Saturday Service Plays

Doc's Sports

Take Under in Idaho State @ Northern Arizona

The Lumberjacks enter this game having lost three of their last four and are ready for some home cooking at the Sky Dome after three straight road games. They will have their hands full this evening tonight when they face Bengals, currently in third place in the Big Sky. Both teams need this win and we expect a grind it out style of game setting up a perfect situation with the under. Much of the Lumberjacks stats are misleading since they played a 4-OT game vs. Portland State and thus they do not have the same offensive punch as in year’s past. NAU wins but we will not worry if they can cover the number and just collect with the total.

Vegas Sports Informer

Take Portland over Washington

Portland and Greg Oden are finally playing great basketball and with the Wizards in town this game should be over quickly. If the number stays under double-digits I will be playing this game in a big way. The Blazers are 15-4 SU at home this year and are a solid 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games. After a tough one with Cleveland on Wednesday I think that Portland will be looking to come back with some fury. Washington is just too banged up and won’t stay close in this one.

Robert Ferringo

Take Illinois (-4.5) over Wisconsin

The Illini have been smoking at Champagne and are coming off a convincing blowout win over Ohio State this Monday. Illinois is 10-1 at home this year and owe the Badgers for the beatings that Wisconsin handed out last year. The Badgers have lost two of their last three games and this is simply an instance of two teams going in opposite directions.

SPORTS ADVISORS

Maryland (13-5, 6-4-2 ATS) at (2) Duke (17-1, 9-7-1 ATS)

Streaking Duke, looking to ascend to No. 1 in the rankings, takes on Maryland in an ACC battle at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

The Blue Devils rolled over North Carolina State 73-56 Tuesday for their ninth straight win, but they fell short of covering as a heavy 20-point home chalk in dropping to 1-3-1 ATS in their last five outings. For the season, Duke has averaged 80.1 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting, but those numbers have dipped over the past five games to 72.8 ppg on 44.7 percent shooting. Defensively, the Blue Devils are yielding just 60.8 ppg in their last five contests, nearly matching their season average of 60.3.

The Terrapins beat Virginia 84-78 Tuesday night to end a two-game SU skid, but they failed to cover laying 9½ points at home, halting a two-game ATS uptick. Over the last five games, Maryland has narrowly outscored its opponents (70.0-68.6 ppg), well off its average margin of nearly 10 ppg for the entire season (73.2-63.6), primarily due to the Terps shooting just 39.8 percent from the floor – including a dismal 25.6 percent from three-point range.

Duke won both of last year’s meetings, going 1-0-1 ATS, with the push coming in a 77-65 home win as a 12-point favorite. This rivalry has been pretty even in recent years, as the two squads have split the last 10 contests, with Maryland holding a 5-4-1 ATS edge.

The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6-1 on Saturday and 4-9-1 in conference. The Terrapins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven ACC tilts, but they are on pointspread runs of 5-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 7-2-1 in Saturday games.

The under for Duke is on tears of 19-7 overall, 8-0 in the ACC, 6-1 after a SU win, 11-5 after a non-cover and 16-5 at Cameron Indoor. Likewise, the under for Maryland is on rolls of 14-6 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 4-1 on the road, 11-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 in conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Kentucky (15-4, 9-4-1 ATS ) at Alabama (12-6, 6-7 ATS)

Kentucky aims to continue its run of success when it travels to Tuscaloosa for an SEC contest against Alabama at Coleman Coliseum.

The Wildcats topped Auburn 73-64 Wednesday for their 10th win in the last 11 games, but they fell short of covering as an 11-point home chalk, which ended a five-game ATS surge. Kentucky is off to a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) start in conference play, with the win over the Tigers being the closest of those contests, as the Wildcats have averaged 75.25 ppg while giving up just 60.25. That includes blowout road wins against Georgia (68-45) and a ranked Tennessee squad (90-72). Over the last five games, Kentucky is shooting a solid 49.4 percent, including 42.3 percent from three-point range

The Crimson Tide edged Mississippi 76-73 as a 6½-point home favorite Wednesday, ending a two-game SU hiccup but failing to cash for the third straight contest. Alabama has gone 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five games, working at a deficit in averaging 69.0 ppg while giving up 73.2. The Crimson Tide are shooting 44.3 percent from the field in that span, which is actually better than their season-long average of 43.8, but they have struggled from long distance in shooting just 25.8 percent over the past five games.

Kentucky is 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight clashes between these two teams, winning each of the past two years on its home floor, including a 62-52 victory giving 6½ points last February. The favorite has cashed in the last four meetings.

The Wildcats are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 in roadies, 8-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against winning teams, 9-3 on Saturday and 6-2 in SEC play. The Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, but they are on a 2-5 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road mark.

