Mike Wynn Sports
Ohio St @ Wisconsin
Big game for both these teams Saturday as both teams have much to play for. Ohio St at 17-5 overall and 7-4 in conference would definitely be an NCAA team at this point, but a loss here would make thing a little hairy with the tough conference schedule to close out season. Wisconsin at 15-10 overall and 6-6 in conference are in absolute win mode these days if they want to get a bid. Wisconsin has tough road tests at Minnesota and Michigan St left on the schedule but the rest is very winnable. Badgers must win 5 of their last 7 and make a decent run in the Big10 tournament to get their 12th NCAA tournament bid in a row. So let’s take a look at both these teams and we’ll start with the visiting Buckeyes of Ohio St.
Thad Matta has his team in position for an NCAA tournament bid at 17-5 this season, but this team is just 2-3 on the road in the Big10 this season. Buckeyes will need a big game out of Evan Turner their leading scorer at 17 points per contest. Turner leads a relatively young Ohio St squad that struggles with consistency night and night out, especially on the road. Buckeyes top 3 scorers consist of 2 sophomores and a freshmen, and the Buckeyes have no seniors on this team. Ohio St road wins over Michigan & Indiana aren’t exactly impressive and this is going to be a tough test at the Kohl Center Saturday night where the Badgers have been dominant in recent years under Bo Ryan. A loss Saturday won’t kill Ohio St’s tournament hopes but a win would be a big big boost.
Wisconsin as I mentioned early is in must win mode here as they’ve been the last 3 games. Badgers dropped a Bo Ryan worst 6 straight games prior to winning their last 3 and it’s all started on the defensive end for the Badgers. In the 6 losses Wisconsin was giving up around 50% from the floor and in the last 3 games they’ve tightened the defense and allowed 50, 44, and 52 points. Also helping Wisconsin lately has been the outside shooting from Bohannon, who’s been stroking it from behind the arc. Wisconsin a team that really lacks a star on the floor, but they’re a veteran group that plays defense well and takes care of the ball. Badgers only have 3 players averaging double digits led by senior Marcus Landry’s 12.8 per contest and Bo Ryan has a pretty nice rotation with 8 guys averaging double digit minutes per game.
Bottom line here Saturday is that Wisconsin needs this one more than Ohio St and with a line right around 4 or 5 I’ll be willing to lay it. Wisconsin also gets the advantage of have the ESPN Game Day crew on campus Saturday so expect an extra vocal crowd for this Saturday night national TV affair. Badgers have won 5 straight against the Buckeyes at the Kohl Center and we’ll look for another big Badger win in this one tonight.
Mydreambet
Soccer Free Pick
League: Alemanha - Bundesliga
Game: Bayern Munique vs FC Koln
Bet: Bayern Munique
In the last round the team of Bayern Munich lost the opportunities to climb to 1st place in the Bundesliga to miss trip to Hertha. The FC Koln has added one more tie thus remaining in the 11th position of the Bundesliga.
The Bayern Munich lost the last game great opportunities to rise to leadership of the Bundesliga to lose, facing the surpreentemente by Hertha 2:1 although they controlled much of the meeting, the injury to Tony Luka has brought problems to the team and left it escape the meeting. As we know the team of Bayern is one of the strongest of the Bundesliga and is a perennial candidate for the title with one of the strongest teams from across Europe. This season has not been fantastic and the problems that the team has had to do to win games that occupy the 4th position with a total of 38 points, but there are only 2 points of the leader who is Hertha. The Bayern Munich is a very strong team playing at home where sum 6 wins in 9 games, 2 draws and only 1 defeat.
FC Koln's team is conducting a quiet championship occupying the 11th position of the Bundesliga. Since it began the year 2009 this team did not win any game, and has not been defeated, sum 3 draws in the last 3 games. Playing away from home to FC Koln has a total of 10 game where he won 4, draw 1 and was defeated by 5 times. This is a team that their main objective is the maintenance, and this Sabada expects many difficulties in the difficult trip to Bayern Munich team.
For this game the home team, Bayern Munich is the favorite and all that ought to several reasons in which the advantage is clearly in Bayern, they are one of the leading candidates for the title with the team stronger this season Bayern Munich FC Koln and now they went and the result was a clear victory for the team by 0:3 in B. Munich trip to Koln which shows their total superiority. This afternoon the B. Munich play at home so could not pass up this excellent opportunities to approach the top of the Bundesliga table.
Nelly
Florida - over Vanderbilt
There is currently a four-way tie on top of the SEC East and that was not enough of an incentive for the Gators, they should realize that despite starting the season 16-2 they are probably on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble at the moment. Florida has lost four SEC games but each loss came on the road and collectively was decided by a total of just ten points. The Gators could still be the best team in this league and they won by 25 at Vanderbilt earlier this season. Florida is a perfect 15-0 S/U at home this season and they catch Vanderbilt in a terrible spot. Beating Kentucky still means an awful lot to the Commodores and on Tuesday Vanderbilt used 28 fouls on Kentucky to create 32 points from the free throw line for a huge win at home. Vanderbilt is just 1-4 S/U and ATS in SE road games this season and they could not compete with Florida the first time these teams met this season, falling behind by 19 in the first half. This is a critical game for the Gators and as the schedule now only contains must-win games.
