Homedawg
3 Units Georgia Tech -3.5
Think this is a good match up for Tech. They catch NC ST coming in off an emotional win over Wake Forest, and on top of that I feel they match up favorably. Lawal, Aminu, and Peacock are the exact opposite of St's big men. They are physical bangers that aren't afraid to mix it up. Coster and McCaulley are soft. That is NC ST's main problem this season. Both Costner, and McCaulley would rather hang around the 3 point line and shoot jumpers rather than get in the paint and use their big bodies to bang. I give GT the big advantage there. GT's record may not show it, but they have actually improved a great deal since the beginning of the season. They are always competitive at home, and have a great opportunity to pick up another win. Another area of concern for NC ST is their shaky point guard situation. They really don't have one. I am not going to count Javi Gonzalez as a point guard because imo he is the worst D1 basketball player on scholarship. Hewitt may be a little more intense with his full court press Saturday, and try to force the turnover prone Pack into some unforced errors. I expect the Tech big men to have a big day, and pick up an easy win. I will be very surprised if they don't get this one. GT by 10+ 3 Units (524) Bradley -5.5 -110 Usually don't like laying this many points, but I think this matchup can justify so. Evansville is basically a 1 man team. Shy Ely has been left to carry most of the load, as his back court mate Jason Holsinger has been in a huge slump. The usually reliable Holsinger is only shooting 35.5% from the field, and 31.1% from 3. Both numbers are way down form his first 3 years. With Jason struggling so much defenses are able to focus their attention on Ely. Bradley especially matches up well with the Aces because they have an abundance of quick, athletic guards that they can throw at Ely throughout the game. Evansville usually struggles against teams that can match them in the back court, and Bradley can certainly do just that. And all this isn't even touching on Evansville's road woes. The Aces have been blasted numerous times on the road this season. They have never been a good road team, and this year is more of the same. You also have to question if they aren't left a little burned out and demoralized after they poured all of their energy into a late 2nd half rally at Illinois St Thursday. They were down 23 int he 2nd half when they went on a tear to tie the game only to eventually fall by 2 points. One may question if that loss was a breaking point for their season, but it certainly doesn't help. As for Bradley they have lost 4 straight coming into this game, but all 4 wins are justifiable. They lot by 4 at illinois st, and had 2 other road losses to Drake, and Creighton, mixed in with a home loss to red hot N. Iowa. All of those match ups were more difficult for what is on deck Saturday. Bradley always has a strong home court advantage at Carver Arena, and they should be able to hold court Saturday. Evansville just can't match Bradley's depth at guard. Bradley by 10+ 3 Units (545) Kansas -1 -110 3 Units (561) Virginia Tech +4 -110 As much criticism Gary Williams has received I actually think he has over achieved this season. The personnel on this team plain and simple just isn't that good. VT will have much more fire power in this game, and plays just as good on defense. The key to the game will be Jeff Allen. I really don't think Maryland has much of an answer for him in the paint. He should be able to have his way down low, and control the glass. VT also has more firepower on the perimeter with Vassallo and Delaney. One of the more pleasant surprises in the acc may be the developement of Malcolm Delaney. He isn't the player who will back down to Vaszquez, and will give it right back to him. While VT has no problems scoring with 3 legit scorig threats Maryland has the lowest scoring average in the ACC with a 66ppg average. Maryland has picked up a few wins, and I think are becoming slightly over valued b/c of those. I have this game at a pk em so I will gladly take the points in a game I think will win straight up.(583) Miami Oh/W. Michigan Under 119 -110 3 Units (637) Ohio St/Wisconsin Under 123 -110 With Wisconsin regaining old defensive form I think it's time to back an under I think is set 6 points too high. The proof to Wisconsin's defensive improvements lie in the numbers. Here are their last 3 games and the points they allowed; Ilinois 50, Penn St 44, Iowa 52. Now Ohio St is no offensive fire power so I expect more of the same. Plus these teams have played 3 consecutive under games. In the past 3 meetings neither of the teams have shot above 44%, and 3 of the times they were held under 37%. There really isn't going to be much explosiveness on the court. I expect your typical Big 10 slugfest (or is it pillow fight?) 