The under for Kentucky is on runs of 6-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1 in the SEC, 8-3 on Saturday and 7-3 against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Coleman and 7-3 in the last 10 contests overall. However, the over for Alabama is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-1 on Saturday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY

(22) Memphis (15-3, 10-7 ATS) at Tennessee (12-5, 7-7-1 ATS)

Instate rivals square off in a non-conference clash when red-hot Memphis makes the trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena.

The Tigers fried Rice 80-52 Wednesday, narrowly covering as an overwhelming 26-point home chalk as they ran their winning streak to nine games (6-2 ATS in lined contests). For the season, Memphis has outscored opponents by an average of more than 16 ppg (77.4-61.20); however, on the road, the Tigers average 66.0 ppg while giving up a shade more than that at 66.3.

The Volunteers are coming off a victory over another instate rival, knocking off SEC foe Vanderbilt 76-63 laying two points on the road Tuesday to end a two-game ATS hiccup. Tennessee is among the top scoring teams in the nation, putting up 82.9 ppg (eighth), and the Vols are even better on their home floor, averaging 85.9 ppg in outscoring opponents by just over 11 ppg (allowing 74.8 ppg).

Tennessee has cashed in the last four clashes between these two (2-2 SU), including a 66-62 road win last February catching 6½ points. The underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear in this series, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.

The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 6-2 overall and 5-2 after a SU win, but they also carry negative ATS trends of 0-4 against the SEC, 1-5 on the highway, 2-6 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 3-8 after a SU win of more than 20 points. The Volunteers are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 7-1 against Conference USA and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.

The under for Memphis is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover, but the over for Tennessee is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a SU win and 4-1 in non-conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE

Baylor (15-3, 6-4 ATS) at (6) Oklahoma (18-1, 8-6 ATS)

Oklahoma goes after its seventh straight victory when it hosts Baylor in a Big 12 meeting at the Lloyd Noble Center.

The Sooners turned back Nebraska 72-61 Wednesday as a 13-point home favorite, notching their sixth win in a row but ending a 3-0 ATS run. Oklahoma has had solid numbers on offense recently, averaging 76.0 ppg on 47.2 percent shooting (35.9 percent from three-point range) over the past five games. But defense has been the key in that stretch, as the Sooners are holding opponents to a stifling 35.6 percent from the floor (60.8 ppg).

The Bears ripped Kansas State 83-65 as a 3½-point road pup Wednesday for their second straight win and cover, following an 0-3 ATS stretch (1-2 SU). Baylor has averaged 82.0 ppg on 48.1 percent shooting in its last five starts, including 42.6 percent from long distance, but they’ve also given up 77 ppg on 45.5 percent shooting, with opponents hitting three-pointers at a 44 percent clip.

Oklahoma has owned this rivalry, winning the last 28 games SU, including all 24 since the formation of the Big 12. Last year, these two teams split the cash, with the Sooners winning 77-71 at Baylor getting 4½ points, then eking out a 92-91 overtime home win as a 5½-point chalk. Oklahoma is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the favorite is on an 11-5-2 ATS roll.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record, and they are on a 5-2 ATS run in Saturday games. The Bears are on a handful of positive ATS runs, including 5-1 on Saturday, 14-5 on the road, 13-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 21-9 after a spread-cover and 17-8 following a SU win.

The under for Oklahoma is on runs of 7-0 on Saturday and 9-2 in Big 12 play, but the over is 6-1 in the Sooners’ last seven at home, and the over for Baylor is on sprees of 21-7 overall, 6-1 against winning teams, 12-3 on the highway, 20-7 on Saturday and 36-16 against the Big 12. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four straight meetings in Norman and six of the last seven overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER

(13) UCLA (15-3, 8-9 ATS) at Washington (14-4, 10-6 ATS)

UCLA, coming off a tight victory across the state in Pullman, heads to Seattle for a Pac-10 clash with surging Washington.

The Bruins nearly blew a 13-point halftime lead at Washington State on Thursday, barely holding on for a 61-59 victory, falling short as a five-point road chalk. The win came on the heels of last Saturday’s 61-58 overtime home loss to Arizona State. For the season, UCLA has outscored opponents by more than 16 ppg (74.7-58.6), but that margin has been tighter on the road (68.2-61.4) and over the last five games (69.8-62.8).

The Huskies beat Southern Cal 78-73 as a 6½-point home chalk Thursday for their third straight win (2-1 ATS) and their 12th victory in the last 13 games (7-4 ATS in lined contests). Washington has been racking up the points in Pac-10 play, averaging 80.7 ppg while giving up 69.7 in six contests so far, and for the season, the Huskies have outscored opponents by an average of more than 15 ppg (80.4-65.2) on their home floor.

Washington has covered in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 71-61 home win last February as a nine-point underdog. In fact, the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.

The Bruins are on ATS rolls of 36-16-1 on the road, 35-16-1 in roadies against teams with a winning home mark, 38-18 after a pointspread setback and 6-2 against winning teams. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five Saturday games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games after a non-cover, but they are on ATS declines of 1-7 at home against teams with a winning road record and 1-4 against teams with a win percentage above .600.