Cajun Sports
Florida State vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Florida State +3
Cassell Coliseum will be the site of tonight’s ACC battle between the host Virginia Tech Hokies and the visiting Seminoles from Florida State University. The Hokies check in with a record of 16-9 SU and 8-12 ATS on the season which includes a record of 9-2 SU at home but an ugly 2-6 ATS record for their backers. Their last five have seen them drop three of those straight up and only cover one of the five against the number averaging 73.4 points per game but allowing 76.6 points per game. Two of those losses came on a recent two-game road swing that saw them lose to Maryland 83 to 73 and at Virginia 75 to 61 as a 1.5 point road favorite. We know that CBB teams off back-to-back road games and now play at home with a line range of pk to 2.5 are 47-69-1 ATS. FSU comes into tonight’s game off a home win over Miami 80 to 67 as a 3.5 point home favorite. FSU is 20-6 SU and 13-6 ATS on the season with a road record of 9-3 SU and 8-2 ATS averaging 67.7 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting from the field and allowing 65.8 points per game on 39 percent shooting. This is bad news for the Hokies as they are 0-8 ATS in home games versus teams that allow opponents to only shoot <=39% from the field after 15+ games since 1997. FSU is 10-2 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season, 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 12-3 ATS their last 15 when installed as an underdog. While the Hokies struggle in the role of favorite posting a record of 2-7 ATS their last nine laying chalk. When comparing common opponents that each have faced this season we see FSU is 8-3 SU and 6-3 ATS with the Hokies going 6-4 SU and only 2-7 ATS. FSU averaged 69.4 points per game and allowed 65.3 points per game while the Hokies averaged 74.6 points per game but allowed 76.6 points per game in those contests. We have an all systems go on the Seminoles tonight in Blacksburg as the Noles shock the Hokies and get the straight up win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) FSU Seminoles 68 Virginia Tech Hokies 65
Jimmy The Moose
Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Detroit Red Wings
Detroit comes into this one playing well while the Wild are struggling. The Red Wings are 40-17 in their last 57 games vs. a Western Conference opponent. Detroit is 67-30 in their last 97 games overall. The Red Wings are facing a Wild team that they have success against. Minnesota has dropped their last 3 games. In their last 8 games vs. a Central Division opponent the Wild are 1-7. Minnesota is 6-20-3 in the last 29 meetings with Detroit. The Wings are 7-1 in their last 8 trips to Minnesota. Play on the Detroit Red Wings -.
Matt Fargo
Northern Iowa @ Siena
PICK: Siena
We get some great matchups on Saturday with all of the Bracket Buster games and this is one of those. Northern Iowa got off to a solid start in the Missouri Valley but it is now starting to come back to the pack with losses in two of its last three games. After starting the season 7-0 in MVC road games, the Panthers dropped their first on Saturday at Wichita St. and they saw their lead cut to just one game over Creighton. After playing Drake on Wednesday, Northern Iowa is at Illinois St. on Tuesday who is just two games back so this trip to Albany could not have come at a worse time. Northern Iowa went 0-3 in non-conference road games and this is far from any easy trip. Siena made a name for itself last year in the tournament as it smacked Vanderbilt. The Saints brought nearly everyone back this season and they are once again going to be a force come March. They are 15-1 in the conference and lead the MAAC by two and a half games over Niagara. They have a game against the Purple Eagles up next but that game is not until Friday and the situation is different than that of the Panthers especially that this game is at home. Siena is perfect at home this season and it will no doubt be looking to keep that intact. This is bigger game for the Saints as they are from a much smaller conference and need to prove some things. These games often come down to which team wants it more and you have to give that to Siena especially based on the past. They did so last season in the Bracket Buster when they went to Boise St. and throttled the Broncos by 23 points. Northern Iowa meanwhile lost to Illinois-Chicago at home last year in its Bracket Buster game. The Saints have significant edges in efficiency numbers in this matchup. Offensive efficiency shows the teams right at dead even but Siena has an edge on the defensive side as it has a rating of 96.5 which is 2nd in the MAAC and 84th in the country. Northern Iowa is near the bottom in that category in the Missouri Valley as it has a rating of 100.6. The key for the Saints is turnovers as they are forcing turnovers at a 23 percent slip which is 55th best in the nation. One can argue that it plays in a weak conference but the Saints have played a rather tough schedule that is ranked 113th in the nation, which is stringer than that of the Panthers. As far as forcing turnovers, Northern Iowa is dead last in the MVC at 17.7 percent which is also 319th in the nation. It isn’t going to force many in this matchup as Siena turns it over only 18.8 percent of the time which is 2nd in the conference and 68th in the country. That has led to a solid 1.11 assist/turnover ratio. Northern Iowa is right on pace with that but again, the defense of the Saints will cause havoc. The home team gets the call here and we will see some added value based on the success that Northern Iowa is having. 3* Siena Saints
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play in college basketball, we’ll take California minus the points at Oregon State in Pac-10 play.
