Scott Spreitzer
direct line........................s.ill
direct line........................drake
main event.......................indy st
ko..................................baylor
ko..................................wash st
sec slam dunk goy............arkansas
tko.................................iowa
tko................................gozaga
5 star.............................kent
4 star.............................crieghton
ko..................................magic
5 star.............................sixers
Dave Cokin
fat man plays.................iowa, gozaga
champ club....................creighton
big shot........................pacific
gom.............................san diego st
window.........................nc wilm
under the hat.................drake
3 star...........................cal irv
3 star...........................troy
3 star...........................pistons
Jim Feist
island source.......................lasalle
totals.................................pitt under 45.5
........................................duke over 47.5
........................................nc over 58.5
personal best......................miss st
ivy goy..............................cornell
miss valley goy....................indy st
pac 10 goy.........................usc
platinum.............................santa clara
inner circle.........................ill-chic
5 star ..............................clev st
4 star...............................tex am
3 star...............................umass
total.................................spurs over 93
platinum............................pistons
inner circle.........................bucks
5 star...............................sixers
ATS lock club
8* Marquette
7* Gonzaga
7* Arkansas
6* Stanford
6* UCONN
5* Cal Riverside
Dave Malinsky comp 4* play (Dave is 9-1 last 10)
GAME: Wright State @ Valparaiso Mar 1, 2008 12:00PM
PICK: Wright State
Offered at: 5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* WRIGHT STATE over VALPARAISO
We don’t have to wait for the Horizon League tournament to get underway in a few days – it starts right here. Wright State is just a win away from clinching second place in the conference and a first round bye, and a savvy team behind an outstanding coach can be counted on to play under control in this one. That means the usual outstanding defense (allowing 57.9 points per game in conference play at 39.6 percent shooting), and valuing the basketball (only 12.5 turnovers per game in league action). And when you do that, is it any wonder that Brad Brownell is 11-2 ATS as a Horizon underdog the past two seasons? Now a team that has only lost one conference game by more than five points all season is being offered that in the marketplace against a fading opponent, and we will take full advantage.
Valparaiso entering the Horizon was a bigger step up that the marketplace has appreciated, and it has taken a toll. After a good early start the Crusaders are under .500 in conference play, and instead of being a confident unit down the stretch Homer Drew is doing some awkward juggling. There have been four different starting lineups over the last seven games as he tries to stem the physical and mental fatigue that has set in, and they nearly hit rock bottom on Thursday, when out-manned Detroit (leading scorer Jon Goode absent) had them down double figures on this court in the second half. They rallied to gut that one out, but it was another ATS failure as conference home chalk, where they are 1-5 for the season, including three outright losses.
The one advantage Valparaiso did have was getting to play a couple of league games in early December, and the Crusaders were in the right place at the right time to upset what was then a young Wright State team on the road. That still carries a full weighting in most of the data bases, which is why this line is as high as it is. But these teams have gone in opposite directions since then, with Brownell bringing the Raiders along to the point where they could stand toe-to-toe with Butler on the road Thursday, despite the fact that the Bulldogs were the ones playing with a revenge motive, and we expect the outright win here, with the points being offered a major bargain.
Larry Ness 3-pack
Miami-Ohio
Creighton
Southern Illinois
PSYCHIC
NCAAB
2 units Pittsburgh +3
2 units Virginia +6.5
3 units Gerogetown +3.5
3 units Texas Tech +6.5
WISEGUY Dayton +1.5
NBA
2 units San Antonio -6
Seabass
300* Ark
100* Miami
50* Georgia Souther, Memphis, Indiana St, Northeastern
20 St Johns, Ill St, marq, Miss St
Insider 100* Santa Clara
IndianCowboy has a NCAAB 5* today. Has anyone seen it? Thanks in advance.
Signature
5* Texas (GOY)
Red Dog
5* Ind. St (GOY)
Stan Low.
4'* Creighton
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Conf Slam Dunk Game of the Year! -- Saturday
I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Saturday. Vandy caught Tennessee at the perfect time with the Vols hard-fought win over Memphis and a first-ever #1 ranking. This time, it's the Commodores who're in "letdown" mode following their emotional win over the Vols. I'd side with the Hogs whether Vandy was in "letdown" mode or not, though. The Razorbacks are too athletic for Vandy and also own the big frontline to give the 'Dores fits inside, especially on the defenisve end. Arkansas' Steven Hill, Darian Townes, and Michael Washington go 7'0, 6'10, and 6'10, respectively. Making Arkansas and even tougher draw is guard Patrick Beverly, who not only makes a team concentrate their defense on the perimeter, but also cleans the glass for almost seven boards per game. He's off a poor outing and I look for a serious bounce-back from him. This team is incredibly athletic, but is also "long" which makes them ultra-tough on their home floor. The Hogs are also in need of an important win. Following their February 9 win over Ole Miss, Arkansas stood tall with a 17-5 SU record. But they've played four of their last five games away from home, and dropped all four road tilts. That's been the story for this team this season. They're 13-1 at home, winning by over 16 points per game. They're a disappointing 3-6 SU on the road. The Razorbacks are an almost perfect 9-1 as a home fave with an average final score of 77-to-63! Meanwhile, Vandy has already dropped four conference roadies this season, and they're just 2-4 SU/ATS as a road dog, overall, allowing 74 PPG! The Commodores are also a bankroll-busting, 4-9 ATS when playing with three or more days between games. Finally, Arkansas' athleticism allows them to take teams off the dribble. Vandy doesn't have the type of athletes to deny this fact on the defensive end. That means they'll likely be forced to play more zone than normal. That's bad news when facing Beverly, Sonny Weems, and Stefan Welsh, who combine for more than a dozen three-point attempts per contest. Arkansas has been, and will be a bad matchup for Vandy's style. In fact, the Hogs are the only team to beat Vandy each of the last two seasons in Nashville. Now, with the 'Dores off the emotionally high win over Tennessee, Vandy will be in an even tougher spot than normal. I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Heavy Hitter! (Only one in 2008!)
