin on the court for 358 and Abrams 338. As a result two explosive talents show weary legs when it comes to shooting the basketball, with Augustin down to a shocking 34.6 percent from the field and Abrams 40.6. As a result the Longhorns are only shooting 40.2 as a team. But defense and grit keep them high in the national ratings, and in terms of reputation. That is why we only have to ask Baylor to do little more than win this game to get the money, and we will certainly do that.
This might be the biggest home game in the history of the program for the Bears. They held a special pep rally on Friday to begin driving the passion of the fans, and that is going to translate to a special level of passion for the team on the court as well. The latter would likely happen in front of an empty audience, however, as Scott Drew and his team believe that they absolutely should have won at Austin earlier, a game that showed 80-72 for Texas on the final scoreboard.
Baylor led by as many as 14 points early, and by four at halftime that afternoon, but five minutes into the second half there was a technical whistled in Drew when he disputed a call, which turned into a five-point possession for the Longhorns and put them in the lead. The Bears still never backed down, trailing by only four with 20 seconds left before the final margin got built at the free throw line. The key is that they know based on those 40 minutes something that we know – they do not give up anything to Texas in terms of athleticism, size or depth. Take away the aura and this is an opponent that they can handle, and the timing is outstanding – while we should get the very best that Baylor has to offer tonight, the Longhorns are caught off of that emotional win over Kansas, and with a major home revenge affair vs. Texas A&M on Monday night, and are very vulnerable in this setting.
Bob Akmen
Ark St
Hurricanes
Cash & Profit Experts
Alabama/S.Carolina Under 149
Alatec
Indiana State +1.5
Bradley -3
Cleveland State +13
Texas Tech -2.5
Baylor -2
BYU -6.5
Jonny Guild
Connecticut Huskies - 6.5
Wisconsin Badgers - 10
Dayton Flyers - 4
San Diego Toreros - 12
LT's Lock Of The Day
Indiana -4'
Valley Sports
Air Force
Lock Of The Day
Louisville +5.5
Take the Cardinals today. They're a Final Four caliber team and Providence is a team in disarray. Louisville's won 8 of 10, including 7 games by double-digits. Providence has lost 6 of 7 and will struggle to keep this one close
BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INDIANA
Game: Michigan State vs. Indiana
Prediction: Indiana Reason: I'm laying the points with INDIANA. Many will view the Kelvin Sampson scandal as a distraction, which has helped to keep this line reasonable. I don't expect that to be the case though. In fact, something like this can often bring a team closer together. As D.J. White said after the loss to Wisconsin: "Nothing outside of us hurt our team. We were a family tonight. Tonight didn't have anything to do with anything, we just didn't win." I feel that the Hoosier players will rally around the incident and I expect them to come together as a "family" again tonight with an important victory. Despite the recent losses, the Hoosiers remain an outstanding 30-2 their last 32 home games. Conversely, the Spartans have lost back to back road games and are just 2-3 in their conference road games overall. Looking back further and we find them at just 9-16 ATS (7-18 SU) their last 25 road lined games. The Hoosiers have beaten the Spartans three straight times here, including a 73-51 blowout victory last season. I look for them to bounce back with another convincing victory.
OREGON STATE
Game: Washington vs. Oregon St.
Prediction: Oregon St. Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. I successfully played on Washington last week when the Huskies upset UCLA. While that was an impressive performance, the Huskies still represent the Beavers' best opportunity to earn a conference victory this season. Here's why. If the Beavers are going to earn a Pac-10 win, it's more than likely going to come at home as their road games come at UCLA and USC. The rest of the way, they'll host Oregon, Arizona and Arizona State, all of which are ahead of the Huskies in the Pac-10 and overall standings. That makes today a very important game and I expect the Beavers to respond with a massive effort. While they haven't been winning, the Beavers have been very competitive recently. They missed covering by a bucket last time out but are still 3-1 ATS their last four games. Taking somewhat of a step down in class, I look for them to improve to 12-6 ATS the last 18 games in this series and I won't be at all surprised if they pull off the "shocking" upset. *Shocker of the Week
OREGON
Game: Washington St. vs. Oregon
Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm playing on OREGON. The Cougars won by nine when they hosted the Ducks last month. Despite that loss, the Ducks have still won 21 of the last 23 meetings. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Ducks to have their revenge this evening. Oregon has won 12 straight home games against Washington State since a 76-59 loss on Feb. 18, 1995. That includes a 64-59 win here last season, when the Ducks were listed as -2.5 point favorites. Including that result, the Cougars are just 4-9 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs of -3 points or less. Both teams come in off double-digit victories over lesser Pac-10 opponents (Washington and Oregon State) but the Ducks have the advantage of playing their second straight home game while the Cougars will be playing their second straight on the road. With Thursday's win, the Ducks are a healthy 10-2 at home for the season, averaging more than 85 points in those games. While the Cougars do play excellent defense, they only manage 67 points per game on the road. Look for the Ducks to be able to control the tempo more effectively than they were able to do at Washington State, avenging that loss and continuing their homecourt dominance in this series.
