Bobby Maxwell
San Antonio at HOUSTON -2
FREE winner for you tonight on the pro hardwood as we play the Rockets back home facing their in-state rivals from San Antonio.
The Rockets have been tough to deal with in Houston and tonight they'll get a 6-10 point win over in-state rival San Antonio tonight.
The home team has won six straight in this rivalry and the Rockets were riding a 12-game winning streak at home until Wednesday when Ron Artest lost his mind and started talking trash to Kobe Bryant and he single-handedly led the Lakers to a 102-96 win as 3 1/2-point underdogs.
Houston went to Charlotte on Friday and got a 91-86 win as a one-point favorite, while San Antonio has been off since Thursday's 102-95 loss to the Lakers.
The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight on the second night of a back-to-back and 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday games. And look at the Spurs as they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 as a road 'dog of up to 4 1/2-points.
Houston fights tonight and gets a victory over the Spurs. Play Houston.
3♦ HOUSTON
Ohio State vs. MICHIGAN STATE -7', in Indianapolis
Ohio State just isn't a team that can pull off this upset today. The Buckeyes got to 20 wins with Friday's victory, but they aren't getting No. 21 today because Michigan State is a much better team and Tom Izzo has his team focused and preparing for the Big Dance.
Michigan State has won the last three against Ohio State, including a two-game sweep this season, 67-58 at home and 78-67 in Ohio. The Spartans have covered two of the last three in this series.
The Spartans have won six straight games (4-2 ATS) and they are on ATS runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 6-1 on Saturdays, 7-3 overall (all in Big Ten play) and 44-20-1 as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2-points. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records.
Look for a balanced effort from the Spartans today and they'll pull away late and beat the Buckeyes by double-digits. Play Michigan State.
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Ohio State vs. MICHIGAN STATE - at Indianapolis
Outright winner on Temple yesterday to put our free play run at 23-14-2 the last 39 days!
Today, lay the wood with Michigan State, as the Spartans are making their case for a # 1 seed come Sunday's unveiling of the Big Dance brackets.
Michigan State took care of business yesterday with the win and cover over Minnesota, as Tom Izzo's team ran their winning streak to 6 in a row, and the Spartans have also banked the cabbage in their last pair of wins, and 3 of their last 4.
The Buckeyes did pull the mild upset over Wisconsin yesterday, but they were unable to dent the Spartans in this year's season series, Michigan State winning by 9 in East Lansing as the 11-point favorite, and winning by an impressive 11 at Columbus as the 3-point road choice.
The Spartans have been quietly building their Big Dance resume, and with Pittsburgh, Connecticut, and Oklahoma ALL bowing out early in their respective conference tournaments, perhaps a convincing Spartans win both today, and tomorrow will earn them the right to be a # 1 seed come Sunday night.
It all starts with this semifinal double-digit win, and cover.
Lay the wood!
4♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Chris Jordan
Tulsa at Memphis -14', at Memphis, Tenn.
I know Memphis has put together some defensive masterpieces this season, especially over its past 10 games, but this is not only the championship game between last year’s finalists, but this is the same Tulsa team looking for revenge from an embarrassing 63-37 loss just 32 days ago. Not to mention the blowout loss in last year’s final.
Fact is, this is an improved Tulsa team that has just as much momentum as John Calipari’s bunch right now, and there is no doubt in my head we’re going to see a somewhat high-scoring game for these two. I know I always say to look inside the betting numbers at this point in the season, but that’s near impossible when taking in account six of the last seven meetings have stayed under.
The over is on winning runs in five of Tulsa’s last six, and seven of its last eight after an ATS win. And since both teams have shined offensively the past months and a half, I don’t think it’ll be as tight as everyone thinks.
Memphis put up 74 on Houston yesterday; Tulsa scored 70 on UAB. Now it’s time to outscore one another, and I don’t think either believes the concern is on defense, but rather how to out-perform the other offensively. After all, Calipari knows a blowout win means a No. 1 seed, while the Golden Hurricane have to know the only way to win is to penetrate the D and score points.