Very quietly, the Golden Bears have climbed into the thick of the Pac-10 race, as they’re in a three-way tie for second place, just one game behind Washington. Since a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS slump, Cal has ripped off five straight wins and covers, all of them very impressive, including an 86-71 win over aforementioned Washington and Thursday’s 78-60 rout of Oregon as a 5½-point road chalk.
As for Oregon State, it is definitely playing better ball and is coming off consecutive wins and covers over Stanford (66-54 at home) and Washington State (54-52 on the road). And since stunning Cal 69-65 as a 17½-point road underdog on Jan. 22, the Beavers have won six of nine (5-3 ATS). Still, I’m not totally sold on Oregon State like I am on Cal, and when you consider the Bears were laying 17½ points against the Beavers a month ago and are now laying only four, well, that’s the very definition of line value.
Cal also comes into this game on fire offensively, averaging 75.8 points per game on 49.5 percent shooting over its last five contests. Compare that with Oregon State, which is putting up just 54.2 ppg on 41.4 percent shooting in its last five. And while the Beavers play better defense from a ppg standpoint, Cal holds opponents to a lower shooting percentage.
Prior to losing to Oregon State a month ago, Cal had won six straight meetings in this rivalry, and they’ve won and covered in each of the last three years in Corvallis. In fact, the visitor is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the favorite has cashed in 10 of the last 14. This is a big-time revenge spot, and we’ll confidently lay the points with the superior team.
4♦ CALIFORNIA
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Oregon State Beavers at home.
I really have to give Craig Robinson a ton of credit because he has made this Oregon State program into a pretty decent squad. Over the past few seasons the Beavers were the joke of all jokes. These guys not only lost every single game but they would get pummelled by 40 or 50 on a regular basis. These guys were like a High School team trying to compete in the Pac-10. But President Obama's Brother In-Law has brought in a fresh new attitude and changed the culture in a complete 180 and now OSU is pretty solid, shockingly enough.
I am not going to say that the Beavs are a good team just yet but at 12-13 overall and a very respectable 6-8 in the conference is truly an amazing turnaround. They just fully outclassed Stanford in an outright thanks to building a 29-17 lead at the break and that came a game after the shocking outright as the 12 point dog at Washington State. This team has also won at Stanford and California, downing this same Golden Bear squad, beat a solid USC team and a quality Nebraska squad as well.
Cal has been a little better than most figured they would be this season at 20-6 overall and 9-4 in the Pac-10. Jerome Randal is really good and the Bears just won a fourth straight game easily in Eugene against Oregon's inferior team in the Ducks.
Mike Montgomery has done a very good job and sports a good team. But I will gladly roll with an Oregon State group that has covered six of eight and is feeling pretty darn good about themselves. Sign me up for this home dog!
Sports Gambling Hotline
Louisville -5 at CINCINNATI
Another comp play winner on Friday with Orlando in the NBA.
Now 11-4-2 the last 17 releases!
Granted Cincinnati is playing some competitive baskets of late, but we just don't see them stopping Louisville from running them out of their gym this Saturday afternoon.
Rick Pitino's team has responded after getting bombed 90-57 at South Bend, as the Redbirds have won and covered their last pair of games, outscoring their opponants by 45, and 18 points.
Louisville is on a 10-3 spread run their last 13 lined games, and on the road, the 'Ville is an impressive 22-7-1 their last 30 games.
The Bearcats haven't played since Valentine's Day when they were soundly controlled by Pittsburgh, so Cincy should be itching to go. Problem is, Cincinnati did spring a 58-57 upset win at Freedom Hall on new year's day 2008, so you can assume Coach Pitino will remind his troups of that loss as the 13-point chalk.
This game stays close for a spell, then the Cards extend the margin.
Play on Louisville.
3♦ LOUISVILLE
Karl Garrett
Marquette at GEORGETOWN -3
G-Man hardly convinced Georgetown's recent swoon is a thing of the past just because they beat up on South Florida on the road earlier this week, but I do think there is some value in backing the revenging Hoyas this Saturday afternoon.
Marquette handed G-Town a 94-82 lumping in Wisconsin on January 31st as the 6-point home favorite. Prior to that Golden Eagles victory, Georgetown had won the 3 previous showdowns, and had gone 2-0-1 against the spread in those wins.
The price looks right today for a play on Hoya-paranoia, as Marquette has not been up to snuff on the road of late, losing their last pair on the Big East road, as they were blasted at Villanova, and lost outright as the double-digit favorite at South Florida.
