Cajun Sports
Old Dominion vs. Drexel
Play: Drexel -2.5
Daskalakis Athletic Center will be the site of tonight’s Colonial Athletic Association battle between the host Drexel Dragons and the visiting Old Dominion Monarchs. The Monarchs are coming off three straight wins with their most recent a home win over Towson State 71 to 62 as a 13.5 point home favorite. The Dragons will be looking to bounce back from an overtime road loss at Delaware on Wednesday night 73 to 70 as a 1 point road favorite which snapped a seven game SU and ATS winning streak for the Dragons.
Old Dominion is 14-8 straight up and 6-10 against the spread this season. When the Monarchs play on the road they have a record of 4-5 SU and 4-3 ATS, in conference play they are 7-5 SU but only 4-8 ATS averaging 63.1 points per game while allowing 60.3 points per game.
Drexel is 12-9 straight up and a money-making 14-6 against the number this season overall. When playing on their home floor they are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS, in conference play the Dragons are 8-4 SU and a very solid 9-3 ATS averaging 67.0 points per game and only allowing 58.2 points per game to teams that average 68.4 points per game.
Drexel’s intimidating and manipulating defense will be the difference here tonight as the numbers listed above show the Dragons are holding opponents to more than ten points below their season average. The Monarchs will look to their big man 6 foot 10 inch forward Gerald Lee for offensive production and that will be hard to come by when facing this Dragons “D”. The Monarchs only have two players that average double-digits that’s Lee with 14.8 points per game and guard Ben Finney who averages 10.8 points per game. They are not a real inside-out threat and this Dragons defense will neutralize what little scoring they account for and have control of this game from the outset.
Old Dominion has not done a real good job of handling success especially against conference rivals as they are 2-13 ATS off a win against a conference rival the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. Drexel on the other hand is in a positive situation, they are 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season and 6-0 ATS as a home favorite. Success breeds success for the Dragons as they are 13-3 ATS in home games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997.
With the much more potent “D” playing on their home floor and the better overall offense we will lay the short price with the host as the Dragons get back to their winning ways and snap this abbreviated win streak of the Monarchs.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Drexel Dragons 70 Old Dominion Monarchs 60
Bob Harvey
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens Over 6.0
Both teams have been plagued by inconsistent play and injuries since the All-Star break and Toronto has continued a season long habit of poor defense and shoddy goaltending.
Montreal is 17-5-4 at home but for our needs the Habs are averaging 3.3. goals per game on home ice. They've also lit up their Canadian Original Six rivals this season, scoring 15 total goals while going 2-1-0 in the series,including a pair of six-goal efforts in their two victories. One of the contributing factors for the high scoring games between these two clubs is Toronto's 3.58 team goals-against average which ranks last in the league.
The Leafs (19-24-9) are 2-2-1 since the All-Star break, but they've allowed at least four goals in all five games, giving up a total of 23 over that span.
Starting goalie Vesa Toskala continues to struggle, with his career-worst 3.34 GAA and .883 save percentage both ranking as the second-worst in the league.
Toskala has been even worse against the Canadiens this season, with a 6.00 GAA in three starts, getting pulled from two of them after two periods.
At least one of the clubs has reached the six-goal mark in each of their three meetings earlier this season. The Leafs have allowed at least four goals in their last five games.
No fewer than seven goals have been scored in the first three series meetings with the two teams combining for eight biscuits in the basket in their last meeting on January 8th.
You've got hockey clubs that have disdain for one another and that could to a few extra "Power Play" opportunities tonight. Look for the Habs to break out of their scoring funk in a big way tonight as they outlast the Maple Leafs in yet another wild shootout.
Tom Freese
Minnesota at Houston
Houston is 8-1 OVER vs. the NBA Northwest Division and they are 8-3 OVER when playing with two days of rest. The Rockets are 17-8 OVER off two straight games where they were favored. Minnesota is 15-7-1 OVER their last 23 games and they are 13-5-1 OVER when playing with two days of rest. The Timberwolves are 4-0 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 9-3-1 OVER their last 13 games vs. Western Conference foes. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jimmy The Moose
Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo played and beat the Canadiens last night. The win was the Sabres 2nd staright and 3 in their last 4 games. Buffalo is 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. In their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record the Sabres are 9-2. Ottawa continues to struggle through a horrible season and tonight's not the night it turns around. The Senators have lost 4 straight and are 18-41 in their last 59 games. Ottawa has lost 4 of their last 5 home games. In their last 30 games vs. a team with a winning record the Senators are 6-24. Play on the Buffalo Sabres -.
