Scott Rickenbach
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
PICK: Utah Jazz
Oftentimes the best value with a team in the NBA is when they’re on the road as the point spread tends to get too much shading toward the home team. In other words, if the Jazz were hosting the Heat here they would likely be laying a very large number but we’ll be very comfortable laying a small number of points in this match-up since the Jazz are at Miami. One of the keys here is that Utah is well rested coming into this match-up. They will have been off since Wednesday! The Heat will also have been off since Wednesday but the trouble for Miami is that they’ll be coming off of a game against the World Champion Celtics and they’ll have a lengthy road trip on deck. That makes this a tough “sandwich spot” for Miami while, conversely, the Jazz will be in the middle of a five game road trip and they’ll be fully focused on the task at hand. Heading into this week, the Jazz have won 11 straight games. However, they’re view of this road trip was as a challenge they absolutely wanted to rise up to. They got the ball rolling in the right direction by winning the first game of the five game trip on Sunday.
The Jazz know they have many doubters around the league because they have not performed nearly as well on the road as they have at home this season. Of course this adds extra incentive to the entire team and when you have extra motivation in the NBA that usually leads itself to line value! We feel that this will absolutely be the case here on Saturday afternoon with the Jazz visiting Miami. Their win at Toronto on Sunday, an early start game made even earlier by the time change and the fact they had a late game Friday night in Denver, was most impressive in the way they battled through the elements to notch the road win. With Carlos Boozer working his way back (he’s played but now has a sore ankle) the Jazz are even closer to being a tremendous force as Paul Millsap has stepped in nicely during the time Boozer has been out. In fact the entire Jazz team has grown due to his absence and that’s why you’re seeing long losing streaks like the Jazz have been able to put together. Consider a small play on the JAZZ on Saturday afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Timberwolves +5
The public is all over the Bobcats who just played last night and then had to make the trip to Minneapolis. It's never easy to play back-to-back, but especially not when traveling is involved. Minnesota played last night too, but it gets to stay right at home and I expect the T-Wolves dig down deep and give a Bobcats team that is just 10-21 on the road this season a game. The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. This is because they are generally way undervalued in these spots just as they are here. The Bobcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Northwest and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.
GoodFella
UTA vs MIA
This is a payback game for the Jazz, as Miami beat Utah at Utah 93-89 as 4 pt dogs back on Dec. 3rd & Miam has won 9 of the last 10 between these 2 clubs. Utah is coming off a loss at Atlanta, that Utah's 1 game winning streak, but IMO Utah is playing the best basketball in the NBA & they are still 15-2 SU their L/17 games. Utah is 5-1 ATS L/6 games after a ATS loss, while Miami is 1-5 ATS L/6 games after a ATS win & Miami is 1-4 ATS L/5 home games vs a team with a win% of .600 or higher. Miami also plays at conference foe Philly tomorrow & the Heat sit just 2 games ahead of the 76ers for the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference seeding race. Utah is now tied with Portland for 1st place in the NW division & only 1.5 games seperates the #3 seed and the #7 seed in the Western Conference seeding race. Miami has won both games of their 3 game homestand (Bulls & Celtics) & I just really like the way Utah is playing & I think they rebound from the loss to the Hawks on Wednesday night & exact some revenge on this Heat team that has had their number the last few years.
Dwayne Bryant
Ohio St. +8.5 vs Michigan St.
This figures to be a low-scoring game with two good defensive teams doing battle. Michigan State already owns wins of 9 and 11 points over the Buckeyes this season, so I expect Ohio State to be plenty motivated and stingy on the defensive end. In a low-scoring defensive battle, this is just too many points for me to pass up.
I'll grab the points with Ohio State.
Spartan
DEN / LAC Over 204.5
The Clippers have basically been awful on defense all season long guys. They have been allowing over 103 points per game. They can show some punch on offense and I've been really impressed with the play of Zach Randolph and rookie Eric Gordon, they both show real promise. It's no secret that Denver rarely plays inspired ball on the defensive end but they surely do have enough weapons on offense to get after that inept Clippers defense. I look for this one to easily top the number guys, I got in at 204.5.
