Mike Rose
Los Angeles Avengers @ Georgia Force u105.5
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions hook up at Gwinnett Arena on Saturday night when the (2-0) Los Angeles Avengers hook up with the (0-2) Georgia Force. The Avengers are widely considered a team on the rise in the AFL, and a legitimate threat to hoist the hardware in New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Force have fallen from last year’s 14-2 result to open up the 2008 campaign with back-to-back losses, a pain they haven’t felt since the end of the 2006 season. The last time Georgia lost three straight games was in 2004, when they lost six in a row.
The schedule for the Avengers has been notably weak, playing host to the New Orleans VooDoo and traveling to the desert to take on the Arizona Rattlers. In both games, the opposing starting QB was knocked out in the first half, making the 2nd half easy pickings for the defense. Should LA knock Force QB Chris Greisen out of the game, rookie Ben Dougherty will have to take his first AFL snaps, though he has indoor football experience with the Tallahassee Titans of the AIFA. Though 2nd year QB Sonny Cumbie avoided turning the ball over following his 3 INT outing from Week 1, he only completed 51.7% of his passes (15/29) against a questionable Rattlers defense in Week 2. WR/KR Timon Marshall has been as good as advertised this season, averaging 174 all-purpose yards and 2.5 TDs per game. The LA “D” has been opportunistic, forcing six turnovers thus far.
Statistically speaking, the Force have been a complete mess in 2008. After one week, the team released its leading receiver, Brent Holmes (156 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1), their QB is on a pace to throw double the INTs of a year ago, they have a grand total of ZERO rushing yards, and the offense that averaged close to 63 PPG last year has only managed a shade under 45 PPG. The defense hasn’t been much to write home about either, giving up 120 points in just two games and only forcing two turnovers. One must remember that Georgia did take on Dallas and Tampa Bay in their first two weeks, arguably the two toughest teams in the AFL.
Georgia home games have gone under the ‘total’ in 5 of their L/6, while LA is 6-3-1 towards the under in their L/10 roadies. The current ‘total’ is a very reasonably 105.5, so hit the Under up in what should be a defensive minded affair....
James Patrick Sports
Pacers vs. Magic
It’s simple mathematics in this NBA contest as the defensively challenged Pacers allow a league worst 39% on three-pointers while the young Magicians rank among the league leaders in both treys and made three-point percentage. Pacers are allowing 105 points a game and with the Magic having played last night at Miami don’t expect a solid defensive effort from them either here. Indiana has gone Over the Total in 7 of past 8. Our Saturday Night NBA selection is Pacers –Magic OVER the TOTAL.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Sacramento Kings
Note: Suns play host to the Kings in a Western Conference clash in Phoenix with a handful of good handicapping situations surrounding Sacramento in this contest. For openers, the Suns check in off a same season double revenge win over Golden State knowing they have covered the number in only 4 of their last 14 tries in games after taking on the Warriors. Meanwhile, the Kings are 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in games after playing Portland, including 4-0 ATS as a dog. With Sacramento looking to avenge three same season losses, look for Phoenix to come up flat here tonight. Grab the points with the triple revenging Warriors.
Dave Cokin
Grizzlies @ Warriors
Play: Warriors
Huge number in tonight's Memphis-Golden State clash, but the big chalk looks to be the right side. The Warriors will have free reign to play their fast tempo against the soft Memphis defense, and off a loss Golden State figures to come to play. The bigger factor is the astounding deficits the Grizzlies are racking up in their latest losing streak. The last ten Memphis losses have all been blowouts, with average margin a staggering 21 points. This one should definitely be in that range as well, so the Warriors minus the points are the choice.
Greg Daraban
Minnesota (15-49) at Portland (34-32)
Minnesota playing decent basketball winning 4 of 10.
The Blazers were crushed in Sacramento on
Thursday. Both teams can play some defense when called
upon. The Blazers 5-5 in their last 10.
Portland looks to miss the playoffs but they
are getting ready for 2008-2009. They have held their
last 3 opponents under 100.
Low scoring game at the Rose Garden
Take Min/Por Under
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Los Angeles Kings at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: under
Reason: The Kings have played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. Western Conference opponents. The under is 8-2-1 in Minnesota's last 11 games. In the Wild's last 6 games played with 1 day rest between contests the under is 4-1-1. The under is 10-1-2 in the Kings last 13 trips to Minnesota. The under is a profitable 18-3-4 in the last 25 meetings between the clubs. Play the under.
