SPORTS ADVISORS
(1) UConn (27-2, 12-12 ATS) at (3) Pittsburgh (27-3, 15-8 ATS)
A battle for a potential share of first place in the Big East takes place when Connecticut, seeking revenge for an earlier home loss, travels to the Petersen Events Center to take on Pittsburgh in the regular-season finale.
Since losing to Pitt nearly three weeks ago, UConn has grabbed three straight wins (1-2 ATS), including a 72-65 victory over Notre Dame last Saturday, failing to cash as a heavy 11½-point road chalk. The Huskies, who are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven starts, have outscored opponents by an even 15 ppg on the year (76.6-61.6). But over the past five games, that margin has tightened substantially, with Connecticut averaging 71.8 ppg and allowing 65.4.
The Panthers bounced back from an upset loss at Providence to notch a pair of wins, including Wednesday’s impressive 90-75 victory over No. 13 Marquette as a healthy 9½-point home favorite. Pitt, which is on a 7-2 ATS roll, has rolled up 81.6 ppg in its last five starts, while allowing 72.6 ppg, and the Panthers have averaged 82.9 ppg on their home floor this season, nearly 20 points more than their opponents (63.1).
Connecticut is tied for first with Louisville in the Big East with a 15-2 SU mark (9-8 ATS), going a perfect 8-0 SU on the road (6-2 ATS). Pittsburgh is a game back in league play at 14-3 SU (12-5 ATS), including 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home.
Pitt is on a 3-1 ATS run in this rivalry (2-2 SU), including a 76-68 road win on Feb. 16 as a 2½-point pup. Going back further, the Panthers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the visitor is 7-3 ATS in he last 10, and the underdog has covered in six of the last eight meetings.
The Huskies are on ATS upswings of 4-1 on the road (all in the Big East) and 6-2 in roadies against teams with a home winning percentage above .600, and they’re 3-0 SU and ATS as an underdog this season. However, they’ve dropped four straight ATS decisions in Saturday games and are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Big East starts. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 as a favorite of 12 points of fewer, 5-0 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 6-1 against winning teams, 5-1 at home, 4-1 on Saturday and 5-2 after a SU win, and their current 7-2 ATS roll has come entirely within the Big East.
The under is on a 4-1 run in this rivalry, with the lone “over” occurring last month. Also, the under for Connecticut is on tears of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 5-1 on the road and 5-2 in Big East play. On the flip side, the over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 19-7-1 in conference action and 4-0-1 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Michigan (18-12, 14-10-1 ATS) at Minnesota (21-8, 11-12-1 ATS)
Minnesota aims to firm up its postseason credentials when it takes on Michigan in the Big Ten regular-season finale for both teams at Williams Arena.
The Gophers edged Wisconsin in a defensive battle 51-46 Wednesday as a 2½-point home chalk, stemming a 1-3 SU and 1-6 ATS plunge. For the season, Minnesota has averaged 66.6 points per game and given up 61.5 ppg, but its offense has tailed off in the last five games in averaging 57.8 ppg, while the Gophers have given up just a tick less in that span (57.0 ppg).
The Wolverines have been idle since Sunday’s 60-55 setback at Wisconsin, cashing as a seven-point underdog for their third ATS win in the last four games (2-2 SU). Michigan has struggled on the road the past two months, going 1-7 SU (2-5 ATS in lined games), and for the season, the Wolverines are averaging 60 ppg on the highway and giving up 68.5 ppg.
Minnesota is 9-8 SU (7-10 ATS) in the Big Ten, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in Minneapolis. Michigan is 8-9 SU and ATS in conference, with a 2-6 SU and ATS road mark.
The SU winner in this rivalry has gone 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, with the teams splitting those 10 contests at the betting window. The favorite is on a 5-0 ATS roll, and Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at Williams Arena.
The Gophers are on ATS slides of 3-9 overall (all in the Big Ten), 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against winning teams, but they’ve covered in nine of their last 12 home games and are on a 5-1 ATS run at home against teams with a losing road record. The Wolverines sport positive ATS trends of 6-2 overall and 6-1 against winning teams, but they are on a 3-7-1 ATS dive on the road and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS as an underdog of less than five points.
The under for Minnesota is on sprees of 7-2 overall (all in Big Ten play), 41-19 at home, 6-2 against winning teams, 38-14 on Saturday and 13-6 after a SU win, and the under for Michigan is on streaks of 9-4-1 overall, 13-3-1 on the highway and 18-8-1 in conference action. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in seven of the last 10 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
(15) Missouri (22-5, 14-9 ATS) at Texas A&M (22-8, 14-8 ATS)
Surging Texas A&M gears up for a Big 12 battle when it plays host to streaking Missouri at Reed Arena.
The Aggies dropped Colorado 72-66 Wednesday in Boulder for their fifth straight victory, but they fell just short of covering as a 6½-point chalk, which ended a 5-0 ATS run. A&M has been putting up 75.2 ppg during its winning streak, nearly five points better than its season average of 70.3, and the Aggies have given up 65.8 ppg in that stretch, nearly matching their season defensive average of 65.1 ppg.