Carlo Campanella
Play On Houston
Houston hosts San Antonio on Saturday after handing the Spurs one their worst losses this year, when they beat them 103-84 when they met back in November. The Rockets match up very well against the Spurs and hold a 3-2 SU & ATS advantage during their last five meetings. One main reason for that is that the Spurs are a solid 3 point shooting squad, averaging an incredible 40% made from the 3 point arch and we find Houston at 8-0 ATS at home against teams that make 39% or better from 3 point land. Houston will be able to defend against those quick 3 point runs, so we're laying the points with this live home Favorite.
Wunderdog
Charlotte at Minnesota
Pick: OVER 192.5
The Timberwolves were not a good team with Al Jefferson in the middle, although they began to use his skills at both ends of the court to become more competitive. His absence has left a void they are feeling more on the defensive end of the court. Since his absence, teams are driving to the middle uncontested, and generating more second-chance opportunities. It has led to the T-Wolves allowing 107 points per game since he was injured. The Bobcats aren't a big scoring machine, but in their last three against teams that don't defend well, New York, LA Clippers, and Golden State (all on the road), they have averaged 109 ppg, good enough to push this one OVER the total.
ROCKETMAN
Maryland vs Duke
Play: Duke -8 1/2
Maryland meets Duke here in the Semifinals of the ACC tournament. Maryland is only 2-8 ATS last 3 years when playing with one or less days rest. Duke comes in ranked as the #8 team in the nation. Maryland upset Wake Forest yesterday to most likely secure their spot in the Big Dance. Duke barely got by Boston College winning by only one point. Terrapins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Terrapins are 2-5-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Coach K should have his team ready for this one. We'll recommend a small play on Duke today!
Tony George
Ariz. St -1.5 vs Southern California
USC pulled the upset of UCLA yesterday. Arizona State beat up Washington. This is not the matchup everyone was expecting, but neither is Mizzou and Baylor in the Big 12 or Syracuse and Louisville in the Big East. That being said, the better teams usually win the championship games, and when you are laying less than a 2 pointer in that scenario it is a TAKE on laying the small wood in this play.
Arizona State is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games and have a season split with USC, with them winning by double digits last month at home. The Sun Devils have an edge in stat matchups in points scored, points allowed, turnovers, free throw percentage, and most important this time of the year, bench depth. Arizona State's defense is stellar allowing under 60 points for the year and at days end that and a good free throw shooting team versus a bad one makes the difference tonight.
Arizona State 68 USC 62
Andre Gomes
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
This is hands down the best game of the night. The Spurs have the best spot for this contest, as they are rested and they will want to make a bounce back after losing at home against the Lakers. Meanwhile, the Rockets had a tough game last night in Charlotte and with this game being a back to back game maybe, they will have some disadvantage in terms of fatigue, but I don't think this factor will be crucial. In fact, last night none of the Rockets' players logged more than 38 minutes, as Rick Adelman surely knows that the Rockets have an important game tonight.
My analysis of this game is more about the acknowledge that I have of these two teams than properly by evaluating the trends or the spots. The Spurs are struggling defensively against top teams. I'm not saying that they are a bad defensive team (they are pretty good in fact), but they aren't clearly the "old Spurs" anymore. Note that the Lakers scored 102 points last Thursday and the Spurs' last 2 games where they played on the road against top teams, they allowed 102 points to Portland and 107 points to Dallas. They have also huge problems in scoring down the post and Tim Duncan is their only reliable scorer and he is being slowed down by an injury. Do you know that the Spurs are the second worst team of the league in terms of points in the paint with only 34.1 ppg!? In their last game against the Lakers, they were outscored in the paint by 24-42! Yao Ming and Luis Scola are playing a stellar basketball lately and the Rockets will have a tremendous edge inside the paint tonight.
The Rockets are 12-6 (6-2 L8) ATS in back to back games. Since the all star break, they have only lost at home against the Lakers, in a game that Kobe Bryant was simply unstoppable in the fourth quarter. The Spurs (and the rest of the league) don't have any clutch player like Bryant and surely Tony Parker will have their hands full with Artest or Battier. I think that the Rockets at home shouldn't be such a short favorite and that's why I'm taking them in here.