Ted Sevransky
Los Angeles Avengers @ Georgia Force
PICK: Georgia Force
REASON FOR PICK: I don’t often use NFL analogies when handicapping Arena Football, but this is one instance where an NFL analogy makes perfect sense. Think back to the beginning of this past NFL season, when San Francisco was sitting at 2-0, after beating Arizona and St Louis. The talking heads on TV were starting to call the 49ers Super Bowl contenders in the NFC. That was reflected in their Week 3 pointspread as they traveled to Pittsburgh as very moderately priced underdogs. The Niners got waxed 37-16, facing significantly better competition than what they had faced in the first two weeks of the season, as Mike Nolan’s squad overvalued by the betting marketplace for beating up on weak teams.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the other side of that story. Philly lost to Green Bay and Washington in the first two weeks of the season. At the time, neither team was highly regarded, both expected to finish with sub. 500 records. The Eagles came home in Week 3 to face the mighty 2-0 Detroit Lions (note my sarcasm), and were vastly undervalued by the betting marketplace because of their bad start. Philly dominated Detroit 56-21, a game that was over by halftime, for the easy win and cover.
The LA Avengers can be compared to the 49ers in this story, and the Georgia Force can be compared to the Eagles. Strength of schedule has an enormous impact on this pointspread, giving us significant value with the home underdog. The 2-0 Avengers have looked great, but they’ve been beating up on two of the weakest teams in the AFL, both playing with backup quarterbacks. The Force have struggled mightily in their 0-2 start, but they’ve faced a pair of elite level foes. The fact that Georgia is a home underdog in this game is a little bit ridiculous – remember, this team went 14-2 last year, and even if they are down a notch or two in 2008, the Force are not a bottom tier ballclub. LA looked really good on national TV on Monday Night, but they were facing a bad team with their bad backup quarterback.
Again, I’ve got a pertinent analogy. Week 1 of this AFL season, Chicago took advantage of numerous San Jose miscues on national TV on Monday Night. In Week 2, the linesmakers overreacted , installing Chicago as a favorite against elite level Philadelphia. The Soul controlled the game, winning by double digits on the road. A single national TV win the previous week has an enormous impact on the pointspread in the AFL – too much of an impact in this case.
So now, we’ve got an overvalued favorite, traveling 3000 miles across the country on a short week. We’ve got a ‘circle the wagons’ type of game for the home underdog that is a good notch or two better than they’ve looked in losses to a pair of top notch squads. This pointspread is, quite simply, wrong. Look for the Force to right the ship against the Avengers on Saturday Night in Atlanta. Take Georgia +3
WINNINGPOINTS
***BEST BET
*Philadelphia over San Antonio by 4
Overlook the 76ers and you’ll be in trouble. Philadelphia had covered its last 10 home contests through March 9. Despite this, San Antonio very well could overlook the 76ers. The Spurs might even be excused for this since they are off consecutive road contests against New Orleans and Detroit and have a marquee home matchup on Monday against Boston. PHILADELPHIA 100-96.
***BEST BET
*New Jersey over Utah by 7
Chemistry is better with the Nets these days. There’s more defensive intensity. Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter remain capable of explosive performances. The Jazz are going to be one tired team, playing for the fourth time in five days and off a road game last night against the Celtics. Andrei Kirilenko (check status) missed time last week dealing with a sore hip. NEW JERSEY 101-94.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SATURDAY, MARCH 15
BEST BET TOTAL UNDER
SAN ANTONIO over *PHILADELPHIA by 6
The Sixers have been doing a great job of winning games lately and if they weren’t themselves finishing a back-to-back, they’d be in great position to steal a game from the Spurs. Unfortunately for them, both these teams are finishing five-game weeks nullifying any potential advantage they would have on each other. This should ensure that San Antonio pulls out the road win, but don’t expect too many points in the process from two very weary teams. SAN ANTONIO 87-81
ROB VENO
Minnesota at Portland
Recommendation: Blazers
Quick turnaround game here finds the Blazers with a day’s rest against Minnesota in the second of back-to-backs. The back-to-back situation hasn’t suited Minnesota well lately as in three of their last four tries they’ve been annihilated. The common thread has been, T-Wolves in back to back games versus winning teams where their three losses have been by 29, 22 and 25. While you have to respect Minnesota’s extreme increase in competitive play the past six weeks, must also note the sudden resurgence of the Blazers who are on a 6-1 ATS run heading into Monday night’s game at Cleveland. The return of three-point specialist James Jones to the lineup has proven to be significant. Also noteworthy during Portland’s current streak has been the sparkling point guard play of Steve Blake who has had 35 assists and just six turnovers. In the pair of meetings prior to this Tuesday’s game, Portland has dominated Minnesota winning by 11 points and covering each time. Difference at this point between these teams is the defense where Minnesota still lingers among the NBA’s worst as they allow 46.7% field goal shooting. Meanwhile, Portland ranks fifth in the league yielding just 44.5%. Erratic Timberwolves shooting plays into the hands of Portland’s tight defense and any containment at all of T-Wolves interior force Al Jefferson should make this another easy victory for the Blazers.