The Tigers bounced back from last Saturday’s blowout loss at Kansas to beat fourth-ranked Oklahoma 73-64 as a four-point home favorite, capping a perfect home record and notching their eighth win in the last nine games (7-2 ATS). For the season, Mizzou is outscoring opponents by 14 ppg (81-67), but on the road, the Tigers are averaging 73.1 ppg while allowing just a shade more at 73.9.
Missouri is 12-3 SU (10-5 ATS) in Big 12 play, including 4-3 SU and ATS on the road. Texas A&M is 8-7 SU (10-5 ATS) in conference, with a 5-2 SU and ATS home mark.
Texas A&M has cashed in seven straight meetings in this rivalry (5-2 SU), including a 77-69 road win last season giving 1½ points. The Aggies have won and covered from the favorite’s role in the last four contests.
The Aggies are on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 9-1 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU win, 7-1 against winning teams, 5-1 on Saturday, 8-3 as an underdog this season and 45-22 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Tigers are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-2 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win, but they’ve cashed in just seven of their last 19 road starts and are on an 11-27 ATS slide in roadies against teams with a winning home record.
The over for A&M is on runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Big 12) and 4-1 after a SU win, and the over is 4-1 in Missouri’s last five road games against teams with a winning home record. However, the under for the Aggies is on stretches of 7-2 on Saturday and 7-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
Kentucky (19-11, 12-12-1 ATS) at Florida (21-9, 8-14-1 ATS)
Florida plays host to Kentucky at the O’Connell Center in a battle of two teams very much in need of a win to prop up their NCAA Tournament hopes.
The Gators stumbled at Mississippi State 80-71 as a one-point road chalk Wednesday for their third consecutive SU and ATS loss, and they are now 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven outings. Florida has averaged 78.8 ppg this season, 10 points better than its opponents (68.7), but over the last five games, the Gators are putting up 77.2 ppg but allowing 76.4.
The Wildcats have also dropped three in a row SU and ATS following Wednesday’s embarrassing 90-85 upset loss to Georgia as an overwhelming 17½-point home favorite. Kentucky, which is on a 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS freefall, have surrendered 75 ppg over the last five contests after giving up 65 ppg in their first 25 games.
Florida and Kentucky are both 8-7 SU in the SEC, with the Gators 6-8-1 ATS and the Wildcats 6-9 ATS. Florida is 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS in home conference games, and Kentucky is 4-3 SU and ATS when visiting league rivals.
Florida has covered in three of the last four clashes in this rivalry, losing 68-65 last month in Lexington but cashing as a 4½-point underdog. The Gators are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Gators carry nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-5 overall (all in the SEC), 6-16 at home, 0-5 after a SU loss, 1-4 against winning teams and 4-10 as a favorite of less than 15 points The Wildcats have gone 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Saturday affairs and 3-0 as an underdog of fewer than 17 points, but are otherwise on pointspread declines of 2-7 against winning teams, 1-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 1-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 after a non-cover. Plus, Kentucky’s ongoing 2-8 ATS slide has all come in conference play.
The over has hit in four of Kentucky’s last six games, and the over for Florida is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 17-4 after a SU loss, 13-6-1 after an ATS setback and 4-1 at home. However, the under for the Gators is on runs of 6-2 on Saturday and 11-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(25) Syracuse (22-8, 13-13 ATS) at (13) Marquette (23-7, 12-12-1 ATS)
Syracuse looks to continue its late-season surge when it wraps up the regular season with a trip to Milwaukee to take on Marquette in a Big East battle at the Bradley Center.
The Orange hammered Rutgers 70-40 Tuesday to easily cash as a 14-point home chalk, notching their third straight win and cover since suffering an 89-86 home loss to Villanova as a two-point favorite. Syracuse is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five starts, all in the Big East, and the Orange have averaged a solid 85.6 ppg on 53.2 percent shooting in that stretch, while giving up 68.8 ppg on 41.3 percent shooting.
The Golden Eagles got rolled at Pittsburgh 90-75 Wednesday as a 9½-point road ‘dog for their third straight loss (1-2 ATS), following a modest three-game winning streak. Despite its current skid, Marquette is still outscoring opponents by an average of nearly 10 ppg this season (79.1-69.5), and that margin improves to more than 15 ppg at the Bradley Center (83.5-67.2), where the Eagles are 16-1 SU but only 5-6-1 ATS in lined games.
Marquette is 12-5 SU (9-8 ATS) in the Big East, including 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home. Syracuse is 10-7 SU (9-8 ATS) in conference, with a 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS road mark.
These teams have met just twice since Marquette joined the Big East, with Syracuse winning and covering in both games, including an 87-72 home rout last season as a one-point chalk. Two years ago, Syracuse won 70-58 in Milwaukee catching 3½ points.