3 Units (634) Boise St +4 -110 I will gladly take 4 points with a team that is 11-1 at home this year. Boise has always been strong at home where they shoot the ball close to 50% from the field. Utah St is known for their efficient offense, but their road fg% is actually less than Boise's home fg%, just a little food for thought. Anyways I think Utah St is starting to become a little over valued because of their gaudy 24-1 record. To be honest there really isn't much to pick apart on the Aggies. They are a very sound team. Nothing flashy, but they get the job done. However there is no way they should be favored over Boise on their court. The Bronco's have played 4 straight road games, so they will be extra eager to play their first home game since January 24th. Boise has been playing very efficient ball themselves,and match up pretty well with Utah St. This is another game I see as a toss up so will gladly take the points in a game I expect to win straight up. 3 Units(657) Portland +9 -110 9 points from a team they just beat by 18 just a week ago? I will take that thank you. St. Mary's still doesn;t have Mills back in the lineup so I don't see what the difference will be? In that game Portland pretty much handled them from the opening tip. They took advantage of no Mills, and most importantly kept the battle in the paint to bascially a stale mate. The rebounding battle was even, and neither Sanhan or Simpson really got off. In fact both Simpson's and Samhan's production has dropped since Mills got hurt, which shows just how important he is to this team. Samhan particularly struggled last game against Gonzaga,and against Portland. The Pilots actually have better offensive statistics overall anyways. They shoot it 46.3% from the floor and an amazing 41.4% from 3, compared to St. Mary's 44.3% from the floor, and 33.8% from 3. Portland's ability to shoot the 3 so consistently can keep them in games vs practically anybody, and when they are on can blow out anybody. In their last meeting Portland was able to shoot 59.3% where St. Mary's was limited to 39.6%. I have seen St Mary's play a few times since Mills went down . This offense is no where near as efficient as it was with him playing. From the 2nd half of the Zaga game where the injury occurred to Thursday's game against Zaga they haven't improved at all. In the 4 games since his injury they have won only 1 game against lowly San Francisco. They blew a halftime lead against the Zags, got beat by 18 against Portland, lost by 18 against Santa Clara, beat SF, and then lost again to Zaga at home. This is a very good Portland team, who will be coming in with the confidence that they already beat this team. Ravio went off for 27 in the first meeting, and STM hasn't picked up an answer to him since then. I expect another close game, and wouldn't be surprised to see them pull out the win.(660) Hawii +2.5 -110 3 Units (529) Old Dominion -1 -110 3 Units (529) ODU/VCU Under 130.5 -110 563) Wake Forest/Florida St Under 143 -110 This is way too many points for a game involving Florida St. Any time this team meets a top level opponent the games have been low scoring. FSU doesn't have explosive scorers, other than Douglas, so they rely on strong defense to keep games close. They have the top shelf athletes that allow them to do so. Here's a quick glance at both teams defensive numbers on the season. FSU fg def 37.9%. 3pt % 31.2%. WF fg% def 37.8 3pt % def 28.7%. Throw in the fact FSU only shoots 42.8% from the floor themselves, and 33.3% from 3 and the numbers are telling us this will be a low scoring battle. If the numbers don't tell the truth then the match ups will. FSU has plenty of big bodies to throw at Wake's big, ahtletic front line. There are not many teams in the country that can match up with them, but I think FSU can. If their performance on the glass against Pitt, one of the best rebounding teams in the country, then maybe their job on Clemson did? FSU has held both UNC, and Duke under 40% from the field this season, and could be able to a struggling Wake Forest team to that list. I am expecting to see a Clemson type 66-61 score for a final here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Florida -10 over GEORGIA
The Gators are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, while the 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgia has been downright awful this year as they are just 9-15 overall and 0-9 in the SEC. The Bulldogs have been outscored in league play by 15.4 ppg, including being outscored by 14 ppg in their SEC home games. The Dawgs have put up just 64.8 ppg overall (246th in nation) and just 58.7 ppg in SEC play. Now the Gator defense isn't what it once was but they still allow just 66.7 ppg overalland 43.3 % shooting. The Georgia defense comes in allowing just 68 ppg overall on 42.4% shooting, but in SEC play those numbers ballon to 74.1 ppg and 46.1% shooting. Not good when facing the 22nd ranked scoring offense in the nation. Florida comes in averaging 78.8 ppg on 48.8% shooting (11th), including scoring 77.4 ppg and shooting 47% from the floor in their SEC games. Geogia just doesn't matchup well with any team in the SEC nd I don't see them being able to stay with a very solid Florida team for more than the first 5 minutes. This game should be a rout.
