Tom Stryker
Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville -5
Evansville has dropped 11 of its last 12 in this series and the Purple Aces best chance for a victory is right here.
In the January 25th meetings between these two MVC schools, Evansville owned the advantage for most of the game. With just eight ticks left on the clock, Wichita State's Toure' Murry hit a game-winning three-point shot to lift the Shockers to the 51-50 victory. That loss was a tough pill to swallow for the Purple Aces and they'll be primed to pick up a little revenge.
WSU has quietly won five of its last six. However, the road hasn't been kind to the Shockers. In their last 29 games on foreign courts, Wichita State is a woeful 5-24 SU and 10-16-2 ATS. Also, as a guest going into revenge and matched up against an opponent that enters off a pointspread loss, the Shockers are a nasty 18-28 ATS and have dropped seven straight to the line in this role.
Evansville has always been a tough out when running the floor in Roberts Stadium. In fact, when priced as a single-digit home favorite, the Purple Aces have cruised to a profitable 32-14 ATS record in their last 46 games including a solid 17-7 ATS in this role coming off a straight up loss. Also, when battling an opponent that checks in off back-to-back spread wins, the Purple Aces have been golden notching a superb 16-7 ATS mark!
Evansville played well in its first meeting against Wichita State but fell short at the buzzer. This time the Purple Aces will finish the job. Take Evansville.
maddux sports
Today's Free Pick is College of Charleston +17
JACK JONES
UCLA -10 over Notre Dame
To say Notre Dame has fallen apart would be an understatement. Most pundits put this team in the Top 10 earlier in the year when they got off to their 10-2 start, but 12-9 those days are long gone. I don't even think this team should make the NCAA Tournament right now after their double digit loss to Cincinnati. UCLA on the other hand is 8-2 in Pac-10 play and 18-4 overall. On Wednesday I was impressed with their 76-60 win over USC and I'm impressed with how they are only allowing 60.5 ppg while scoring 76.1 ppg. The Irish aren't playing good enough defense to contain the Bruins, while UCLA will find a way to slow down Luke Harangody and the Irish offense. 83-69 UCLA
Villanova -5.5 over Syracuse
I don't feel as strong about this game but it's on ESPN today so I figured I'd put a small amount of action on it myself. The Wildcats have won four straight games to get to 18-4 overall and 6-3 in the Big East, while the Orange have been sliding a little bit, losing their last three games in January. Sure they just beat West Virginia, but the backcourt really carried them through in that game and they won't be able to score on the more athletic Villanova team quite as easily. This Wildcat team is putting up 75 ppg with Dante Cunningham, Scottie Reynolds, and Corey Fisher all averaging double digits. I just can't see the Orange stealing one from Villanova on their home floor, but I can see the Wildcats winning by double digits. I'm predicting a 76-68 final in this one
YANKEE CAPPER
Houston Rockets -7.5
Dallas Mavericks -7
NCAA HOOPS:
Miami-OH -9.5
Syracuse/Villanova o149
NHL
Buffalo Sabres -120
Carolina Hurricanes +110
Florida Panthers +180
WHO2BETON
The Samford Bulldogs have quietly been one of the better teams against the spread in the county, and we look for that ATS success to continue tonight when they visit the Wofford Terriers.
The Bulldogs are coming off of a loss as road favorites at Furman on Thursday, dropping them to a still excellent 11-5 ATS, but they are better suited by this underdog role. In fact, Samford is 6-2 vs. the number when getting points this season. They are also in a revenge spot here, after losing outright at home to these Terriers last month.
Wofford makes for a rather shaky favorite, as they are under .500 straight up at 9-11 and they have not done a good job of protecting their home court, going a modest 4-3 SU and a poor 1-4 ATS in this building. In fact, the Terriers enter this contest on a 1-6 ATS run, mainly due to a bad defense that is allowing 71.2 points per game on 47.2 percent shooting on the season and 75.8 points on a disgusting 49.8 percent shooting the last five games.
Meanwhile, Samford is allowing just 62.1 point per game on the year and a miniscule 59.0 points the last five games, so we will gladly take the better defense getting points in this spot.
Pick: Samford +3
Wunderdog
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas +7.5
Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven't managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-8.2 ppg) as a road dog after a win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them and 0-11 ATS (-6.1 ppg) off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak. Take Atlanta.