Play this one high.
1♦ OVER
Mississippi State +3' vs. Lsu, at Tampa
I whole-heartedly agree the Tigers might be the most underappreciated talent right now in college basketball. But boy oh boy do these Bulldogs look awfully rabid after an 82-68 whipping of South Carolina in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. And since Mississippi State's home loss to LSU just a little more than a month ago started a nasty skid that threatened to blow the Bulldogs' entire season, I think there’s revenge in order here.
Mississippi State has won four straight now, and I think it’s more than ready to avenge that 97-94 setback to LSU in double-overtime in Starkville on Feb. 11. It was a game marred by arguably some ugly officiating, and a technical foul at the end of regulation, which resulted in the first overtime tipping off with LSU holding a one-point lead.
The Bulldogs don’t talk much about it, but it’s still fresh in their minds. As is the 24-point shellacking the Tigers gave MSU back on Jan. 21. Prior to this year’s regular-season sweep, Mississippi State had won four straight in this series.
Just looking at the technical point of this game, I see that while both defenses give up their far share of points, it’s the Bulldogs who appear to have the more potent offensive attack. In nine of their last 10 games they’ve scored at least 75 points – six times posting 80 or more. LSU has gotten past 80 just twice in its last 10.
Something strange is brewing here, and I’m going to roll with Mississippi State and the points in this one.
1♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Dave Price
1 Unit on Spurs/Rockets UNDER 183.5
System Play: Plays under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 44-16 the last 5 seasons. Also, San Antonio is 15-5 UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Houston is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. This one has all the makings of a defensive battle and the result will be the under.
LT Profits
Michigan State -7.5
While we are not fans of the Big Ten this season, we do feel that the Michigan State Spartans are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the conference, and we look for them to prove it with a handy win over the Ohio State Buckeyes today.
The Spartans are now 26-5 this season, but they still have a lot to play for here. If they win the Big Ten Conference Tournament, they should be assured of no worse than a two seed in the NCAA Tournament, whereas if they lose today, they may be in serious danger of dropping to a three seed.
Michigan State is winning with great defense this season, allowing 62.3 points per game on 41.1 percent shooting. This is not to say that they cannot score though, as they are actually one of the highest scoring teams in the normally plodding Big Ten at 72.0 points per game, giving them a nice average margin of victory of +9.7 points overall, including +6.9 points on the road.
On the other hand, while Ohio State is now 21-9 themselves, they have a losing 4-6 record on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.3 points per contest. Also, Michigan State swept the two regular season meetings between these clubs by 11 and nine points respectively, and the Spartans are now 4-1 straight up in the last five head-to-head meetings.
We do feel that Ohio State probably earned an NCAA Tournament berth with their win over Wisconsin yesterday, as a 21-10 mark with a loss today should still be good enough. So with seemingly more to play for, look for Michigan State to win by double-digits.
Pick: Michigan State -7.5
Nelly
LSU - over Mississippi State
LSU won both meetings this season although it did take OT to win in Starkville. At home the Tigers crushed the Bulldogs and although MSU has started a great SEC tournament run that should crash to a halt today against the most experienced and consistent team in the league. LSU let a couple of games they didn't need slip away late in the regular season but they appear to be on track for a strong finish to this tournament, ending Kentucky's season yesterday. Mississippi State knocked out South Carolina with a great comeback win but this will be a third game in as many days and facing the early game after playing a late afternoon game last night could take a toll. In the overtime game between these teams Mississippi State caught a lot of breaks, being given 52 free throw attempts leading to 41 points, and yet still lost the game. LSU has every advantage in this match-up and should be motivated to go after the tournament title.