The under is on a 6-1 streak for both UCLA and Washington when they face winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four straight in Seattle. However, the over for the Huskies is on runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 10-1 in Pac-10 play, 10-2 on Saturday and 4-1 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Wisconsin (12-6, 7-9 ATS) at (25) Illinois (16-3, 11-4 ATS)

Wisconsin takes a three-game losing skid to Assembly Hall for a Big Ten battle with Illinois, which has lost five in a row in this rivalry.

The Badgers started Big Ten play with three straight wins (2-1 ATS), but have since dropped three consecutive league contests, including back-to-back overtime losses to Minnesota at home (78-74 as a 6½-point favorite) and Iowa on the road (73-69 as a 3½-point chalk). Prior to those two setbacks, Wisconsin had allowed more than 70 points just three times in its first 15 games.

Illinois improved to 4-2 (5-1 ATS) in conference action with Tuesday’s 67-49 rout of Ohio State, easily cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. The Illini have covered the spread in four straight games, including all three Big Ten home games. Over their last five contests, they’re averaging just 66 ppg (46.3 percent shooting) but allowing only 56.4 ppg (40.2 percent). Illinois has held 16 of 19 opponents to less than 65 points, with nine of the last 12 foes scoring less than 60.

Wisconsin has won five in a row against Illinois (4-1 ATS), including two straight victories in Assembly Hall. Last season, the Badgers posted three double-digit victories over the Illini, prevailing 70-60 but falling short as a 10½-point home favorite, 71-57 as a one-point road chalk and 61-48 as a seven-point favorite in the Big Ten tournament title game. The visitor has cashed in six straight regular-season meetings in this series, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five.

Although they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five games overall, the Badgers are on positive ATS runs of 12-5 on the road, 4-1 on Saturday and 8-2 after a non-cover. Illinois carries nothing but strong ATS streaks into this game, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 7-0 on Saturday, 8-3 after a victory and 6-1 against teams with a winning record.

The over is 6-2 in Wisconsin’s last eight games overall, but otherwise the under is on stretches of 16-5 for Wisconsin on Saturday, 6-2 for the Illini overall, 4-0 for the Illini at home, 5-2 for the Illini in Big Ten play, 8-0 for the Illini on Saturday and 36-16-1 for the Illini following an ATS win. Lastly, the under has hit in five of the last seven head-to-head meetings at Assembly Hall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

(3) UConn (17-1, 6-7 ATS) at (19) Notre Dame (12-5, 4-7 ATS)

Notre Dame continues a grueling run of games against Top 25 opponents when it returns to South Bend, Ind., in search of its 44th straight home win when it hosts streaking Connecticut, which has won six in a row.

The Fighting Irish are coming off back-to-back Big East road losses to No. 23 Louisville (83-73 in overtime as a 6½-point underdog) and No. 8 Syracuse (93-74 as a 3½-point underdog). Notre Dame is in the midst of a stretch where it is playing five straight games against ranked foes – all Big East teams – and seven of eight against Top 25 competition.

The Huskies ran their winning streak to six in a row with Wednesday’s 89-83 victory over Villanova, but they came up short as a 9½-point home favorite, their third consecutive non-cover, which follows a three-game ATS winning streak. UConn has won its first three Big East road games (2-1 ATS) by an average of 12.3 ppg.

UConn, which lost its league opener to Georgetown at home, is 6-1 in the Big East (3-4 ATS), while the Irish is now 3-3 in league play (2-4 ATS).

The host has won seven consecutive meetings in this series (5-2 ATS), and Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in South Bend. Last season, the Irish prevailed 73-67 at home, barely covering as a 5½-point chalk, but UConn got revenge with an 84-78 win as a 4½-point favorite. The last three games were decided by a total of 13 points and five of the last six had single-digit margins of victory.

Notre Dame puts up 80 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting (40.3 percent on three-pointers), while the Huskies net 79.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting (38 percent on three-pointers). Defensively, UConn surrenders just 62.6 ppg (38.7 percent) and the Irish yield 69.8 ppg (43 percent), but they’re allowing 79.8 ppg (47.7 percent) in Big East action.

The Huskies are in ATS funks of 3-5 overall (all in Big East play), 3-5 after a SU win and 1-4 after a non-cover, but they have cashed in seven of their last nine games on Saturday. Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its last five Saturday outings, but 4-1 ATS in its last five after an outright loss and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a non-cover.

The under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games overall, but the over is on runs of 4-1 for UConn on Saturday, 20-9 for Notre Dame overall, 22-7 for Notre Dame in Big East play and 22-10 for Notre Dame on Saturday. Also, three of the last four series meetings in South Bend have hurdled the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

(15) Xavier (16-2, 10-6 ATS) at LSU (15-3, 6-4 ATS)

Off to a perfect start in Atlantic 10 Conference play, Xavier takes a break from league action when it visits the Maravich Assembly Center in Baton Rouge for a clash with LSU.

