Nick Parsons
Cleveland Cleveland @ Milwaukee Bucks (+)
The Bucks have certainly had a disappointing season overall. However, they are a respectable 17-17 at home this season while the Cavaliers are a disappointing 16-20 on the road this season. Even as the Cavaliers play has improved recently they have continued to struggle on the road. With this being a very tough scheduling spot for the Cavs, their road struggles are likely to continue. The Cavaliers are off of a win versus Toronto last night but they pulled away late in the game for cover as Cleveland actually trailed heading to the fourth quarter. Tonight's game will be the fifth game for the Cavaliers in the last seven nights. It certainly is a much better situation for the Bucks as they are playing just their second game in their last seven nights and the home court edge should also help Milwaukee here. The Bucks are just 1-8 in the month of March but note that the one win came at home and four of the losses that came at home came by an average margin of only 3.5 points per loss. There is definitely some significant line value with the home dog in this one. Play the Bucks on Saturday!
Larry Ness
GOY Duke 9*
www - Wisconsin 7.5*
OE - Stanford 8*
LI - NO Hornets 8*
Comp - Xavier
Will Cover
3* Hornets
2* Sac Kings
2* Pho Suns Over
Marc Lawrence
526 Duke -3.5 vs 525 W.Virginia
Analysis: Play On: Duke
Note: Blue Devils take on the Mountaineers in 2nd round action of the NCAA tourney off a near shocking narrow one-pont win over Belmont Thursday night. That set the table for this game as teams in Round Two of the NCAA tourney off back-to-back ATS loses are 20-4 ATS as a dog or favorite of less than 5 points if they scored less than 75 points in their opening round game. Better yet, they improve to 10-0 SU and ATS if the opponent loss to the spread by 10 or more points in its previous game before entering this tourney (confirming it vulnerability). Toss in WVU coach Bob Huggins' 0-6 SU and ATS career mark in Game Two of this tourney as a dog or favorite of 5 or less points and we'll back Coach K and his Blue Devils here today.
Marc is back on another winning run in the NBA, cashing once again last night with another Perfect Revenge Play with Orlando. He's now 15-6 on his last 21 NBA Best Bets! Get on board for another Perfect Revenge winner tonight, you'll be glad you did!
530 Wisconsin -4.5 vs 529 Kansas St.
Analysis: Play On: Wisconsin
Note: Badgers battle the Wildcats in this 2nd round clash with solid edges abounding in their favor. For openers, Wisconsin is the top defensive club in this tourney, allowing less than 54 ppg. That's relevant considering that Kansas State is 13-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in games in which they scored 80 or more points this season, but only 8-10 SU and 3-13 ATS when they didn't (0-4 SU and ATS when they failed to score 72 points). Better yet, our database reminds us that dogs in the 2nd Round of this tourney, playing of an underdog win in which they covered the spread by more than 8 points (Kansas State), are 0-12 ATS when both teams are off back-to-back victories. In addition, head coach Bo Ryan is 8-0 SU and ATS with the Badgers against a .700 or less opponent off a Su dog win in which they won by 6 or more points. Back the better team, and the better coach, here today.
Marc is back on another winning run in the NBA, cashing once again last night with another Perfect Revenge Play with Orlando. He's now 15-6 on his last 21 NBA Best Bets! Get on board for another Perfect Revenge winner tonight, you'll be glad you did!
