LT Profits
Georgetown +4.5
The Georgetown Hoyas were flying high after upsetting Connecticut around New Years Day but the have hit the skids since game, going 3-8 straight up and a dismal 1-9-1 against the spread including their current six-game ATS losing streak.
The lone cover during this swoon however did come vs. their opponent today, the Syracuse Orange, in rather emphatic fashion (88-74), and the recent struggles of the Hoyas appears to give us nice line value here.
After all, Syracuse has not exactly been a powerhouse lately, and we feel their current number 22 ranking is undeserved. That is a moot point though as they will most likely drop out of the rankings this week, as they are just 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last six games.
Sure, the Orange is 13-2 at home, but their home Big East wins have come against either lightweights (Seton Hall, DePaul) or against teams that have struggled on the road (Notre Dame, West Virginia). In their only true challenge at home, Syracuse lost to Louisville by double-digits.
Now the Hoyas have certainly underperformed lately, but this seems like a good spot to get back on track. Besides, even with their bad slump, Georgetown is still ranked considerably higher in the Pomeroy Ratings (21) than Syracuse is (33). It certainly helps that the Hoyas are ranked 27 in the nation in raw offensive efficiency despite facing a schedule that is ranked third toughest in the land.
Do not forget that the Georgetown defense is also in the top 30 in steal percentage, and area where the Orange have been vulnerable. Thus, look for the Hoyas to take this game to the wire, and an outright upset would not surprise us one bit.
Pick: Georgetown +4.5
Dennis Macklin
Connecticut at Seton Hall
Prediction: Seton Hall
UConn was just marginal covering big road numbers with it's full compliment of players. Today the Huskies will be without second leading scorer Dyson (knee, maybe season) against the hottest team in the Big East, Seton Hall. That's right, Seton Hall. The Pony Pirates have won five straight and have covered six of eight. As good as UConn is with Thabeet and Adrien, we'll fade a 9-8 fave laying DD on the road with DD points on the pine. Take Seton Hall.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cincinnati +16.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Bearcats are a completely different team than they were early in the Big East season but they still are not getting the respect they deserve. Cincy has won 7 of 9 SU and ATS and is getting plenty of points today against a Pitt team that will be looking ahead to its Big Monday showdown with UConn. The Bearcats are 3-1 ATS in this matchup the last 3 seasons, playing Pitt as tough as anyone. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. We'll take the points here.
Dwayne Bryant
I'm betting on: Iowa +5.5
This game just missed the cut as being one of my 10 Bets per Week.
Revenge game for Iowa after getting pounded 75-53 at Purdue last month. Purdue has a showdown with Big Ten leader Michigan State up next, so the Boilermakers could very well be caught looking ahead to that one and past an Iowa team that they've already manhandled.
Iowa plays tremendous defense at home (53.7 ppg allowed on 39.5% shooting) and they also rebound well at home (+5.1 rpg). The intensity and motivation should be high for the Hawkeyes and I expect their defense and rebounding to keep this game close and perhaps lead to an upset.
The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. The Hawkeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less.
We have revenge, trends, and a look-ahead situation in our favor. I'll grab the points with the live home dog.
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play in college basketball, we’ll take Kansas State at home against rival Kansas in Big 12 action.
The Wildcats have turned their season around over the last three weeks, winning six straight games and going 5-0 ATS in the last five. Included in the run were impressive wins over Missouri (88-72 at home as a three-point underdog) and Texas (85-81 as a 10 ½-point road pup). K-State has really found its offense during the winning streak, averaging 77.5 ppg after scoring just 60 ppg in their first four Big 12 contests (all losses).
That includes an ugly 87-71 loss at Kansas as a six-point underdog back on Jan. 13. In that defeat, Kansas simply could not miss (58.3 percent shooting) while the Wildcats struggled with their shot (39.1 percent). Also, the Jayhawks benefited from some “home cooking” as they went to the free-throw line 37 times (making 26) compared to K-State’s 22 foul shots (making 16). Today, you have to expect that free-throw discrepancy to narrow considerably on the ‘Cats’ home court.
As for the Jayhawks, they finally tasted defeat in Big 12 play with Monday’s 62-60 loss at Missouri, ending an eight-game winning streak. And even though they covered as a five-point underdog – improving to 5-0 ATS in conference road games this season – they’re still just averaging 69.6 ppg on the road (and giving up 67.3), while Kansas State is putting up 82.1 ppg at home (and allowing 62).
Bottom line: Because of Kansas’ recent run of pointspread success, and because of their big victory over the Wildcats a month ago, the oddsmakers had to make the Jayhawks a small chalk in this game. But that doesn’t mean the right team is favored. Because it’s not. Take Kansas State plus the points.
4♦ KANSAS STATE
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take Syracuse at home.