Since suffering back-to-back blowout losses to Duke and Butler, Xavier has ripped off seven consecutive victories, going 6-0 ATS in lined action during this run. During the winning streak, the Musketeers have posted six double-digit routs, including five wins by 20 points or more. On Wednesday, they went to St. Bonaventure and rolled to an 84-64 win as an 11-point road chalk, improving to 5-0 SU and ATS in the Atlantic 10.

LSU is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, with double-digit routs of SEC foes South Carolina (85-68), Ole Miss (83-51) and Mississippi State (81-57). The Tigers have won seven of their last nine, with five of the last six victories coming by double digits. Also, since an ugly 91-61 loss at Utah, LSU has turned up the heat on defense, allowing only 60.3 ppg in its first four SEC contests.

These squads, who have not faced each other recently, are very similar statistically. The Musketeers average 73.3 ppg (46.4 percent shooting) and give up 62.1 ppg (37.3 percent), while LSU puts up 76.1 ppg (46.4 percent) and allows 61.1 ppg (39 percent).

The Tigers have won 17 consecutive home games, going 14-0 at the Maravich Center this season (5-1 ATS in lined action). Meanwhile, Xavier is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on the highway, including 5-0 SU and ATS in true road games. Going back to last season, the Musketeers have covered in six consecutive games on an opponent’s home court.

In addition to its ATS streaks of 6-0 overall and 6-0 on the road, Xavier is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 games against winning teams, but it has failed to cash in nine of its last 13 Saturday contests. LSU is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, but otherwise is on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 9-3 after an outright win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against winning teams.

For Xavier, the over is on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-0 in non-conference games and 5-2-1 versus the SEC. LSU has topped the total in four of its last five at home, but the under is 9-3 in its last 12 non-conference contests and 36-15 in its last 51 on Saturday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Texas A&M (15-4, 5-6 ATS) at (14) Texas (13-4, 7-7 ATS)

Texas returns to Austin after consecutive Big 12 road games when it entertains rival Texas A&M, which has lost three of its first four league contests.

The Longhorns have alternated wins and losses in their last four and are just 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in their last seven. However, they followed up an uninspired 78-63 loss at Oklahoma as a 4½-point road underdog with Saturday’s 71-49 rout of Texas Tech as a 6½-point road favorite, halting an 0-3 ATS slide. Texas has held six of its last seven opponents under 70 points, but it is averaging just 69.3 ppg during this stretch.

The Aggies went to Lawrence, Kan., on Monday and got steamrolled by the Jayhawks, losing 73-53 as a 10½-point road underdog. Texas A&M has followed up a 10-game non-conference winning streak by starting the Big 12 season 1-3 SU and ATS, but the one victory came at home against then-No. 21 Baylor, an 84-73 romp as a 1½-point pup.

This rivalry has belonged to the home team, which has won nine straight regular-season meetings, going 7-1-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the past four meetings. Last year, Texas A&M cruised to an 80-63 victory as a 3½-point home chalk, then went to Austin and got blasted 77-50 as a five-point underdog. The Aggies have lost five straight times in Austin, going 1-3-1 ATS, but they’re 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 series meetings overall.

The Longhorns have won 18 consecutive home games, including nine in a row hosting Big 12 foes. But they’re just 8-7 ATS during this stretch, including 5-4 ATS in league home games. Texas A&M is just 4-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site games, and they’ve lost four of their last five Big 12 roadies going back to last year’s visit to Texas, with all four defeats being by double digits.

Texas A&M is on ATS streaks of 7-3 on the road, 5-2 on Saturday, 7-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 after a loss and 25-12 when playing on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on Saturday, but otherwise are in pointspread funks of 1-4 at home, 2-6-1 in Big 12 play, 2-6 after a SU win and 2-7 after an ATS setback.

The over has been the play in four of the last five matchups in this rivalry. However, the under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven overall, 17-7 in its last 24 on the road, 8-2 in its last 10 conference games and 4-1 in Texas’ last five after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS

NBA

Cleveland (33-8, 28-13 ATS) at Utah (25-18, 22-21 ATS)

One night after a thrilling buzzer-beating victory at Golden State, the Cavaliers conclude a four-game Western Conference road swing when they pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for a clash with the Jazz.

LeBron James drained a 20-foot jump shot right as the buzzer sounded Friday night to lead Cleveland past the Warriors 106-105, though it came up short as a 6½-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 run (5-3 ATS), and last night’s result ended a string of 10 straight Cleveland contests where the SU winner had covered the spread.

Utah has been idle since Wednesday, when it went to Houston and lost 108-99 as a 5½-point road underdog. Jerry Sloan’s squad has alternated SU wins and losses in its last six games, but it is 1-5 ATS during this stretch, including three consecutive non-covers. The Jazz are 17-4 at Energy Solutions Arena, but just 12-9 ATS, including consecutive non-covers against the TWolves and Pacers in their last two at home.

