Sports Gambling Hotline
Oklahoma State at TEXAS A&M -2'
Have to look at the in-season revenge angle today in the Big 12, as Texas A&M looks to repay a 72-61 loss at Stillwater 3 weeks ago today at home.
Not only did A&M lose this season's first meeting, but Oklahoma State handed the Aggies a 59-54 loss at College Station last February. It is rare when the Aggies lose on their home hardwood, and we expect them to remember well those last 2 series meetings, and pay them back in full today.
Oklahoma State comes into this one off their Monday home loss to Oklahoma, while Texas A&M snapped a 3-game slide with the home win and cover over Texas Tech to improve to 16-5 for the year.
The Aggies win over Texas Tech came after losses to Big 12 heavyweights Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. We expect Mark Turgeon's team to continue to get healthy against the middle of the Big 12-pack Cowboys today on their home hardwood, as they avenge a pair of series losses with the win, and cover today.
Play on Texas A&M.
TIM TRUSHEL
OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS A&M
Recommendation: Texas A&M
It could be argued that the Aggies have faced the most difficult conference schedule of any Big XII team. At 1-4 the results have been disappointing but perhaps not unexpected. They have played two home games, splitting with a win over Baylor and a hard fought six-point loss to Oklahoma. One the road they are 0-3 with losses at Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma State. In essence their conference schedule has featured five of the six top teams in the conference. This week, with some home cooking, they should get a chance to post a couple of wins. Mid-week they host Texas Tech and with a projected win they should come in confident. As an added bonus, based on the numbers, we expect A&M to be installed as a slight home underdog. Oklahoma State will enter this game off a contest against their rival Oklahoma. Off either a win or a loss, we would expect the focus to be less than 100% on the road against an opponent they have already beaten. On the other side of the equation, there will be plenty of motivation as Josh Carter, the Aggies’ leading scorer, was held scoreless in the first meeting. The Aggies will improve upon the 4-of-17 from three point range and with all else being equal, they should have more than enough to earn the win.
ED CASH
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA STATE
Recommendation: Arizona State
Lorenzo Romar’s Washington Huskies begin the week atop the league standings at 6-1; one game up on Arizona State, Cal and UCLA. But while the Huskies currently serve as the team to beat in the PAC-10 after sweeping both LA schools, a win against Arizona on Thursday will provide us with a tremendous play on the home team, Arizona State. Washington has done most of its damage at home this season,with road wins coming against Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State -- all of which have losing league records. Arizona State has achieved its 5-2 conference mark largely on the road. They have played just two home games against the Oregon schools, both easy wins, while going 3-2 on the road against Cal, Stanford, Arizona, USC and UCLA. I expect the Sun Devils to be able to handle Washington with ease, especially if the Huskies beat a slumping Arizona team on Thursday. Even with a loss, Arizona State should be a solid play as they are the better team and have a tremendous home court edge.
MARTY OTTO
NEW MEXICO AT UTAH
Recommendation: Utah
Home teams have ruled the roost in the Mountain West Conference, routinely winning SU and covering spreads. The Utah Utes have been doing it in impressive fashion at home going 6-1 SU thus far while winning by an average margin of 16 ppg. They beat a very good Gonzaga club as an underdog and blew out LSU by 30. The Utes will be in a position to potentially sit atop the conference standings if they knock off both BYU and New Mexico this week. The fundamental edges start on the front line where New Mexico simply doesn’t have an answer for 7-2 center Luke Nevill. Nevill is second in scoring and first in rebounding in the MWC. He provides the Utes with a player teams like New Mexico just can’t match up against. He is aided on the glass by Shaun Green and Carlon Brown who both rank in the top 10 in the MWC in rebounding. Look for Utah to control the glass (+9.5 rebound margin, 1st MWC), a real key in what figures to be an intense defensive contest. With the lead we can then watch Utah salt away the victory with the league’s top free throw percentage, helping secure what should be a nice win and cover.
HELMUT SPORTS
NEBRASKA AT TEXAS TECH
Recommendation: Under
The Red Raiders are still playing very up-tempo this season ranking No. 13 in the nation in pace/tempo. The Huskers are the slowest paced team in the Big XII and have a knack for slowing down these fast paced teams, as games against up-tempo conference opponents, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Missouri, all played under 135 total possessions. The Huskers have been very good on defense this season holding opponents to 41.5% from the field and an average of 57.8 ppg. They have an excellent defensive efficiency (90.0, 19th in nation) not only due to the FG% defense but because they are quite good at causing turnovers nearly 18 per game. The Red Raiders have been playing poorly on offense. In their last eight games they have shot 42.3% from the field, averaged 67.6 ppg and turned it over nearly 18 times per game. The Huskers’ offense has taken a dip since the beginning of conference play as they have only shot 40.4% from the field and have also played poorly on the road, shooting just 37.8% in five games. Although the Red Raiders’ defense is not great the Huskers have shown no ability to score on the road and have not done well on offense since the end of the non-conference schedule.