In addition to their current 4-1 ATS run, the Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday outings. However, they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road, 2-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 3-9 after a SU win of more than 20 points and 3-7 following a spread-cover.
The Eagles are on a 2-6 ATS nosedive overall, all in the Big East, and are on additional ATS purges of 1-4 at home and 1-4-1 after a SU loss, but they still sport positive pointspread runs of 5-1 as a favorite of less than eight points, 15-5-1 at home against teams with a winning road record and 8-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over for Syracuse is on upswings of 4-0 on Saturday, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 after a spread-cover, and the over for Marquette is on streaks of 16-5 on Saturday, 4-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 7-3 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MARQUETTE
California (22-8, 16-11 ATS) at (21) Arizona State (21-8, 15-10 ATS)
Suddenly struggling Arizona State looks to halt a three-game slide when it hosts Pac-10 foe California, which is finishing the regular season strong.
Two months after winning by 30 points at Stanford, the Sun Devils fell to the Cardinal 74-64 on Thursday as a 10-point favorite. Last weekend, Arizona State dropped consecutive games in overtime at Washington (73-70) and Washington State (51-49) and has now dropped three straight for the first time this season. Herb Sendek’s squad has also followed a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cover in three of its last four.
The Golden Bears bounced back from a tough four-point home loss to UCLA with Thursday’s 83-77 victory at Arizona as a four-point road underdog, outscoring the Wildcats 49-39 in the second half. Cal has rebounded from a 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) slump by winning six of its last eight games (5-3 ATS).
Cal sits in third place in the Pac-10 at 11-6 (9-7 ATS), one game ahead of the Sun Devils (10-7 SU and ATS). The Bears are 4-4 SU and ATS as a visitor in Pac-10 play, while Arizona State is 5-3 in conference home games (4-4 ATS).
The Bears knocked off Arizona State 81-71 as a 1½-point home underdog back on Jan. 4, ending an 8-0 SU and ATS run by the visitor in this rivalry. Cal has won its last four games in Tempe both SU and ATS, with three of those contests decided by a total of nine points. The underdog is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings, the visitor is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the winner has cashed in each of the last nine head-to-head clashes.
The Sun Devils have cashed in 10 of their last 12 after a non-cover and they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Cal is on ATS streaks of 10-4 after a SU win, 9-2 after a non-cover, 11-5 against winning teams and 7-3 as an underdog of seven points or less, but the Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last seven on Saturday.
Cal is on a slew of “over” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 21-9 on the road, 25-8 in Pac-10 action, 13-6 on Saturday and 8-0 versus winning teams. Also, the over is 5-1 in Arizona State’s last six home games, 11-2 in its last 13 against winning teams, 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this series and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Tempe.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and OVER
Oklahoma State (20-9, 11-11-1 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (26-4, 13-11-1 ATS)
Two Big 12 rivals headed in opposite directions down the stretch clash at the Noble Center in Norman, Okla., as the slumping Sooners host streaking Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys have caught fire at the right time, winning and cashing in six straight games, all in conference. On Monday, they held off Kansas State 77-71, barely holding on as a 5½-point home favorite. Oklahoma State is averaging 80.5 ppg during its winning streak while allowing 68 ppg, and it has won and covered consecutive road games at Colorado (76-55) and Texas Tech (92-82).
Oklahoma started the Big 12 campaign 11-0, but it has since dropped three of its last four both SU and ATS, including Monday’s 73-64 setback at Missouri as a four-point road underdog. The Sooners, who are 3-5-1 ATS in their last eight contests (all in the Big 12), had a 19-game home winning streak snapped in their last contest at the Noble Center, falling to then-No. 15 Kansas 87-78 as a two-point chalk. However, they were without star forward Blake Griffin (concussion) in that Feb. 23 game.
Oklahoma (12-3, 8-6-1 ATS in conference) is tied with Missouri for second place in the Big 12, one game behind Kansas, and the Sooners are 6-1 when hosting league rivals (3-4 ATS). The Cowboys are 9-6 in league play (8-7 ATS), including 3-4 SU and ATS on the road, and the SU winner has covered in 14 of their last 15 conference games.
The Sooners have won four consecutive meetings in this rivalry (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (4-2-1 ATS), including an 89-81 triumph as a 2½-point road chalk on Jan. 26. The favorite is on a 7-3-1 ATS run in the Bedlam Rivalry, and the visitor has cashed at a 5-1-1 clip in the last seven clashes.
Although they’ve cashed in six straight games overall and they’re 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 Saturday contests, the Cowboys have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 on the highway and they’re 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season. Oklahoma is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight on Saturday and 10-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 12 points or fewer, but 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry and in the last five in Norman. Also, the under is 4-0 in Oklahoma State’s last four overall, 4-1 in its last five on Saturday and 9-4 in Oklahoma’s last 13 on Saturday. However, the Sooners have topped the total in 11 of their last 12 contests at the Noble Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas (20-9, 11-15 ATS) at (9) Kansas (24-6, 17-6-1 ATS)
Kansas, returning to the court for the first time since suffering an embarrassing loss at Texas Tech, goes for its 41st consecutive victory at Allen Fieldhouse as it hosts Big 12 rival Texas.