The Jazz have scored 99 points or more in 11 of their last 12 games, including the last three in a row. However, they’ve allowed 107 points or more in three straight contests, five of their last six and seven of their last 10. Tonight, Utah runs up against an opponent that is giving up only 90 ppg overall and 91.9 ppg on the road. In fact, the Warriors on Friday became just the seventh team to crack triple digits against the Cavaliers this season.

Cleveland has been money in the bank against Utah in recent years, going 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS the last five years in Salt Lake City. Back on Nov. 15, the Cavaliers rolled to a 105-93 victory over Utah as a 10½-point home chalk, as the home team improved to 5-0 SU in the last five series meetings. The Jazz won the last two at EnergySolutions Arena by a total of three points.

The Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 38-16 overall, 11-3 against the Western Conference, 7-1 versus Northwest Division foes, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 when playing back-to-back nights and 14-6 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, in addition to their 1-5 ATS slump overall, the Jazz have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 against the Central Division. However, despite their mediocre pointspread record at home this year, Utah is 51-25-2 ATS in its last 78 at Energy Solutions Arena dating back to 2006.

For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 8-3 against the Western Conference, 4-1 against the Northwest Division and 5-2 when playing on back-to-back nights. Otherwise, though, the over is on streaks of 6-2 for Cleveland on Saturday, 10-2 for Utah overall, 5-1 for Utah at home, 5-2 in this rivalry overall and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER

BRENT CROW
UCONN AT NOTRE DAME (1/24)
Recommendation: Notre Dame

After suffering back-to-back road losses, Notre Dame will get a much needed week of rest before hosting the UConn Huskies this Saturday. Notre Dame has thrived at home, winning 20 straight Big East games and 45 straight overall. They have already knocked off Georgetown at home this year and will certainly be focused on this game after losing their last two. In addition, UConn center Hakeem Thabeet recently dissed Notre Dame’s star Luke Harangody in a magazine article stating the Irish big man was not as tough as advertised.You can bet Harangody is aware of the statement. UConn has won five in a row since losing to Georgetown to open conference play, but the grouping of teams was far from intimidating with a combined league record of 5-14. We also get a boost with the Huskies hosting Villanova on Wednesday night while the Irish are resting. Notre Dame should be a small favorite in this one and thus will fall into a system that is profitable year after year; being favored over a higher ranked team. I expect the Irish to continue their home winning streak and jump back into the Big East race with a solid win over UConn

ED CASH
KENTUCKY AT ALABAMA (1/24)
Recommendation: Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats right now looks like the best team in the SEC. That statement may not say much considering the league as a whole is down but from watching this team, they are one of the few teams in the SEC that have showcased balance on both ends of the court. The Wildcats play tough defense and seem to have solved their turnover problems as well. Kentucky has proven it can play on the road as well with wins over Tennessee and Georgia and should remain unbeaten in SEC play this week with a home game against Auburn. On the other hand, Alabama is in a free fall after losing point guard Ronald Steele to a heel injury. His absence was felt in losses to Mississippi State and Auburn as the Tide recorded 14 assists on 54 field goals and had 33 turnovers. Alabama has dropped three of its last four after winning nine of 10. None of those nine wins outside of slipping past LSU were overly impressive and all of which had Steele on the floor. Kentucky shouldn’t be too much of a favorite here unless Bama loses at home to Ole Miss this week. Take the Wildcats to cruise.

DONNIE BLACK
AUBURN AT ARKANSAS (1/24)
Recommendation: Arkansas

After two improbable home wins against Texas and Oklahoma, Arkansas’ SEC season got off to a rough start at 0-3. It shouldn’t have come as a shock when you analyze this team – lots of talent, short on experience. What we like about the Hogs is their passion for the glass (+6.4 rebounding margin) and ability to get to the free throw line (27.5 attempts per game). Those two attributes will in the long run offset the schizophrenic nature of their offense. At 12-4 and with two marquee non-conference wins, the season is far from over and with a week to prepare, we expect them to be focused when Auburn comes to town. Auburn has quietly exceeded expectations this season after some strong non-conference showings and a home win over Alabama last week. The Tigers have found a way to do it on the defensive end after serving as the SEC’s worst stop-unit a year ago. One aspect however that concerns us about Auburn is its free throw shooting (31-of-56, 55% in SEC play, 59% on the season). And with a competitively lined game like we expect here, it could play a factor. Overall, with Arkansas having a week to digest an 0-3 league start and Auburn off a mid-week game against Kentucky, we’ll side with the home team in the moderate price range.