DONNIE BLACK
UAB AT MARSHALL
Recommendation: Marshall
Despite a slew of suspensions, ineligible players and a depleted bench, UAB has managed to persevere while currently residing in the upper-half of the C-USA standings at 3-2. But while the remaining roster has been able to keep the ship afloat, the Blazers could be in for a wake-up call starting Wednesday. After playing three straight at home, UAB travels to a tough Tulsa venue before making the trek to Huntington on Saturday to face Marshall. The Thundering Herd are your typical mediocre C-USA unit who struggle on the road but hold enough of a home court advantage to be considered playable. On the season, Marshall is 8-1 at home with a lone loss to 14-5 East Tennessee State. A concern with Marshall is lack of size with its tallest contributing player checking in at 6-8. However, UAB isn’t overwhelming in the front court and has actually been outrebounded on the season which should help our cause. In looking at the last two years of the series, Marshall lost at UAB by 13 and 19 but emerged victorious at home – both times as a small underdog. We expect the Herd to be catching points once again this weekend as UAB and its thin roster play the second of back-to-back road games
BRENT CROW
GEORGETOWN AT MARQUETTE
Recommendation: Marquette
The Hoyas have dropped three in a row entering this week’s games at Cincinnati and Marquette. They are just 2-5 SU since beating UConn to open Big East play and the general feeling is that this is who the Hoyas are rather than a team going through a mid-season funk. Georgetown struggles from the outside and has not executed the Princeton offense as well as years past. The Hoyas also lack depth, with center Greg Monroe receiving little help from a bench that has just one player averaging more than 5 ppg. Teams seem to be figuring out how to defend the Hoyas as well, with minimal efforts of 58 against West Virginia and 60 at Seton Hall in their last two losses. They will definitely have to score plenty to keep pace with Marquette and its outstanding three-guard attack. The Eagles average 81.5 ppg and are unbeaten on their home court this season.Guards Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal are both having tremendous seasons, averaging 19.2 and 18.9 ppg, respectively. Lazar Hayward has also emerged this season, notching 16.5 ppg and 8.8 rpg to give Marquette another solid weapon. Look for them to hand the Hoyas another loss on Saturday.
ROB VENO
NEW ORLEANS AT SAN ANTONIO
Recommendation: Under
Head coach Gregg Popovich’s recent outburst on the lack of defense being played by his Spurs is becoming a sentiment echoed by his players. Sixth-man Manu Ginoboli expressed similar concerns after a 14-point loss to the Lakers. With the entire Spurs team expected to be on the same page and determined to improve their defense, the erratic offense of New Orleans will likely have trouble posting a substantial point total. The Hornets’ 96.3 ppg ranks 24th in the league and they’ll be challenged by the focused Spurs’ defense for the full 48 minutes. However, the New Orleans defense has been a constant all season long as they’ve thoroughly committed themselves on that end of the floor, ranking third in the league while allowing just 93.1 ppg. The defensive intensityand methodical offensive possessions figure to be at a playoff-type peak here between these divisional rivals who sit first and second in the Southwest, separated by just 1.5 games. The last meeting back on December 17 saw just 173 points scored and I look for more of the same here in the rematch where the total should open in the 188-189 range.
POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
WESTERN MICHIGAN over Kent St (Sat) RATING: 1
LSU over Arkansas (Sat) RATING: 1
AUBURN over Vanderbilt (Sat) RATING: 4
ST BONAVENTURE over Duquesne (Sat) RATING: 5
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Baylor +6.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I'll take Baylor and the points as I have this one going right down to the wire. After tough losses to Oklahoma and Texas , Baylor will be ready to bounce back Saturday. Baylor is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 in this series and 11-1 ATS in the last 12. The road has been kind to Baylor the past two season as the Bears are 13-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The key here is Baylor's ability to knock down the three as nothing has hurt the Tigers worse. Mizzou is 6-18 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1997. Take the points.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Phoenix Suns
When Phoenix plays host to Chicago in this non-conference clash in the desert Saturday night it will be with revenge from a loss 17-point loss suffered as 4.5-point favorites at Chicago earlier this season. With the Bulls off 19-point (last night) and 20-point wins in their last two games and the Suns off a 10-point home loss, look for Phoenix to get back on the win track at Chicago's expense here tonight.
