LT Profits
North Carolina +1.5
Games do not get much bigger than this one on Tobacco Road, as the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils battle for the ACC regular season title. Perhaps more importantly, the winner of this contest may be assured of a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Now Duke did win the first meeting between these schools handily this season 89-78 at Chapel Hill, but keep in mind that was the first came the Tar Heels played without their injured point guard Ty Lawson, and it showed in their performance. The Heels did improve without Lawson soon after that though, and he is now back and fully motivated after missing that first encounter.
North Carolina has won seven straight games since the Duke defeat, and after squeaking by without Lawson for a couple of games, the last five wins have all been by double-digits, with an average winning margin in those five contests of +18,4 points! Also, do not lose sight of the fact that the Tar Heels are 19-8, 70.4 percent against the spread this season with an overall AMOV of +17.2 points, this despite being a popular team among bettors, which generally results in inflated lines.
Now Duke has gone in the other direction since beating the Heels in the first go-around, going just 3-5 ATS in the eight games since then including shocking outright losses to Wake Forest and Miami Florida. Now granted, they are 15-0 straight up at home, but they are just 2-2 ATS here during this current eight-game swoon, and one of the covers came in a non-conference game vs. a thoroughly outclassed St. John’s team. They have obviously not hosted a team nearly of the caliber of North Carolina all season.
Besides, the Tar Heels do not mind visiting Durham, as they have won each of their last two visits here outright. In fact, UNC is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings with the Blue Devils. With Lawson now back in the lineup, we look for the better North Carolina team to get revenge for that first loss at home by winning here at Duke, locking up a one seed in the Big Dance in the process.
North Carolina +1.5
LEE KOSTROSKI
LSU @ Mississippi State
PICK: LSU
This game is completely meaningless for Mississippi State and the Bulldogs will play accordingly. They have already locked up the SEC West crown and are all but guaranteed a spot in the Big Dance. Mississippi State had a slim shot of winning the SEC regular-season crown outright Wednesday at Vanderbilt but suffered a 1-point overtime loss. That letdown, combined with nothing to play for, will lead to LSU pulling off an ATS win.
The Tigers got off to an inauspicious start to the SEC season and went through some trials and tribulations when former head coach John Brady was fired mid-season. But they have responded very well, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. That run includes the current four-game outright winning streak LSU is riding. The Tigers won at South Carolina and posted home wins over Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. They are playing very well right now and will give Mississippi State all it can handle.
LSU has also shown a great ability to hang tough on the road in SEC play. The Tigers are 5-2 ATS on the road against SEC competition, winning outright at Auburn, Florida and South Carolina. They have been potent offensively on the road, scoring 71 or more points in five of their seven conference road games.
The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as the underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. LSU is playing for pride in this game while Mississippi State has nothing to play for. That will translate into a LSU win. Take the Tigers on the road plus the points.
DOC'S
Cornell @ Princeton
PICK: Princeton
REASON FOR PICK: The Big Red have already clinched the Ivy League Title and will be making an appearance in the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 1980s. They were taking to the limit last night and I expect a similar result from Princeton tonight, as they have nothing to loss and lost by just 11 points in the early meeting, which took place in Ithaca. The Tigers have lost numerous close contests during this span and finally picked up a victory last night against Columbia. This game will be right down to the wire and getting the points makes this a solid play for the home squad.
Ryan's 5* NHL Monster Game of the Week
5* Carolina
Sports Investors
Minn
SD ST
Northeastern
Ill St
NO over (NBA)
Asa 6*
Cleveland State
Dr Bob 2 Saturday night Best Bets.
George Mason (-6 1/2) 2-Stars at -7 or less, 3-Stars at -6 or less.
San Diego (-12) 3-Stars at -13 or less, 2-Stars at -13 1/2 or -14.
Saturday Night College Opinions/Possible Best Bets
GEORGE WASHINGTON (+5 ½) over Massachusetts
George Washington has one of the most extreme home-road dichotomies in the nation, as the Colonials play 12 points better at home than they do on the road (after adjusting for opponent and normal home court advantage). GW is only 3-9 ATS in road or neutral games but they Colonials are 6-1 ATS at home, upping their mark to 37-18 ATS in their last 55 lined home games. That includes a 13-1 ATS mark when not favored by more than 3 points (6-0 ATS this season) and 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or more (4-0 this season). My ratings favor U Mass by 4 ½ points and the home-road number on this game would be pick. GW would apply to a 45-13-1 ATS strong home court underdog situation if they become an underdog of 6 points or more and I’d take George Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more while leaning with the Colonials at +5 ½ or +5 points.
UTEP (+1) over Houston
Since the beginning of 2008 the Miners have lost 3 in a row to the spread, covered 2 straight, then lost 2 to the number, then covered 2 in a row, then failed to cover 3 straight, and then covered 2 more, then lost 3 straight to the spread heading into tonight final home game. UTEP hasn’t lost more than 3 in a row to the spread all season and they are due for a good game tonight given that they apply to a 76-27-6 ATS last home game bounce-back situation as well as a 108-39-4 ATS last home game revenge situation. Those two situations combine to go 12-1-1 ATS when they both apply and Houston is certainly capable of beating the Cougars. I’d make this game a pick using all of UTEP’s games for the season, but the Miners haven’t been as good in conference play and my current ratings favor Houston by 2 points. I’m not interested in giving up line value to make the Miners a Best Bet, but I’ll lean with UTEP at +1 or pick and I’d take UTEP in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more.
TULANE (-9 ½) over East Carolina
East Carolina is a much better team at home than they are on the road and the Pirates are riding a 3 games win streak that includes an upset home win over Houston. That streak also includes two wins over horrible teams SMU and Rice and that win against Rice was the first road game that the Pirates have won or covered all season (and that game wasn’t really on Rice’s home court since the Owls are playing their home games at a few different venues this season while their facility is being renovated). ECU has lost by an average score of 62.7 to 90.4 in their other 7 road games while losing all of those by at least 14 points. Tonight the Pirates apply to a negative 43-110-4 ATS situation that is based on their 3 game straight up and spread win streak. Tulane has lost 8 consecutive games after starting the season 15-6 and 5-2 in conference play but my season ratings favor Tulane by 9 ½ points using a standard home court advantage and by 11 ½ points using the appropriate home court edge given East Carolina’s horrible road performances this season. I’m a bit concerned about Tulane’s losing streak (also 7 straight spread losses), but I would get a prediction of Tulane by 13 points using only their 8 games during their current losing streak against ECU’s 8 road games – so the Green Wave’s recent negative trend is out-weighed by the Pirates’ negative road trend. I’m still reluctant to make Tulane a Best Bet, but I will lean with the Green Wave at -10 or less.
HSW
7* North Carolina
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ATS Lock
7 Tulsa (8PM)
7 UCal Irvine (10PM)
2 unit(?) parlay
6 UCal Riverside (10PM)
6 Cleveland St. (4:30PM)
5 Tex Tech (went earlier)
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This one already tipped off...
PLAY OF THE DAY: NOTRE DAME vs SOUTH FLORIDA
Play: Notre Dame/South Florida Over 149
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HIS PLAYS HAVENT BEEN POSTED MUCH THE LAST FEW DAYS ???