I'm laying the points with Indiana State on Saturday evening. Coach Kevin McKenna has led his Sycamores to major improvements in his first season at the helm. Now, they have a chance to wrap-up the regular season with a winning situation against an incredibly poor road squad. Missouri State is a horrible 0-8 on the conference road this season and just 1-11 in 12 road games, overall. The Bears are a bankroll busting 0-11 ATS on the road this season. They're averaging just 62 PPG outside of Springfield on 41-percent shooting, compared to over 72 PPG and 47-percent by the opposition. The Sycamores are 7-1 in home conference games with the seven wins coming by almost 12 points per game. McKenna has had great success as a division-II coach at Nebraska-Omaha, and as an assistant in two stints under Dana Altman at Creighton. He's turning the program in Terre Haute around rather quickly, and I expect nothing short of a 10 point win on Saturday. I'm laying the points with Indiana State. Thanks! GL! Scott.
FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take #716 Connecticut (-4.5) over West Virginia
West Virginia is just 1-5 SU against the RPI Top 50 and are coming off a dominating win on the road at DePaul. They’ve only played four road games in the last six weeks and they lost to the only decent clubs they played. That includes losses at Louisiville and Pitt, two teams with tough perimeter defense and a strong big man on the interior. That’s how UConn is built as well. UConn is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and is 4-1-1 AT in their last six home games. Connecticut has been playing down to its competition but they get amped up for quality opponents. They have already had some success in Hartford this year and I think they will shoot down WVU on this "neutral" court.
ATS lock club
8* Marquette
7* Gonzaga
7* Arkansas
6* Stanford
6* UCONN
5* Cal Riverside
Northcoast
Master Sports 4* G. Tech
Triple Crown Sports 4* Arkansas
Gator's NBA/CBB 70% Report
CBB
Saturday: Play On CBB road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points 39-10 ATS the last 5 seasons (79.6%) PLAY: Seton Hall +1.5
Sports Unlimited
20* Valparaiso
Executive
500* Valparaiso
Rockdeman Dog Of The Day
Miss St. +4
Malinsky
6* Drake
4* Conn
4* Wright St
4* Akron
STRIKE POINT SPORTS
3-Unit Play. #771 Take Old Dominion -1 over UNC Wilmington (4 pm)
Six straight wins for the Monarchs, and they are certainly peaking at the right time with the CAA tourney next weekend. They'll keep things going in the right direction here, having won eight of the last nine meetings vs. the Seahawks and also going 6-2-1 ATS in those games. Guard play will be the difference, and ODU will score the victory behind Brandon Johnson and Gerald Lee.
2-Unit Play. #755 Take USC +1.5 over Arizona State (6 pm)
The Trojans are stepping up and making sure they secure a bid for the Big Dance. Three straight wins in conference play, sweeping through the two Oregon schools as well as taking care of Arizona in Tuscon on Thursday. Now they get fellow Grand Canyon state program Arizona State, and this one will go to Southern Cal just the same. O.J. Mayo is playing his best basketball of the season, and he is getting help from fellow freshman Devon Jefferson and Taj Gibson. And with Daniel Hackett now back, we'll see an even stronger team in March. The underdog has gone 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and USC takes this one outright as the small dog.
2-Unit Teaser Play. #788 Take Indiana State -3.5 (+.5) over Missouri State (7 pm)
#825 Take St. Mary's +6.5 (+10.5) over Gonzaga (8 pm)
Senior night for the Sycamores, and they'll continue the road woes of Missouri State. Indiana State is 12-1 at home this season, while the Bears are 1-11 on the road. The Sycamores have also covered seven of their last eight in their home gym, and we'll see them score the win here in their final home game of the season.
The Gaels have been strong all year, with only bad setbacks early in the season at Southern Illinois and to Texas. I expect a very good game in Spokane and for this one to be decided by just a couple of baskets either way. With Patrick Mills and Diamon Simpson, St. Mary's has the playmakers to give the Bulldogs issues on the defensive side of things. This number will be good here.
3-Unit Play. #813 Take Dayton +1.5 over Fordham (7 pm)
The Flyers need to cook up a little momentum heading into the A-10 tourney, and with freshman Chris Wright possibly back I think they get a nice road win over a bad Rams team. Fordham is just 11-14 this season and only 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games. Dayton can still get to 20 wins this season, and this one will help them in that chase for an NCAA birth.
2-Unit Play. #901 Take Tennessee Martin +6 over Murray State (8:30 pm)
The Skyhawks have been a big moneymaker this season with their 17-8-1 ATS mark. They are on a roll in their latest current push, winning six straight and eight of their last ten, including five straight covers. Conversely, Murray State is just 3-5 in its last eight games and are just 2-7 ATS in its last nine lined games. The high scoring Skyhawks will again cash and come through, thanks to another strong effort from big time scorer Lester Hudson.
3-Unit Play. #877 Take Pacific -2.5 over Cal Poly SLO (10:30 pm)
The Tigers owe Cal Poly some revenge after losing their first meeting at Pacific earlier this year. They fell as double digit favorites in one of their worst games of the year, so I expect a much more inspired effort to get their 20th victory of the year. Pacific is the better team here, and they'll show it here with a strong road win.