Great Lakes Sports
Michigan at Purdue
Play: Purdue
The Purdue Boilermakers are a very solid 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points the last three years, and they are a very nive 29-14 ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. The Purdue Boilermakers is also a very strong 31-11 ATS when playing after a conference game, and they are a very solid 20-8 ATS off of a win vs a conference rival the last three years. We look for the Purdue Boilermakers to grab the home ATS win & cover today.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
Damn, again we fail to deliver in this spot. That absolutely sucks and it is absolutely over.
We’re turning things around and getting back on the winning track today as we’re headed to the college hardwood where we’re taking Davidson on the road at Samford.
Right now Davidson might be the best mid-major in the country sitting at 17-3 SU this year with the only losses coming on the road by four points at Oklahoma, a Top 5 team team, on the road at Purdue, a Top 20 team, and on the road at the No. 1 team in the nation in Duke.
Since that loss at Duke, the Wildcats have gone 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, beating their opponents by an average of 22 points per game. Davidson comes into tonight having covered in four straight games and will make it five in a row at Samford.
While Samford has been impressive lately, going 8-2 ATS last 10 games and going 6-1 ATS its last seven games and 5-1 SU its last seven, consider that the last time the Bulldogs played Davidson they got destroyed, losing 76-55, but covered as a 25 1/2 point underdog.
Today, the Bulldogs are only catching about 15 points, depending on where you play this. And since that game the Wildcats have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS.
Davidson will lay another beat down on Samford and avenge that non-cover. Take Davidson on the road easily in this one.
3♦ DAVIDSON
Bobby Maxwell
Stanford at UCLA -10
UCLA got a much needed dominating offensive performance on Thursday and the Bruins already have a stranglehold on Stanford, so we'll back the home team to deliver another clutch performance today.
The Bruins stomped Cal 81-66 on Thursday as a 10-point favorite and honestly the game was never close in the final 20 minutes. UCLA jumped on top of the Bears and never let up, constantly getting to the rim and free-throw line. The win and cover stopped an 0-3 ATS slide and they delivered another strong defensive effort and have now allowed 66 points or less in 16 of their last 20 games, including five of the last six.
Stanford has dropped two in a row and five of its last six, including Thursday's 70-69 loss at USC. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven but overall they are just 3-5 in Pac-10 action while UCLA is tied atop the conference at 6-2.
The Bruins have won six of seven over Stanford (5-2 ATS) and they have won four straight, including three straight wins over the Cardinal last season when Stanford still had the Lopez twins in the middle. UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against winning teams and they'll get another one today. Lay the chalk and watch the Bruins get a 15-point win in this one.
2♦ UCLA
Bobby Maxwell
West Virginia at LOUISVILLE -6'
We have given you a winner for seven straight days now and if you haven't been cashing in, that's on you. Here comes the eighth in a row as we go with Louisville at home against West Virginia.
No way we go against Louisville right now as the Cardinals are as hot as anybody in the country. We're laying the chalk and playing Louisville in this one.
The Cardinals haven't lost since a humiliating loss to UNLV in late December, winners of eight straight and currently sitting atop the Big East with a 7-0 SU and ATS record. They crushed South Florida 80-54 on Wednesday and got the cash as 16 1/2-point favorites.
Louisville has won four of its last five by double digits and they've averaged 76.2 points per game while giving up just 61.2.
West Virginia played the same South Florida team and narrowly got a 62-59 win. The Mountaineers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover. On the opposite side, Louisville is 20-8 ATS after a spread-cover, 9-3 ATS on Saturdays and 38-14-2 in Big East action.
This game is all Louisville. Play the Cardinals on their home court and watch as they get another easy victory.