There is no doubt that Jim Boeheim's squad has been an absolute dog with fleas on the road of late. 'Cuse just has not been the same team away from the Carrierdome and therefore have struggled mightily to put it lightly. They allowed 100 in a loss in Providence, then 102 at Villanova and in the last game lost once again in a non-cover at UCONN scoring a whole 49 points.
But back home here and against a team that also has not been all that themselves in Georgetown I will take my chances with the talented Orange.
When Syracuse comes to play they can beat anybody. This team is extremely talented when healthy as guys like Devendorf, Flynn, Harris, Onuaku, Rautins and others can ball with the best of them. These guys are explosive as heck and can run any opponent out of their gym. Forget about the fact that they have dropped five straight on the road because they are not traveling today and that stat is meaningless to me here.
A month ago the Hoyas pounded the Orange 88-74 and today is all about revenge. John Thompson III's squad has not been right since that win and are a porous 4-7 in the Big East. Yes they certainly have to win this game but the 6-6 Orange do not have all that much wiggleroom themselves and at home with revenge definitely should win and cash the ticket.
Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning ain't taking the court today and after losing six of seven the Hoyas are in trouble yet again!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
OK, we were way off last night with Villanova as the Wildcats got destroyed by West Virginia. That’s fine. We’re bouncing back today as we’re taking Wyoming on the road at San Diego State.
Sure, Wyoming isn’t a sexy pick, but consider that the Cowboys are catching about 17 points on the road and they’re playing an Aztecs team they always play tough and you’ll realize this is a no brainer.
Consider that over their last six meetings Wyoming is 3-3 SU against San Diego State, but is 4-2 ATS and beat the Aztecs outright when they played Jan. 14. In their first meeting of this season the Cowboys were installed as 6 ½ point underdogs, but on outright 83-79.
Over their last five games in San Diego, Wyoming is 3-2 ATS with the Cowboys going 2-1 ATS their last three games in San Diego. In that five game stretch the Aztecs have only outscored the Cowboys, on average, 75.2-66.6.
Wyoming will keep this one close and will definitely utilize the points the Aztecs are laying. Take the points in this one tonight and take Wyoming on the road.
3♦ WYOMING
Sports Gambling Hotline
Connecticut at SETON HALL +11
Winner Friday night on Butler minus the points, now 7-2-2 our last 11 comp plays!
Early Saturday action, and we are backing the double-digit home dog Seton Hall plus the points against # 1 Connecticut.
No doubt UConn is strong, and we are not calling for the outright upset here, but Seton Hall has been coming on strong down the stretch, and they enter today's tilt having won their last 5 straight up, while going 4-1 against the spread.
The Huskies will have to adjust to life withour guard Jerome Dyson, and while they should have enough to get by today - they are 8-0 straight up the last 8 meetings, 7-1 against the spread! - UConn did fail to cover the first meeting this season against the Pirates, winning by 15 as the 18 1/2-point favorite.
Expect another Huskies outright, but getting on top of double-digits on the road without one of your starters could be a dicey propostion.
Play on the Hall plus the points.
2♦ SETON HALL
Bobby Maxwell
Cincinnati +16' at PITTSBURGH
Yet another FREE winner Friday night with Valpo who got an easy win and cover over Loyola-Chicago. That makes 12 of 19 days with comp winners and we'll get you another one today with Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.
This is absolutely crazy how many points the Bearcats are getting in this one. So let's thank the Man, grab them and cash in when this one is over.
Cincinnati has won three straight and seven of its last nine (SU and ATS) and they just beat St. John's on Wednesday 71-61 as a nine-point favorite. The Bearcats have been one of those teams that can play any style, lighting up the scoreboard in a shootout or playing a defensive struggle like they did at Georgetown a week ago, winning 64-62 in overtime as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs.
Pitt has won four straight and they rely on their offense to outslug the opposition as they have allowed 69.4 points a game over the last five.
Cincinnati has gotten the cash in each of the last three meetings with the Panthers even though they have only won one of those games. Last year the Bearcats went to Pitt and hung tough all the way through, losing 73-67 as 10 1/2-point underdogs.
Let's be grateful, grab all these points and play Cincinnati.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Bobby Maxwell
Stanford at CAL -6
Winning days 12 of the last 19 with FREE selections and another one for you here with Cal hosting Stanford in Pac-10 action.
California has won two straight, sweeping the Washington schools last weekend, including an 86-71 blowout of Washington as one-point home 'dogs. Tonight the Bears have got payback on their mind as their rivals come to town and they'll get it.
Cal lost to Stanford 75-69 as three-point favorites about a month ago and they will get that payback today.
The Golden Bears seem to get the offense going at home, averaging 79 points a game on the home court and shooting 53 percent from the floor, including an amazing 49 percent from the 3-point line. Defensively, they allow just 62.5 points a game on the home floor.