Sportspic
Notre Dame at UCLA February
The Irish tailspin continued Wednesday in a 93-83 loss at Cincinnati marking six straight defeats (0-6 ATS). An inconsistent defense which has surrendered 85+ points in four of the six losses, an offense that hit a messily 39.2% from the floor in the losses the Irish tumble looks to continue Saturday.
Bruins off a balanced performance in defeating USC 76-60 on Wednesday enter 18-4 (11-10 ATS) scoring 76.1 PPG behind a triplet of double digit scorers in Collinson (14.1), Shipp (12.6) and Holiday (10.0). Bruins with one blemish at Pauley Pavilion thanks in large part to a stingy defense allowing just 58.7 PPG are outscoring visitors by 22 PPG in front of the home crowd.
Consider Bruins: Irish have lost five in-a-row (SU & ATS) on the highway by an average 12.4 PPG and come in 1-5 ATS last six vs a Pac-10 foe.
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks
Piston 26-21 (19-28 ATS) struggling of late finally picked up a rare win Thursday defeating Heat 93-90 giving the team a 4-9 record the past thirteen on the hardwood with a 3-9 mark at the betting window.
Pistons 12-10 (12-10 ATS) on the highway look to be in a great spot for back-2-back victories. Pistons have won 16-of-20 (11-8-1 ATS) meetings vs Milwaukee including 6-3 (5-4 ATS) at Bradley Center.
Bucks (24-28, 29-21-2 ATS) without both guard Michael Redd and center Andrew Bogut have been pegged 3-point underdogs for the contest.
Scott Rickenbach
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
This is a rare exception for us as we often focus on road teams in our handicapping. However, there are definitely situations that warrant riding the power of home court and this is one of them. Looking ahead, we expect to get line value with the Sixers here because Miami has been playing better ball of late and this is starting to attract attention from both the odds makers and the bettors! Also, since Philadelphia is just 13-10 at home this season through games of Monday, February 2nd this will keep this line from getting out of hand and that means we should be able to lay a fair number of points with a Philadelphia team that is surging right now. Before their loss to the Nets on Saturday, the Sixers had won ten of their last twelve games. They will be coming into this situation well-rested because they are in the middle of a seven game home-stand leading into the All-Star break! That means, of course, there is no concern of travel fatigue here and the Sixers also will be playing for just the third time in the last seven days! As for the Heat on Saturday, look for Philadelphia to take advantage of an injury depleted Heats back-court. Miami is expected to be without Daequan Cook here and his back-court absence negates the strength in the paint for Miami that is expected to be there with the return of Shawn Marion. Keep in mind the Sixers are also solid in the frontcourt even without Elton Brand and everyone is working well into the rotation. Philadelphias rotation was able to grow and get stronger during the time he was out. Consider a small play on the Sixers on Saturday night.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Florida State @ Clemson
PICK: Florida State
Clemson is coming off the win that basically put their basketball program on the map. Their 27 point beat-down of Duke was one of those games in which EVERYTHING went right for Clemson (and EVERYTHING went wrong for the Blue Devils). Duke shot just 30.8% and lost the rebounding margin by 10. We expect Clemson to have a hangover from that game and overlook a good Florida State squad coming to town.
Florida State is one of the most underrated teams in the ACC; at 17-5, they are just a few bad breaks away from having 2-3 more wins. The Seminoles lost to Duke by 8, Pittsburgh by 8, @Miami FL by 6, and on a buzzer-beating shot to North Carolina. The Seminoles boast one of the best defenses in the country. They allow 63.1 points per game on 37.8% shooting (and the fact that they play in the ACC makes it all that much more impressive). G Toney Douglas is quietly having himself an All-ACC caliber season. Douglas averages 20.2 points per game on 44% shooting.
Other than their dominating performance against Duke, Clemson has faltered in their other “big” games; falling by 10 to Wake Forest at home, and @North Carolina by 24. Looking ahead in their schedule, they have a rather “easy road,” so it would be easy for them to get caught up in the emotional victory over Duke. The Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and we expect that Florida State will continue to fly under the ACC-radar and get the ATS victory in Clemson. Go with Florida State.
