Nelly
Oregon State at Oregon
Oregon State had a huge surprise win over Stanford last weekend but a non-conference game during the week gave the Beavers the wake-up call they needed, squeaking out a six-point win against Cal-State Bakersfield at home. There was clearly going to be a flat spot after back-to-back Pac-10 wins coming off the winless conference season last year but focus should be back in order for this rivalry game. Oregon has simply not been competitive this season. The Ducks are 6-14 and winless in the Pac-10 while going 6-13 ATS. Oregon has only won once on the road this season and this will be a critical game for Oregon State to legitimize its path back to respectability after greatly struggling in this series in recent years. Defensively the Beavers allow 13 fewer points per game and Oregon State should be able to slow down the Ducks offense while capitalizing on many Oregon mistakes. Lay the points with the Beavers to keep the win streak going.
Tom Freese
Utah St at Fresno St
Utah st is 9-1 ATS their last 10 road games and they are 6-0-1 ATS their last 7 Saturday games. The Aggies are 15-7-1 ATS their last 23 games overall and they are 7-2 ATS vs. losing teams. Fresno St are 8-23-1 ATS their last 32 home games and they are 4-12 ATS their last 16 Conference games. The Bulldogs are 3-14-1 ATS off a straight up win and they are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 Saturday games. PLAY ON UTAH ST -
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Clippers +5.5
This is a lot of points for a team to be catching that has more wins than its opponent. The Clippers are getting healthier and will be ready to compete against a team of its caliber tonight. Washington is 6-22 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons and 4-13 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season. Plays against home favorites after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 25-6 ATS the 5 seasons. Both of these teams need a win in the worst way and they'll battle to the death tonight so I'm taking the points in a close contest.
Pregame.com total of the day
Notre Dame: One might argue it couldn't get much worse for the Fighting Irish, who have lost four straight games and haven't dropped five in a row in nearly three years. But they have yet another tough test here at Pitt, the team's fourth straight opponent ranked in the Top 10. “One thing you can’t lose sight of is we’ve taken four punches from really good teams,” Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey said. “But you have chances for big wins still on the schedule, and you don’t need to get them all. You need to get a couple. But on days like this it looks like you could never get any.”
PROJECTED SCORE: 76 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
The OVER is 19-7 in Notre Dame's last 26 games as an underdog.
Pitt (-11.5, O/U 146.5): The Panthers have suffered their only two losses of the season with DeJuan Blair suffering from foul trouble and realize he must stay on the court in order for the team to maximize their potential. Blair managed to play 31 minutes in big wins over Syracuse and West Virginia but was on the court for only half the game in losses to Villanova and Louisville. “We missed DeJuan a lot, just his presence helps,” Pitt point guard Levance Fields said. “Obviously the two losses have been with him in foul trouble. We’ve got to do a better job of playing without him.”
PROJECTED SCORE: 86 Pitt
The OVER is 11-4 in Pitt's last 15 home games.
WUNDERDOG
Toledo at Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -14.5
The Bulls gave some insight as to what type of talent they have when they took UConn to the wire at home earlier this season. They are 10-2 since that game and have now logged wins in their last five straight. Toledo has been a mess on the road where they have yet to break through and come in here with an 0-10 mark on the season, playing on the road. They have failed to score more than 53 points in any conference road game and have been beaten by double-digits in all of them, by an average of 18.3 points per game. Buffalo will be the best they have faced in conference on the road, and a Bulls’ blowout is in order here. Buffalo big in this one!
Jack Jones
Take Washington Wizards -4.5 over L.A. Clippers
With two of the worst teams in the NBA meeting on Saturday, I'm taking the Wizards at home. The Clippers are 5-16 on the road this year and have lost 4 in a row against the spread. Washington doesn't win very often this year, but this is a situation in which they should get the job done.
Take Arizona -4.5 over Washington State
The Arizona Wildcats are having a great season on their home court at 11-2 this year, and they've won 8 of their last 10 home games against the spread. Meanwhile, Washington State is just 2-6 against the spread against teams with a winning record at home, and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road underdog. The Cougars are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the two teams, but the Wildcats have won and covered in the last two.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Clippers at Washington
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +4.5
I'm not sure if it is in either team's best interest to win this game as they are likely to be doing battle for the NBA's top draft pick. I just find it impossible to back a team that has the least wins in the NBA, has lost five straight by 10 points or more, and a combined 16.2 points per game. What makes it even more difficult is when you consider that even when they have won on the season, their last 18 games has seen them win by seven points just once, and the other 17 games show that giving five to anyone would have all resulted in losses ATS. The Clippers are at least 3-4 on the road in their last seven against teams with losing records, and two of the four losses have come by two points and OT. The Wizards are not meant to be a favorite against anyone as their 2-8 ATS mark attests to. This is an ugly game between two ugly teams, but the Clippers are worthy here.
