Dave Cokin
Hofstra @ Jame Madison
Play: James Madison -7'
James Madison has been a big money maker for me this season and I'm on them again today. Hofstra is mired in a terrible team shooting slump while the Dukes are doing a solid job of putting the ball in the basket. JMU also owns a big edge at the foul line, which could be a major plus down the stretch in this contest. Look for James Madison to notch yet another win and cover at home.
Alex Smart
UNLV -4.5
UNLV in their last trip to the hardwood, walked into a venue at BYU that has always been difficult for visiting opponents. The Runnin Rebels were , however, not intimidated , and came out with a straight up win by a 76-70 count,snapping the Mormons Mountain West Conference home winning streak of 25 games. Now with a boat load full of confidence on their side, and riding the momentum of a current 15-4 record , the Rebels host a Utah Utes program with a 12-6 record on the season, that includes 3 road losses, at Utah State, San Diego State , Oklahoma.
The Utes have not notched a victory at UNLV since the 2004-05, season dropping five straight meetings, including regular-season and MWC Tournament play, and I am betting another win and cover by the host Rebels is on board again vs a Utes side that depends way to much on their leading scorer Luke Nevil to lead the way .
Final notes & Key Trends:Runnin' Rebels are 38-16-2 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 like the Utes.
Play on UNLV to win and cover
Scott Rickenbach
Play the ORLANDO MAGIC @ Miami
Note this write-up was written up earlier in the week but, especially with Marion hurting for Miami, and with the Magic coming off of a home loss to the Celtics, the situational value for Orlando here has been strengthened. Consider a play on the MAGIC in this match-up. We love looking for spots like this as we always tend to get more line value by focusing on road teams. The home teams get a lot of shading and were sure that Miami will in this match-up too. However, the issue for the Heat is that they're hosting the top road team in the NBA and, arguably, nobody is having a better season right now than this Orlando team. They're getting the job done both at home and on the road. Dwight Howard continues to be a monster down low while, on the perimeter, Jameer Nelson is having a fantastic season. Through games of Monday, January 19th, the Magic are 17-5 on the road and 7-1 in divisional games. Contrast this with a Miami team whom, while a respectable 12-6 on their home floor, is just 3-3 in divisional games! Overall, in Eastern Conference games Miami is just 11-8 while the Magic are a sparkling 15-4. The fact that this is a divisional match-up insures the proper focus for the Magic and they also have been one of the best teams in the league in terms of always retaining their focus even when on the road! Also, for Orlando, this will be their only game in a stretch of four days. For Miami, they will come into this game well-rested but they'll be off of a huge home game against the defending champion Boston Celtics. Even with rest, will the Heat have the proper focus after having given it their all in an attempt to knock off the Celtics. The groin injury of Shawn Marion is also an issue right now for Miami who will struggle to contain Howard down low for Orlando. Consider a small play on the MAGIC on Saturday!
Karl Garrett
Orlando -5' at MIAMI
Tonight in the NBA, expect Orlando to be is a pissed-off mood when they head to play Miami.
The Magic had hoped to show Boston that they are a force in the Eastern Conference on Thursday, but they went down rather quietly 80-90 on their home floor, snapping a 7-game winning streak.
G-Man likes the Magic to get back into the win column convincingly tonight, as they have dominated their in-state rival winning the last 10 series meetings against the Heat, while covering in 9 of the 10!
Miami has been off since Wednesday, but they do come into this one off losses in 2 of their last 3 both straight up, and against the spread. Miami is also just 7-12 against the spread at home, while Orlando is a rockin' 17-5 straight up on the road this year, and 16-5-1 against the spread on the road this season.
Go with the road chalk tonight.
4♦ ORLANDO
Drew Gordon
Cleveland +2 at UTAH
We all know the arguments against Cleveland in this one. Yes, they played last night at Golden State. Yes, they're just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 roadies. But before you go jumping on the Jazz's bandwagon, there's a couple things I want you to consider:
First and foremost, the Cavaliers have dominated this series, going 11-1 ATS over their last 12 meetings, including 9 straight covers (7-2 SU)! Say what you will about the "fatigue factor" or whatever you want, but covering 11 of the last 12 meetings is a tough trend to ignore, period.
Second, while Utah is clearly a better team in Salt Lake, having gone 17-4 SU there this season, they haven't exactly been great for their backers, going a good, but not great 12-9 ATS at home. Not only that, but they've failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games, and have hardly been effective on the defensive end, allowing 107 ppg over their last 5 games!
Herein lies the problem for Utah, as the Cavaliers are consistently strong on the defensive end, allowing 9 points fewer on the seasoin (90 to 99), and have played Utah extremely well in the past (11-1 ATS L12 meetings). The Jazz on the other hand, simply cannot be trusted to stop Lebron and company, who've averages 105 ppg over their last two road games (both wins) and should do just as good against a porous Utah defense tonight.