TIM TRUSHEL
Utah at New Jersey
Recommendation: Nets
While the Utah Jazz have won their last two road games, they are hardly a relied upon commodity away from home. With a league best 28-3 mark at home, their 14-19 mark on the road has been overlooked by the masses in the marketplace. We get tremendous value in playing against this team away from Salt Lake City. On the season the Jazz are just 7-10 against the spread as a road favorite. They have played five games in which they were a road favorite with no rest. Having already lost outright to the likes of the New York, Indiana and Sacramento in that situation there is little reason to expect a peak performance off a projected tough Friday night game against Boston. On the other side of the equation there is little reason to get excited about much of anything the Nets are doing either. At press time New Jersey is wrapping up a five game road trip and in the midst of a five-game losing streak. However it should be noted that they have won outright five of their last seven games at home. They’ll will play Cleveland on Wednesday upon returning home from a long grueling Western conference swing. With three days of rest this game again Utah will be the Nets only game over a period of five days. I expect that we will get the best effort the Nets have to offer and with so many factors stacked up against Utah, the result is projected to be a spread cover
TEDDY COVERS
San Antonio at Philadelphia
Recommendation: Sixers
Philadelphia is as hot as any team in the NBA right now, with their current pointspread run up to 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. The majority of that success has come at the Wachovia Center, including a 9-1 SU, 10-0 ATS run in their last ten home games. That streak includes outright upset victories over the Magic, Mavericks and Wizards. The 76ers hung tough with San Antonio when these two teams met back in January, covering the spread with relative ease in a seven point loss, a game they led through the end of three. This time around, the Sixers will get the Spurs on the second night of back-to-backs for San Antonio. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS in that role this season. That includes an ugly loss at Denver this past weekend, a game where the Nuggets clearly had more energy than the oldest team in the NBA, hitting at a 54% clip from the floor against the Spurs vaunted defense. San Antonio has been consistently overvalued of late, winning five out of six in straight up fashion but only covering a single pointspread in those six ballgames. On the road, the Spurs have been a 40 percent ATS proposition all year long, cashing only a dozen tickets in thirty tries. Expect San Antonio to have their hands full with this surging Sixers squad, with Philadelphia more than capable of pulling off the outright upset win.
MARTY OTTO
San Antonio at Philadelphia
Recommendation: Over
The Spurs come up in a definite “play against” spot this weekend in the back-to-back situation. Popovich’s boys cruised through the first half despite losing the service of Tony Parker for long stretches. We didn’t hear much about the Spurs with the emergence of the Hornets, the stellar play of the Suns, big name trades that got the Lakers in contention and the Rockets winning 18 straight while also losing Yao Ming. Yet the “aging” Spurs are proving once again to be, at least in my mind, the best team in the NBA, sitting quietly just a half game behind LAL for first in the West. San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and their seasonal numbers will back that up, ranking in the top five or six in nearly every major statistical category. But on the second night of back to back games (like Saturday’s matchup with Philly) we see a drop in those numbers,and a drop in the Spurs SU/ATS success. In fact, against teams I rank as “run-n-gun” style offenses, we see a significant drop, one that lends itself to this play. Over the past three years San Antonio has given up an average of 106 ppg against these qualifying teams, while also scoring 104 ppg. Perhaps no team is as willing and able to get up and down than the Sixers right now, scoring at least 100 points in six of seven entering the new week, eclipsing 117 three times in that stretch
FAIRWAY JAY
Utah at New Jersey
Recommendation: Nets
Good spot for the Nets, who catch a hot Utah team traveling the entire week and playing their fourth road game in five nights. Especially helpful will be that the Jazz will have battled Boston the night before, the East’s top team. Utah enters the week with five-straight wins and is battling for the top spot in the Western Conference. And while New Jersey let us down last weekend to snap our own 9-0 run in NBA action, the Nets are showing signs of improvement and better team play with the acquisition of Devin Harris in the Jason Kidd trade. Harris is fitting in well with Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and the young nucleus of the Nets. New Jersey enters the week just a half game out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, and they will be rested and motivated for this home game having not played since Wednesday versus Cleveland. Former Connecticut stars Marcus Williams and Josh Boone provide the Nets with some young talent to compliment Harris, and Williams’ scoring production has taken off in March. Bostjan Nachbar returned to the lineup last Saturday following a hip flexor injury, and gives the Nets an inside presence to help 7-footer Nenad Krstic. Despite an NBA best 28-3 home record, Utah is sub .500 on the highway (14-19) as they start their Eastern road trip. This is a good spot and scheduling situation to support the Nets as a home underdo
