Saturday Service Plays

Carlo Campanella

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic

Orlando comes off a 12 point road favored loss in Philadelphia, but returns home to host New York on Saturday knowing that they're posting a 31-17 (Over/Under) record after losing by double digits in their previous game, and averaging a combined 202 points per game following a road loss this year! Look for an offensively charged game for the Magic tonight

Play on: Over

Bruce Marshall

Play: Towson St.

Towson’s pattern is pretty easy to identify, as Pat Kennedy’s youthful Tigers continue to play a lot better at home (where they’ve won 7 of their last 9) than on the road (where they’ve lost 13 straight,

which is every game since beating Samford on their first road assignment way back on Nov. 20). CAA scouts are very impressed with the recent efforts of sr. G C.C. Williams, who has expanded from his normal stopper role on

defensive end and has decided to attack the bucket on offense, scoring 16 ppg while hitting 18 of 25 from floor the last 3 games, while Georgetown transfer G Thornton continues his hot shooting (he’s 46% from tripleville in CAA action).

Matt Fargo

Texas vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech

What the hell happened to Texas Tech on Wednesday against Texas A&M? I’m not complaining because I was on the Aggies but the Red Raiders put on a complete shit show. Texas Tech allowed 56.9 percent shooting from the floor including an absurd 70 percent in the first half. Heading home is what this team needs. It was the worst loss ever in the series with Texas A&M so the Red Raiders should be one fired up team this Saturday, facing another big rival.

Texas is red hot right now and the lines are showing that as they are way overvalued in this road game. The Longhorns were favored by the exact same amount at Iowa St. three weeks ago and there is no way the Cyclones and Red Raiders should be spoken with each other in the same breath. That game against Iowa St. took overtime to win by the way. The Longhorns have become a very public team and laying this many points on the road is not deterring the public as it is all over Texas here.

This is not an easy place for the opposition to win. Texas Tech is 12-1 at home this season and it really should be undefeated. The lone defeat came against Oklahoma on a 40-foot jump shot at the buzzer. Adding to this game is the fact that the Red Raiders lost at Texas by 26 points earlier this season so there is a bit of revenge to take care of on Saturday. Texas is 7-3 on the road this season but only +2.4 ppg in scoring differential so it has been hardly dominant away from home.

The Longhorns defense has been absolutely on fire but it is time for a turnaround and it is backed by a great situation. Play against road favorites or pick that are shooting 45 percent or better and with a defense allowing 42 percent or less on the season after four straight games where the defense allowed 40 percent or less from the floor. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons including a 44-17 ATS mark (72.1 percent) over the last three years.

The Red Raiders have two things in their favor and both are negative making this a great contrarian play. The two negatives are the lost in the last game and the previous loss to Texas. Play on home teams that are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 50 points and also coming off a road loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. An outright Texas Tech win would not be surprising at all here but we might not even need it. Play Texas Tech Red Raiders 1 Unit

Tom Freese

Mississippi at Florida

Mississippi St is 6-0 ATS off a home win where they lost ATS and they are 20-8 ATS on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 21-11 ATS off one or more straight wins. Florida is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 2-5 ATS their last 7 conference games. This young Gator team has hit a wall. Look for the experienced Bulldogs to come away with the Win. PLAY ON MISSISSIPPI ST +

Marc Lawrence
Play On: Mississippi State

Note: The Bulldogs battle the Gators in Gainesville in a matchup of one team (Florida) off its 20th win of the season against the other (Mississippi State) in quest of its 20th. MSU will also look to improve on its 9-3 ATS mark in conference games with revenge, including 6-1 when playing off a win. The kicker, though, is Florida’s look ahead to Tennessee. It’s major revenge for the Gators as the 22-point whipping laid on them by the Vols earlier this year was their worst defeat this season. Go ahead and grab the points as the Bulldogs take a bite out of the Gators. KEY STAT: Mississippi State is 10-1-1 ATS with revenge against Florida.