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Jrtips
LA LAKERS vs. MEMPHIS
The Los Angeles Lakers opened a six-game road trip with a victory in their highest-scoring contest this season and will face the Memphis Grizzlies(11-34) who have lost 12 games in a row. last night, Los Angeles (36-9) shot 50.5 percent in a 132-119 victory at Minnesota for its fifth win in six games after losing two in a row for just the second time this season. Averaging 108.2 points this season, the Lakers face Memphis where they are averaging 114.3 in their last three road contests. Kobe Bryant had 36 in Los Angeles' 105-96 victory there on Dec. 22 and is averaging 34.4 points in his last 11 games versus Memphis. All-Star Gasol could be in for a big night in his second trip to Memphis since the Grizzlies traded him to Los Angeles last season.Facing his younger brother, Marc, Pau Gasol had 15 points on 6-of-10 shooting against the Grizzlies in December. The Lakers wil have no problem running way with this one as they have too much firepower on offense for the Grizzlies to have a chance to keep this one close. TAKE LA LAKERS-11 1/2
Charlie Scott
Michigan vs. Purdue
Play: Michigan +12.5
Take a shot here with Michigan Head Coach John Beilein and his style of play getting double digits. Purdue is off a tough physical one point win vs Wisconsin and Purdue as a team has a cluster of injuries. Michigan has talent, now knows Beilein's system and will keep it close !
Alex Smart
Georgia Tech +8
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-1,4-1) are in big time let down situation this Saturday afternoon, after taking out No.1 Duke in their last trip to the hardwood.
Meanwhile, Georgia Tech (9-10, 0-6) their opponents are winless in ACC play and in a hyped up desperation mode. A win here would be huge , for the Yellow Jackets. and would give them some much needed momentum going forward . Needless to say this young group, could well be prepared to play their best game of the season in this spot.
I know these two teams are currently operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, but considering the above mentioned circumstances taking the points with the home team is not a bad bet, and rather the contrary.
The ramblinreck have held late late leads vs Virginia,Maryland, Boston College , and NC State, but fell apart , and buckled under pressure ,losing three of those games in over time. This Saturday I expect Techs 3 guard set, to give the Deacons all they can handle, and for the nations. No.6 ranked team to have a hard time breaking the programs current 4 game road losing streak here at Alexander Memorial Coliseum.
Final notes & Key Trends: GTech has seen 10 games this season decided by 7 points or less , and last season they had 21 of 32 games decided by 10 points or less, which signifies a team that competes, and does not give up. Last year Gtechs 5 home losses came by a total of 8 points.Tech's three home ACC contests this season , saw two go to overtime and were decided by four points each.
Play on Georgia Tech to cover
Ben Burns
Toledo at Buffalo
Prediction: Buffalo
Toledo has mostly had its way with Buffalo in recent seasons. Things are different this year though. The Bulls made huge strides on the gridiron this season and the basketball team is also much improved. Indeed, the Bulls have been the best team in the MAC so far, going 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in conference play. That's their best start in MAC play since joining the conference in 1998. On the other hand, Toledo is just 2-4SU/ATS in conference action.Overall, Buffalo is 11-6 ATS in 17 lined games, including 5-2 ATS when laying points.Conversely, Toledo is an ugly 3-12 ATS when listed as an underdog. The Rockets are also anawful 1-7 ATS (0-8 SU) in road lined games. In fact, the Rockets have won 22 of their last 24 conference home games but have won just one of their last 24 road games. The Bulls should have a significant advantage on the boards, as rebounding has been a strength for them and it's also been a weakness for the young Toledo frountcourt. Looking to avenge an embarrassing loss here last season and with a chance to show the ESPN(2) audience what they're all about, the Bulls should be able to cruise to a convincing win. Consider laying the points.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Purdue -12
Michigan is 3-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 55.3 to 68.7. Michigan has been crushed on the road by 15 or more in all 3 of its road games and now it faces its toughest road test of the year. Michigan's only chance is to shoot lights out from three and even that doesn't look good as Purdue is 7-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 72.1 to 58.4. Lay the number.
LT Profits
West Virginia +6.5
The Louisville Cardinals and the West Virginia Mountaineers are both ranked in the Top 10 in the Pomeroy Ratings, so we look for a tight slugfest here that goes right down to the wire, giving the Mountaineers value with this line.
Now Louisville is certainly on fire, having won eight straight games including going a perfect 7-0 in Big East play. Keep in mind though that they were in tight battles with the three highest rated Pomeroy teams they have beaten during the stretch, beating Pittsburgh (3) by six, Villanova (20) by one and Kentucky (23) by three.
None of those margins would have been good enough to cover this number, and we look for an equally tight battle here vs. a West Virginia team that is ranked eighth by Pomeroy. After all, the Mountaineers are ranked sixth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, a category that Louisville leads the nation in.
That takes away a huge advantage that the Cardinals usually have on their opponents, and remember also that West Virginia already owns a statement road Big East win, going into Georgetown and trouncing the Hoyas by 17.
Look for a tight battle here at the very least, with an upset not beyond the realm of possibility.
Pick: West Virginia +6.5