The Jayhawks went to Lubbock, Texas, as a 10-point road favorite Wednesday and left with their most lopsided loss of the season, an 84-65 defeat to the Red Raiders, ending a five-game SU winning streak and a 7-0-1 ATS roll. Kansas, which had averaged 80.8 ppg and allowed 64.6 ppg during its winning streak, has won 40 straight at Allen Fieldhouse, the longest current home winning streak in the NCAA. This year, Kansas is 17-0 SU and 10-1-1 ATS on its home floor.
Texas improved to 5-2 (3-4 ATS) in its last seven games with Monday’s 73-57 rout of Baylor as an eight-point home favorite. The Longhorns have averaged 83.4 ppg in their last five victories while putting up just 61.3 ppg in their last four defeats. Rick Barnes’ squad has lost three of its last four on the highway (0-4 ATS).
Kansas (13-2, 12-2-1 ATS in conference) has clinched at least a share of its fifth straight regular-season Big 12 championship, as it leads both Missouri and Oklahoma by one game but has already defeated both teams. The Jayhawks are unbeaten through eight conference home games (6-1-1 ATS). Texas is 9-6 in the Big 12, but just 5-10 ATS, including 3-4 on the road (2-5 ATS).
These teams last met in the Big 12 tournament championship game a year ago, with the Jayhawks rolling to an 84-74 win as a 5½-point favorite. Kansas has won four of the last five meetings (2-3 ATS), with three of those wins coming in the tournament. In regular-season action, the host has won six consecutive meetings (4-2 ATS). Finally, the Longhorns have cashed in seven of the last 10 battles and the ‘dog is on a 4-1 ATS roll.
Texas is in ATS funks of 5-11 overall, 0-4 on the road, 6-14-1 in Big 12 play, 1-5 on Saturday, 0-5 after a SU win and 0-5 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Jayhawks are on positive pointspread runs of 23-7-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 16-5-1 in conference play, 5-1 on Saturday and 37-16-1 against winning teams. Kansas’ 17-6-1 overall ATS mark is tied for third best in the nation.
The over is on runs of 4-1 overall in this rivalry, 4-0 when these teams meet in Kansas, 4-1 for the Jayhawks against winning teams and 4-1 for Texas versus winning squads. However, the under is 5-2 in the Longhorns’ last seven on Saturday, 8-3 in Kansas’ last 11 overall and 8-3 in Kansas’ last 11 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(12) LSU (25-5, 12-10 ATS) at Auburn (20-10, 18-5 ATS)
Auburn will try to continue its late-season push toward an NCAA Tournament bid when it goes in search of its fourth consecutive victory in this regular-season finale against SEC foe LSU.
Auburn has won three in a row and seven of its last eight, cashing in all eight contests. The only SU setback came at LSU on Feb. 21, a 79-72 loss as an eight-point road underdog. Auburn has been very consistent offensively during its 7-1 SU run, scoring between 71 and 78 points in seven of the games while notching 91 in the other contest. The Tigers have won and covered four straight home games, with the last three being double-digit blowouts.
LSU had a 10-game overall and 13-game SEC winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s surprising 75-67 home loss to Vanderbilt as a 9½-point favorite. LSU, which had scored at least 70 points in 14 consecutive games prior to Wednesday, has followed up a 7-2 ATS run by failing to cover in four of its last six. However, since losing their SEC opener at Alabama (65-59) on Jan. 11, the Tigers have won six straight conference road games (5-1 ATS).
LSU has already clinched the SEC regular-season title with a 13-2 league mark (9-6 ATS), going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road. Auburn is second in the SEC West behind LSU at 9-6 (11-4 ATS), including 5-2 SU and ATS at home.
Including the 79-72 home win on Feb. 21, LSU has won eight of the last 10 against Auburn, but Auburn has covered in six of the last seven. LSU’s one spread-cover came last year at Auburn, an 81-80 victory as a 4½-point road underdog. The pup is on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the visitor has covered in three straight and six of the last eight.
Auburn has the second-best ATS mark in Division I at 18-5, and in addition to cashing in eight straight SEC games, the Tigers are on ATS upticks of 4-0 at home, 4-0 on Saturday, 7-0 versus winning teams, 6-0 after a SU victory and 10-1 after a spread-cover. LSU is just 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games on Saturday.
The last four meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total. Also, LSU is on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the road and 10-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the over is 4-1 in Auburn’s last five on Saturday, 8-3 in its past 11 against winning teams and 22-10 in its last 32 after an outright victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and OVER
(6) Louisville (24-5, 17-11-1 ATS) at West Virginia (21-9, 13-14 ATS)
Louisville can clinch at least a share of the Big East championship when it closes out the regular season in Morgantown against West Virginia, which has used a strong late-season push to all but assure itself of a March Madness bid.