BRAD DIAMOND

Play on: Butler over Detroit
Personally, I had a rough go in the Horizon this week, but our encounter on Saturday should not be in question. Detroit has had huge personnel and injury issues this season and plays with a less than a talented bench. Butler brings a senior laden lineup to the fore in hopes of securing a late season dance ticket (26-3), I like our chances with the more talented and experienced unit. By the way the Titans have lost three straight games tough games. Emotion Key Trends: Detroit is 4-12 ATS vs. teams with a .600+ plus win percentage.

Vegas Sports Pics

Connecticut Huskies - 4.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia (20-8, 9-6) at No.15 Connecticut (22-6, 11-4) enters on a roll going 11-1 last 12 games. The Huskies are 14-1 at home shooting 47.3 percent allowing 35.9 percent shooting. They're 6-1 last seven meetings, winning the six by an average of 15.5 points.

Texas A&M Aggies + 2 over (at) Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma (18-10, 6-7) vs. Texas A&M (21-7, 7-6) hits the road off posting a 98-54 home win over (15-12) Texas Tech on 02/27, its largest ever margin of victory in a Big 12 game. The Aggies are 12-5 last 17 conference road games. They won at OU 56-49 last season.

Ohio State Buckeyes + 3 over (at) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota (17-10, 7-8) vs. Ohio State (17-11, 8-7) in Big Ten play ranks third in field goal percentage, first in field goal percentage defense, and third in rebounding margin. The Buckeyes have won last three meetings off posting a 76-60 home win over Minnesota on 01/26.

Iowa Hawkeyes (pk) over Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois (11-17, 3-12) third leading scorer senior Randle, who started the first 27 games, is out. The Illini are 2-8 road off losing at (9-19) Michigan 49-43 on 02/23. Iowa (12-17, 5-11) has won the last two home meetings, beating Illinois 60-53 last season, 63-48 previous season.

Kansas Jayhawks - 13 over Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State (18-9, 8-5) has lost its last four road games. No.6 Kansas (25-3, 10-3) leading the nation with a plus 20.0 scoring margin is 17-0 at home with an average winning margin of 26.2 points. The Jayhawks are 35-2 last 37 meetings off losing at KSU 84-75 on 01/30.

STRIKE POINT

Syracuse -2.5 over Pittsburgh
Must win game for the Orange. They need this one, not only to add wins to the board, but also to build some momentum for perhaps another run in the Big East tourney. Pitt can't shoot the three ball like Notre Dame did, so look for a more effective zone defense by the 'Cuse, and for them to get the win in the Carrier Dome.

Vanderbilt +5 over Arkansas
I like the points here, mainly because the 'Dores are the stronger team and I don't like the way Arkansas is playing with its tourney hopes up in the air. 1-4 in their last five games for the Hogs, while Vandy has won seven straight. This is two teams going in opposite directions.

EDGE ON ODDS

Georgetown Hoyas @ Marquette Golden Eagles
Pick: Marquette Golden Eagles -135

Reasoning: Georgetown travels to Marquette to take on the Golden Eagles in a clash of Big East rivals battling for position going into the tournament. This game presents a wonderful spot to back the Golden Eagles. Marquette is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games coming off a win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 coming off of an ATS win. They have dominated road teams covering 13 of the past 16 games when a visitor with a winning record game to town. The Eagles are also a very profitable 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. The Eagles are coming off a 10 point road win in Villanova, and have knocked off Rutgers and Pittsburgh in their last 2 home games by an average of 16 points. With Georgetown just 2-6 in their last 8 games ATS, 6-6 ATS on the road you need to be all over the Golden Eagles today as they will take down the Hoyas on National TV.

WINNING POINTS

***BEST BET
Detroit over *Los Angeles Clippers by 15
The Pistons have too much experience and savvy to get ambushed by the Clippers,
especially after experiencing a road loss 10 days ago to Milwaukee. Unless Elton Brand (check status) is ready, which is highly improbable at this stage, the Pistons should beable to control the backboards. Detroit ranked No. 1 in defense through the third week of February. DETROIT 101-86.

