Scott Sprietzer
5* socker gow..............memphis
5* total..............cavs under 82.5
5* total...............nets over 24
Dave Cokin
ncaa tourny goy............ucla
3*...................lville
under the hat.....................pistons
Jim Feist
ncaa tourny total of year........lville over
inner circle..................lville
5*..................xav
inner circle...................bulls
5*........................nuggets
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NCAA
UCLA-6
NBA
SUNS OVER 219
DETROIT-7
PSYCHIC
NCAAB
3 units Louisville +6
4 units Xavier +6
MAJOR
NBA
3 units Denver -7
5 units Phoenix -6.5
WISEGUY
DA STICK
NHL
15 units Ottawa -110
NHL GAME OF THE WEEK
Special K
5* Louisville
5* Xavrier
Vegas Runner
3* triple dime NBA GOM
Charlotte
triple dime
UCLA
double dime
Heels
NBA
double dime
Nets
PowerPlaywins
North Carolina -5.5
Alatex
15* Louisville
DR BOB
No Best Bets for Saturday, but I have one NBA opinion and opinions on both NCAA tourney games.
Sunday's Best Bets will be released on my Best Bets release page at .cfm?p=4 starting at 9:15 am Pacific on Sunday morning.
Saturday NBA Opinion
DENVER (-7) over Golden State
Denver’s annual late-season surge is well underway, as the Nuggets have covered in 9 of their last 10 games, and the inconsistent Warriors are due for a down game after beating Portland on Thursday. Denver is now 55-26-1 ATS from game 60 on (regular season only) under coach George Karl and the Nuggets are 77-46 ATS under Karl in home games if they did not play the previous night (15-4 ATS recently). Golden State, meanwhile, is only 8- 26-1 ATS after their last 35 wins and the Nuggets apply to a very good 64-15-2 ATS general situation. The problem with this play is the inflated line, as my ratings favor Denver by just 4 ½ points in this game. Using recent games only would result in a fair line of 6 ½ points, but that would assume that Denver’s trend of playing well later in the season has nothing to do with random variance – and there is certainly a good chance that it does. If I used Denver’s home games with rest against the Warriors games off a win then I could justify the higher line on this game (I would get a prediction of 7 ½ points), but that would assume that those team trends are 100% predictive, which of course they aren’t (or we’d all be hitting 70% simply playing team trends). I’ll lean with Denver at -7 points or less, but I will not make the Nuggets a Best Bet since the line is simply too high.
Saturday, March 29
Louisville (+6) over North Carolina
North Carolina and Louisville have both been very impressive so far in this tournament, with both teams covering the spread in all 3 games. I expect Louisville to continue their pointspread run today as they qualify in a 20-4-2 ATS round 4 situation. Louisville struggled in their pre-conference schedule without big man David Padgett (4-6 ATS), but the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS with Padgett in the lineup, including 16-4 ATS when not favored by 14 points or more and 8-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 4 points or as an underdog – so they’ve played well against other good teams. North Carolina is 23-10-1 ATS this season but a lot of their spread wins were against mediocre or bad teams (12-2 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more) and the Tarheels are just 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 8 points this season. My ratings favor North Carolina by 5 points after awarding the Heels 2 ½ points for playing in nearby Charlotte. As good as North Carolina has been in the tournament so far, my math model using only the 3 NCAA Tournament games for each team also favors the Tarheels by 5 points. The only thing keeping this from being a Best Bet on Louisville is the 114-75 ATS record of teams playing in their home state in the NCAA Tournament. I’ll lean with Louisville at +5 points or more. My predicted total is 153 points. Xavier (+6 ½) over Ucla
UCLA is just 0-5 ATS the last 3 years as a favorite of more than 3 points in round 2 or higher of the NCAA Tournament (0-2 ATS this year) and the Bruins are up against a scrappy Xavier team that is 5-0-1 ATS in all NCAA tourney games under coach Sean Miller and 6-0 ATS under Miller as an underdog of 5 points or more. My ratings favor UCLA by just 5 points and teams seeded #3 or worse are 15-5-2 ATS as underdogs in round 4 against teams seeded #2 or better since 1995. I’ll consider Xavier a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’ll lean with the Musketeers at +5 ½ or +5 points. My predicted total is 130 1/2 points.
VEGAS RUNNER
Steam Plays
OVER 184.5 CLE/DET (1*)
UNDER 191 CHA/POR (1*)