Frank Jordan
New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: New York Rangers +138
The Rangers and Flyers are separated by just 4 points and that four points is the difference between 4th place and 7th place and home ice or hitting the road in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. With the season winding down this is a big game for both teams and in this one look for the Rangers to come away the 3-2 winners in Philadelphia as the look to climb up the standings starting with the road win Saturday. Play NY Rangers
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
223 - 150 run 60 % (they claim)
Saturday Missouri
=======================================
Maddux Sports free pick record since
2003 is an amazing 60% !!! Their free
pick is more consistent than their paid
picks.
Today's Free Pick is LSU -3.5
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DUNKEL
Detroit at St. Louis
The Blues look to build on their 7-4 record against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. St. Louis is the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+135).
Game 51-52: NY Rangers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.866; Philadelphia 11.700
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+135); Under
Game 53-54: NY Islanders at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.542; Boston 11.409
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-350); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+275); Over
Game 55-56: Detroit at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.994; St. Louis 11.661
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+135); Over
Game 57-58: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.083; Pittsburgh 12.225
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-210); Over
Game 59-60: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.656; Florida 11.442
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-250); Under
Game 61-62: New Jersey at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.718; Montreal 11.352
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-115); Under
Game 63-64: Calgary at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.367; Toronto 10.188
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-175); 6
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-175); Under
Game 65-66: Atlanta at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 12.391; Buffalo 11.617
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over
Game 67-68: Carolina at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.636; Washington 10.933
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+165); Over
Game 69-70: Minnesota at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.673; Dallas 11.070
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-160); 5
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-160); Under
Game 71-72: Colorado at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.619; Edmonton 11.378
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-160); Under
Game 73-74: Nashville at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.846; Phoenix 10.568
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-135); Over
Game 75-76: Los Angeles at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.117; San Jose 10.885
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-290); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+245); Under
NCAAB
MD-Baltimore County vs. Binghamton
The Bearcats last loss was at UMBC back in January, but come into the America East final having won 10 straight since then, while the Retrievers have dropped three of their last six. Binghamton is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (-5). Here are all of today's early games
Game 513-514: Tulsa at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 65.596; Memphis 80.114
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 13
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-13)
Game 515-516: Mississippi State vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 65.798; LSU 65.579
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: LSU by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (+3 1/2)
Game 519-520: Florida State vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 67.839; North Carolina 76.858
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 9
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-8 1/2)
Game 523-524: Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 66.676; Michigan State 70.864
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7 1/2)
Game 543-544: MD-Baltimore Co. vs. Binghamton
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Baltimore Co. 46.557; Binghamton 54.798
Dunkel Line: Binghamton by 8
Vegas Line: Binghamton by 5
Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (-5)
Greg Shaker
Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan State Spartans
Play: Under 126
Michigan State games over the last few days of this season and the first game of the Big Ten Tournament are prime examples of why we see lower than usual scoring affairs during the time when wins mean the most. The Cream D Teams bring their Cream to the Top and that has what has happened to the Spartans the last 6 times they have been on the court. This squad is ranked #10 in defensive efficiency this year and they are displaying their talents in a big way with six consecutive victories. Over this span opponents are connecting on just 38% of their shots, and they are scoring just 56 points per contest. Much of scoring woes have been not due to anything more than a much lower pace being set. Over the course of the season, the Spartans have ranked at or near the Top 100 in this department, but they have slipped hard into more halfcourt of late and that is typical. Perhaps that is why they are 5-1 UNDER last 6, and low and behold and they are 9-1 UNDER last 10 as well. Trends like this mean something when they mean something. With Ohio State on the other side of the court today, it would be far fetched to expect anything other than what has been going on lately. The Buckeyes have the #300 Pace in the country out of 341 teams. That means they crawl up the court. Including yesterday, the are 10-3 UNDER when not playing on their homecourt. Their last 4 games have played UNDER the Total. Trends like this mean something when they mean something. Wait! I have already told you that. Ohio State is within the Top 25% of all D squads in the country. They too are peaking at this phase of their game. They too are limiting their opponents to less than good shot selection and many fewer points. They too are playing even a slower pace. Vegas has set this betting line low and it is falling from an open of 127.5. Not low enough. Play it down to 124 and feel good about hearing a lot of Doinks and not many put backs with both teams gobbling down defensive rebounds like a Buckeye Cheerleader gobbles down a Kilbasa.