The Cardinals ran their winning streak to six in a row with Wednesday’s 95-78 rout of Seton Hall, pushing as a 17-point home favorite. Louisville has followed a 1-3 ATS slump by going 4-1-1 ATS during its six-game winning streak. Also, Rick Pitino’s squad is 7-1 SU and ATS in Big East road games, with six of those seven wins coming by nine points or more.
The Mountaineers have won two in a row and five of their last six (4-2 ATS). On Wednesday, they rolled over hapless DePaul 82-63, but came up just short as a 22-point home favorite, making the SU winner 8-1 ATS in West Virginia’s last nine games. All but three of the Mountaineers’ 21 victories have been by double digits, with the last eight coming by an average of 18.8 ppg. Finally, Bob Huggins’ squad has won five consecutive home games (all in the Big East), going 4-1 ATS.
Louisville and UConn are tied for first place in the Big East with 15-2 conference records, with the Cardinals going 12-4-1 ATS overall, including their 7-1 SU and ATS road record in league play. West Virginia is 10-7 in conference (9-8 ATS), including 6-2 in Morgantown (4-4 ATS).
The Cardinals have won four of the five meetings in this rivalry (3-1-1 ATS) going back to the 2005 NCAA Tournament. On Jan. 31, Louisville topped the Mountaineers 69-63 at home, but West Virginia used a surge in the waning minutes to barely cover as a 6½-point underdog.
Louisville’s ATS runs are plentiful, including 38-12-3 in Big East play since last season, 24-7-1 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. West Virginia is on ATS runs of 4-1 at home, 5-2 on Saturday and 5-0 after a non-cover.
The Cardinals have topped the total in six of their last seven overall, but West Virginia has stayed under the total in seven of its last nine overall and seven of its last 10 on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
NBA
Miami (33-28, 28-31-2 ATS) at Cleveland (48-13, 40-21 ATS)
LeBron James and the Cavaliers will attempt to continue their incredible success at Quicken Loans Arena when they host Dwyane Wade and the Heat in the second meeting this week between these two squads.
Miami knocked off Toronto 108-102 as a one-point road favorite Thursday for its second straight victory, ending a string in which the Heat alternated SU wins and losses in 12 consecutive games. Despite last night’s result, Miami remains in a 5-8 ATS slump and it has lost five of its last seven on the highway (3-4 ATS). For the season, the Heat get outscored by five ppg as a visitor (101-96).
Cleveland had a four-game winning streak snapped in Friday’s 105-94 loss at Boston as a 1½-point road underdog. Last night’s defeat aside, the Cavaliers have still won nine of their last 11 (8-3 ATS). Also, the Cavaliers continue to have the NBA’s best home record at 27-1 (22-6 ATS). In fact, since losing 101-91 to the Lakers at Quicken Loans Arena on Feb. 8, Cleveland is 4-0 SU and ATS at home, winning by margins of 17, 21, 15 and 18 points. For the season, the Cavs are outscoring visitors by an average of 16 ppg in their building (104-88).
Miami’s defense has been nonexistent of late, allowing 115, 107, 129 and 102 points in their last four contests. On the flip side, before last night’s game in Boston, the Cavaliers had held eight of 10 opponents to 93 points or less, including giving up 87 or less six times and 79 or less on four occasions. Over their last 11 contests, including Friday’s outing against the Celtics, the Cavaliers are giving up 88.4 ppg.
James (42 points) outplayed Wade (41) in leading Cleveland to Monday’s107-100 win in Miami as a 3½-point road favorite, ending the Heat’s 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The Cavaliers have won five of the last six series clashes (3-3 ATS), including three straight home wins by an average of 10 ppg. The home team is 7-3 SU in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, but the visitor is 7-3 ATS.
Despite Monday’s home loss to Cleveland, the Heat have covered in seven of their last nine against the Central Division, but otherwise they’re in ATS slumps of 2-4 against the Eastern Conference, 2-5 on Saturday and 0-4 when playing on back-to-back games. Meanwhile, the Cavs have failed to cash in seven of their last nine against the Southeast Division, but otherwise they’re on pointspread runs of 45-21 overall, 25-6 at home, 6-1 on Saturday, 6-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 35-18 versus the Eastern Conference.
For Miami, the over is on streaks of 7-1-1 overall, 10-4 on the road, 10-1 when playing on back-to-back nights, 8-2-1 on Saturday and 6-1 against the Central Division, while the Cavs have topped the total in six straight back-to-back situations and seven of nine on Saturday. However, the under is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six at home and 10-4 in its last 14 against Eastern Conference opponents.
Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five Heat-Cavs battles at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Mike Wynn Sports
Texas @ Kansas
Season finale for both these teams and it turns out to be a big game for both these squads Saturday night. Kansas sitting at 13-2 in the conference can nail down the a Big12 Championship with a win here, while Texas is trying to get to fourth in the conference and get a coveted first round bye in the conference tournament. Kansas off a bad outing and loss at Texas Tech Wednesday night or they’d already have the Championship wrapped up thanks to the Oklahoma loss at Missouri. Texas, who started out the season so promising, is looking to get back to that early season form and a road win at Kansas would be a big booster heading into post season play. Texas just 4-6 on the road this season including 1-3 the last 4, and the only win was in overtime over cellar dweller Colorado. No doubt both teams will be heading to the big dance in post season so let’s take a look at both these squads.
First we’ll start with the Texas Longhorns. Texas Longhorns had it rolling early in the season with a 9-1 record and big wins over UCLA and Villanova. Texas was ranked as high as number 5 before losing to Michigan St back in December, and they haven’t been real impressive in the Big12 with a 9-6 conference mark. Texas is led by their senior guard A.J. Abrams and his 16.9 points per game and he is the undisputed floor leader for Rick Barnes playing the point guard spot. 6-7 junior forward Damion James is a good looking player. James averages 15.6 points and 9.5 boards per game this season and he’s the number 1 option for Texas in the paint. Overall Texas is not a team that shoots free throws well, they don’t have a consistent perimeter shooter outside of Abrams, and teams have basically ganged up on Abrams defensively. Texas has a fairly deep bench and they have some athletes, but they’ll need to get some outside shooting if they want to get deep into the NCAA tournament.
Kansas, the defending national champs, was supposed to be in a bit of rebuilding mode, but Bill Self has his squad right there again. Jayhawks on the cusp of another conference title and they’ll be thinking about seeding selection Sunday when the pairings are announced. Kansas is a relatively young team with just 5 upper classmen on the roster, and only 1 of them is a significant contributor, and that’s junior Sherron Collins who averages a team leading 18.2 points per game to go along with his 4.9 assists. Collins at 5-11 is lightning quick and the floor general for the Jayhawks. 6-11 sophomore Cole Aldrich is the main man in the paint. Aldrich averages a double double for Kansas with 14.9 points and 10.5 rebounds per game this season. Kansas is a talented bunch but Kansas is also a young talented bunch, and consistency and tournament pressure could be an issue. Kansas just needs to play like they’ve been playing for much of the conference schedule and they’ll make some noise in the NCAA tournament.
Looking at this match up Saturday night the Jayhawks are about an 8 to 9 point favorite. I’d look to lay the points in this spot Saturday. Kansas off an 84-65 debacle at Texas Tech Wednesday night will be looking to right the ship before the post-season and there’s extra with an outright Big12 title at hand. Bill Self the kind of coach who will demand a big effort from his squad in this one and he should get it against a Texas squad that’s been struggling on the road.
Cajun Sports
Texas vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -8.5
Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence Kansas will be the site of today’s Big 12 battle between the host Kansas Jayhawks and the visiting Longhorns from the University of Texas. Kansas went into Lubbock last Wednesday night as a ten point road favorite to the host Texas Tech Red Raiders and had their ass handed to them 84 to 65. This is a very important game for the Jayhawks on a couple of fronts, first they can bounce back from that embarrassing performance in Texas a few nights ago and they can also clinch the Big 12 regular season title with a win over the Longhorns this afternoon. From a fundamental standpoint the Longhorns shoot a little better than 41 percent from the field on the road and they are terrible from three-point land averaging 29 percent from behind the arc these types of numbers will get you beat in Lawrence. If you shut down the Longhorns Abrams which the Kansas defense can do there is little left to threaten this quick and decisive Jayhawks attack. Kansas averages 81.4 points per game at home this season and only allows 61.8 points per game on 37 percent shooting from the field. They hold the opposition to 32 percent from behind the arc and out-rebound their opponents by almost 11 boards a game. Kansas is 12-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season, 9-0 ATS versus teams allowing <=42% from the field after 15+ games this season, 11-0 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points per game after 15+ games this season and 12-0 ATS versus teams committing <=14 turnovers per game after 15+ games this season. Looking at the Jayhawks situational angles we see that they are 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points the last 3 seasons and 12-2 ATS against conference opponents this season. Lay the chalk with the host as the Jayhawks right the ship and crown themselves Big 12 regular season champions.
Graded Selection: 2* Kansas Jayhawks 79 Texas Longhorns 62
Craig Trapp
Louisville vs. West Virginia
Play: Louisville +3
As always in the BIG EAST every game means so much. U of L can share the conference title with a win and could also strengthen selection bid for a #1 seed. On the other hand WVU is safely in the tournament but would like to improve what is likely a #7 seed currently.
Betting trends for this match up:
Cardinals are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.
Cardinals are 38-13-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. Big East.
