Tom Freese
Nevada at Hawaii
Hawaii is 17-4 ATS as underdogs of 6.5 or less points and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games overall. The Warriors are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games vs. winning teams. Nevada is 7-20 ATS off a straight up win and they are 4-10 ATS their last 14 games. The Wolfpack are 1-7 ATS their last 8 Saturday games and they are 0-4 ATS off an ATS loss. PLAY ON HAWAII +
Pregame.com (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
UCLA (-4, O/U 143): The Bruins will try to bounce back from a tough 74-67 loss at Arizona State on Thursday after winning their previous four games by an average of 22.8 points per game. “Obviously, a very bitter, disappointing loss against a very good team,” said UCLA head coach Ben Howland. The Bruins did not get much of a challenge in the first meeting with Arizona back on January 15th, pulling off an easy 83-60 victory. In fact, UCLA has won eight straight meetings with the Wildcats.
PROJECTED SCORE: 77
The OVER is 12-4 in UCLA's last 16 Saturday games.
Arizona: The Wildcats bring a six-game winning streak into this meeting with UCLA and seem to be making their annual push for an NCAA tournament berth. They are 14-1 when scoring at least 67 points this season and have made the Big Dance each of the last 25 years - the longest streak of any team in the country. “I just see our team getting better every day,” Arizona interim head coach Russ Pennell said. “We come out and play now, we’re playing with a lot of confidence. The guys enjoy each other.”
PROJECTED SCORE: 73
The OVER is 12-2 in Arizona's last 14 Saturday games.
=======================================
My system picks:
I am on a 5-1 run with my secret system picks.
Yesterdays pick won by long shot again.
Todays pick is Florida -7 (I am buying three points)
WUNDERDOG
Colorado State at U N L V
Pick: Colorado State +17
The Runnin' Rebels aren't doing much running as they have scored in the 70s or less in 17 of their last 18 games. Outside of Air Force, who has yet to sniff a win in conference action, the Rebs' have just one game all season where they have won by more than this, and that was against Texas Pan American way back in mid-November. Colorado State already took UNLV to the buzzer on their court, so a 20-point turnaround, especially based on what the Rebs' have done this year, sure doesn't seem to fit the bill. I'll grab the Rams and the bushel of points in this one.
Michael Alexander
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Play:Kansas -1
The Kansas Jayhawks take to the road today for the second of back to back conference games when they face off against the Kansas State Wildcats. Kansas looks to rebound off it's first Conference loss of the year, losing to Missouri 62-60. The Jayhawks have owned the Cats posting a 20-9 ATS mark including 10-1 when playing in Manhattan. Thus far Kansas has dominated the Big-12 going 8-1 both SU and ATS and have outscored their opponents 73 to 62.
Kansas State comes into this one off a six game winning streak while looking to avenge the drubbing that they took last month when the met the Jayhawks in Lawrence. The Wildcats have dominated at home this season going 12-2 SU. When facing conference opponents they are 6-4 SU but only 5-5 ATS. In their recent winning streak Kansas State has averaged 77.6 points per game but have actually been outscored in conference play 70 to 71.
Supporting Angles: KANSAS is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
It's tough to take a road team in Conference play versus a home team looking for revenge, but the Jayhawks simply have too much for Kansas State to control. I'm taking Kansas in this one.
John Ryan
Florida vs. Georgia
Play:Georgia +10
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Georgia as they host Florida slated to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that Georgia will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Georgia in a strong role noting they are 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. Key to this game will be to monitor Georgia turnovers. They have done a good job of taking care of the ball and have had 20 or more turnovers in 4 of the past 6 games. yet, all, but one of these games were on the road in hostile SEC venues. in the lone home game against LSU they had just 14 turnovers. Many times with a losing team like Georgia they simply try too hard to perform to compete against a superior opponent. With clearly nothing on the line for them, the Bulldogs can feed off the home support and make Florida work very hard for their 20th win. Take Georgia.
Charlie Scott
Creighton vs. So Illinois
Play: Creighton -3
Kansas is coming off a 2 point loss to Missouri on Big Monday, a game in which Kansas was winning most of the game. Expect Kansas to be focused and bounce back with a win today. Earlier this season, when these two teams played at Kansas, Kansas won 87-81. Although Kansas st has been hot lately, Kansas is the better team, better Coached, and we just need them to win !