NORTHERN IOWA
These instate rivals played a very close game at Drake on 1/26. The Bulldogs would eventually win by four points but the Panthers covered the number, improving to 12-7 ATS the last 19 series meetings. The Panthers obviously don't have nearly as good a record or ranking as the Bulldogs. However, to a certain extent, one can "throw out the records" in "rivalry" games. Additionally, the Panthers do have a few significant factors in their favor. For starters, homecourt has been huge for the Panthers and in this series overall. Despite a loss here last year, the Panthers have still won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bulldogs here. They're also a perfect 4-0 their last four games here, knocking off the likes of Missouri State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois and Wichita State. They'll be highly motivated to avenge both last month and last year's losses and they certainly don't want to see their instate opponents clinching the Missouri Valley Conference title on their floor, which would happen if Drake wins today and if Illinois State loses to Indiana State. The Panthers are very tough defensively. In fact, they're the only team in the conference which is allowing fewer points than the Bulldogs. Note that Northern Iowa enters the game having allowed a mere 59.4 points per game at home while Drake is allowing 64.3 on the road. (The Bulldogs have also allowed 65 or more in four straight games.) Additionally, note that the Panthers were the only conference team to hold the Bulldogs to fewer than 60 points. While the Bulldogs obviously really want to win this game, they don't absolutely "need" it and I won't be surprised if they don't react well to suffering their first loss in nearly three months. Unlike their guests, the Panthers come in off a momentum-building win. Behind another strong defensive effort, I look for them to rise to the occasion and score the upset, improving to 9-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. *Rivalry
GOM
NORTHWESTERN
Game: Purdue vs. Northwestern
Prediction: Northwestern Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTHWESTERN. The Boilermakers have been a great story and they're sure to be a very popular pick with the betting public today. After all, they've dominated Big-10 play while the Wildcats have been dominated. However, I feel that this will be an extremely difficult spot for the young Boilermakers. Not only are they coming off back to back huge wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, the first time in school history that they've beaten Top 10 teams in back to back games, but they've got another huge game at Indiana on deck. Note that the Boilermakers have gone just 2-4 ATS in six lined games against teams with a losing record and just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they were favored by greater than eight points. While the Wildcats have certainly struggled in conference play, they do have the advantage of facing the Boilermakers for the first time. That's worth noting as they play a different 'style' than most teams which can cause some problems at first. The Wildcats are desperate for a conference victory and they know that an upset here today would do wonders in helping to salvage some pride. Last year's game here was decided by seven points (75-68 Purdue) and the Wildcats went 4-0 SU/ATS the previous four meetings here. I look for them to give their very best effort once again and for this game to be much closer than expected the entire way. *Contrarian Game of the Month
ARIZONA
Game: Stanford vs. Arizona
Prediction: Arizona Reason: I'm playing ARIZONA. We all know that nothing is for certain. However, I really like the Wildcats for several reasons in this game. For starters there's the obvious home-court advantage. Note that the last time the teams faced each other here, the Wildcats won by 14 points. These teams played a close game at Stanford last month. The Cardinal won by four points (56-52) but the Wildcats still managed to cover. That brought them to 4-1 ATS the last five series meetings. Stanford won last month's meeting by keeping Chase Budinger, Jarryd Bayless and the Arizona offense under control. Bayless was just 3-for-12 for nine points that night. I expect that to be a much more difficult task this afternoon. Bayless is coming off games of 39 and 33 points and he combined with Budinger and center Jordan Hill for a whopping 72 points vs. California last time out. The Wildcats scored on 15 consecutive possessions to take control down the stretch, before taking a shot-clock violation with 1.5 seconds left in the game. Feeling so confident, Hill was quoted as saying, "if we keep playing like we did tonight, there's no stopping us." For the season, the Wildcats average a healthy 76.9 points per game at home, compared to just 68 on the road. While the individual matchups are always extremely important, I also expect the "emotional state" of the two teams to play a major factor in today's outcome. As mentioned, the Wildcats are full of confidence and momentum after finishing off their win over the Golden Bears on a major high note. On the other hand, Stanford figures to be somewhat deflated. That's because the Cardinal's (overtime) loss to Arizona State snapped a 7-game winning streak and came after the Cardinal were ahead by 14 points with less than eight minutes left. That type of devastating defeat is often particularly tough to shake-off with a short turn-around between games. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were favored by four points or less. Most recently, listed as -2 home favorites, they defeated Washington State by a dozen. Conversely, despite a win at Washington State recently, Stanford is just 1-5 SU/ATS the last six times that it was listed as an underdog of four points or less. This game is arguably more important to Arizona. In addition to playing with "revenge" from the earlier loss, the Wildcats are further behind in the Pac-10 standings. The Wildcats have already beaten two top 10 teams at home this season, Texas A&M and Washington State. As interim coach Kevin O'Neill noted: "Our resume would really be helped with a third top-10 win..." I'm expecting a highly motivated effort from the Wildcats this afternoon as build off Thursday's win and improve to 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. *Pac 10 GOY
Spritzer
main event.................portland st
insider.......................tex tech
dog goy....................uab
mac mismatch gom............kent st
ko.................................utah
ko..............................kentucky
tko........................gtown
tko.........................uconn
tko..............................tex am
5 star..........................mich st
4 star............................miss st
Cokin
fat man releases......maryland,oregon, unlv
champ club....................tex tech
big east goy.............st johns
sunbelt goy...............ul lafayette
wcc goy...................pepperdine
big shot...................kent st
window......................unlv
3 star....................georgia st
3 star...................george mason
3 star.....................oreg st
Feist
personal elite.................standford
big 10 goy.................purdue
personal best...................unlv
personal best....................clev st
platinum goy.......................n.mex
inner circle.............................denver
inner circle............................temple
5 star.............................georgia
4 star......................tex tech
3 star.........................hofstra