No season series sweep today, take the Hoyas.
2♦ GEORGETOWN
SPORTS ADVISORS
(21) Butler (22-4, 14-9-1 ATS) at Davidson (22-5, 11-12-1 ATS)
Davidson, which hopes to get star guard Stephen Curry back on the floor, takes on Butler in a non-conference clash as part of Bracket Busters weekend.
The Wildcats got drubbed Wednesday by The Citadel, losing 64-46 as an overwhelming 14-point home chalk, but they played without Curry, who is nursing an ankle injury suffered last weekend. It was Davidson’s lowest output of the season and only the third time all year the Wildcats had been held under 60 points. For the season, Davidson is averaging 80.2 points per game at home – relying heavily on Curry’s national-best 29 ppg average – while allowing 63.7 ppg.
The Bulldogs have dropped their last two games, both from the favorite’s role, getting stunned by Loyola-Chicago 71-67 laying 18 points at home last Sunday, then losing to Wisconsin-Milwaukee 63-60 as a 5½-point road chalk Wednesday. Despite those two setbacks, Butler is averaging 68.4 ppg in its last five outings – slightly up from its season average of 67.3 – while allowing 61.4 ppg, three points higher than its season mark (58.2).
Butler, which leads the Horizon League, is 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS on the highway this season. Davidson, in first place in the Southern Conference, is 10-2 SU on its own floor but just 4-6 ATS in lined home contests.
The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall and 0-4 following a SU loss, but they still sport positive pointspread trends of 5-1 on Saturday, 11-3 against winning teams, 7-3 on the road and 36-15-1 in non-conference action. The Wildcats are on ATS upswings of 5-0 after a double-digit home loss, 11-3 in non-conference play and 39-13-2 after a non-cover, but they’ve cashed in just two of their last 10 Saturday starts and are on a 2-5 ATS dip against winning teams.
The over for Butler is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 outside the Horizon League, 6-2 on the road and 21-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. On the flip side, the under for Davidson is on rolls of 5-0 overall, 7-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 5-0 in non-conference games, 4-0 on Saturday and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Tennessee (16-9, 10-12-1 ATS) at Kentucky (18-8, 11-9-1 ATS)
Two teams still seeking some consistency square off in a key SEC showdown when Tennessee travels to Rupp Arena to take on Kentucky.
The Volunteers pounded Georgia and Vanderbilt SU and ATS as a double-digit home chalk last week, then went to Mississippi on Wednesday and got thumped 81-65 as a 5½-point favorite, falling to 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight starts. The Vols are averaging a sturdy 79.1 ppg this season and allowing 72.4, but on the road, Tennessee is getting outscored by just under a point per game (77.1-76.4).
The Wildcats fell to Vanderbilt 77-64 as a one-point road chalk Tuesday, ending a two-game SU uptick and dropping to 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in their last six contests, all in SEC play. Kentucky has averaged 76.7 ppg and allowed 72.4 ppg for the season, but the Wildcats have been much more proficient on their home floor, putting up nearly 81 ppg at Rupp while allowing just 65.2 ppg and outshooting visitors 49.9 percent to 37.6 percent.
Kentucky is on a 5-1 ATS run in this rivalry (4-2 SU), covering in the last three clashes, including a 90-72 road rout last month as a six-point underdog. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in the last six contests at Rupp Arena, but the underdog has covered in five of the last seven.
Tennessee is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in the SEC this year, including 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road, and Kentucky is also 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in conference action, including 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS at home.
The Vols are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 2-6 on the highway, 2-5 against winning teams and 3-7 against teams with a win percentage above .600. Likewise, the Wildcats are on ATS skids of 0-4 at home, 1-5 after a SU loss and 1-5 against winning teams, but they are also on spread-covering runs of 11-4 on Saturday and 10-4 after a pointspread loss.
The under for Tennessee is on stretches of 5-1 overall (all in the SEC), 14-6 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday, and the under for Kentucky is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU loss and 9-3 after a non-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Rupp Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY and UNDER
(7) Louisville (20-5, 15-10 ATS) at Cincinnati (17-9, 10-10 ATS)
Louisville, which has bounced back nicely after a blowout loss at Notre Dame, heads to Fifth Third Arena for a Big East contest against Cincinnati.
Following their 33-point loss to the Irish, the Cardinals posted a pair of Big East routs, drubbing DePaul 99-54 Sunday as a heavy 21-point home chalk, then ripping Providence 94-76 Wednesday laying 13½ points at home. On the road this year, Louisville is averaging 65.7 ppg, nearly nine points below its season average of 74.2 ppg. Defensively, though, the Cardinals are giving up 61.7 ppg on the highway, just a tick above their season mark of 61.6.