502 ATL 1.5 vs 501 ORL
Analysis: Play On: Atlanta Hawks
Note: Hawks host the Magic with 13-point same season revenge on their minds tonight, catching Orlando off last night's same season home revenge win over Philadelphia with another same season home revenger up next against San Antonio. That makes this a perfect revenge sandwich and with Atlanta battling for a playoff spot, we'll step in with the Hawks tonight. The Hawks are 9-4 ATS as a host in this series, including 5-1 with revenge. In addition, the Magic is 5-13 SU and ATS in games after facing Philadelphia, including 1-5 as a favorite when going into revenge. With Atlanta a sweet 8-1 SU and ATS at home with revenge against unrest opposition this season, we'll back the Hawks here tonight
Seabass
200 Mich st
50 wisc
50 Washington St
20 Kansas
20 Suns/Hou Over
Vegas Steam
100 UCLA
3G Sports
COLLEGE HOOPS
10* GAME of the WEEK: WASHINGTON ST -2.5
10* MARQUETTE +3
5* Michigan St +2
4* Duke -4
4* Xavier -3
ICEMAN HOCKEY
4* Pittsburgh Penguins
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: NEW JERSEY vs PHILADELPHIA
Play: PHILADELPHIA 76'ers -9 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Sixers -9 (POD)
This is as a good a play as any out there today and I saw this line last night. Sixers remember lost to the Nets in overtime back in November, come off an upsetting loss to a good Magic team who got revenge for a previous loss and now they play a Nets team to who they have revenge against. The Sixers were one of the best teams in the league over the past few weeks having won their last 8 of 9 prior to losing to the Magic which makes them now 8 of 10. Very rarely does this team win straight up and not cover and some of their impressive home wins by margins include 34 against Seattle, beating Milwaukee by 20 on the road, the Clips by 26 on the road and even the Pistons outright on the road. The Nets are not a fabulous road team, as remember they lost to the Bulls by 16 on the road, Houston by 18, Dallas by 20 and New Orleans and the Spurs by 11 on the road. I look for the Sixes to win by double-digits and get their frustration out today
INDIAN COWBOY: MIAMI vs CHARLOTTE
Play: CHARLOTTE -17
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Bobcats -17
Yes, I do love dogs, but what are good are dogs if they lose in certain spots. There is a reason why this line is huge today and that is because the Heat are simply horrible and the fact the Bobcats come off a very tough road trip. Remember, they have lost their last 5 ballgames and that road trip was very tough although they were competitive against Cleveland as well as Houston. The Bobcats also have revenge in this game losing by 20 to Magic earlier this year and of course, Marion is still questionable (trust me, I know, I have him on my fantasy team). Thus, Bobcats come home after a brutal road trip, they had covered 5 in a row including big home wins before that west road trip. They need a big win here, they have revenge, and I can see the Heat losing to a Bobcat team by 20 who is hungry for a win. I refuse to be afraid to make plays when I see value as if I feel like someone is in a good spot, or has a chance for a strong cover, a team is playing well or a team is just horrible, I am riding with it. I think 66% of the public here is wrong as well who side with the underdog in the Heat. The Heat are 1-4 ATS as underdogs of 13 points or more. Bobcats are 4-1 ATS as favorites of -11.5 or greater.
INDIAN COWBOY: SACRAMENTO vs MEMPHIS
Play: Memphis (NBA) ML +105
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Memphis ML +105
Could the Kings win this game by 1 point, I doubt it as I will just take the ML here and reduce the juice as I think the Grizzlies likely win this game outright. Look this team is playing well, they nearly won at Golden State as big double-digit dogs, they beat the Knicks last night on the road after leading late at Minny. This is a good team when they are healthy and it is no surprise they are balling out when Mike Miller has come back. With Gay, Warrick and Miller, this team can shoot the lights out of the ball. The Kings are a bit banged up and it is apparent they are not going to the playoffs, Beno is likely not to play and sure the Kings can win here but I think it is a tough stretch for them to get this road win as the Grizzlies are playing very well and the line is indicative of it. The Grizz have covered their last 4 and I am going to ride the train here as well as I think they cash on the money-line. This game is likely a shootout, but I'll take the home dog here. I think 75% of the public is wrong here today who side with the Kings, the Kings are 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a losing record at home - meaning they are not covering against the weaker teams in the league. Memphis is 4-0 ATS when facing a team with a straight up losing record meaning they are beating the other weaker teams in the league.
INDIAN COWBOY: NY Knicks vs Minnesota
Play: Minnesota (NBA) -9
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY SELECTION: Minnesota (NBA) -9
Like I said earlier, I think this is a day of favorites in the NBA this Saturday as if there are dogs that show up it is likely Memphis, the Bucks, the Clippers, the Sonics etc.... Minny comes off a tough loss to Indiana and this is a team that is showing life of late beating an upstart Memphis team at home, they did well against the Clippers and the Knicks occasionally do show up on the road - but Minny has revenge here, the Knicks can simply be horrible on the road as you saw in the Dallas game, Richardson is questionable and Randolph is out and it only takes one weak quarter for this team to lack focus such as against the Pacers. I think Minny can win this game by double-digits here as the Knicks are 1-5 ATS as road dogs and the trend that I liked the most is that Minny is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 ballgames after a straight up loss of 10 points or more. I think they bounce-back fairly well here at home.