Larry Ness
Kansas State @ Texas A&M
PICK: Texas A&M
The Wildcats enter today's game in College Station with A&M on a four-game winning streak. While two of the wins were over Big 12 bottom-feeders Colorado and Iowa St, KSU also won 88-72 at home over Missouri and last Saturday, 85-81 in OT at Texas. However, winning a second straight Saturday on the road in this state of Texas, is NOT going to happen. KSU looks to control the tempo and did a great job of that in beating Missouri and Texas but I don't think A&M will allow that to happen. The Aggies are 13-1 SU at home this year, losing only a hard-fought game to Oklahoma, 69-63. A&M was coming off back-to-back wins when it lost 77-71 in Norman this past Wednesday, but it should be noted that A&M played very well vs the Sooners, actually leading that game with around six minutes to go before fading (those things happen against Blake Griffin and the Sooners). Guards Clemente (14.3) and Pullen (13.6) are KSU's only double digit scorers and in A&M, the Wildcats face an opponent which can go nine-deep (nine players have been in at least 21 of the team's 23 games, while averaging a minimum of 12 MPG). Six players are averaging at least 20 MPG, with 6-7 swingman Carter (13.0-4.0), guard Sloan (11.3), the 6-9 Davis (10.7-6.2) and the 6-10 Elonu (10.1-7.5) all averaging double digits. Mark Turgeon will switch up his defenses and I look for the Aggies to win this one fairly handily, as KSU's modest winning streak ends.
David Malinsky
Air Force @ San Diego State
PICK: Air Force
As February approaches we get a chance to begin riding one of our favorite horses in the sports betting field, the classic (to us, at least) “Revenge Game That Is Not”. This one fits the value elements almost perfectly. Through the years we have cashed a lot of big road underdog plays in the second go-round of NCAA conference action in February with a particular common denominator – these big dogs were all playing with revenge. And at the same time, they were not. So let’s get to it.
When you are struggling as badly as Air Force is right now, and the way that most teams would be if they are taking a +18 in a conference game, the notion of “revenge” is not much of a factor. If you got whipped on your own court by a particular opponent, there is not much pretense that you are going to go on the road and turn the tables. And that is part of why we get such value for these games – we are playing on ugly teams that draw no market interest, because the markets can easily see that revenge is not a factor. But indeed it is, for the other team.
We are not so much betting on these underdogs as we are bucking the favorite. And from a value standpoint it is an ideal concept – the better of a season the favorite is having, the less likely they are to get big margins in these return matches. If you are having a good season it means that there are bigger games ahead, and likely a tournament appearance, and that works against them in two ways in these settings. First, it is awfully hard to get excited about a team that you have already dominated on the road. Second, these return matches provide a chance to take a breather in between more serious challenges.
San Diego State is the ideal foil. Steve Fisher’s Aztecs are precariously short on depth, especially with Lorenzo Wade likely sitting this one out. That makes getting big margins difficult enough most nights, but off of a draining overtime win at U.N.L.V., and with another major Mountain West showdown at Utah on deck, this is not a spot to extend any more energy than is necessary. At 16-5 it is time to just win and move on, and Fisher would be more than happy to win this by far less than tonight’s spread. Meanwhile the Falcons are a classic play-on, a scrappy team that plays hard every night, and brings a different mental discipline from most struggling sides. Jeff Reynolds shook up his lineup by starting three freshmen against Brigham Young earlier in the week, and while the final score was another loss and non-cover, note that they had the lead outright at 45-43 with 10 minutes remaining. They played with a lot of enthusiasm and energy, and that will be enough to stay within this price against a favorite that will not bring a lot of passion to the Arena.
Andre Gomes
CHI +7 vs DAL
I understand that Dallas was spanked in Dallas last Thursday in front of national audience and they look to make a bounce back tonight. However, 7 points is just too much for this game as their opponent is motivated and playing their best basketball of the season.
For starters, Dallas is not that kind of team who reacts powerfully after a loss like the Cavs who are 9-0 ATS after a loss or Orlando (7-4 ATS), No! They are 2-5 ATS at home after a loss, which tells us that they aren't a tough team to beat when they are in a bad mood. Also it's important to say that they aren't a typical powerful home team as well as in this season they are only 7-15 ATS at home and 7-12 ATS being home favorites. My point is that I can't see them as powerful home team who will spank anyone in this game just because they lost by 28 points in the last game and look for redemption tonight.