MATT FARGO
Utah @ Wyoming
PICK: Wyoming
Wyoming is back home following a two-game roadtrip that took it to BYU and New Mexico. The Cowboys have been one of the best home teams around but also one of the worst road teams. Following that game against New Mexico on Tuesday, the home team is now 21-1 in their games this season. Wyoming has a -16.1 ppg scoring margin in nine road games and a +14.2 ppg scoring margin in 13 home games. That is an enormous scoring differential and actually one of the biggest in the nation, coming in at 7th overall. Coming off a small trip should once again get the home swagger back. They were completely embarrassed at New Mexico and in their previous three road losses where the next game was at home, they are a perfect 3-0 with those wins coming by 7.7 ppg. Knowing it has a week off before its next game, Wyoming will put forth an all out effort on Saturday and it certainly helps with this being a monster revenge spot as explained later. Utah has also had its share of good play at home and rough play on the road. The Utes are 9-2 at home but 4-5 on the road and while that road mark seems respectable, there have been some bad losses in the mix as well with two losses coming by nine or more points as well as a loss at Idaho St. To Utah’s credit, it has played a very tough schedule, ranked 9th in the country but there are other factors that negate that including an edge it usually has and that is free throw shooting. The Utes are solid at the line at 79 percent but they do not go to line nearly as much. Wyoming made 18-of-25 free throws against BYU on Saturday and 14-of-19 free throws against New Mexico last time out. The Cowboys lead the nation in free throws made (466) and attempted (630). They have outscored their opponents by a 466-299 margin at the stripe through 22 games. This is a huge revenge game for the Cowboys as they were absolutely embarrassed in Salt Lake City. Utah won that game 91-67 which was a revenge game of sorts in its own right as this has turned into a pretty heated series. It involved a last-second alley-oop that the Cowboys threw against the Utes at the end of their last meeting, infuriating Utah coach Jim Boylen into an angry post-game confrontation with Wyoming coach Heath Schroyer. Look for the Cowboys to avenge that loss and keep their perfect home record alive. Wyoming is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after playing two straight games on the road over the last three seasons. It is also 11-3 ATS after two straight losses over the last three seasons. Playing a team that does not create a lot of turnovers bodes well for the Cowboys as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams that force fewer than 14 turnovers per game. Making this one even better is the large number we are receiving here. While motivation will play a big part in Wyoming looking for the outright win, catching close to a touchdown at home is worth a big look. 3* Wyoming Cowboys
STEPHEN NOVER
Notre Dame @ UCLA
PICK: UCLA
Maybe a cross-country trip out of South Bend with an early start time is just what ailing Notre Dame needs right now.
But I'll have to see it first before I believe. In the meantime, I will continue to fade an Irish squad that has lost and failed to cover in their last six games, all against tough Big East competition.
Traveling out of conference this late in the season isn't usually good for the road team, especially on a journey this far away. UCLA is playing extremely well. The Bruins should be poised to jump all over the struggling Irish knowing they sustained early non-league losses to Michigan and Texas and this is a rare chance to host a big-time non-league foe.
A loss would be an embarrassement for UCLA and Bruins coach Ben Howland knows it. The Irish don't match up well to the Bruins either. Their presses won't be effective against Darren Collision.
The Bruins have by far the superior defense. They are much quicker than the Irish.
Notre Dame has failed to cover in its last seven games versus teams with a winning record, while the Bruins are 9-3 against the number the past 12 times they have faced a team with a winning mark.
This is a one-unit play for me.
Sean Higgs
Air Force vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -18
Air Force is just brutal. San Diego State, even with a let-down factor after their last big OT win, should be able to manhandle this over-matched bunch. FREE PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
Info Plays
3* on Miami Heat +4.5
Reasons why Miami covers the spread Saturday:
1.) The 76ers suffered a big blow when Elton Brand was pronounced out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. That news came prior to Saturday's home match-up with Miami, and the 76ers are really getting short-handed.
2.) The Heat are coming off a heartbreaking loss at Detroit 90-93. We look for the Heat to bounce back tonight against a 76ers' team that squeaked by Indiana 99-94 last time out. Miami is 17-8 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Philly will struggle to find points tonight after losing Brand for the season.
3.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - poor three point shooting team (=36.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's). This is a 33-9 ATS System hitting 78.6% over the last 5 seasons. Philly really relies on getting points in the paint, but they will have to rely on more perimeter shooting tonight to try and take down the Heat and it won't work. Philly shoots just 32.7% from 3-point range on the season. Bet Miami on the road.
Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Iowa -2
Iowa will return home Saturday hungry for a victory after handing Indiana their first Big Ten win of the season on Wednesday. The Hawkeyes host Northwestern, who are coming off 3 straight home wins but none were impressive. The Wildcats beat Indiana at home by just 2, a down Wisconsin team by 3 and then Chicago State by 12 in a non-conference meeting. Coach Bill Carmody is 6-24 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the coach of Northwestern. Carmody is 1-9 ATS off 3 or more consecutive home wins in all games he has coached since 1997. The Wildcats will simply run into a hungrier Iowa team Saturday. Iowa has won 8 of their last 9 home games vs. Northwestern, and as just a small home favorite Saturday the Hawkeyes are worth a shot against a team they have dominated in the past. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 SU at home this season, while Northwestern is just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS on the road. Lastly, Northwestern is 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats' 3 consecutive wins coming in are far from impressive. Cash in with Iowa as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Oklahoma State +12
Oklahoma State has to be feeling pretty good to come away with a 1-point win hosting Texas Tech last game. The Cowboys were likely looking ahead in that game in anticipation of playing at Kansas this weekend. We look for the Cowboys to come out aggressive and stay right with the overrated Jayhawks in this one. Oky State is off to a solid 14-7 start this year, and they have yet to lose a Big 12 road game by more than 12 points. Kansas continues to win, but their margin of victory has been slim as of late. They beat Nebraska by 6, Colorado at home by just 5, and then Baylor by 10. Kansas won the National Championship last season, and this Oklahoma State team beat the Jayhawks 61-60 last year in one of the most entertaining games of the season. With 4 starters back from that team, the Cowboys will look back to that win to give them the confidence needed to compete at Kansas Saturday. Kansas is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight games making 78% of their free throws or better over the last 3 seasons. This will be a close game which will be decided by free throws in the end, and Kansas may get the win because of their great free throw shooting but the margin of victory will not come by double-digits. Take Oklahoma State and the points.
Mike Wynn
Minnesota @ Ohio St
Very important match up for both these teams Saturday as Minnesota travels to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. At the time of this writing Ohio St is 16-5 overall and 6-4 in conference after a big overtime win over Purdue The Gophers are ranked 19th in the country with an 18-3 overall record and a 6-3 mark in conference but still have a major road block playing Michigan St in East Lansing. If Minnesota wins that game they’ll be tied for first in the Big10, and they lose they’ll be tied with Ohio St a couple games out of the top spot. Neither team is a lock for the NCAA tournament at this point, but Minnesota with a win over Louisville has the stronger resume at this point. Ohio St is certainly more of a bubble team with their best wins over Notre Dame, Miami-Fla, and now Purdue on Tuesday. The Big10 is not a strong conference again this year and I don’t see the committee going real deep on Selection Sunday. So let’s take a look at both these teams Saturday and we’ll start with the visiting Gophers of Minnesota.
Tubby Smith in his second year at the helm in Minnesota has the program headed in the right direction. Gophers 18-3 heading into Wednesday’s game have a great chance to make the big dance this season. Minnesota’s strength this season is their depth. Gophers have 11 guys averaging double digits in minutes this season so Tubby keeps fresh troops on the floor. Minnesota is led in scoring by junior guard Lawrence Westbrook and his 13.9 points per game this season. Tubby Smith is doing at Minnesota what he successfully did at Kentucky, and that’s putting on the defensive pressure and forcing turnovers and getting easy buckets. Minnesota defense is only allowing 61.6 points per game this season and if they’re knocking down their perimeter shots they are a tough team to beat.
Ohio St Buckeyes fresh off a big win over Purdue on Tuesday night have put themselves in good position for post-season play, but this game Saturday becomes very big for them. A win here Saturday over Minnesota would get the Buckeyes to 7-4 in Big10 in conference play and 17-5 overall and sitting well, but a loss here at would be very detrimental to post-season plans. Buckeyes don’t have quite the bench that Minnesota does and Thad Matta generally goes with a 6 man rotation for the most part. Ohio St leading scorer is sophomore G/F Evan Turner averaging 17 points per contest. Turner 1 of 3 Buckeyes knocking down three pointers at better than 40% this season and Ohio St needs the outside shooting to be there to be successful. Buckeyes all in all are a boarder line NCAA tournament team that probably won’t get far. They lack a strong presence in the post, they don’t shoot free-throws well, and perimeter oriented teams generally don’t last long in March.
Looking at this match up Saturday the early number is right around Ohio St -4. I tend to like the Buckeyes here simply because they’re going to need it more than Minnesota and the Gophers will be coming off a big game against Michigan St. If The Gophers were to knock off Michigan St it would make for a solid play on Ohio St, but it not I still think the Buckeyes are worth a small play Saturday.