Bobby Cash
15* Massachusetts
10* Pittsburgh
10* Notre Dame
10* Xavier
Stan Sharp
Marquette+3
triple dime
Sports Investors
Xavier
Celtics under
TeddyJune
10* each
A&M
Marquette
Washington State
Dr. Bob COLLEGE
Opinion
Wisconsin (-5) over Kansas State
22-Mar-08 01:20 PM Pacific Time
Kansas State surprised me by beating a very good USC team, but I’d be even more surprised if the Wildcats come close to winning this game. Wisconsin is 30-4 straight up and their 4 losses all came to teams that I rate higher than the Wildcats (Duke, Marquette, and Purdue twice). Kansas State is certainly capable of beating a good team, as a home win over Kansas and 1st round victory over USC would attest, but the Wildcats haven’t been able to consistently beat good teams this season. Kansas State is still just 4-8 straight up and 4- 8 ATS in 12 games against other NCAA Tournament teams and the Cats were on an 0-7 ATS run before beating USC on Thursday. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is on an 11 game win streak and has covered in 9 of their last 10 games. The Badgers stingy defense may not be able to stop Michael Beasley but can certainly shut down the rest of the Wildcats. Kansas State applies to a 0-12 ATS round 2 situation while Wisconsin applies to an 18-1 ATS NCAA tournament situation, so the technical analysis clearly favors the Badgers. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 4.2 points in this game but I’m willing to give up some line value given the strong situation favoring the Badgers. I’ll consider Wisconsin a Strong Opinion at -5 points and I’d take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 ½ points and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.OPINION - 2-Stars at -4 1/2, 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2 Star Selection
Purdue (+3) over Xavier
22-Mar-08 01:40 PM Pacific Time
Xavier was a better team overall this season than Purdue, as I also favor the Musketeers by 3 points using all games at equal weighting. However, Xavier’s rating was built up by beating up on bad teams and by winning by big margins at home. The Musketeers weren’t nearly as good against good teams or when playing away from home. Xavier did beat Indiana on a neutral floor in November, but they also lost at Arizona State by 22 points, lost at Temple by 19 points and lost to St. Joe’s twice away from home. Overall, the Musketeers were 4 points worse than their overall rating when facing teams of NIT quality or better away from home. Purdue is just the opposite, as the young Boilermakers played their best against other good teams and away from home, winning games against Louisville (neutral floor), sweeping Wisconsin, beating Michigan State by 6 points at home and losing to the Spartans by only 3 points in East Lansing. Xavier’s only bad outings against good teams were a 10 point early season loss at Missouri (when Missouri was at full strength and good) and a 9 point loss at Indiana when the Hoosiers were playing great (before head coach Sampson resigned). Purdue also has been much better from January on after their inexperienced team had adjusted to playing against Division 1 competition. Another indication that Purdue plays better against good competition is their 11-3 ATS mark in games when favored by 3 or less or getting points. Xavier, meanwhile, is only 3-5 straight up (2-6 ATS) as a favorite of 6 points or less this season. My ratings favor Purdue by 1 point and using only games against good competition yields a fair line of Boilermakers by 2 points. I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and consider the Boilermakers a Strong Opinion at +2 ½ or +2.2-Stars at +3 or more.
2 Star Selection
Washington State (-2 ½) over Notre Dame
22-Mar-08 03:40 PM Pacific Time
Washington State upped their level of play to destroy Winthrop with a 42-11 second half tally and their easy 71-40 win sets up the Cougars in a 21-0 ATS second round situation. My ratings favor Washington State by 2 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Washington State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less and for 3-Stars at -2 or less.2-Stars at -3 or less, 3-Stars at -2 or less.
Moneylockoftheday.
Digger's
Umass -5.5
Junior's
Ucla -10.5
Hawker's
Michigan St/ Pitt Over 132 Points
California Sports
4* Pittsburgh
4* Stanford
3* UCLA Under
ER Sports
Playmaker: Kansas State +4.5
Playmaker: New York +9