Yankee Capper
Minnesota Wild +150
Utah Jazz +9.5
Connecticut -13
Scott Rickenbach
New Jersey Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: Philadelphia 76ers
This is a rare exception for us as we often focus on road teams in our handicapping. However, there are definitely situations that warrant riding the power of home court and this is one of them. Looking ahead, we expect to get line value with the Sixers here because New Jersey has a decent 11-11 road record through games of Monday. Also, Philadelphia is “just” 12-9 at home this season. This will keep this line from getting out of hand and that means we should be able to lay a “fair” number of points with a Philadelphia team that is surging right now. Before their loss to the Hornets in New Orleans on Monday, the Sixers had won eight of their last nine games. They will be coming into this game in a back to back situation because they are facing the Wizards on Friday night. However, both games are at home in Philly so there is no concern of “travel fatigue” here and the Sixers also shouldn’t have too much trouble putting away a struggling Washington team on Friday night. As for the Nets on Saturday, look for Philadelphia to exploit the “soft middle” of the Nets. They just don’t have much in the front court and New Jersey has been struggling as a result. The Nets have lost six of their last seven through Monday’s action. Also, they will come into this game in Philly off of a game at Atlanta the night before. So, like Philly, it’s a back to back. However, unlike Philly, the Nets are traveling and on the road for the 6th time in their last seven games. New Jersey is also playing right into the “teeth of revenge” here as they beat the Sixers in Philadelphia in early December. Look for the fired up Sixers, who have been playing much better ball than New Jersey, to get their revenge here. Consider a small play on the Sixers on Saturday night.
Lee Kostroski
Bradley @ Illinois State
PICK: Bradley
Intense rivalries many times favor the underdog and the old cliché’ “you can throw the records out the window” actually somewhat applies. The underdog is an even better proposition if they are a solid, competitive team. That is the case here with the Bradley Braves. In fact, the Braves sit in second place in the Missouri Valley Conference at 7-3, one game AHEAD of the 6-4 Illinois State Redbirds. Bradley has also covered 8 STRAIGHT in the “I-74 rivalry” including the last four as an underdog. We don’t see that changing today.
Bradley head man Jim Les simply knows how to win with a solid 78-49 SU record the last 3+ years including three straight 20 win seasons. This year’s team already has 13 wins so they are well on their way again. Because they are so well coached, this team isn’t fazed by going on the road. In fact, the Braves are 3-2 SU on the road in the Missouri Valley this year (4-1 ATS). Their two road losses have come by just 5-points at 1st place Northern Iowa and by 6-points at Southern Illinois. This team is 2nd in league games in shooting percentage and 1st in defensive field goal percentage. That makes them very dangerous as a dog. As usual, they will again be competitive on the road here making them a great play to stay under this lofty number.
Illinois State began the season on a huge tear winning their first 14 games. However, since then things haven’t been quite as rosy. The Redbirds have now lost 4 of their last 7 games and their three wins during that stretch have been far from dominating. Those wins were by 4-points vs. Drake, by 12 against Missouri State and by 7 over Southern Illinois. They are still a bit over valued because of their hot start and it’s evident when looking at this line. These teams are very similar in talent and statistically, yet ISU is the fairly heavy favorite here.
The first game between these two was close with Bradley winning at home 56-52. The last four games in this series have been decided by single digits and we expect the same here. Take a dangerous Bradley team plus the points.
Dave Malinsky
Kansas State @ Texas
PICK: Under
When the marketplace depends so much on math models in the setting of Totals there are some situations that can be flat-out missed, and this is a classic example – each of these offenses runs into a nightmare of a defensive matchup, and that makes for a game with an ugly flow and extremely low offensive efficiency.