Cardinals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Louisville is such a solid defensive team and they will need to bring there defense today with a WVU that at home shoots the three very well. If U of L can shut down Rolloff and Butler and make them drivers instead of standstill shooters think they will win again. Earlier this year WVU lost in Louisville after keeping it close early WVU pulled away late in an easy win. Today think the same thing happens. U of L m/l is Craig's Play but if you want take the +3 pts. SCORE LOU 72 - WVU 68
Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -3
Rematch of the highest ranked teams in the BIG EAST. A month ago Pitt went to UCONN and put it on them physically and on the score board. Blair showed why he is one of the best players in the country and showed that even as good as Thabeet is defensively he still could not slow down Blair. UCONN needs this win for confidence going into the Big East tourney and also the big dance. Ever since Dyson has gone out this team has played inconsistent and sometimes outside shooting has let them down.
Lets look at the trends in this match up:
Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Pittsburgh has huge motivation they want a #1 seed in the big dance and a win here will ensure that also its senior night and they want to remember their last game at home with a big win. Fields is banged up but he will play and as always he will make big shots when needed and Young/Blair will dominate UCONN's big guys. Get in early think this spread is going to end up at -4 or -4.5. Pitt pulls away late and wins going away. SCORE: PITT 74 - UCONN 65
James Patrick Sports
Nevada vs. Boise State
The Bulldogs of Fresno State are just 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 outings and 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with Boise State. With the home team 5-2 ATS in this series we'll stay at home with Boise State Broncos as our Saturday College Basketball selection.
Brian Hansen
Nebraska at Baylor
Prediction: Baylor
This season started with great promise for the Baylor Bears as they surged to a 15-3 record but they have collapsed over the past two months losing nine of their last 11 games. However, I look for Baylor to close the regular season out with a big win over an overrated Nebraska team. Nebraska has struggled on the road in Big 12 play with their only wins over doormats Colorado and Texas Tech. The Huskers have been blown out in almost every other road game and I expect the same today over a hungry Baylor team. Look for a big performance from the home team here as Nebrasks drops to 1-11 ATS their last 12 road games as an underdog of six or fewer points. Play on Baylor!
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks Mar 7 2009 7:05PM
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
We're looking at the Pistons win at Boston last weekend as a buy sign. And it couldn't come at a better time. Detroit invades Atlanta with a double dose of revenge on their minds knowing they are 3-0 SU and ATS in this series with same season double revenge. They are also 7-0 SU and 5-0-2 ATS on this floor when the Hawks played the night before. Given Atlanta's lousy 6-17 ATS mark as unrested home favorites (0-4 ATS this season), we expect the Pistons to be hitting on all cylinders this evening.
Lee Kostroski
Penn State @ Iowa
PICK: Iowa
You wouldn’t know it to look at their record over their last 5 games but the Hawkeyes are actually playing good basketball right now. They have had a number of “oh so close” losses down the stretch to very good teams. They are 1-4 SU over their last 5 games, however those four losses were all “moral victories” as they played to the wire in each. Those four losses included an 8-point setback @ conference champion Michigan State, a 4-point loss to Purdue, the #2 team in the Big Ten, a 6-point loss @ Northwestern and a 2-point loss to Ohio State. The Hawks are 4-4 SU at home in the Big Ten with wins over Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan. Their home losses have all been down to the wire with the exception of Michigan State.
PSU is coming off a hugely emotional game at home vs. Illinois. They trailed throughout but took advantage of some missed FT’s late by the Illini and hit a hoop with under 1 second remaining to win by 1. Watching the game, you would have thought they won the National Championship. The Lions knew going in that a win over the Illini would most likely put them in the NCAA tourney with 10 Big Ten wins at the worst. Even with a loss here they are 10-8 in league play. Now they must travel to Iowa with virtually no time to prepare as their huge win was late on Thursday night. The game didn’t end until after 11:00 PM EST and now they must play on the road just 34 hours later. A really tough task for PSU against a competitive Iowa team playing their final home game.
Speaking of final home game, Iowa’s one key senior, Cyrus Tate is back to full strength. After injuring his ankle and missing 9 games, he has played approximately 20 minutes in each of the last three games. He is the Hawkeye’s leading rebounder and a key interior defender. Him being back in the line up really helps this team.
PSU is vastly over rated in our opinion. Their points per possession differential in Big Ten play is a negative -0.028 which doesn’t match up with their 10-7 conference record. They don’t do anything really well as they are 9th in the league in shooting percentage, 8th in defensive field goal percentage and 5th in rebounding. They’ve been treading on thin ice as of late as they are 4-4 their last 8 games with the wins coming by 5, 5, 3 & 1 point. Today they face a motivated home team playing their final tilt. Expect a tired PSU team to struggle on Saturday.
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s freebie in College Hoops, we’ll take the points with UConn on the road at Pitt in early action.
Nobody was more impressed with Pitt’s eight-point win at UConn 2½ weeks ago than me. Likewise, the Panthers’ 15-point dismantling of 13th-ranked Marquette on Wednesday (a 10 Dime winner for yours truly) was just as strong. However, I believe the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something with this seemingly cheap number – after all, Pitt is 17-0 at home this season – and I’m hearing what they’re saying.