The Bearcats had their three-game SU and ATS surge halted in an 85-69 setback at No. 4 Pittsburgh last Saturday, narrowly failing to cash as a 15½-point underdog. Cincinnati is outscoring opponents at home this season by nearly a dozen points per game (77.0-65.4), and they’re on a 4-0 SU and ATS run at home – all in Big East play – winning by an average final score of 75-65.
These schools have alternated spread-covers over the last six meetings, with Louisville going 4-2 SU, but in last season’s lone meeting, Cincinnati won 58-57 as a 13½-point road pup. In fact, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
Louisville is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the Big East, including 5-1 SU and ATS on the road. Cincinnati is 7-6 SU and ATS in conference play, including 4-2 SU and ATS at home.
The Cardinals are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 10-3 overall, 7-2 after a spread-cover, 8-3 after a SU win, 22-7-1 on the road, 40-13-2 in the Big East and 9-4 on Saturday. The Bearcats are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 starts versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, but they are otherwise on positive ATS stretches of 5-2 overall and 17-6 after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in Louisville’s last seven games and is on runs for Cincinnati of 8-1-1 at home, 9-2 on Saturday and 5-0 after a SU loss. But the under is 6-2 for the Bearcats in their last eight games against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last eight meetings overall and four of the last five contests in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
(10) Marquette (22-4, 10-10-1 ATS) at Georgetown (14-10, 7-12-1 ATS)
Georgetown, in dire need of wins if it hopes to make the NCAA Tournament, returns to the Verizon Center for a Big East matchup against Marquette.
The Hoyas earned a split of two road games in the past week, coming up just short at Syracuse 98-94 in overtime as a 3½-point underdog last Saturday, then whipping South Florida 65-40 as a 5½-point chalk Wednesday to halt a seven-game ATS freefall. Georgetown, which is just 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games, has averaged 72 ppg in its last five starts, exactly on its season average. But the Hoyas are allowing 68.6 ppg, up nearly five points on their season mark (64.0)
The Golden Eagles bounced back from a pair of SU and ATS losses with a 73-59 home win over St. John’s laying 16 points and a 79-67 home victory over Seton Hall as a 13-point chalk. However, in failing to cover both times, Marquette has now dropped four straight ATS decisions. In the last five games, it has averaged just 73.6 ppg, well off its season average of 80 ppg.
These two teams have gone 2-2-1 ATS in their five meetings since 2006, with Georgetown winning three of the five contests SU.
Georgetown is 5-8 SU and 3-10 ATS in conference action, including 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home. Marquette is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS in the Big East, including 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road.
The Hoyas are on ATS plunges of 1-7 overall (all in the Big East), 0-5-1 on Saturday, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-5 at home and 1-4-1 after a non-cover. The Golden Eagles are on a 7-3 ATS run against winning teams, but along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a pointspread loss.
The under for Georgetown is on runs of 5-2 overall, 13-6 after a spread-cover and 52-25 at home, and the under is on a 4-1 stretch for Marquette. However, the over has hit in four of the Hoyas’ last five Saturday games and is on rolls for the Golden Eagles of 15-5 on Saturday and 22-10 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(3) North Carolina (24-2, 10-14 ATS) at Maryland (16-9, 9-7-2 ATS)
Streaking North Carolina goes after its 11th straight win when it travels to College Park for an ACC clash with Maryland at the Comcast Center.
The Tar Heels held off North Carolina State 89-80 Wednesday, falling far short of covering as a heavy 19½-point home chalk as they dropped to 1-4 ATS in their last five games (all in the ACC). Carolina has averaged a whopping 90.7 ppg this season and hasn’t let off the gas recently, putting up 88.6 ppg and outscoring its opponents by nearly a dozen (76.8 ppg) in the last five games, hitting 48.3 percent from the floor, including a respectable 44.1 percent from three-point range, during this stretch.
The Terrapins got pelted at Clemson 93-64 as a 10½-point pup to slow their 3-1 SU surge (2-1 ATS). Maryland is averaging 73.6 ppg in its last five outings, up slightly on its season average of 71.8, but the Terps have also allowed 79.6 ppg in that span, more than 11 points higher than their season mark (68.1).
Maryland is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this rivalry, losing 108-91 in Chapel Hill earlier this month but covering as a 22-point ‘dog. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Terrapins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven battles in Maryland.
North Carolina is 10-2 SU and 4-8 ATS in the ACC this season, including 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. Maryland is 5-6 SU and 5-5 ATS in conference play, including 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS at home.
The Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after a non-cover, but they are on spread-covering slides of 1-6 on Saturday, 1-4 after a SU win and 4-9 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Terrapins are on a 12-4-1 ATS tear in Saturday games, but they are on ATS skids of 0-5 at home against teams with a winning road record and 0-5-1 after a SU loss of more than 20 points.