Bottom line, I can understand why some bettors would be inclined to fade King James in this spot, but rest-assured, the Cavs are a solid 6-2 ATS with no rest and they'll be more than capable of keeping up with a Jazz team they've owned for years. Sorry Jazz-backers, but you're not going to win many games playing piss-poor defense against one of the NBA's elite, plain and simple.
Take Cleveland plus the points over Utah in this NBA match up.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Connecticut at NOTRE DAME +1
Tempted to take the Huskies in this spot? I can understand why the average bettor would be enticed, but we know better! Despite the Irish's home winning streak, the line on this contest is a bit fishy, all but begging you to take the Huskies at what appears to be a bargain price. Not so fast, and here's why:
First, I've said it many times before: "If it looks to good to be true, it probably is." And the fact oddsmakers are giving the Irish their due eventhouth they've lost 2 straight, should tell you that they're expecting a bounce back here. No such thing as a "free lunch," and I for one am not taking the bait on this one.
Second, its no secret the Irish have one of the few bigmen who can get it done against an excellent Huskies frontline in Harangody, who dropped 32 points and 16 boards against them in their last meeting. Not only that, but the Irish have size in general, with Hillesand, Ayers, and Zeller. But in order to really understand this match up, you have to look back at their last meeting...
The Huskies won and covered 84-78 at home against this Notre Dame team last February, in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. With many of the same players on the court tonight, you might be inclined to side with the Huskies again, but do not underestimate this Irish team at home, where they shoot lights out (84 ppg on 47% shooting, incl. 42% from 3-point), and are at their best defensively... Just ask Georgetown how tough the Irish can be at home!
Finally, Connecitcut has burned their backers in 3 straight games, and tonight, they run smack into a Notre Dame team desperate to avoid their 3rd straight loss. Although their loss at Syracuse was ugly, you have to believe they'll be fired up to bounce back strong at home tonight. In the end, the Irish protect their house ferociously in this one, grabbing the cash along the way!
Take Notre Dame plus the points over Connecticut in this college hoops match up.
2♦ NOTRE DAME
Sports Gambling Hotline
USC at WASHINGTON STATE -1'
Bobcats in a laugher last night makes it an 8-4 comp play run the last 12 days!
Washington State has still been "hit-or-miss" when it comes to getting some consistency under their belts, but the same can be said for USC, as the Trojans swing over to Pullman after Thursday night's 5-point loss at Washington. The Men of Troy did cover as the 6-point pooch on Thursday, but the streak ends today.
Not so sure the Trojans are ready for another methodical, slow-down tempo game that Tony Bennett's team likes to weave, and a better USC edition did lose both series meetings last year in rather ugly fashion, 58-73 at home, and 50-74 in Palouse to the Cougs.
Yes, the Cougars are in a "down mode" this season, but they just had a 3-game winning streak snapped on Thursday at home in their near-upset of UCLA, 59-61 as the 5 1/2-point underdog.
With Wazzou sporting a 4-1 straight up mark, and a 3-2 spread mark in the 5 most recent battles with Southern Cal, we will look for State to handle matters at home against an SC team that is just 2-5 straight up away from LA.
Play on the Cougars.
4♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Utah at UNLV -4
College hoops winner for you today as we are in Sin City for a comp play on the Rebels as they host Utah in this Mountain West Conference game.
Utah hasn't won in Sin City since 2005 and the Utes aren't going to get the job done today. UNLV has won two in a row over the Utes and seven of the last eight. The Rebels are 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and they'll score a 15-point win today.
UNLV is back home after a huge victory in Provo, Utah on Wednesday, recovering from a 13-point halftime deficit and winning 76-70 as a 7 1/2-point underdog. They crushed Wyoming a week ago, winning 83-66 as a 14-point favorite and they are 10-2 in front of their home fans this season.
The Rebels scored a 70-63 win over Utah in Vegas last year and pushed as a seven-point favorite. Then the Rebels followed it up with a 61-55 win in the Mountain West Tournament, cashing as a 4 1/2-point chalk.
The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two and we are looking for the Rebels to deliver a big win in this one. Play UNLV in this one.