First off, in between knocking off UConn and trashing Marquette, the Panthers played three lackluster games against DePaul, Providence and Seton Hall, losing outright to Providence and going 1-2 ATS. Meanwhile, the Huskies have followed up the loss to Pitt with three straight wins, and although they failed to cash in two of those games (not to mention four of their last five), the one spread-cover was damn impressive: a 93-82 rout at Marquette, where the Golden Eagles – much like the Panthers – hadn’t lost all season.
Speaking of impressive, how does this grab you: UConn has won all eight of its Big East road games this season. Think about that: In what is arguably THE toughest conference in all of college basketball, the Huskies are perfect as a visitor, with the blowout win at Marquette preceded by victories at Louisville, Notre Dame and West Virginia. Additionally, Jim Calhoun’s team is has been an underdog just three times – at Gonzaga, at West Virginia and at Louisville – and the Huskies won those games by respective margins of 6, 6 and 9 points.
UConn has a ton to play for today, most notable revenge (for the home loss to Pitt), at least a share of the Big East title (which they can claim with a win) and confidence (they want to go into next week’s Big East tournament knowing they can beat the Panthers if need be). Grab the points, and don’t be surprised by an outright upset!
5♦ UCONN
Matt Rivers
For Saturday let's take the UCONN Huskies.
Revenge, revenge, revenge! Sure Pitt is awesome and physically smacked around Connecticut in the first game but at this takeback I'll take my chances on Jim Calhoun's ultra talented squad.
The Panthers at home are fairly flawless and were unreal in the game's final 13 or so minutes in coming back to dismantle Marquette last time out but to get these talented Huskies in revenge plus some points is just too good to pass up. Plus Levance Fields is banged up with that back injury and even if he is able to go may not be close to 100%.
We all know how both teams are loaded, were number one at one point and have a shot to win the entire NCAA Championship this season. There is nothing that is too secretive today on either side. Hasheem Thabeet was clearly outplayed by DeJuan Blair in the first meeting and I just do not see that happening again. The guy is a giant and will be more aggressive tonight as he has to be and the team will feed off of that.
It is going to be hard for the Huskies to win this game on the road but they are one of the best teams in this nation and have already won huge games away from Storrs at Gonzaga, Marquette, Notre Dame, West Virginia and Louisville among others. This team is no joke and whenever you can get a number like this with their immense talent and upside, along with some revenge, you just have to take it and run.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Colorado at KANSAS STATE -17
We are on a 20-10-2 comp play run our last 32 releases!
Today we will eat the big chalk in Manhattan, as we look for Kansas State to make a final statement before heading off to the Big 12 tournament.
The Wildcats are just 3-3 their last 6, and 0-4-1 against the spread in those games, and while today's price may seem a little steep, we don't feel it is steep at all, as the 'Cats sure could use a romp to impress the Big Dance tournament committee one final time.
Colorado is the perfect foil, as the Buffs have lost 10 straight, while failing 3 of their last 4 against the spread.
Colorado did come close to upsetting Kansas State back on January 24th, as they lost by just a basket in overtime. Still, the Buffaloes are 0-6 straight up the last 6 series meetings, and just 1-7 the last 8, while failing 6 of those 8 against the spread.
We say "lay it" in a big way today in the Big 12.
Play on the Wildcats.
3♦ KANSAS STATE
Karl Garrett
Stanford +6' at ARIZONA
G-Man smells a close one tonight in Tuscon when suddenly hot Stanford plays suddenly cold Arizona.
The Cardinal have won their last pair, including posting an easy upset win at Arizona State on Thursday, 74-64 as the double-digit dog.
The Wildcats have dropped 4 straight, and they have also dropped the last 4 in this series, failing the last 3 against the spread.
A Stanford outright win tonight, and you would have to feel like the Cardinal would merit some consideration for an at-large bid, and while the outright may not happen, do note the underdog in this Pac 10 rivalry is on a money-turning 17-4 run against the math.
With Arizona reeling, the G-Man is taking the generous points, and looking for the Tree to stay close in Tuscon tonight.
Grab the points and Stanford!
2♦ STANFORD
GOLDEN CONTENDER
On Saturday the free play is on St.Joes game 529 at 1:00 eastern.St.Joes is in a solid spot here.They are 7-0 su-ats as a road favorite of 12.5 to 15.When playing losing teams they are 7-1 this year and have big offensive and defensive statistical edges here.Fordham is on e of the worst teams in the country this year,and playing at home wont help them much here.Fordham is 1-22 su and 6-17 ats as an underdog this year.When playing winning teams they are 1-16 su 4-13 ats.At home they have covered just 2 of there 12 lined games.In there last game Fordham scored less than 60 points in the following game they are 1-10 su and 3-7 ats and have lost su and ats both times as a home dog in this range.
Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: Portland Trailblazers - 13
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