#1 Sports
Texas @ Nebraska
Texas (15-5, 4-2 Big 12) The Longhorns rallied from 17 down with just 7 minutes to play Saturday at the Erwin Center but fell 81-85 in overtime to Kansas State, ending their 19-game home win streak and allowing a conference record 44 points to junior guard Dennis Clemente. Coach Rick Barnes’s (262-98 in 11th season at Austin) team is just one of 8 college crews in the country to earn an invitation to the NCAA Tournament each of the last 10 seasons, with his fine recruiting skills and a remarkable ability to mold his coaching philosophy from year to year to match his personnel key to consistent success. Experience is one of Texas’s top assets this go-round with 5 upperclassmen most often making up the starting lineup and 5’11” senior SG AJ Abrams (16.9p, 2.7r, 1.7a) the squad’s best weapon with outstanding outside range. Abrams has hit 58 of 153 from deep this year and has buried a career Big 12 Conference-best 342 triples in his 129 games. Backfield mate 6’2” junior PG Justin Mason (7.2p, 4.0r, 4.9a) is decent but backup 6’2” freshman G Varez Ward (3.5p, 2.5r, 1.8a) has been eating into his time recently with a combined 17 points and 8 boards in the last two contests. And speaking of earning more minutes, 6’6” 233 sophomore F Gary Johnson (11.5p, 6.7r) – who missed the first 13 games of 2007-2008 with a serious heart ailment that easily could have ended his playing days – has battled all the way back to start each of the Horns last 4 games, leaving the much bigger 6’10” 298 junior C/F Dexter Pittman (8.3p, 4.4r) on the bench at tip. Size inside has been a Longhorn luxury for years and they again have a solid rebounding advantage this season with 40.8 boards per game compared to 35.7 for opponents but this front court isn’t up to snuff with those of past seasons. 6’7” 222 junior F Damion James (15.7p, 8.6r, 1.2a) is a very productive player with 8 double/doubles this campaign but lacks ideal size needed against the top tier big men while 6’10” 228 senior starting C/F Connor Atchley (5.6p, 3.6r) just has never had the athleticism to match his will to get his hands dirty. Texas averages 72.7 points per game, allow 62.8 per game, are 6-4 away from Austin, and play a home game Wednesday night against Missouri before this contest.
Nebraska (13-7, 3-4 Big 12) The Cornhusker ended a 3-game losing streak Saturday night with a fine 82-69 win over Texas Tech in Lubbock, forcing 20 turnovers by the Red Raiders and racking their best road point total in 5 seasons. There’s just no getting around the dominating feature of Coach Doc Sadler’s (50-34 in 3rd season at Lincoln) unit: This team is small. The smallest in Division I. So small that each of their top 8 scorers are guards. 5’7” sophomore PG Cookie Miller (7.8p, 2.3r, 4.2a) is the smallest player in the Big 12 Conference. This team is so small that only one regular Nebraska player holds a position other than guard – 6’8” 235 junior F Chris Balham (2.1p, 2.5r) and he averages just 10.2 minutes per game. OK, so you get that this team is small but this team also shoots the lights out, is extremely deep, is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and has some kids playing their best ball right now. The Huskers may only score 67.5 points per game but have nailed their shots from the field at a 45.7% rate including a sterling 37.7% from behind the arc (remember the NCAA moved the line back), led by 6’2” senior 6th man Paul Verlander (8.6p, 1.7r) who has converted 50 of 111 from deep – one of seven players with at least 9 triples. Seven Nebraska players have also racked at least 17 steals this season to contribute to the Big 12’s best 9.3 thefts per contest and the conference’s least points allowed at 58.9 per trip. Only Oklahoma and Oklahoma State managed 70+ points against these stoppers and through 20 games opponents have managed just 215 assists versus 365 turnovers. 6’0” freshman backup G Brandon Richardson is back from an injury and is making the most of it with 19 combined points is two games last week, now giving Coach Sadler eight players averaging at least 4 points per game, and he’s not the only hot hand right now. 6’5” senior G Ade Dagunduro (11.8p, 3.8r, 1.6a) has shot better than 61% from the field over his last 14 games and has piled up 44 points in the last two while Cookie Miller has averaged 11.1 points per in conference play, 16.0 in his last four, and 19.0 his last two. Nebraska plays Colorado in Boulder Wednesday night prior to this match up.
SELECTION: The Huskers have been out-boarded in 15 of their 20 games (28.5 rebounds per to 33.7) in 2008-2009 but playing this squad’s 5-guard lineup is a different challenge than any the Longhorns have faced. Forcing Abrams to play hard on both ends of the court is the key to pulling off the upset and Doc Sadler’s got the personnel to make that happen. Take Nebraska at the Devaney Center on Saturday.