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas -11 over COLORADO
1 UNIT PLAYS
Georgetown +4.5 over SYRACUSE
Florida State +8.5 OVER WAKE FOREST
Tom Freese
Creighton at Southern Illinois
Creighton is 8-2 ATS their last 10 road games and they are 4-0 ATS off a straight up win. The Blue Jays are 7-2 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or less points and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Conference games. Southern Illinois is 6-15-1 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage over 60% and they are 4-9 ATS their last 13 games as underdogs. The Salukis are 1-4-1 vs. teams with a winning road record and they are 1-4 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Blue Jays. PLAY ON CREIGHTON -
Brian Hansen
Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is coming off a 1-0 road loss to St. Louis but I look for it to get back on track this evening as it takes on the Stars, who are themselves coming off a 2-1 home victory last night over the visiting Vancouver Canucks. Look for Dallas to be sluggish this evening, and for CHICAGO to improve to 14-7 when playing against a team with a losing record; great value!
Marc Lawrence
Utah St. at Boise St.
Prediction: Boise St.
The Conference Bear (Utah State) takes on a Conference Cub (Boise State) Saturday night at the Taco Bell Arena where the Aggies battle the Broncos in Boise. These same two squads squared off in Las Cruces earlier this year where USU emerged victorious, 79-65, as 13.5-points favorites. The Broncos have quietly compiled a sterling 34-8 SU mark at home with only 4 losses by more than 4 points. Boise’s 14-7 ATS mark as home dogs of 6 or less points this decade has seen the Broncos win eleven of those contests straight-up on this court. Given Boise’s state of urgency (tied with Nevada for 2nd place in the WAC) along with Utah State’s comfy lead atop the standings, look for the Cub to take a bite of the Bear here tonight.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
OTT +145 vs MIN
The Senators are hot right now and might be worth a look here as a big dog. The Wild have been very inconsistent and are hanging their heads a bit after a loss to the Wild in their most recent game. As for the Senators, they've started to turn things around as they've adjusted to the coaching change and they are riding here after another big win in their most recent game. The Senators won big (5-2) at Philly on Thursday and they bring a ton of momentum with them into Minnesota on Saturday night. Take a look at Ottawa as a potential investment opportunity for Saturday.
Drew Gordon
Minnesota at PENN STATE -2'
On paper this isn't the best match up for the Nittany Lions, who've lost 3 in a row SUATS, and have not beaten this Golden Gophers team since Janaury of 2004. However, this game is not being played on paper, its on the Hardwood, and fact of the matter is this is a solid spot to back this Penn State team and here's why:
First, we've seen this Minnesota team struggle on the Big Ten trail, going 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a conference visitor, with the only win over that span coming against lowly Indiana! Not only that, but Minny also had trouble dispatching the Hoosiers at Williams Arena 4 days ago, winning 62-54, but failing to cover as 17-point home favs. All this tells me the Gophers may be stumbling a bit, and this is not the spot to be coming in half-cocked.