The over for Carolina is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 13-4 against winning teams and 6-2 after a SU win, and the over for Maryland is on stretches of 4-0 overall, 4-1-1 at home, 11-4 against winning teams and 38-18-1 in Saturday tilts. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 13 of the last 17 meetings overall and seven of the last nine contests in Maryland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER
Utah State (25-2, 11-8-1 ATS) at St. Mary’s (20-5, 12-8-1 ATS)
Utah State and St. Mary’s take a break from their respective conference schedules when they clash in a Bracket Buster battle at McKeon Pavilion in Northern California.
The Aggies rebounded from their second loss of the season – last Saturday’s 66-56 setback at Boise State – with Wednesday’s 78-57 rout of Cal State Bakersfield in a non-lined home game. Although Utah State failed to cover as a 4½-point favorite in Saturday’s loss at Boise State, it is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven overall and 10-2 SU on the road this season (8-2 ATS in lined road games).
St. Mary’s held off San Diego 65-61 on Thursday, but came up way short as a 13-point home chalk. The Gaels, who continue to play without leading scorer Patty Mills, have followed up a 1-4 SU slump with consecutive victories (both at home), and they’re still 6-3 ATS in their last nine contests.
Utah State knocked off U.C. Santa Barbara 72-59 in a Bracket Buster game last season, covering as a 4½-point home favorite. Meanwhile, St. Mary’s was upset in Bracket Buster action last year, falling to Kent State 65-57 as an 8½-point home favorite.
With Wednesday’s rout of Cal State Bakersfield, the Aggies improved to 13-1 in non-conference action this season (4-3 ATS in lined games), including eight consecutive wins (2-2 ATS). St. Mary’s is 11-1 in non-conference play (5-3-1 ATS), winning its last 10 in a row (5-1-1 ATS).
Utah State is on ATS streaks of 10-3 in non-conference play, 6-0 versus West Coast Conference foes, 11-2 on the road, 7-2-1 on Saturday, 19-8-1 against teams with a winning record and 11-4-1 versus opponents with a winning percentage above .500. The Gaels are on ATS runs of 5-1 in non-conference games, 4-1 at home and 4-1 versus winning teams.
For the Aggies, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 9-2 on the highway and 6-2 in non-league action. Also, the under is 7-0 in St. Mary’s last seven games after a SU victory and 21-6 in its last 27 on Saturday, but the over is 4-2 in the Gaels’ last six overall and 6-1 in their last seven against teams from the Western Athletic Conference.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Washington (19-7, 15-8-1 ATS) at USC (16-9, 11-12 ATS)
Washington will attempt to rebound from Thursday’s loss at UCLA when it makes the short trek to the Galen Center to face USC, which is looking for a marquee victory to bolster its March resume.
The Huskies fell apart in the waning moments against the Bruins on Thursday, losing 85-76 but pushing as a nine-point underdog. The loss snapped a three-game SU and ATS winning streak for Washington, which has scored less than 80 points in four of its last five games after scoring more than 80 in 12 of its previous 15 contests. Also, prior to Thursday, the winner had cashed in 11 straight Huskies games.
USC snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid – all on the road – with Thursday’s 61-51 victory over Washington State, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. The Trojans have won five straight home games (3-2 ATS) since losing their Pac-10 home opener to UCLA on Jan. 11.
Washington continues to hold down first place in the Pac-10 with a 10-4 record (8-5-1 ATS), a half-game ahead of Arizona State, UCLA and California. The Huskies are 5-3 in Pac-10 roadies (5-2-1 ATS). The Trojans are 7-6 in conference (6-7 ATS), including 5-1 at home (3-3 ATS).
The Huskies edged USC 78-73 back on Jan. 22 – snapping a two-game skid against the Trojans – but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. Washington is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings, but USC has cashed in the last three after going 1-6 ATS in the previous seven. The host is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six series clashes, and prior to last month’s matchup, the favorite had covered in eight straight games in this rivalry.
Washington is on pointspread streaks of 3-0-1 overall (all in Pac-10 play), 7-2 on the road, 4-0 on Saturday, 6-0 after a SU loss and 8-3-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. USC is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 contests on Saturday, but is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 after a spread-cover.
For Washington, the over is on stretches of 13-3 overall (3-0 last three), 6-1 on the road, 20-7 in Pac-10 play (12-2 this season), 13-3 on Saturday and 8-0 after a spread-cover. Also, USC is in the midst of “over” streaks of 16-5 on Saturday, 5-0 after a SU win and 6-2 against winning teams. Finally, the over is 6-2 in the last eight series meetings and 5-2 in the last seven clashes at the Galen Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and OVER
Florida State (20-6, 13-6-1 ATS) at Virginia Tech (16-9, 8-12 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has seen its March Madness hopes tank in the last month, tries to get back on track when it hosts Florida State at the Cassell Coliseum in Blacksburg, Va.
The Hokies are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS since Jan. 29, including back-to-back road losses at Maryland last Saturday (83-73 as a 3½-point underdog) and rival Virginia on Wednesday (75-61 as a one-point chalk). Virginia Tech has failed to cover in four straight games, including as a 7½-point favorite in a pair of narrow wins over N.C. State and Georgia Tech in its last two at home.