We have played against the Kansas State offense successfully in Big 12 play, and the bottom line is a simple one – the Wildcats have neither the ball skills nor the designs to score against a quality defense. When they were able to get out into the open court and scramble vs. Missouri earlier in the week they made things happen through their athleticism, but all that does is help to set us up with this value. When forced into half-court play by Oklahoma (53 points) and Nebraska (51) there were stretches of “fingernails-on-chalkboard” basketball, and while they scored 71 at Kansas, much of that came when playing from behind in a blowout (they only shot 39.1 percent). A Texas defense that brings size, athleticism and fundamentally-sound technique is beyond the abilities of the State to decipher, with the Longhorns allowing just 39.2 percent shooting, and 31.7 beyond the arc, against a first-class schedule.
The Longhorns have an issue of their own, however, and that is the lack of a natural point guard. Rick Barnes is now giving more time to Dogus Balbay (21.6 minutes per game in Big 12 play) because neither A. J. Abrams nor Justin Mason were comfortable at the position, and the end result has been an anemic total of just 60 assists, and a weak 41.9 percent shooting, including 25.3 from 3-point range, through five Big 12 games. Balbay does take care of the ball, but he is not a shooter, so his lack of turnovers are negated by the fact that defenses can key on the other players. That is a bad weakness to have against a Wildcat defense that brings excellent ball pressure, forcing 360 turnovers already, while allowing only 237 assists. Without a quality floor leader, navigating through that defense is a significant challenge.
An added bonus here is that we do not have much to fear at the free throw line, with neither team able to even hit 66.0 percent so far. That sets this up all the way around for an ugly display of basketball, but one that will look pretty when the final result goes into the pockets.
John Ryan
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Over 199
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Utah/Portland slated to start at - Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 37-9 ATS for 80% since 2003. Play over all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points in a game involving two good offensive teams scoring 98-102 PPG and after a combined score of 175 points or less. 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. AiS shows a 90% probability that Utah will score 105 or more points in this game.
Tom Stryker
Saint Marys CA vs. Portland U
Play: Saint Marys CA -3.5
Even though St. Mary's will be without starting point guard and leading scorer Patrick Mills, the Gaels should have no trouble rebounding off their loss at Gonzaga.
In this series against Portland, SMC has been in control posting a solid 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS record in the last 14 meetings. Also, in its last 36 priced as road chalk, the Gaels are a money-making 26-10 ATS. On the other side of the court, the Pilots have struggled coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins notching an ugly 2-11-1 ATS mark. Even worse, in its last eight at the Chiles Center matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .700, Portland is a disturbing 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS!
Surprisingly, West Coast Conference home dogs are a miserable 56-105 ATS in conference play. With second place in the WCC on the line, the Gaels will rally the troops and pick up a huge win here. Take St. Mary's.
Rocketman Sports
Wright State vs. Cleveland State
Play: Cleveland State -6
Cleveland State is 5-1 ATS this year against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less. Cleveland State is scoring 68.2 points per game at home while allowing only 51.1 points per game at home this year. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Vikings are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win. Vikings are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Saturday games. Vikings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Vikings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite. We'll recommend a small play on Cleveland State tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY (Power Angle Play)
Arkansas/ LSU over 142.5: The Over is 30-12 in Razorbacks last 42 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, while the Over is 8-1 in Fighting Tigers last 9 games following a ATS win. The arkansas defense has not been that good this year, as they are allowing 70.3 ppg overall and 75.4 ppg in SEC play. Their offense has been good as they have put up a solid 76.9 ppg overall, despite only scoring 65.2 ppg in SEC play. The Fighting Tigers offense has been very good ths year as they are putting up 75.9 ppg overall, 78.3 ppg at home and 79.6 ppg in SEC play. LSU does own a very good defense, but the hoggs offense has the capabilties of getting their fair share of points, while their defense will have problems slowing down this LSU offense. Plenty of points in the Bayou tonight.
POWER ANGLE For This Play--- The Over is 12-1 in Arkansas road games when they face a team that is outscoring their opponents by 4+ ppg. Average points scored is 157.2 ppg
3 UNIT PLAYS
Notre Dame +11 Over PITTSBURGH: The Fighting Irish are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, while the Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This is just too haigh a number for the caliber of team the Irish is. Yes Notre Dame hasn't lived up to all their potential, but this is still a dangerous team, with an offense that can keep them in any game. Notre Dame is just 3-5 in the Big East, but just one of those losses were by more than 7 points. Pitt has played very well at home, but that doesn't intimidate the Irish as they have taken 5 of the last of the last 6 ATS in Pitt, with 54 of the last 5 here being decided by 3 points or less. Sometimes when a team struggles at home like the Irish have, the best thing for that team to do is get away and I believe that they will refocus enough to keep this one close.