4♦ UNLV
JRTIPS
CAVS vs. JAZZ
The Cleveland Cavaliers face the the Utah Jazz that have quietly built a string of home victories despite a multitude of injuries.Utah (25-18) seeks its eighth straight win at EnergySolutions Arena tonight against the Cava (33-8) who are trying to end their four-game Western road trip with three consecutive victories. The Jazz, who have a 17-4 home mark might not have Andrei Kirilenko for tonight who left Utah's previous home game which was a 112-107 win Tuesday over Minnesota with a sore right ankle and sat out a 108-99 loss the next night at Houston. No one on Utah's roster has appeared in every game this season as Jazz players have already missed a combined 118 games this season because of injuries, illness or personal reasons. Boozer, the team's leading scorer and rebounder the past three seasons, hasn't played since Nov. 19 and is expected to miss at least two more weeks following his surgery. Despite the injuries, the Jazz's record has stayed on the winning side and their play at home and contributions from players like Paul Millsap starting in place of Boozer who has averaged 17.9 points and 11.3 rebounds in the last 24 games and has scored at least 20 points in the past two games with consecutive double-doubles. Cleveland is 20-0 at home but the road hasn't proved as kind to the Cavaliers of late. After getting a LeBron James buzzer-beater and a 106-105 win last night at Golden State, Cleveland has gone 3-4 in its last seven away from home but is 2-1 on its four-game. The Cavaliers, who have a 13-8 road record, have dropped two straight in Salt Lake City and are 3-14 there since 1991-92. Cleveland will end their 4-game road trip tonight and the last 2 games have shown that fatique has set in. It will be tough for them to compete with a Utah team that willl be fired up with Labron James in town after a hard fought game that needed a buzzer beater shot from James in order to win at Golden St. TAKE UTAH-2 1/2
Brett Maverick Sports
Nebraska -3.5
Last night we make it back to back on free winners again as Brown gets the cover at Yale. Today we have our Ms Valley Game of the Year winner. Our free selection today comes from Lincoln Nebraska where we find a powerful home team that has won 25 of the last 29 at home. Even better is the Huskers rank 3rd nationally in TO margin at +6 per game. OSU has no real post presence and look for Nebraska to slow the game down and play inside in the half court offense. Lay the small number here.
Golden Contender
NBA play for Saturday night
On Saturday night in the NBA look at game 502 at 7:05 eastern.The Philly 76ers.Philly comes into this one with 4 days rest.Going back through the database we see that philly is 6-0 su 5-1 ats as a home fav off a home game with 3+ rest winning by a 102-87 average.They have won and covered the last 5 times against Newyork with the last win last week at MSG.Looking at the Knicks they come in off there 3rd straight win crushing Memphis last night.Again looking through the database we see they are 0-4 su and ats when they visit Philly with no rest losing by an average score of 104-80.These games havent been close.The Knicks probably wont win here as they are 2-10 su revenging a home loss covering half the time at 6-6 ats.The only thing that keeps me off the game as a large play is that Philly could take Ny a little lightly here as they beat them by 10 just last week.The line has gone down to -7.5.Id play the sixers for a unit based on the aforementioned trends. Saturday night though will go with Philly minus the points for a unit
Matt Fargo
Wisc Milwaukee vs. Butler
Play: Butler -13
While it may not come as a big surprise that Butler is at the top of the Horizon Conference, it is a surprise that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is just a game and a half back. The Panthers were not expected to do much this season as they were returning only two starters and were in basic rebuilding mode once again. They lost to Valparaiso on Thursday, a team they had already beaten once this season, as it looks as though the main culprit was a lookahead to this contest. I don’t think the Panthers will be up for the challenge again. Rebuilding at Butler means reloading. The Bulldogs were picked to finish middle of the pack in the conference but after a big win over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Thursday, they have jumped out to an 8-0 start in the Horizon and 17-1 overall with that one setback being only a three-point loss at Ohio St. Butler only brought back one starter from last season which makes this start even more impressive. The Bulldogs are starting three true freshmen with two of those averaging over 13 ppg. This team isn’t deep but like any well coached team, it is doing the small things right to win. The Bulldogs have played a schedule ranked 34th in the nation so they haven’t been successful by playing a group of cupcakes. They have defeated Drake, Northwestern, Bradley, Xavier and UAB out of conference and those are definitely impressive wins. At 9-0 this season, Butler has won 13 straight home games and is 25-1 in its last 26 home games. Defense is once again the strength as the Bulldogs are allowing 38.5 percent shooting which is 23rd n the nation. This has resulted in opponents scoring only 56 ppg which is the third lowest average in the country. Taking nothing away from Wisconsin-Milwaukee, but it has not been tested very much this season and when it has, it has failed. The Panthers have lost to Iowa St., Marquette, Wisconsin and Miami Ohio out of the conference and none of those were close as the losses were by 18, 20, 21 and 24 points. You can also toss in a bad loss to a bad Ball St. team by 13 points and that was at home. Also, the 12-point loss on Thursday to a 6-14 Valparaiso team was not very good either. Overall, the Panthers have played a schedule ranked 153rd and they have been fortunate with the early season Horizon slate. Four of the Panthers six conference wins have come against Detroit, Valparaiso, Youngstown St. and Illinois-Chicago who are a combined 8-25 in conference action. As far as statistics go, the numbers are pretty similar between these two but with the schedule strength differential, it certainly favors Butler. Two important stats do favor the Bulldogs and those are assist/turnover ratio and offensive efficiency rating which are actually two of the most important ones. The Bulldogs have played that brutal schedule again yet it has not mattered as they are 10-2 ATS against teams with a winning record this season. And while this number may seem big against a conference rival no less, Butler has had few issues in the past, going 11-3 ATS as a favorite between 12 and 18.5 points over the last three years. Last and far from least, the Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS over the last two years after allowing 60 points or fewer in three consecutive games. The Panthers meanwhile are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 13 points or more. We catch some value on this line based on the Panthers 6-2 conference record and Butler should roll once again on its home floor. 3* Butler Bulldogs
Charlie Scott
Depaul vs. Marquette
Play: Under 146
Depaul Coach Jerry Wainwright has young players learning his half court offense. Depaul uses the shot clock and struggles to score on offense, but play hard and give a good effort on the defensive end. Marquette can play at a fast or slow pace and will play defense. If you look at these two teams previous scores from Depauls last 5 games and take Marquette's last 4 games Under 146 is 7-2. Play UNDER this linesmakers mistake !