Florida State used a big second half to put away Miami, Fla., 80-67 as a 3½-point home chalk on Wednesday. The Seminoles, who had scored between 62 and 68 points in their previous four games before Wednesday, are 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in their last five and 7-3 in their last 10 (6-3-1 ATS).
Florida State is in a four-way tie for second place in the ACC standings at 7-4 (7-3-1 ATS), including 3-2 on the highway (3-1-1 ATS). The Hokies are a game behind at 6-5 in conference (5-6 ATS), including 4-1 at home (1-4 ATS).
The home team is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the five meetings between these schools since Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004-05. In last year’s only clash, the Hokies rolled to an 89-80 victory as a four-point home chalk. The host and the favorite have cashed in each of the last four battles.
The Seminoles are on ATS streaks of 8-3-1 overall, 10-2-1 on the road, 11-3-2 in ACC play, 6-2-1 versus winning teams, 7-3-1 as an underdog, 5-2 on Saturday and 12-5-1 after a SU victory. Conversely, in addition to its 0-4 ATS slump overall, Virginia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, 1-5 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points and 1-5 ATS in its last six after an outright defeat.
The over is on streaks of 4-0 for Florida State against winning teams, 7-2 for Va-Tech overall, 17-5 for Va-Tech at home, 8-2 for Va-Tech in ACC action and 4-1 for Va-Tech against winning teams. Also, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER
(2) Oklahoma (25-1, 12-8-1 ATS) at Texas (17-8, 9-13 ATS)
Oklahoma, which could rise to No. 1 in the national rankings for the first time since 1990 with a victory today, heads to Austin looking for a rare season sweep of the Longhorns when these Big 12 rivals clash at the Erwin Events Center.
The Sooners are riding a 13-game winning streak and are the only Big 12 team with a perfect conference record (11-0). They’ve been idle since last Saturday, when they pummeled Texas Tech 95-74, covering as a 16½-point home favorite. Player-of-the-year candidate Blake Griffin had 40 points and 23 rebounds – both career highs – in the rout of the Red Raiders as Oklahoma scored 77 points or more for the seventh consecutive game.
Texas continued its downward spiral with Monday’s 81-66 loss at Texas A&M as a two-point road favorite. The Longhorns have dropped four of their last six – all in Big 12 action – going 1-5 ATS, including 1-2 SU and ATS at home.
Oklahoma has a one-game lead over Kansas in the Big 12 standings and is 7-3-1 ATS in conference, including 4-0-1 ATS (5-0 SU) on the road. Meanwhile, Texas is now tied for fourth place with a 6-5 conference record (3-8 ATS), including 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS at the Erwin Events Center.
The Sooners snapped a six-game SU and ATS losing streak to Texas in emphatic fashion last month, rolling to a 78-63 victory as a 4½-point home chalk. The winner has covered in each of the last nine series meetings, with the host going 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven and the favorite cashing in six of those seven clashes. Also, Oklahoma is going for its first season sweep of Texas since the 2004-05 season, though it is 0-3 SU and ATS the last three years in Austin.
In addition to being 7-3-1 ATS in its 11 conference games and 4-0-1 ATS on the road, Oklahoma is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six Saturday outings and 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine versus winning teams. The Longhorns’ pointspread nosedives include 1-4 at home, 0-4 on Saturday and 1-4 against winning teams.
The over is on runs of 7-1 for Oklahoma overall, 10-4-1 for Oklahoma on the road, 4-0 for Oklahoma on Saturday and 5-2 for Texas overall. Also, last month’s clash between these rivals topped the total, but the under is 3-1 in the last four battles at Texas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER
BYU (20-5, 12-11 ATS) at UNLV (19-7, 12-11 ATS)
BYU takes a five-game SU and ATS winning streak to Las Vegas looking to avenge an earlier-season loss to the Rebels in a key Mountain West Conference clash at the Thomas & Mack Center.
The Cougars took care of business against New Mexico at home Tuesday, pulling away down the stretch for a 73-62 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Since suffering a six-point overtime loss at archrival Utah on Jan. 27, BYU has ripped off five straight wins and covers, by an average margin of 21 ppg (80-59), while shooting 54.4 percent overall (49.3 percent from 3-point range) and holding opponents to 36.3 percent shooting (28.6 percent from beyond the arc).
UNLV’s hopes for a third straight trip to the Big Dance took a hit with Wednesday’s 77-68 loss at Wyoming as a seven-point road chalk. The defeat snapped a modest two-game winning streak, but the Rebels have still lost three of their last five. On the bright side, Lon Kruger’s club remains on a 7-2 ATS run, including 4-1 ATS at home (all in Mountain West play).
