Alex Smart
Game: Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
Prediction: Washington Capitals
Reason: The Washington Capitals enter into this tilt against their hosts the Florida Panthers winning 7 of their L/8 overall , including 4 of their L/5 on the road, as they continue their desperate quest for a post season appearance. The Florida Panthers , who have lost 3 of their L/4 and are all but eliminated from this years play offs do not have as much to play for , thus making a very motivated Capitals team the right side this evening. Final notes & Key Trends: Washington is 5-0 L5 vs Eastern Conference foes.
Play on Washington (moneyline)
Robert Ross
Game: Xavier at UCLA
Prediction: UCLA
Reason: UCLA has not played two halves in either of its last two contests. Xavier steps up in class after its Thursday night nail-biter win over West Virginia in OT. XAVIER is 22-39 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game since 1997. UCLA is 31-14 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season since 1997. Take UCLA!
Lance's Lock
Todays play: Louisville +5'
Rob Veno
UCLA -6
Louisville +5.5
Frank Rosenthal
NBA HOOPS
701 SUNS-5.5 SB+
707 WARRIORS+8 SB
709 BOBCATS+6 SB
UNDER 192 SB+
COLLEGE HOOPS NCAA
714 UNC-5 SB+
OVER 154 SB
716 UCLA-5.5 SB
OVER 129 SB+
Dr. BOB
Saturday, March 29
Louisville (+5 ½) over North Carolina
North Carolina and Louisville have both been very impressive so far in this tournament, with both teams covering the spread in all 3 games. I expect Louisville to continue their pointspread run today as they qualify in a 20-4-2 ATS round 4 situation. Louisville struggled in their pre-conference schedule without big man David Padgett (4-6 ATS), but the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS with Padgett in the lineup, including 16-4 ATS when not favored by 14 points or more and 8-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 4 points or as an underdog so theyve played well against other good teams. North Carolina is 23-10-1 ATS this season but a lot of their spread wins were against mediocre or bad teams (12-2 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more) and the Tarheels are just 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 8 points this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 5 points after awarding the Heels 2 ½ points for playing in nearby Charlotte. As good as North Carolina has been in the tournament so far, my math model using only the 3 NCAA Tournament games for each team also favors the Tarheels by 5 points. The only thing keeping this from being a Best Bet on Louisville is the 114-75 ATS record of teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament. Ill lean with Louisville at +5 points or more. My predicted total is 153 points.
Xavier (+6) over Ucla
UCLA is just 0-5 ATS the last 3 years as a favorite of more than 3 points in round 2 or higher of the NCAA Tournament (0-2 ATS this year) and the Bruins are up against a scrappy Xavier team that is 5-0-1 ATS in all NCAA tourney games under coach Sean Miller and 6-0 ATS under Miller as an underdog of 5 points or more. My ratings favor UCLA by just 5 points and teams seeded #3 or worse are 15-5-2 ATS as underdogs in round 4 against teams seeded #2 or better since 1995. Ill consider Xavier a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and Ill lean with the Musketeers at +5 ½ or +5 points. My predicted total is 130 1/2 points.
WUNDERDOG SPORTS DAILY COMPS
MLB
Game: Detroit at Houston
Pick: Detroit +100
The Tigers and Astros will wrap-up a two- game series at Minute Maid Park this afternoon. It will be Nate Robertson against Shawn Chacon. The Tigers punished the Astros yesterday 10-0, which has been the theme for the Astros all spring. The 30 game spring tally for the Astros shows a bleak 225 runs allowed - more than any other team, and converts to 7.5 runs a game. Chacon has certainly made his contribution with a 7.00 ERA, allowing 29 base runners in just 18 innings. It's been a brilliant spring for Robertson as he has put together a 1.26 ERA, and we like the Tigers to take game 2.