FAIRWAY JAY
UCLA AT WASHINGTON (1/24)
Recommendation: Washington

UCLA suffered its first conference loss last weekend as Arizona State knocked off the defending league champs in overtime at Pauley Pavilion. The defeat created some balance at the top of the Pac-10, as UCLA,Washington and Cal are all 4-1 entering the week with Arizona State now at 4-2. There is typically a lot to like about the Bruins under coach Ben Howland, as his talented teams play tough defense, minimize easy transition baskets and interior penetration and are fundamentally sound in blocking out and rebounding the basketball. But this year’s Bruins team is a little undersized on the interior and allowing over 45% shooting. Following a slow down game Thursday at Washington State, the Bruins will be in for a real battle against Washington on Saturday. Most bettors and fans would be surprised to know that Washington is the Pac-10’s top defensive field goal and rebounding team. The Huskies are dominating teams on the boards with senior John Brockman leading the Pac-10 in rebounding while the team leads the league in scoring at over 81 ppg. Washington beat UCLA at home last year as a big underdog and I feel the improved Huskies can challenge for a league title and beat the Bruins again in a close lined game.

MARTY OTTO
HOFSTRA AT JAMES MADISON (1/24)
Recommendation: James Madison

We caught a bit of a bad break with James Madison last week as starting PG and leading assist man Devon Moore was forced to miss with symptoms of a concussion sustained in practice. It’s tough to go into George Mason’s gym and compete when short handed. But the Dukes will adapt whether or not Moore comes back in time for their tilt with Hofstra. As mentioned last week, the Dukes’ defense has spurred a run of success, covering eight of their last 10. They own the best three-point defense in the Colonial and have held opponents to less than 40% shooting in seven conference games. They’ll certainly have an edge over a Hofstra team that ranks 330th in FG% offense, shooting an abysmal 37% from the floor. Hofstra had lost six of nine in part because of their offensive struggles but scored a small upset over Northeastern last weekend. The Pride should pick up a mid-week win over William & Mary which should serve us in keeping this line in a reasonable range on Saturday. Look for Juwann James to take control of this game early and for the Dukes to score a nice home win.

HELMUT SPORTS
RUTGERS AT ST. JOHN’S (1/24)
Recommendation: St. John’s

Not many times do you lose when going on a 19-0 run in the first half, hold your opponent scoreless for 8:25 and without a field goal for 9:25. But not only did Rutgers lose last weekend doing just that, they were beat convincingly at Cincinnati. A discouraging trend for the Knights has been the lack of team defense, which has been a factor in all five league defeats as conference opponents have shot 50.2% from the field. For the Knight’s to have success this season it is going to have to come from guard Mike Rosario, however he hasn’t come along as planned. The freshman has a lot of talent but is just not quite up to speed in the Big East at this point in his career. Injuries have plagued the Red Storm all year, which is unfortunate because St. John’s has looked a lot better when it’s been healthy. It knocked off Notre Dame even without Malik Boothe and for the first time in several years, the Red Storm players can create matchup problems on the offensive end. D.J. Kennedy in particular has found his stride and has become an offensive threat. Boothe had an injured thumb but is very close to returning to the starting lineup and could be ready by Saturday. The Red Storm has had some recent success against the Knights, winning the last two meetings and I look for them to make it three in a row this weekend.

TEDDY COVERS
NEW JERSEY AT MEMPHIS (1/24)
Recommendation: New Jersey

This isn’t the first time I’ve recommended a play on New Jersey here in the Sportsmemo Newsletter, and it probably won’t be the last. Then again, as my dad always used to tell me growing up, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Nets continue to be serious underachievers when playing at the Izod Center in New Jersey. Their 9-14 straight up home record is right in line with their 8-15 ATS mark. But if you’ve supported Lawrence Frank’s squad on the road this year, you’ve cashed 13 tickets in 18 tries. And when the Nets are either short road favorites or short road underdogs (as they are likely to be in this game) that 13-5 ATS record gets even better.
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 4.5 or less or a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have lost five straight and nine of their last ten. Like New Jersey, Memphis has virtually no home court edge whatsoever, losing by 10, 12, 11, 7 and 15 in its last five home games. This is not a confident team these days. Point guard Kyle Lowry: “We try to bounce back, but the balls keep bouncing the wrong way.” Take New Jersey.

ERIN RYNNING
NEW JERSEY AT MEMPHIS (1/24)
Recommendation: Memphis

The Nets are no question one of the streakiest teams in the NBA in part because they rely so heavily on two players. Without Devin Harris contributing night in and night out, the weight of the franchise is then shifted upon veteran Vince Carter, who is hardly capable of carrying a team to victory on a consistent basis at this point in his career. To make matters worse, both players were recently benched in a blowout loss to Boston as head coach Lawrence Frank was quoted as saying,“I was totally embarrassed by our performance. It starts with me and goes on to our main players. It was an embarrassing start to the game I decided to go in another direction.” Memphis could only wish to have such minor issues as the focus of trying to improve with a young roster has been a daunting task. But though small, I have seen some positive signs coming out of the Grizzlies’ camp, most notably the defensive play of power forward Marc Gasol. Both teams enter in off road contests on Friday with the Nets at San Antonio and Memphis in New York. After beating the Grizzlies by 11 at home without Harris two weeks ago, this is one road situation where New Jersey could come out flat. Take the home dog.