SportsKingz
CBB
LSU -3.5
NBA
NEW ORLEANS PK
MTi Sports
The Spurs are 6-0 OU (+27.2 ppg) in franchise history after a home loss in which Roger Mason took fewer than 10 shots and 4-0 OU (+30.0 ppg) since after a loss at home in which Tony Parker was the Spurs' high scorer. The Rockets are 4-0 OU (+23.9 ppg) at home after a win in which Aaron Brooks shot worse than 33% from the field and 5-0 OU (+11.5 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.Also, San Antonio is 4-0 OU (+14.1 ppg) with at least one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak and 5-0 OU (+9.6 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog and Houston is 4-0 OU (+21.2 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Let's take these two OVER.
Ben Burns
New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Under
Both earlier meetings between these teams eclipsed the total. However, I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this afternoon. The Flyers held Ovechkin and the Capitals to just two goals last time out. Unfortunately, for Philadelphia fans, the Flyers still lost that game, as they only scored one goal themselves. That's noteworthy as we find the 'under' at a profitable 9-2 this season, when the Flyers were coming off a game in which they scored one goal or less.
Despite the earlier meeting here, which was back in October and which also had a total of 5.5, finishing above the total, the 'under' remains a profitable 15-5 the last 20 times that the Rangers played a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Looking back further and we find the 'under' at 35-17 the last 52 times that the Rangers played a road game with a total of 5.5.
With the Flyers having won last month's meeting at MSG, it's also worth mentioning that the 'under' is 29-15-3 the last 47 times that the Rangers were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. That includes a 9-4-1 mark this season. Consider the UNDER 5.5
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Over
Denver is 15-7 OVER their last 22 games vs. a team with road win percentage of less than 40% and they are 8-3 OVER their last 11 games home favorites of 11 or more points are 13-6 OVER off an ATS loss and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games with the Clippers. Los Angeles is 11-3 OVER their last 14 games as road underdogs and they are 5-0-1 OVER on Saturday. The Clippers are 12-5-1 OVER vs. Western Conference teams and they are 9-3-1 OVER vs. winning teams. PLAY ON 'OVER'
DAVID MALINSKY
DUKE/MARYLAND Under
Now that Nolan Smith is back, we saw Mike Krzyzewski’s “tournament rotation” in full force last night, one that is all about toughening up defensively, even if it is at the expense of the offense. Check the fine print and you will see what we mean – Greg Paulus, 1:00 of floor time. Thanks, senior, but it is time to win now. And that is particularly bad news for Gary Williams.
Maryland struggled mightily to score against Duke this season, managing just 111 points in 80 minutes, with the problem being that for once Greivis Vasquez is being checked by players that are his size. In fact, the Blue Devils can go to a rotation of smaller-but-quicker Elliot Williams to help wear him down, and then rotate among Jon Scheyer, Gerald Henderson and Smith to keep him off-guard, literally. And when Vasquez is not making things happen the Terrapin offense often breaks down completely (he scored only 14 points on 7-21 from the field in the first two meetings combined, with as many turnovers as assists). It works well in a multitude of ways four our purposes, not only slowing the pace, but also reducing the offensive efficiency as well, the latter being magnified by Maryland having to play in the afternoon off of back-to-back night wins to open the tourney.
The Terrapins can defend in this matchup, however. They have been hurt this season by teams that could attack them in the paint, but Duke lacks a pivot offensive threat, negating the prime Maryland weakness. And because Krzyzewski has not been confident of his point guard play his tactic against the traps of presses of Williams will be on to focus on ball security, rather than attacking the basket. That also helps to slow the tempo, while the fact that we expect Duke to be leading the second half can also mean an early appearance of the Blue Devil delay game, something we often see at this stage of the tourney as they work on keeping legs fresh for Sunday.