Second, the Lions are desperate for a win having lost their last 3 games, and I can't think of any better spot that today to snap their slump. The Lions have a real axe to grind in this contest, having lost their last 8 meetings with Minny. While it can be argued that both teams are struggling, there's no doubt its a hell of a lot easier to break out of your funk at home.
Finally, the big mismatch here is the sputtering Gophers offense (58 ppg on 39% shooting L5 games) versus a Penn State defense that has been rock-solid at home this season, allowing 57 ppg on 41% shooting. In other words, DO NOT expect the Gophers offensive woes to end this afternoon, as they're walking into the Bryce Jordan Center against a very pissed off pride of Nittany Lions! In the end, Penn State snaps their losing streak, taking advantage of a young Gophers team thats proven plenty vulnerable on the Big Ten trail this season.
Take Penn State over Minnesota in this college hoops match up.
3♦ PENN STATE
Matt Fargo
Western Kentucky vs. Troy
Play: Western Kentucky
Troy is red hot with nine straight victories and that helps us immensely here. With first place on the line in the SBC East, Western Kentucky gets excellent line value and that is usually not the case with the Hilltoppers who are still the class of this conference unless some other team can prove otherwise. Western Kentucky was favored by 12 points in the first meeting this season on New Year’s Day and it won that game by 23 points. While Troy has improved, the Hilltoppers have not fallen back and as a matter of fact they are 10-3 in 2009 while Troy is 11-2 so the line swing for this meeting is simply too much. Even giving four points on both sides for home court advantage, the Hilltoppers should still be favored by four points so we will gladly take them at an even number on Saturday. Western Kentucky is ranked 77 spots higher while playing a tougher schedule in the process. Both of the Hilltoppers conference losses came on the road but they were by a combined six points. They have proven they can win on the road against the elite following an early season win at Louisville and I hardly consider Troy as part of an elite group. It is revenge time for Troy tonight and the short price is helping sway the public that way as well. The nine consecutive wins do not hurt either. The problem is that Troy does not match up well here and the Trojans simply are not the better team and motivational revenge can only go so far. The nine-game winning streak is impressive no doubt as is the huge win at Arkansas-Little Rock and the last win at home against Middle Tennessee but other than that, there were no good wins during this run as the other seven victories came against teams that are all .500 or worse in the Sun Belt Conference. Prior to this winning streak, the Trojans went on a 4-7 run and that included some blowout losses and no quality wins. Troy has peaked at the right time but it still is not going to be enough. Western Kentucky has won 11-straight games when scoring 80 or more points including a 3-0 mark this season and with this game expected to be a high-scoring affair, it favors the Hilltoppers. That 3-0 mark includes a win against Troy when Western Kentucky put up 99 points which was easily a season high. The Trojans can no doubt score but their problem is defense as they are allowing 45.2 percent shooting including 46.4 percent at home. As far as efficiency numbers are concerned, Western Kentucky has a 108.6 rating on offense compared to 106.5 for the Trojans. Defensively, the Hilltoppers are at 104.5 while Troy is at 108.8 so Western Kentucky has the edge on both ends and that is even heightened more due to the strength of schedules played. This is obviously a big matchup and one enormous edge for the Hilltoppers is that they have been in this position before while this could be considered one of Troy’s biggest games ever. Experience in these situations can not be more important and the young Trojans will be at a big disadvantage in that regard. Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two years when playing teams that are winning between 60 and 80 percent of their games. Troy meanwhile is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a win as an underdog. You have to give the Trojans credit as they were not predicted to be in this position but the run ends on Saturday against the far superior Hilltoppers. 3* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Kansas -1
The Wildcats are rolling, but KU is one obstacle I don't see them conquering today. KU won the first meeting by 16 points and K-State has been the Jayhawks home away from home as they are 10-1 SU and ATS in their last 11 there. This young Jayhawks team still is not getting the respect it has earned from odds makers and is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 because of it. A tight loss at Mizzou in its last games gives Kansas the focus it needs here to come away with a win. Kansas is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Take the Jayhawks.