ANDREW LANGE
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT GEORGIA (1/24)
Recommendation: Under

In looking at Mississippi State’s last two SEC games, both went over the total but a closer look shows there was a flurry of scoring in the closing minutes. Against Alabama, 16 points were scored in the last minute of play. The same thing occurred against Vanderbilt, with a barrage of points over the last three minutes. Georgia’s numbers heading into this contest in terms of pace and game scores are going to be skewed. Over their last five games, including Wednesday’s contest against Kentucky, they played nothing but fast paced teams (Missouri, Georgia Tech, Tennessee and UK). The lone game they played a team that prefers a moderate tempo, Vanderbilt, the final score read 50-40 in favor of the Commodores. As an added bonus, Georgia has been just awful on offense this season and things don’t expect to get easier against Mississippi State. UGA is averaging 54 ppg in SEC play to go with a 35.5% mark from the floor. There are two scenarios we can expect to see in this contest. One, MSU does what a lot of teams have and holds Georgia to crumbs on the offensive end. Or two, if by chance we get a competitive game, we look for MSU to play it closer to the vest on the road after some recent home success and UGA to do the same knowing they have yet to win a game against decent competition on the strength of its offense.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on USC pk

(Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) Washington State is coming off an emotionally and physically draining game against UCLA when it had to claw its way back only to lose by two points. The Trojans are coming off a loss at Washington and I'll take them in this bounce back spot against a Cougars team expected to be flat. Washington State will still play solid defense as it always does, but at the end of the day it won't put enough points on the board as it averages just 59.1 ppg at home while the Trojans are putting up 70.3 on the road. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 ( WASHINGTON ST ) - a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less are 77-36 ATS since 1997. Take the Trojans!

Jeff Benton

I’m on a 19-10 run with free plays in College Hoops, and we’ll look to continue that streak Saturday as we play Maryland plus the points in early ACC action against Duke.

Quite simply, this is way too many points for the Blue Devils to be laying. After all, they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five games, going 0-3 ATS at Cameron Indoor Stadium during this slump. And on Tuesday, they needed a big second-half surge to overtake N.C. State, and although Duke won 73-56, the Wolfpack gave the Devils a lot more trouble than that score indicates.

Meanwhile, even though Maryland lost its first two ACC road games, it was competitive in both contests against teams – Florida State and Miami – that I believe will finish in the upper half of the conference standings. The Terps came up short 62-60 at Miami, then took the Seminoles to overtime last Saturday before falling 76-73. In both instances, Gary Williams’ squad cashed as an underdog. In fact, while the Blue Devils have failed to cover in three straight home games, the Terrapins are on a 4-1 ATS run on the highway.

Maryland has definitely held its own in this rivalry, too, going 4-5 SU and 5-3-1 ATS in the last nine meetings (all as an underdog) dating to the 2004 conference tournament.

Lastly, two key factors you always want to consider when backing big underdogs are: 1) Can the underdog make free throws, and 2) can the underdog play defense. The answers to those questions as they pertain to Maryland are “yes” and “yes.” The Terps shoot 79% from the foul line for the season, including 77% in the last five games, and they hold opponents to 63.6 ppg on 40.3% shooting overall and 68.6 ppg on 41.8% shooting in the last five.

In the end, I doubt Maryland will be able to spring the outright upset, but they’re more than capable of hanging within this inflated impost, especially with Duke going just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 ACC games and 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on Saturday. Take the points.

5♦ MARYLAND

Matt Rivers

For Saturday take the Jazz at home.

Lebron is as good as they come and the Cavs are in the midst of an amazing season but when push comes to shove I will gladly back the Jazz at home in this spot.

Utah is always phenomenal at home. They have been without their star in Carlos Boozer for awhile now and Andrei Kirilenko and Deron Williams have missed some time but the Jazz continue to dominate at home and should do so once again in this game.

The Cavs have yet to lose at home but have been somewhat vulnerable on the road. Both Delonte West and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are injured and after playing in Golden State last night and traveling today I can't help but go against Mike Brown's squad in this spot.

Cleveland is an unreal 32-8 but like I said are banged up and are playing fior a second straight night and a third game in the last four days. They are also all the way across the country, dealing with some altitude and finishing up this four game West Coast swing against an extremely competent team that is fresh after not playing since the loss in Houston on Tuesday.

In the end this price is cheap enough for me to be all about the Jazz as they protect their home court like they usually do!

Jake Timlin

Today's Selection

Dominant on its home floor, I say lay the small number as UNLV runs Utah out of the Thomas and Mack Center today. Given that the Running Rebels have won 7 of the last 8 series meetings, it’s not a big stretch to back them again tonight.

UNLV is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings, including a cover in last year's Conference Tournament. As for Utah, while the Utes have been solid at home this year they've struggled on the road, suffering four of their six losses overall.