Insider Sports Report
4* U.C.L.A. -6 over Xavier (NCAAB)
Range -4.5 to -8
3* N. Carolina -5.5 over Louisville (NCAAB)
Range -3.5 to -7.5
3* Phoenix/New Jersey (NBA) UNDER 224
Range 226 to 222
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Louisville
2. 50,000* Warriors
3. 50,000* Trail Blazers
1. Louisville- Neither one of these teams has faced much of a challenge in their path to this clash of the Titans, but that's about to change real quick, as both teams featured here are not only excellent defensively, but playing their best basketball of the season. The difference between these two squads is minimal, which is exactly I'm taking Louisville plus the points in this match up. But let me explain further...
Wondering whether the Cardinals can slow down a Tarheels offense averaging 96 ppg over their first three tourney games? The answer is yes, and there's two reasons why: A. Louisville is fundamentally one of the best defenses North Carolina will see all year, allowing 60 ppg on 38% shooting this season. Just ask Tennessee, who scored a measly 60 points on just 33% shooting Thursday. And B. The Cardinals have the size inside to stymy the Tarheels # 1 weapon, C Tyler Hansbrough, who'll be matched up against one of the few players with as much basketball IQ as he has in senior C David Padgett. If Washington State's bigmen were able to slow Hansbrough, then so can the Cardinals excellent frontline.
On the offensive end, Louisville may not have the firepower the Tarheels have, but they've got more than enough balance to make up for it. The emergence of F Earl Clark is huge, who's led the Cardinals in scoring in all 3 tourney games despite coming off the bench! Other than him, Padgett, Williams, Caracter, and Palacios make up one of the deepest and most talented frontline in the college game. And as we saw against the Vols, the Cardinals guards are rock-solid, with Smith and McGee contributed 13 points apiece!
Finally, one of the best examples of what can happen when you pressure this Tarheels team can be seen in their match ups with Clemson. Yes, Clemson, a team known for pressuring the basketball with a multitude of traps and presses. North Carolina played Clemson 3 times this season and for all the talk about their "ultra-efficient" offense, Carolina averaged almost 20 turnovers per game in those 3 contests. Not only is Pitino's defense similar, but it possesses better personnel than the Tigers, and it'll show tonight.
Bottom line, underestimate this Cardinals squad at your own risk, as they're coming off a trouncing of an excellent Tennessee team, and have all the pieces necessary to beat this North Carolina team outright here tonight. We'll take the points, but make no mistake, the Tarheels are in for the fight of their tourney, and going against a surging Louisville team that's 17-6 ATS since the New Year and 3-1 ATS as a dog, isn't my idea of a smart bet. In the end, count on Louisville to grab the cash in this one!
Take Louisville plus the points over North Carolina as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Warriors- This is exactly the kind of match up the Warriors love, facing another high-octane offense, that plays little to no defense... So why would you side with the Nuggets in this one? Yes, we all know the Warriors are sitting a 1/2 ahead of the Nuggets for the 8th and final Western Conference playoff spot, but that gives just as much motivation to Golden State as it does Denver, so you pretty much disregard that factor as its an even motivator.
Just look back at their recent match ups this season, in both games either: A. The Warriors won outright at Denver 105-95 Or B. The Warriors still kept it close, despite losing at home 124-120... What I'm trying to show you is the difference between these two teams is marginal at best, because neither plays any defense.
Speaking of defense, over their last 5 games, both teams are allowing an average of about 107.5 ppg. This doesn't bode well for Denver as the chalk, because clearly the Warriors want to run, and Denver will allow them to do it. Also, don't be too impressed by the Nuggets 4-game winning streak SUATS... If you look at the competition, Memphis, New Jersey, Toronto, Nowitzki-less Dallas, it just isn't anything to write home about.
Finally, match ups are a problem for the Nuggets, as the backcourt of Davis and Ellis can take advantage of the defensively inept Carter and Iverson. Iverson used to be a decent defender, but age and his love of offense has gotten the best of him. In the frontcourt, we'll give Denver a slight edge, but Jackson can be just as dangerous as Carmelo, while Camby and Martin can be maddeningly inconsistent at times.