Arizona State/ Washington over 138.5: The Over is 9-2 in Huskies last 11 road games, while the Over is 11-3 in Sun Devils last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home> Yes the Devils will try and slow this game down and keep the game in the low 60's, but I don't see that happening as the Huskies have the talent and abilty to make this a face paced game. Huskie games this year have put up 148.7 ppg, while their last 7 games overall have averaged 164.3 ppg. This game should be played in the 150's.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Southern Mississippi +6.5 over UTEP: The Golden Eagles are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. Conference USA, while the Miners are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Southern Miss hasn't had many true road games to this point, but the Miners are not an overwhelming home team, as evidenced by the fact that they have lost both Conf USA home games outright. Southern Miss has been playing very well of late, as they are 9-2 in their last 11 overall and they have staterted the conf USA schedule at 3-2. The Golden Eagles have been outscored by just 2.3 ppg on the road and they should have enough to stay with a mMiners squad that hasn't blown out their home opponents this year (6.2 ppg).
POWER ANGLE For This Play-- Southern Miss is 17-3 ATS vs teams that commit less than 14 TO's a game over the last 3 years. Southern Miss has been outscored by just 0.6 ppg in those games.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PURDUE -12 over Michigan: The Wolverines are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 road games, while the Boilermakers are 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 vs. Big Ten. Michigan is a horrible road team and are just 1-3 in Big 10 road games. Michigan has been outscored by 9 ppg on the road this year, including being outscored by 16 ppg in their last 3 Big 10 road games. Purdue is 11-2 at home this year and have outscored their opponents by 18.3 ppg in the process. This has the makings of a blowout.
Oklahoma -9 over IOWA STATE: The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big 12, while the Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Iowa State started off the season 11-4, but then the Big 12 season started and they have gone just 1--4 since. The Cyclones have been outscored by 9.6 ppg in Big 12 play this year. The Sooners have been rolling right along as they are 20-1 overall, including a perfect 6-0 in the Big 12. The Sooners have outscored opponents by 14.8 ppg on the year, including 11.2 ppg in Big 12 play. The Cyclones doo have an overall winning record, but their early schedule has not prepeared them for Big 12 play and it has showed. The Sooners are too tough right now and will walk away with anoth double digit win.
WEBER STATE -7 over Idaho State
Ohio State -7 over INDIANA
1 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Texas A&M Under 145.5: Traditionally this is a low scoring series as 11 of the last 12 have gone under the total, including the last 7, where an average of just 113 ppg have been scored. Oklahoma State has been involved in many high scoring games, but A&M is a home and I feel they will dictate a slower place. A&M games overall have scored just 133.4 ppg, while the home games have averaged 132.2 ppg, while their Big 12 games have averaged 137 ppg. I see another low scoring game here.
LOUISVILLE -6 over West Virginia
North Carolina -14.5 over NC State
NORTHERN ARIZONA -5.5 over Norther Colorado
Dwayne Bryant
Phoenix Suns -9.5
I love how this game sets up. Chicago is coming off back-to-back double-digit road wins -- by 20 at the Clippers and by 21 at Sacramento. The Suns are coming off a 10-point home loss to the Spurs. As a result of each team's recent performances, the public is taking Chicago plus nearly double digits. Looks easy, right? Well, you know what they say: "If it looks too good to be true, it probably is."
First, those two impressive road wins by the Bulls were against two of the worst teams in the league. They'll be stepping way up in class tonight. Second, this is the Bulls third road game in four nights and second roadie of a back-to-back (played at Sacramento last night), while the Suns had yesterday off. Third, this is a revenge game for the Suns, who got blown out (100-83) in Chicago back in early November. So the Suns will have motivation from that lopsided loss AND their home loss to the Spurs on Thursday. Fourth, the Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit home loss. Lastly, the favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bulls are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Phoenix.
The Bulls are:
4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win
7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 10
points
1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing without rest
1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home
record
1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning SU record
This is a great spot for the Suns and I see them winning by about 15.