UNLV is coming off a big high following its upset of BYU in Provo. Flat out, UNLV is tough to beat at home and the Rebels will be once again today against Utah and with that I say take a shot on UNLV minus a smaller than expected spread.

PICK: UNLV

Tony Weston

Today's Selection

Hey, of course we come through with another Comp Play winner. We bounced back from last night’s streak breaker, but continue the winning over the long run. We’re now 11-2 our last 13 Comp Plays.

We’re continuing our winning ways tonight as we’re taking the Milwaukee Bucks at home against the visiting Sacramento Kings.

I said a few nights ago that Sacramento is THE worst team in the NBA. With or without Reggie Theus, the Kings have proven this year that they are unequaled when it comes to talent. I blame Theus for a lot of that.

Consider that coming into tonight the Kings are 3-12 SU their last 15 games and are 5-10 ATS in that stretch and are currently on 3-game SU and ATS losing streak.

Sacramento comes into tonight’s game 7-19 ATS its last 26 games against the Eastern Conference and is 4-10 ATS its last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

Consider also that for the season the Kings are getting outscored, on average, 107.7-98.8 and are slightly worse on the road where they’ve been outscored, on average, 108.3-97.1.

Now the Kings battle a Bucks team that’s 11-5 ATS its last 16 home games and is 13-5-1 ATS its last 19 games against teams teams with a losing record. Milwaukee is also 6-2-1 ATS its last nine games against the Western Conference and is 9-2 ATS its last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record.

Consider also that Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS its last five games against the Kings, including a 129-122 victory over the Kings in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog Jan. 16.

The Bucks will continue their winning trends and the Kings will continue their losing trends. Take Milwaukee at home in this one tonight.

3♦ BUCKS

JIM FEIST

ORLANDO MAGIC / MIAMI HEAT
Take: ORLANDO MAGIC

Orlando comes off a tough showdown loss to Boston, beating the Magic 90-80 on Thursday night at a sold-out Amway Arena. Coach Stan Van Gundy admitted the Celtics played super-defense and forced the Magic into a one-on-one game, which is not their style. Fortunately, they face a team with a small frontcourt and one that prefers an uptempo pace. The Magic (33-9) rank No. 7 in the league in scoring and no one is better from 3-point range. Miami is still regrouping from it's season-long 7-game road trip, and they are off a 15-point loss to Boston. Orlando will be able to own the paint this game with Dwight Howard, plus they won't be in a good mood: "We got our butts beat and got outplayed," Van Gundy said. Play Orlando.

Cajun Sports

Northwestern vs. Michigan -6.5
PLAY: 2* Michigan -6.5

Crisler Arena will be the site of tonights Big 10 clash between the host Michigan Wolverines and the visiting Northwestern Wildcats.

Northwestern is 10-6 SU and 7-6 against the number overall on the year. They have struggled on the road posting a record of 2-4 both SU and ATS. Although they enter tonights game off a huge win at Michigan State, 70 to 63 as a 12 point road underdog.

Michigan is 13-6 SU and 7-6 against the number this season. They are a solid 10-2 SU at home and 5-2 ATS. The Wolverines average 73.7 points per game at home against teams that only allow an average of 64.4 points per game. Defensively Michigan is allowing 60.3 points per game on their home floor versus teams that average 66.8 points per game on the road.

The Wolverines enter tonights game off a road loss at Penn State, 73 to 58 as a two point road underdog. In fact Michigan has lost three in a row starting with a loss at Illinois losing 66 to 51 as a 7 point road underdog. Michigan has been much better on their home floor as we see they defeated Illinois ten days earlier on their home court 74 to 64 as a two point home favorite.

Michigan will not only be looking to get back to their winning ways at home they will also be seeking a little revenge for a home loss last season to these same Wildcats 62 to 60 as an 8 point home favorite. With Northwestern coming off a huge upset win and Michigan off a conference road loss we expect the Wolverines to be able to take advantage of a flat Wildcat team on Saturday night in Ann Arbor.

We know that Northwestern when coming in off a SU win and now face a conference opponent they are 0-7 ATS with a point range of 3 to 6.5 points. If they are on the road and installed as an underdog their record is 0-6 ATS. The Wildcats coming off a road game and now facing the Wolverines have gone 1-7-1 ATS and as an underdog they are 0-5 ATS.

A check of the data base we see that College Basketball teams off a SU win and going over in their last three games and now play on the road with a line range of 3 to 6.5 points have gone 14-27-1 ATS.

With strong fundamental, technical and situational support we will back the host here as the Wolverines roll over the Wildcats in Ann Arbor on Saturday evening.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Michigan 76 Northwestern 65

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Alabama

The Tide plays host to the Wildcats in this key SEC clash at Coleman Coliseum knowing they are 18-6 ATS as conference home dogs, including 5-0 ATS when taking more than 5 points. With Bama looking to avenge a pair of losses suffered the last two years in this series we'll stay at home with the Tide today.