***BEST BET
Creighton* over Bradley by 25
The circled game, unfortunately, gets a higher number for Creighton to cross over in
the wake of Andrew Warren’s broken hand, and Daniel Ruffin’s domestic battery
charge, and we don’t mean Dura-Cell. Wisconsin-Milwaukee didn’t have enough time
to prepare and take advantage for their unimportant non-conference road game at
Bradley last Saturday, which helps. Dana Altman, the best coach in the Missouri
Valley, has a whole week and even if Ruffin is re-instated from suspension, Warren’s
absence, the edge it creates for Creighton, and the resulting distraction for Bradley is
too much to overcome in the home side’s revenge spot in front of the usual 13,000.
CREIGHTON, 80-55.

***BEST BET
Gonzaga* over St. Mary’s by 19
The free-throw attempt disparity in Gonzaga’s overtime loss at St. Mary’s was 42-18
favoring St. Mary’s, and the foul count was 29-22 against Gonzaga. The ‘Zags were
playing their third game in the week after the long trip to Memphis and back. St.
Mary’s is a bully team that blasts so-so opponents on its home floor, and needs the
kind of disparities above to separate itself – barely – from the good opponents. They
were a 7-Star “Against” for Executive Club midnight money collectors with Kent State
last Saturday night. Ask not for whom the bell tolls, St. Mary’s. It tolls for thee. GONZAGA,
85-66.

JARED KLEIN

NEW JERSEY-MONTREAL
Recommendation: Devils

The New Jersey Devils head to Montreal to take on the Canadiens in the second half of a back to back set. With the trade deadline on Tuesday, all reports indicate that both of these teams could have some new players joining their respective sides. Having said that, the New Jersey Devils are playing amazing hockey of late winning five straight games and seven out of their last ten games. “We’re definitely proud of what we’ve accomplished,” forward John Madden was quoted as saying. “But at the same time we’ve got to move forward.” The Devils currently sit in first in the Eastern Conference with 79 points and there is no doubt in my mind that goaltenderMartin Brodeur is the reason why this team is so steady each and every season. Brodeur is the first goaltender to win 35 games and he is on pace to win 46 games this season. It would be Brodeur’s third 40-win season in a row which is an incredible feat. The Devils defense has also been outstanding in front of Brodeur as they’ve given up two goals or less in seven out of their last eight games. This weekend New Jersey faces a Montreal Canadiens team that has been fantastic on the road with a record of 19-13, but has struggled at the Belle Centre this season with a record of 14-17. The Devils are quietly sitting a top of the Eastern Conference virtually unnoticed and I expect a big win in Montreal this weekend

MARTY OTTO

VANDERBILT-ARKANSAS
Recommendation: Arkansas

We backed Kentucky against this same Razorbacks side just a week ago in the Best Bet section, but we’ll turn around and back the Hogs this weekend. Arkansas has been brutal on the road, a consistent failure both straight up and against the number: As such we had plenty of reason to back Kentucky last week where the Wildcats were (and still are) unbeaten in SEC play at Rupp Arena. But if we know anything its how important home court is and the return home will serve us well. Also serving us well will be the absolutely brutal let down about to fall on Vandy. The Commodores will enter this weekend off of a four game home stand that saw them take revenge on Kentucky and Florida and beat a worn down Georgia side. Their opponent on Tuesday will be the nation’s number one ranked Tennessee Vols, an instate rivalry game with in-season revenge. It doesn’t get any better from a situational standpoint. Fundamentally I don’t like Arkansas’ big men that much but they do have the size to matchup against AJ Ogilvy, and the guard combination of Sonny Weems, Gary Ervin and Patrick Beverly can keep the pressure on Shan Foster. The Hogs’ quick tempo and pressing style of attack has really troubled the ‘Dores this season, reflected in Vandy’s losses at Ole Miss, Florida and Tennessee already the year. Arkansas rolls in this one by double digits