Bottom line, I just don't see that much difference between these two teams, especially when you consider what's at stake in this match up. With just a 1/2 game separating these two teams, neither one can afford to lay an egg here, and I expect a high-scoring contest, coming down to the waning moments... Either way, we grab the cash!
Take the Warriors plus the points over the Nuggets in this NBA match up.
3. Trail Blazers- Its easy to say: "No Brandon Roy equals no win for Portland," but that would be short-sighted in this match up, as the Bobcats are anything but consistent on the road, while the Blazers play their best ball at the Rose Garden.
I know its been a struggle for these Blazers of late, but let's not get carried away.
They're still a much better team than the Bobcats, who've won just 8 games on the road all season, going 12-22-2 ATS away over that span. Sure, they beat the suddenly struggling Lakers (who lost to Memphis at home yesterday) at the Staples Center, but don't let one win erase a season's worth of road woes.
Biggest disparity between these two teams is defense, the Blazers have it, while the Bobcats could care less. Charlotte, allows 103 ppg on a ridiculous 48% shooting when they travel this season, and despite the Blazers recent troubles, they've been able to score points at home, averaging 103 ppg over their last 4 at the Rose Garden (3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS).
Remember guys, we're talking about a Bobcats offense that scored just 96 points in their win (but no cover) against the Sonics in their last one... The same Sonics defense that allowed a mind-boggling 168 points to the Nuggets two weeks ago! If the Bobcats had issues scoring in Seattle, just wait until they match up against this Portland defense tonight.
Finally, while Charlotte is not even in contention, at the very least the Blazers can make a nice run at the final playoff spot... Of course they won't get it, sitting 6.5 games back from Denver, but its a solid motivational factor for a team that will be on the upswing next season with Oden in the mix. The last thing the Blazers want is to finish the season tail-spinning, especially if they start losing to teams like Charlotte at the Rose Garden. In the end, Portland's defense makes the difference, en route to solid Blazers home win and cover in this one.
Take the Trail Blazers over the Bobcats in late NBA action Saturday.
2-Minute Warning = North Carolina
Scott Spreitzer
Game: Xavier at UCLA
Prediction: Xavier
Reason: I'm taking the points with the Musketeers on Saturday. Both of these squads jumped out to huge leads in their sweet-16 wins. Both teams were then forced to make big plays in the late stages to secure a berth in the elite-8. While it was no major surprise that WVU was able to get back in the game and take Xavier to the brink, it was a bit of a surprise that UCLA couldn't get the "kill" against WKU when they were up by 21 at the half, and up 55-36 several minutes into the second half. That's been the story for the Bruins this season. Many times, they have built double-digit leads, only to see most of it evaporate midway through the second half. Ben Howland is not making the right adjustments or counters, and it seems as though the Bruins are winning due to talent alone at times. Now, they face their most difficult test of the tourney thus far. Xavier puts six players in double-digits per game. Half-a-dozen Musketeers average between 10 and 12 points per game. In fact, six Musketeers scored between 8 and 18 points in their second round win over Purdue. Sean Miller is getting great leadership at the point from Lavender and the team is getting to the charity stripe. As talented as the Bruins are, they do go through long cold stretches. I believe it catches up to them in this one. I'm taking the points with Xavier on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Nick Parsons
Game: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: under
Reason: Member Pick: Play ON UNDER the total in Denver vs Golden State @ 9:05 ET – This total is simply too high. With the number of high scoring games that each of these teams have played in recent weeks it finally has forced the odds makers to overadjust and that’s the point they are at now with this total up to nearly 240. Note that Denver hasn’t played a game where over 239 points were scored since their “ridiculous” game at Detroit nearly two weeks ago when they combined with the Pistons to erupt for 256 points! Granted, the Nuggets have been involved in some high scoring games since then but nothing over the number of 239 that is currently posted on this game. Also helping the UNDER in this match-up is the fact that Denver does come into this game well rested and fresh legs helps a lot on the defensive end. The Nuggets also have seen what better defense can do for them as many of their recent wins have been attributable to finally clamping down on defense. The Nuggets are finally grasping the understanding that defense can win them some ballgames! As for the Warriors. Golden State certainly does not have a good grasp of the fundamentals of defense. However, even so, the Warriors haven’t played to a total over 239 (in regulation, note loss to LAL 3/24 was in OT) since they won at Atlanta 135-118 three and a half weeks ago. This total has simply been placed too high when you consider that both teams are rested (Warriors second game in five days too – just like Denver) and that the Warriors are coming off of a game where they only allowed 95 points! The odds makers are calling for a game where at least one of the teams gets to 120 and we’re not so sure that’s accurate based on the type of game flow we expect to see here. This one stays UNDER!