The Cougars are in a second-place tie in the Mountain West at 8-3 (6-5 ATS), 1½ games behind first-place Utah, and they’re 3-2 SU and ATS in conference roadies. UNLV is 7-5 SU and ATS in league action (4-1 SU and ATS at home).
BYU squandered a 13-point halftime lead against UNLV exactly one month ago, losing 76-70 as a 7½-point home favorite. Prior to that outcome, the home team had won eight consecutive meetings in this rivalry and the favorite had covered in six straight, including the Mountain West tournament, which is played on the Rebels’ home court. UNLV is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, including 5-0 ATS at home. Also, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 contests (7-0 ATS in the last seven).
Going back to non-conference play, BYU has cashed in six of its last eight road games, while the Rebels are on ATS upticks of 5-2 versus winning teams, 18-8-2 after a SU defeat and 37-17-2 on Saturday.
Ten of the last 12 meetings between these schools have climbed over the total, including six of the last seven in Vegas. Also, the over is on runs of 11-4 for BYU overall, 5-1 for BYU on the road, 6-1 for BYU on Saturday, 8-2 for UNLV against winning teams and 5-2 for UNLV after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
New Orleans (32-21, 23-28-2 ATS) at Utah (32-23, 29-26 ATS)
The Jazz will attempt to build off Thursday’s impressive win over the Celtics when they host the Hornets, who are playing the middle game of a three-game road trip.
Utah managed just 13 first-quarter points against the Celtics on Thursday, but took advantage of an injury to Boston star Kevin Garnett, who sat out the entire second half as the Jazz prevailed 90-85 as a 2½-point home underdog. Jerry Sloan’s squad has won and covered in three straight games and is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven. The Jazz, who had scored at least 100 points in eight of nine games before Thursday, have won and cashed in six consecutive home games.
The Hornets opened their road trip with Friday’s 115-111 overtime loss at the Lakers, cashing as a nine-point road underdog. New Orleans is mired in a 4-7 SU and ATS funk, including 1-4 SU and ATS on the highway.
This is New Orleans’ second trip this season to Salt Lake City, as it got drubbed 116-90 as a four-point underdog back on Jan. 7. Utah is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, including four consecutive double-digit home wins. In fact, the Jazz are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five clashes with the Hornets in Salt Lake, with victory margins of 26, 22, 18, 10 and 24 points.
Also in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in four of the last five battles and the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll.
New Orleans is on an ATS roller-coaster ride entering this game, with positive pointspread trends of 48-21-3 on Saturday and 31-14-3 when playing on back-to-back nights offset by ATS declines of 1-4 on the road, 2-5 against the Northwest Division and 2-5 versus Western Conference foes. Also, the Hornets are 3-11 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Jazz, in addition to their current 6-1 overall ATS run, are on spread-covering tears of 57-27-3 at home, 8-3 against the Southwest Division, 4-1 versus Western Conference opponents and 12-5 when playing on one day of rest. However, Utah has failed to cover in five of its last seven Saturday outings.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall and 4-1 in the last five battles in Utah, with the one “over” occurring in last month’s get-together. Otherwise, though, the Jazz are on “over” stretches of 17-7 overall, 10-4 at home, 13-5 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus the Southwest Division, 7-3 when playing on one day of rest and 5-1 on Saturday. Also, the over is 8-2 in the Hornets’ last 10 overall, 8-2-1 in their last 11 on the highway, 6-1 in their last seven versus the Northwest Division, 4-1-1 in their last six on Saturday and 4-1-1 in their last six when playing on back-to-back nights.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
Today’s Free Pick - Marc Lawrence
GAME: San Diego State @ New Mexico Feb 21, 2009 3:00PM
PICK: New Mexico
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: New Mexico
Note: Nice spot for the Lobos here. Already playing well (16-4 ATS last 20 conference clashes and 21-7 ATS last 28 home games), they hook the Aztecs off a same season revenge win over Wyoming with the same on deck against BYU. It certainly doesn’t hurt our chances knowing that SDSU is just 6-15 ATS in games before Cougar clashes. Toss in a little altitude and just like that we look for New Mexico to bring a lot of attitude into The Pit this afternoon.
We recommend a 1-unit play on New Mexico.
James Patrick Sports
Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech
The scoreboard operators math abilities are usually tested on a regular basis in Red Raider games as the TTRR are Over the Total in 8 of 10 in Saturday action, 22-of 28 overall and 10 of 13 at home.The Aggies are Over the Total in 5 of 6 of late. Let the scoring begin in this Big XII game.
Dave Cokin
UW-Green Bay @ Long Beach State
Play: Green Bay -3
Long Beach State has made some very impressive strides this season. But this looks like a potential dead spot for the 49ers. They're now tied for the top spot in the Big West off their thrilling road win at Fullerton on Wednesday, and there's a real chance they could be less than 100% focused for this game. UW-Green Bay is the better team, and while this is not the easiest trip in the world, they would appear to have a clear situational edge. I'll lean to Green Bay as small road chalk.