JARED KLEIN
New Jersey at Colorado
Recommendation: Avalanche
The red hot Colorado Avalanche host the New Jersey Devils at the Pepsi Center this weekend. When I watch this Avalanche team play, I fell like I’m going back into 1999 and 2000 because with the acquisitions of Peter Forsberg and Adam Foote, it truly feels like they’ve gotten the band back together again when they won the Stanley Cup. Forsberg had his first multi-point game last weekend at home against the Dallas Stars and I expect him to be a point-per-game contributor for them from here on out. “It’s very tough coming in here this late in a season, so it’s good to get a couple of points,” Forsberg was quoted as saying. Since bringing those two aboard, Colorado has won five straight games and have gone 7-3 in their last ten. This is also a team that plays really well at the Pepsi Center as they’ve gone 22-13, which is tied for the most wins on home ice in the NHL. The New Jersey Devils have the best record in the Eastern Conference with 86 points and are currently riding a three-game win streak, but this is going to be a very difficult trip for them due to the “Mile High” element. It will also mark the end of a four-game road swing for New Jersey. I look for the Avalanche to continue their torrid pace and get a big win on their home ice this weekend at a decent price.
Ben Burns
Game: Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars
Prediction: Dallas Stars
Reason: I played on the Canucks a little over a week ago. At the time, they had lost four straight games and we're 'desperate' for a victory. They responded with one of their better efforts in recent memory, en route to a 6-2 victory over Nashville. That was followed by back to back wins over St. Louis and Los Angeles. Next, the Canucks stepped up in class and promptly suffered a 4-1 loss at Anaheim before getting blanked 2-0 at Phoenix. That gives them just three goals in their last three games and makes it seven of nine games in which they've scored two goals or less. That type of offensive production doesn't win many games. The one advantage that they usually have is that star goalie Roberto Luongo gives them an edge over most opposing netminders. That won't necessarily be the case tonight though, as Marty Turco has owned the Canucks over his career. Indeed, he's gone 15-3-1 with a 1.75 goals-against-average vs. Vancouver for his career. That includes a 9-1 mark with a 1.34 GAA in 11 'home' games. Not surprisingly, the Canucks have lost seven straight trips here, most recently a 3-2 loss here last month. While they'd love to avenge that loss, its worth noting that they're just 42-58 (-29) the last 100 times they faced a team which had beaten them in the previous meeting.
So, we know that the Canucks have had trouble scoring recently. We also know that they'll be facing a team and goalie which they always tend to struggle against. Making matters worse, their defensive corps is severely banged-up. Already without defensemen Aaron Miller and Lukas Krajicek, they're now also without Mattias Ohlund, who is out for the season. Not only does that hurt the defense but it hurts the offense, as Ohlund is their top offensive defenseman and has nine goals (24 points) on the season.
After blowing a lead and losing 5-3 to Detroit last time out, the Stars figure to be in a foul mood. They're a highly profitable 115-64 (+39.6) over the past decade when coming off a loss by two goals or more and they should continue their home ice series dominance this evening.
Tom Scott
Michigan State vs Wisconsin
Play ON: MICHIGAN STATE plus the points
The fact that Michigan State is playing this game with triple revenge makes the Spartans appealing in this game. Not only did Sparty suffer a humiliating 57-42 loss in Madison two weeks ago, he can't help but remember being tossed from this tournament last season by these same Badgers. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games with tourney revenge and 6-1 ATS in its last seven post season games when playing with revenge. The Spartans have tournament pedigree with 36 SU wins in their last 52 post season games, including 23-8 vs the money when their opponent is off a SU and ATS win and 16-4 to the line when the foe is off a double-digit win. Wisconsin had a walk in the park yesterday against Michigan. Today the Badgers find out that all teams from the Wolverine state are not the same. Tom Izzo will get it done here.
PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 65 - Wisconsin 58
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +9.5
The Kings have won back-to-back games SU and ATS and I like them giving the Suns all they want and more in this one. The Kings are 18-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 25-15 ATS as an underdog this season period. The Suns are only 6-19 ATS in home games after a game giving up 20 or more offensive rebounds since 1996 and 5-15 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. The Suns are also 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Kings are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oddsmakers are giving the Kings too many and we'll take advantage.