Tom Freese
Game: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
Reason: The Clippers are 4-1 Straight Up and 3-1-1 ATS their last 5 home games vs. the Grizzlies and they are 4-0 ATS off a double digit loss. Memphis is 1-6 ATS their last 7 meetings vs. Los Angeles and they are 22-33 as underdogs. The Grizzlies are 9-23 ATS off a straight up win and they are 0-6 ATS after playing yesterday if their starters combined to play 160 minutes. PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS -
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UNDER Ucla/Xavier
Game: Xavier vs. UCLA
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and Xavier to finish UNDER the number. After allowing a mere 20 points in the first half, the UCLA defense collapsed in the second half against Western Kentucky. I expect a MUCH better defensive effort for the entire game by the Bruins this evening. Note that the Bruins allowed an average of just 39 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games, both which stayed comfortably below the number. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER is still 10-4 in the Bruins' NCAA Tournament games the past three seasons. This season, they're allowing an average of just 58.5 points including just 54.8 their past four games. The boxscore shows that Xavier, which allows 63.5 point per game, comes off a high-scoring affair against West Virginia. However, that was only due to the game reaching overtime as the final combined score at the end of regulation was low enough to have stayed below the total. Note that West Virginia was 1-for-11 from long range. shot only 39 percent and were 8-for-21 from 3-point range. Despite Thursday's result, the UNDER remains a profitable 9-5 the last 14 times that the Museketeers were listed as underdogs. Look for this evening's game to be lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
NHL
UNDER Panthers/Capitals
Game: Washington Capitals vs. Florida Panthers
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Capitals and Panthers to finish UNDER the number. Huge game for the Capitals while the Panthers have more or less been reduced to playing spoiler. I'm expecting that to translate into a defensive affair. The Panthers continue to get solid goaltending from Vokoun, as he has allowed two goals or less in each of his last two games. Unfortunately, for Vokoun, he lost both those games as his team continues to have trouble scoring. Two games ago, the Panthers lost 3-1 at Tampa Bay. They followed that up by losing 3-2 here vs. Atlanta. A closer look at that game shows the score was actually 2-1 with one minute to go in the third. The Thrashers added an empty net goal and the Panthers added one with less than two seconds remaining. All the same, the final score fell below the number bringing the UNDER to 11-4 the last 15 times that the Panthers took the ice. Despite having the dangerous Alexander Ovechkin on their team, the Capitals have also been kind to under bettors of late. In fact, the UNDER is 13-5-1 their last 19 games. Part of their recent trouble has been an inability to score on the power play. Indeed, Washington is just 1-for-15 the last 16 times it had the man advantage. It's also worth noting that the Panthers have stopped their opponents' last 16 power-play chances. The most recent series meeting here snuck above the number with six goals. However, the UNDER remains a profitable 12-3-2 the last 17 series meetings here. A closer look at that February game shows that the score was tied 1-1 heading into the third period and that the winning goal came on a "lucky shot" (harmless wrist shot from the blue line that both the player and goalie admitted shouldn't have gone in) and that the sixth goal was an empty-netter. In other words, that game could have easily stayed below the number. I expect this evening's game to do so, as the UNDER improves to 15-8-2 on the season when the Capitals were coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals. *Southeast Total of the Month
FATJACK
Louisville +5 1/2
Opinion on UCLA under 130