Jrtips
KANSAS vs. K. STATE
This is just not another game for both teams and last year kansas St. upset the Jayhwaks but this year’s game is even more critical. After an 0-4 start in conference, the Kansas St Wildcats (17-7, 6-4) have shocked everyone to win six in a row and they are probably the hottest team in the conference. A victory over Kansas would put them into contention for a first-division Big 12 finish.The defending national champion Jayhawks (19-5, 8-1) have won eight of their last nine. Cole Aldrich, the 6-foot-11 sophomore, is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double and could give Kansas an advantage over the Wildcats inside and junior guard Sherron Collins, averaging a team-high 17.6 points, will be mixing it up on the perimeter with Kansas State guards Fred Brown, Jacob Pullen and Clemente. For K State,Clemente is averaging 14.3 points, while Pullen is averaging 13.6 and leads Kansas State with 40 steals. Last month in their first meeting of the year, Collins scored 24 points and freshman Tyshawn Taylor scored 20 as the Jayhawks got off to an 18-0 lead at home and cruised past Kansas State 87-71 but this game is at K. State where its is going to be crazy and loud which will have the Widcats playing on Top of their game. Kansas has lost all but two of their last 39 meetings with their archrivals. Both teams will have trouble stopping each other in this type of environment and this game will come down to the wire.
TAKE OVER 142
Lenny Del Genio
Memphis at Southern Miss
You just can't make these lines high enough for Memphis in C-USA action. They have won 51 straight in league play, including a three-game season sweep of tonight's opponent Southern Miss last year. The Tigers are one of those teams that you should not be afraid to lay double-digits with as they are 12-4 ATS this season when laying 10 points or more.
Play on: Memphis
VEGAS EXPERTS
Ole Miss at LSU
We really like this LSU team as they are 7-1 ATS in conference play and the best team in the SEC. Look for them to roll tonight vs. Ole Miss, who lost by 32 to this same Tigers team last month. When the teams met here in Baton Rouge last season, the Rebels lost by 20. Sense a pattern here? Ole Miss gives up 78 points per game on the road, LSU gives up just 60 PPG at home.
Play on: Butler
Vernon Croy
Georgetown vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -4.5
At 12:00 ET Saturday take Syracuse as my NCAAB Free Play. The Orangemen are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 games but they have been very dominant at home this season. The Orangemen's last home game was a 7 point win over the Mountaineers as a 1 point dog and we just saw last night how good West Virginia is as they cashed for my NCAAB Slam Dunk of the Week in a rout over Villanova. The Hoyas are just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a loss against a conference rival and they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Georgetown is just 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after a loss and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Syracuse. The Hoyas are just 3-6 SU on the road this season while averaging just 68.7 ppg while Syracuse is 14-2 SU at home while averaging 81.5 ppg and out-scoring their opponents by an average of 14.5 ppg. The Orangemen have played great defensively at home this season with their opponents shooting just 38.1% against them while Syracuse is shooting 49.9% as a team at home. Take Syracuse
Tony Karpinski
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -5.5
There is no way Ohio State is going into Madison and coming out with a win or a cover. The Badgers have won five straight at home and seven of the last 10 overall against the Buckeyes.
Wisconsin seems to have righted the ship with three straight victories, both SU and ATS. They were in the midst of a six-game losing streak when they scored a much-needed victory over Illinois back on Feb. 5, winning 63-50 as a four-point favorite.
The Badgers have gotten the kinks out and seem to be back to normal, playing stingy defense and having quality offensive possessions. Lay the chalk and play Wisconsin at home behind their 3-pt shooting and crowd bring home the ATS bacon in this one.
Dennis Hill
Marshall vs. UTEP
Play: UTEP -12.5
Simply put Marshall doesn't have the offense to stay with UTEP. Plus they are missing star player Tyler Wilkerson, which will only deplete their offense even further. Look for a 15 point win by UTEP tonight.