They will play against Chicago, who is playing a great basketball lately. We are used to see this team struggled badly on the road, but this isn't the case of this last road trip, as they are 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS. Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng are all playing great with a lot of confidence and this team was competitive in some tough places like Phoenix, Houston or New Orleans. They didn't show any kind of fear in the last game against the Hornets without Chris Paul, as they gained an early lead and never looked back. During this road trip they shot 50% of the field and averaged 25.8 apg for just 11.0 TO/game.
Usually I don't like to bet on teams that are playing the final road trip game as usually, we are dealing with tired team who just wanted to go home. This is not the case of the Bulls as they had 2 days off to rest and prepare this game. In my opinion, the X factor will be the matchup in the Point Guard position: Derrick Rose vs Jason Kidd.
Jason Kidd remains a great player, but while facing younger explosive opponents, he struggles to stop those guys because Jason Terry is also a terrible defender player. Did you notice that Deron Williams ended last game shooting 11-20 FG for 34 points and 12 assists?! Or Brandon Roy ended with 10-20 FG for 26 points, or Dwayne Wade ended with 13-23 FG for 30 points. My last example will be the supreme mismatch: Devin Harris torched Jason Kidd and the Mavs by scoring 41 points for a stellar performance of 14-25 from the field. Well, Derrick Rose is playing terrifying basketball on this road trip scoring 16.8 ppg for 60% from the field and dishing 6.8 assists per game.
I think that this game will be a ballgame decided only down the stretch and I see the Bulls winning outright in here. Dallas in the last home against Portland almost blew a lead of 9 points in 30 seconds and the Bulls are an extremely confident team right now. They won on the road in Phoenix outscoring them by 34-28 in the final quarter and even in the last defeat in Houston they almost rallied back the game and outscore the Rockets 34-28 in the last quarter. I'm taking the Bulls in here.
Note: split your wager,
2/3 units on Bulls + 7
1/3 Units on Bulls ML @ +260
Wunderdog
Arkansas at Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas +7.5Arkansas has found the going tough in recent SEC play, but they remain a viable threat to the Bulldogs who have been just 2-2 in their last four. The Bulldogs have had offensive droughts recently as a team that was scoring 70+ in five straight games has now gone stone cold offensively. They haven't managed to score more than 67 points in their last four games - averaging just 63 points per game. The Razorbacks have stepped up against the better teams as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a .600+ winning percentage on the season. The Bulldogs are at their worst in this role, having gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a 7-12.5 point home favorite. I like the Razorbacks in this one.
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -142
The Islanders started the season doing well on the road as they posted wins in five of their first 10 games. What has happened since has been brutal. The Islanders have won just one time in their last 15 on the road, so there simply isn't any value on this team especially with a low moneyline pinned on the Lightning in this one. The Lightning have dropped four straight themselves, but three of those were on the road. They return home for this one where they have been 3-1 in their last four. The Islanders are cashing just 24 of their last 78 as a road dog, and I don't expect them to be cashing this one either. The Lightning gets the call.
Ted Sevransky
Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks
PICK: Chicago Bulls
I bet against the Bulls more than once in January, as they suffered a significant drop-off from a 13-14 start. Vinny Del Negro’s squad went 5-13 SU in their next 18 ballgames. But the light switch has gone on for the young Bulls, winning four out of five t on their current road trip. Del Negro: “Winning builds confidence, that’s the bottom line….I like our mind-set right now.”
Even though I’ve criticized the Bulls, they are a very talented and deep ballclub. Chicago has the better players at nearly every position in this matchup, as well as the superior bench. Ben Gordon, Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah—these guys were all lottery picks, and have begun to play like it. The Rose- Jason Kidd matchup, in particular, works strongly in Chicago’s favor. Kidd’s defense is non-existent these days, and younger, quicker point guards are running circles around him.
We’re seeing an inflated pointspread here on the final game of a long, grueling seven game trip for Chicago. Bettors think Dallas has something to prove off their ugly loss at Utah on Thursday Night. That extra value is very good news for Bulls bettors when we consider Dallas’s 6-15 ATS mark as home chalk so far this season. 2* Take Chicago.