Kansas vs. Kansas State
Play: Kansas -1
Kansas is coming off a 2 point loss to Missouri on Big Monday, a game in which Kansas was winning most of the game. Expect Kansas to be focused and bounce back with a win today. Earlier this season, when these two teams played at Kansas, Kansas won 87-81. Although Kansas st has been hot lately, Kansas is the better team, better Coached, and we just need them to win !
Tom Stryker
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma State
Play:Oklahoma State -10
Don't be fooled by Oklahoma State's 14-9 SU overall record. The Cowboys have played the toughest schedule in the Big 12 (and ranked fourth nationally) and this 13-11 SU Iowa State team is a group that OSU can dominate.
Historically speaking, this is a sweet spot for head coach Travis Ford's 'Boys. Dating back to the 1990-91 season, the host in this series is a sparkling 19-5 SU and 17-7 ATS. At home in Gallagher-Iba Arena, OSU has won 14 straight over ISU including its last 12 by an average of 13.8 points per game.
If you want to beat the Cyclones, just make sure that Iowa State is on the road. As a guest, ISU is a dismal 17-67 SU in its last 84 battles. Even worse, on foreign courts coming off a SU and ATS victory, the Cyclones are a horrendous 5-20 SU and 8-16-1 ATS!
Oklahoma State hasn't dropped three consecutive games all season long. Rest assured, off a pair of double-digit road losses to Kansas and Texas, the Cowboys will be ready to go this afternoon. Take Oklahoma State.
Ted Sevransky
Mississippi State @ Auburn
PICK: Mississippi State
Mississippi State head coach Rick Stansbury made the decision to play small ball back in December. Stansbury puts as many as four guards on the floor at the same time to complement low post monster Jarvis Varnado, who mans the low post by himself -- 4.9 blocks per game, 9.6 rebounds and 12.3 points on 60% shooting. Since that time, the Bulldogs have been playing some really nasty defense, particularly when it comes to forcing turnovers and defending opponents on the perimeter The numbers don’t lie – Mississippi State has held opponents to an 0.68 assist-to-turnover ratio for the season, and held them under 33% shooting from three point range. The assist-to-turnover numbers are even better in SEC play, forcing more than 16 turnovers per game.
The Bulldogs covered the spread by 20 in their straight up win at Kentucky. They’ve also earned SU road wins in SEC play at Arkansas and Georgia. Auburn has already lost at Beard-Eaves Coliseum twice in four SEC home games. Their shooting has been ice cold over the last month, under 40% from the floor, and the Tigers lack of size is killing them in the rebounding department as well. There’s a class difference between these two teams not reflected in the pointspread, as the betting marketplace expects some sort of a hangover from Mississippi State following their double OT loss on Wednesday night. I don’t expect that hangover at all. 2* Take Mississippi State.
LARRY NESS
Marshall @ UTEP
PICK: UTEP
UTEP has been a disappointment to me, as I expected the Miners to have a big season (25 wins-plus). A deep run into the NIT or CBI could still allow them a chance at that number but I thought this team would be NCAA-bound. Jackson (22.6-5.7) is an explosive scorer in the backcourt and guard Culpepper (18.7) provides excellent scoring off the bench. UTEP has outstanding height in 7-0 Memphis transfer Cooper (7.6-4.4), 6-11 freshman Moultrie (8.4-7.3) and 6-11 sophomore Britten (4.3-2.7) but all have underachieved. That being said, Marshall does not present much of a test in tonight's game. The Thundering Herd don't 'thunder' very often away from home (just 1-8 SU) and with the 6-8 Wilkerson (10.4-6.2) now out for the season, Marshall's frontcourt consists of the 6-6 Humphrey (11.0-4.6) and the 6-6 Baines (7.5-4.50. Five guards see playing time, including Merthie (4.4) and Williams (1.3), who contribute little. Lutz (11.0), Pitts (9.8-3.8 APG) and Johnson (9.8) can hardly be expected to trade points withJackson and Culpepper, while UTEP's huge frontline can't possibly struggle vs Marshall's 6-6 duo. Lay the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
Pittsburgh is coming off of a 2-1 shootout win over San Jose in their last game. That said, one can't really blame them if they come out a little flat here. That means weaker defense and more openings for a talented Maple Leafs offense to operate in. The problem for Toronto is they can't stop opponents from scoring. Their last game was a 6-4 loss and this was nothing unusual for a Leafs game. Even with a lofty total on this game the over might be worth a look. Consider the over in Toronto for a small investment on Saturday night.