Kruger
5* Butler
4* N Arizona
Dominic Brando Sports
UNLV RUNNIN REBELS -5/-120 over Wyoming Cowboys
BUTLER BULLDOGS -5/-115 over Drake Bulldogs
MIAMI HURRICANES -2/-115 over Maryland Terrapins
ARIZONA STATE/WASHINGTON UNDER 134/-120
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SALUKIS -5/-125 over Nevada
Rocco Vincintore
Guaranteed Selections
500* BRACKET BUSTER GAME OF THE YEAR
Bradley -10.5
Steam On-Line
Guaranteed Selections
500% LATE STEAM BIG 12 CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
752 Texas A&M -10.5 4:00 EST
Winning Points Online NCAAB
***BEST BET
Butler* over Drake by 18
Drake has clinched the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title outright, and is out on the road in a non-conference game against a team that gave eventual national champ Florida all it could handle in a Sweet 16 game last season.
Drake somehow suckers Missouri Valley opponents into foul-filled affairs, using their 75% free-throw shooting to their advantage. Gotta feel that the free-throw line is a place they won't be visiting too often this afternoon in a true road affair against a team that is multiply tournament-tested against a higher class of athletes. In Butler, Drake meets an opponent that shoots as well as they do from the field (45%overall and 38% from 3-point range) and at the free-throw line (74%). Also, in Drake's last game,senior point guard Adam Emmenecker suffered a cut on his right hand that required stitches. BUTLER, 70-52.
Erin Renning
Kansas State +2
San Diego State +3
Wolkosky Milan
10* DENVER -3½
10* UTAH -12
10* SAN ANTONIO -6
10* CHA/WAS OVER 193
Tom Stryker
4* Texas A&M-12
4* Pacific-10
3* Maryland +4
3* MO. St.-13
Dave Malinsky
PICK: Boise State
Offered at: -7 WSEX
REASON FOR PICK: 4* BOISE STATE over SIENA
In the current edition of RIM SHOTS we detail some of the keys to finding edges in the “BracketBuster” games, and here is an ideal example of where they can be found. Instead of these games being rewards for the teams just as often they are penalties, and we can not imagine Fran McCaffery being happy about having to make this arduous trip.
McCaffery’s Saints are having a solid season despite being so young – with eight of the first 10 in the rotation freshmen or sophomores they are still tied for first in the MAAC, with two conference games remaining. But at a time in which fatigue is beginning to show, with draining back-to-back losses to Loyola in overtime and to Manhattan by a single point, they are forced to take a tough trip across the country to play a rested and ready opponent in a game that will start at 10 PM on the Siena body clocks. Getting to Boise was not any fun; they had to split their traveling party in two, with the players having a layover in Minneapolis, and the others needing to take three flights, and the return might even be more of a nuisance – because they will not depart until Sunday morning, and lose the travel hours returning east, some are not scheduled to land at Albany International until 11:03 PM. This is the last thing that McCaffery needs at this time of the season, and making matters worse is that his team does not match up well here at all.
The Saints play their best basketball when they get out and run in the open court, because they lack size inside and experience on defense. For the season they are -5.4 on the boards, getting out-rebounded 20 times in 26 games, and they are giving up an alarming 39.3 percent shooting from 3-point range. So can there be a worse matchup than an opponent that absolutely loves to play uptempo, but does it with much more experience, and much more size? Keyed by that all-senior front-court of center Matt Nelson (15.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game), and forwards Reggie Larry (19.3 and 9.1) and Tyler Tiederman (13.7 and 3.3), Boise loves to get up and down the court, and to pound the ball inside. No team in the nation shoots better than the 51.6 percent the Broncos have knocked down, and they are also beating their opponents by a solid 3.1 per game on the glass.
While this game is a nuisance for Siena, Greg Graham was probably thrilled when the matchup was announced. At 20-6 his Broncos are getting close to securing an at-large invitation to the Big Dance, should they not win the WAC tournament. This is the kind of win that can make a difference in that regard, and that makes them not just hungry to get it, but also focused to make a statement through the margin as well. The door is wide open for them to do just that.
Maingate Group:
25* BUTLER
Stan Sharp
Triple Dime Unlv -6
John Ryan Guaranteed Pick
Game: Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Reason: Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Tampa Bay – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 118-44 and has made 45.2 units since 2002. Play on home favorites against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses and in the second half of the season. TB is off 3 straight losses with the last two being road games at Buffalo and the Islanders. This is Boston’ 5th straight road game and fatigue is certainly an issue at this point in the season. They also have Ottawa on deck Tuesday night and may be caught looking ahead. TB has done very well installed as a modest home favorite. They are 32-16 against the money line (+12.2 Units) at home when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. Boston visited here on December 1st and lost 4-1. Boston is 40-76 against the money line (-30.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Take Tampa Bay
LARRY NESS
Night time 3-pack
Tulane, Toledo, Murray State
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Washington
2. 50,000* Miami (OH)
3. 50,000* Boise State
1. Washington- Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions, as home wins over UCLA and Arizona clearly show the Huskies ascending, while losses in 7 of their last 9 games, including 2 straight, show the depths to which the Sun Devils have sunken. Those trends continue tonight, as the Huskies defend their house against an Arizona State team which is garbage on the road, going just 2-5 SUATS this season!