BRENT CROW

TEXAS A&M-OKLAHOMA-
Recommendation: Oklahoma

Both of these teams have struggled lately during Big 12 Conference play. The Aggies have dropped three straight entering the week, including home losses to Nebraska and Oklahoma State, two teams that rarely win on the road. They also were blown out on the road by Texas, 77-50. Oklahoma is just 3-4 in its last seven games, losing last Saturday at Texas to snap a three-game winning streak. The Sooners should be a small favorite over A&M, and their home court advantage will make the difference in this game. Oklahoma has a solid inside game with Longar Longar and Blake Griffin, which matches up well with the big men from Texas A&M. The Sooners have not been completely dominant at home this season,but they still have only dropped two home conference games. The Aggies have a very young team, and they have struggled against good teams on the road. Their three wins have come against teams with losing conference records, and now they are not even playing well on their home court against poor teams. Oklahoma is squarely on the bubble for the NCAA tourney with a 18-9 record, and this win would be huge for them. They do not have any quality wins over conference teams that should make the tourney, making this game that much more important. There is no doubt that the Soonerswill come to play today and they should get a nice victory.

ROB VENO

NEW MEXICO STATE-FRESNO STATE
Recommendation: New Mexico State

Win or lose on the road against Nevada on Thursday night, the Aggies will be in a heated battle for the WAC’s No. 1 tournament seeding as they head into this contest. Currently, head coach Marvin Menzies’ team is the hottest in the league having won five straight games and scoring 80 or more points in all of them. The conference road hasn’t always been pretty for NMSU (3-3 SU/ATS) but they are one of only two league teams to go to San Jose State and win this season and they’re the only WAC team to win at first place Boise State. With that in mind, expect New Mexico State to enter this contest with situational focus. Fundamentals here point to a huge rebounding advantage for the Aggies who own a league leading +9.8 rebound margin while FSU lingers near the conference cellar at -3.8. In the first meeting between these teams, New Mexico State pounded the Bulldogs on the boards 49-34. Shooting also squarely in favor of the visitors here as all five Aggies starters hit 46% or better from the floor (center Hatila Passos an amazing 70.3%) while none of FSU’s top five scorers top 44%. Fresno found the New Mexico State defense difficult to crack back on January 5th as they shot 38.5% from the field and 21.2% on the 33 three pointers they hoisted up. Final buy signal on the Aggies here is Fresno State’s atrocious 1-9 ATS mark over their last 10 which includes seven spread losses in a row entering this game.

POINTWISE

GEORGIA STATE RATING: 3

INDIANA STATE RATING: 4

THE GOLD SHEET

BAYLOR by 19 over Missouri

INDIANA STATE by 12 over Missouri State

CLEVELAND STATE by 12 over Youngstown State

THE SPORTS REPORTER

BEST BET
*OKLAHOMA over TEXAS A&M by 13
Sooner C Longar Longar missed three straight games due to injury – including earlier loss to A&M – but OK snapped right back upon his return, reeling off a trio of smart wins before coming a’cropper against Texas, which left OU HC Jeff Capel speechless, though Longhorns are doing that to ‘most everyone, lately. Sound again, home side seeks to deal further dose of misery out to Aggies, who somehow lost to Nebraska at home last week. When things go bad…OKLAHOMA, 77-64.

BEST BET
*IOWA over ILLINOIS by 10
Offensively-inconsistent Illini have been terrible disappointment throughout this campaign, consistently failing to register against top competition. Meanwhile, Hawks have come along respectably since commencement of the conference season, and have notched wins against the Spartans and Buckeyes, here. Replication of that form would do nicely. IOWA, 62-52

BEST BET
ILLINOIS-CHICAGO over WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE by 9
When wildly-shorthanded Bradley managed to keelhaul WMU in Bracket Busters, this set up sufficiently-well to suit us. Flames served our purposes nobly last weekend against overrated Northern Iowa, and have proven themselves more than capable of carrying on against this markedly-shorthanded entity. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO, 69-60.

BEST BET
*STANFORD over WASHINGTON STATE by 15
Respect Cougars’ court vision and tenacity, but a bad loss here isn’t going to linger come tourney time, and Cardinal are peaking (perhaps too early!) with their potent combination of height and court smarts. Problem with State down the road will be that their relative lack of athleticism catches up with them, sooner or later. Now, as well. STANFORD, 78-63.