Cal is 9-3 ATS on the home floor, including 8-2 ATS in the last 10. The Bears are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a favorite. In this series, the favorite is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings and Cal will be improving on that one tonight.
The Bears have got a trio of players that can score at will in Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson who put in a combined 57 points in their last outing.
Let's go with the home team in this one as Cal has something to prove.
4♦ CAL
Karl Garrett
Stanford at CALIFORNIA -7
The G-Man is on a 9-4 comp play run the last 13 days, 14-6 overall the last 20 days.
Call me a "square", but I am buying into the Mike Montgomery-factor today, and looking for his Golden Bears to defeat his old team Stanford both straight up, and against the spread.
The Bears lost in Palo Alto 75-69 back on January 17th, as the Cardinal did cover the 2 1/2-point impost in that one, but this game is at the Haas Pavillion where the Golden Bears are a whopping 14-1 straight up, and a nifty 9-2 against the spread in lined home games.
Cal does lead the nation in triples at nearly 45% will most definitely bang home more than they did in their meeting on the road when they hit just 5-of-15.
Johnny D's team has dropped 4 of their last 6 straight up, and are just 3-4 straight up away from the cozy confines of the Maples Pavillion.
Have to lay the wood here, as Montgomery evens the score against his former employer.
G-Man on Cal minus the points.
3♦ CALIFORNIA
Black Widow Sports
1* on Ohio -12.5
Toledo is a terrible 4-20 on the season, and their play away from home has been pathetic to put it lightly. The Rockets are now 1-13 SU in road games, going 2-9 ATS in their lined road contests. They are losing by an average of 13.2 points per game when playing away from home. Ohio, on the other hand, has done basically all their damage at home this year. The Bobcats own a 9-1 home record and have gone 5-2 ATS in all lined home games. They are outscoring their opponents by 12.3 points per game at home. Coming off a bad loss at Western Michigan, look for Ohio to show some determination at home Saturday where they have been brilliant all season. Toledo is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after scoring 55 points or less this season. Ohio is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons. You will be counting your chips early into the second half as Ohio gets off to a fast start and never looks back. Take Ohio and lay the points.
Bob Harvey
Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Play: Washington Capitals -186
All eyes tonight will be on Ottawa defenseman Mike Green as he looks for a spot in the NHL record books.
Green has a goal in seven straight games, and with one against the Lightning he'll break the NHL record for the longest streak for a defense man, set by Boston's Mike O'Connell in 1983-84. Whether he get’s the “biscuit in the basket” tonight is still to be determined but what isn’t in doubt is that Washington should trounce Tampa Bay.
The Capitals have had their way with the Lightning beating them seven straight times including twice this season. Florida is 2-1-0 to start a season-high six-game homestand. But before you schedule the parade and buy the confetti,consider that the two victories came over the two bottom feeders in the East: the Islanders and Thrashers.
Having the “Great 8” on the ice with you won’t hurt your chances at history either. Alexander Ovechkin is skating his way towards another MVP title. He’s leads the NHL in goals with 37 and is near the top with his 70 points. And like Green, he’s streaking as well, putting up a point in his last seven outings.
As a fan of Hockey history, I'd like to see Greenie get his goal tonight. I certainly expect his Senators to come away with another convincing victory.
Info Plays
3* on Boise State +4.5
Reasons why Boise State covers the spread Saturday:
1.) The Broncos’ home-court advantage is the real deal. Not even 24-1 Utah State will be able to run over Boise State Saturday. We are predicting an upset here as Boise State is 11-1 at home this season. Utah State did already beat the Broncos by 14 points at home back on January 17th of this year, but it won’t come nearly as easy on the road against a team that has suffered only 1 home loss all season.
2.) Utah State is coming off a hard-fought 9-point win at Idaho just two nights ago on Thursday, so the fatigue factor will play a big part in Boise State pulling off the upset. The Broncos last played on Monday, so they’ve had 4 days to rest up for this game compared to Utah State’s 1 day of rest. That extra 4 days will pay dividends, as Boise State has had more time to game-plan for Utah State and correct what they did wrong in the first meeting.
3.) Trends favoring Boise State. Utah State is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5 points. Meanwhile, Boise State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Boise is 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. The Broncos will put together their most impressive win of the season Saturday as they hand Utah State only their 2nd loss of year. Bet Boise State at home.
Rob Vinciletti
Kentucky vs. Arkansas
Play: Kentucky -4½
On Saturday afternoon the free play is on Kentucky.Game 509 at 1pm eastern.They Wilcats have big edges in both shooting and defending.They are 12-6 vs winning teams this year.Arky is 1-6 su and 2-4 ats in there last six vs winning teams,1-7 ats off a conference game, and will have trouble keeping up with Kentucky here.