While some critics of this play may argue the Sun Devils will be out for revenge after the Huskies came to Tempe and beat them outright 72-61 a 5'-point dogs. However, I'd argue, its hard for a team that's lost 7 of their last 9 games to concentrate on getting revenge, when all they do is lose! Also, that win in Tempe gave us several reasons to like the Huskies here tonight, starting with the match ups.
Clearly the Sun Devils have no one who can guard Jon Brockman, as the bullish 6'7 forward dominated the paint and the glass in their last meeting, going for 21 points and 16 rebounds! Arizona State has only one true frontcourt threat, Jeff Pendergraph, problem is he struggled against Brockman and you better believe he'll struggle again tonight on the road. James Harden will get his points, but the fact the Huskies backcourt is playing well (Appleby 32 points 9 for 9 3-pointers against Oregon State, Overton 19 points against Arizona) is a great equalizer in this one.
Finally, if you've seen this Sun Devils offense play on the road, answer me this: How in the hell does Arizona State keep pace with Washington in this one?! Sun Devils average a meager 58 ppg on the road this season, while Huskies are up around 74 ppg on nearly 47% shooting at home... Guys, the disparity couldn't be more clear, as the Huskies can and will win this game comfortably.
Bottom line, the Huskies defend their house against a tail-spinning Sun Devils squad in this one. Brockman's edge down-low, coupled with Arizona State's inability to score on the road, makes for a solid recipe for a Washington home win and cover in this spot. Washington beat them handily in Tempe, and they'll beat them down again in Seattle tonight.
Take Washington comfortably over Arizona State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Miami (OH)- While Valpo may have the better overall record and the home court edge, don't let those factors fool you, as the Redhawks are playing much better baketball right now, and I'll prove it:
First and foremost, the Crusaders have lost 7 of their last 10 games, going a pathetic 1-7-2 ATS over that span! We've seen them degrade on both ends of the court, allowing 70 ppg over their last 5, but only managing to score 64 ppg over that span themselves. That problem only gets amplified tonight, as the one thing the Redhawks do very well is play defense.
Miami (OH) lives and dies by their defense, and over their last 5 games they've been real impressive, allowing just 60 ppg on 39% shooting! Its their consistently solid effort on the defensive end that have made this team a solid bet on the road, going 9-6 ATS away this season. Redhawks are also 6-2 ATS over their last 8, including 4 straight covers on the road!
While Valpo has been having trouble on the offensive end, Miami (OH) has been playing some of its best offensive ball of the season, averaging 67 ppg on an excellent 48% shooting over their last 5 games! Anyone who follows Redhawks basketball knows that's a significant improvement from their season averages, and one that propels them to the win here tonight.
Bottom line, in this pick'em situation, give me the team that's playing better on both ends of the court in Miami (OH), despite the fact the Crusaders are at home. Valpo's lost 3 of their last 4 at home, and have been a miserable bet anywhere they play of late. In the end, Redhawks defense makes enough stops to get the close road win tonight.
Take Miami (OH) over Valparaiso in this college hoops match up.
3. Boise State- If you've seen this Broncos team play at home, then you know they're no pushover in Boise, going 11-3 SU (5-6 ATS) there this season. But its not just that their 11-3, but the quality of the teams they've beaten, including San Diego, BYU, and Nevada! Sorry Siena-backers, but your Saints are overmatched in this one, as the Broncos are a much better team than the Manhattan's of the MAAC this Siena team has been barely beating of late!
Seriously guys, if the Saints can barely win at the Jaspers, what makes you think they'll get it done tonight in Boise?! In fact, we've seen this Saints team fold in tough road games before, like when they got annihilated at Loyola-Maryland 85-56 back on January 24th!
Herein lies the problem for the Saints, as their defense is way too generous when they travel, allowing 78 ppg on nearly 50% shooting (43% from 3-point) away this season! Boise State is a team that relies on efficient offense more than anything else, averaging 81 ppg on 50% shooting this season! Led by their frontcourt of Larry, Nelson, and sharpshooter Tiedeman, the Broncos have the size and the shooters to take full advantage of the Saints deficiencies on defense in this one.
Bottom line, when the best team in the WAC (playing at home) faces off against one of the better teams in the MAAC, the disparity between the two leagues becomes painfully obvious tonight. Boise State will shred this Siena defense, while the Saints may stay close early, but eventually they fail to keep pace. Broncos roll late Saturday night
Chicago Hotsides
3* Wash U132.5
3* Hou U132.5
3* Monroe U142.5
3* Holy Cross O115 -120
3* SD O116 -120
2* Ohio -2 -120
2* Hofstra +4
2* E Mich -10 -140
3* Florida Panthers O5.5 -125
3* Carolina Hurricanes -135