Memphis U vs. Tennessee
Play: Under 151
Last season when these teams met, both teams had better players, yet defense paced the game as Tennessee won 66-62. Expect the same pace today ! The Tennessee defense has been bad this season, but expect Memphis to slow down and control the pace. Calipari isn't a good X-0 coach , but even he knows not to try and run with Tennessee. Memphis has had low scoring games on the road this season, Memphis last 4 road game scores have been 55-54, 73-66, 70-79 OT, and 58-63. GO UNDER !
Bob Harvey
Washington -1
It’s very likely UCLA got its first and only victory on this trip when they beat WSU by two on Thursday night. Today the Bruins take on Lorenzo Romars Huskies in the rowdy Hec Ed in Seattle. The Bruins can name about one hundred other places they’d like to be instead of this building where they’ve lost they’re last four games.
The Huskies are 5-1 in the Pac-10 and have won 12 of 13 overall. As is the case with every team, Washington gets jacked when they see that UCLA across the front of the jersey. This will be like a tournament game for the Huskies today. The mere mention of UCLA has a tendency to bring out the best in teams.
The Huskies are more than just Jon Brockman although he should have a field day today. Last year UCLA had Kevin Love to negate Brockman. Love is gone and no “Big Body” is available to the Bruins to use against the player coach Ben Howland refers (kindly) to as an “animal”.
The 13th ranked Bruins avoided a loss Thursday night but their luck runs out today. Washington will kill them on the boards and win by double-digits. This one looks like one of the easier games on today’s slate to cash in.
LT Profits
The Citadel +6
Very quietly, the Citadel Bulldogs have gone 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games, and we look for this improving club to give the Charleston Cougars a battle as home underdogs today.
In fact, it looks like the Bulldogs have managed to work in some basketball practice between their Bible studies, as Citadel is actually a respectable 9-10 straight up this season, nearly matching their entire win total for the last two full seasons combined (4-24, 6-23).
The Bulldogs are now 9-3-1 ATS for the whole season, including 7-1 ATS inside the Southern Conference. Moreover, their lone ATS conference loss was a six-point defeat vs. Chattanooga, a margin that would not lose ATS here.
Sure, Charleston is the cream of the crop of the Southern Conference, and they are 15-3 straight up this season. However, this is not a secret among bookmakers and has resulted in some inflated spreads. As a result, the Cougars come into this game on a four-game ATS losing streak despite the fact that they won all of those games on the court.
Do not be surprised if we see an instant replay today, with Charleston winning a tight battle but Citadel covering this nice number at home.
Pick: Citadel +6
Tom Stryker
BYU (-) over San Diego State
Off back-to-back conference losses to New Mexico and UNLV, BYU will be all business when San Diego State visits on Saturday night.
In case you haven't been paying attention, the Blue and White have been outstanding at home in the Marriott Center posting a solid 56-2 SU and 26-17-2 ATS record including a profitable 32-2 SU and 20-10-2 ATS mark in this role matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win. Equally impressive, off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, the Stormin' Mormons have been a reliable investment posting a strong 17-8 ATS record.
On the visitor's side of the court, San Diego State has been at its worst on foreign soil when battling an opponent that enters off back-to-back straight up losses notching a dismal 14-27-2 ATS record. In this role coming off a straight up win, the Aztecs dip to a dismal 4-17 ATS!
With a war at Utah on deck and still stinging from losses to the Lobos and Rebels, the Cougars know they can't afford to slip in this contest. Take BYU.