Karl Garrett
Western Kentucky vs. GONZAGA -10'
Well, the G-Man gave you Gonzaga as a free play loser on Thursday, but I will come right back with them tonight, as the Bulldogs did enjoy a 19-point lead on Akron around the 2-minute mark on Thursday, only to leave the back-door open for the Zips.
That won't be the case tonight, as I expect Mark Few's team to be focused from the get-go in this one, and I expect the 'Zags to make this one look easy.
Western Kentucky's near collapse against Illinois tells me all I need to know about this game, as the Hilltoppers had more late game turnovers than the Pillsbury Doughboy, and I suspect if Goinzaga applies a little early defensive pressure, this is the 'Zags game to lose.
Of course playing in Portland also helps matters for the Bulldogs who have now won 10 straight, and 19 of their last 20 overall.
The Bulldogs are also on a 5-2 spread run their last 7 lined games.
Going to play Gonzaga to once again put up a double-digit win, only this time they get the cover!
4♦ GONZAGA
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Texas +7.5
I like the Horns to give Duke a run for its money tonight. Texas has underachieved this season and now it's time to make up for it. The Horns have great balance and have a huge advantage on the interior over a perimeter oriented Duke team. The Blue Devils are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. I'm taking the points as this one goes right down to the wire.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma -6.5 over Michigan
The Wolverines are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog, while the Sooners are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Michigan has had a nice year, going 21-13 overall, but struggling whenthey take to the road as they are just 7-10. Michigan has played well defensively this year as they have allowed just 63.2 ppg overall and 57.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but if this team hopes to compete in this one they will have to do a better job offensively. Michigan comes in averaging66.7 ppg overall, but just 60.6 ppg away from home and 61.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Today they wil be facing a Sooner squad that does allow 67.4 ppg overall, but they are 20th in the nation in defensive FG% as they have allowed teams to shoot for just 39.4%. The Sooners offense is where the biggest edge in this game goes to. Oklahoma has averaged a healthy79.3 ppg overall (11th) and they are 3rd in FG% (49.1%), plus they have averaged 75.2 ppg on 49.6% shooting in ther neutral site games and 75.4 ppg on 50.6 ppg in their last 5 games. No way Michigan can match the Sooners point for point in this one and just lie the UConn game the Wolverines will run out of gas down the stretch, as Oklahoma pulls away for a solid double digit win.
3 UNIT PLAY
Maryland/ Memphis Over 132
The Over is 4-0 in Terrapins last 4 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 22-8 in their last 30 Saturday games, while the Over is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Ok we all know about how strong the Memphs defense has been down the stretch, but they did just allow CS Northridge to get 70 points in their first round game. Memphis has allowed just 57.6 ppg in their neutral site games this year, but that number jumps to 68.5 ppg when they face a non- Conference USA opponent. THeir 4 neutral site games vs non-conf opponents have averaged 145 ppg. Memphis has allowed just 57.3 ppg overall, but 61.3 ppg vs non-conf opponents. Maryland has put up 71.8 ppg overall, 69.6 ppg in their neutral site games and 73.5 ppg in their last 4 games. I feel that Maryland has an excellent shot at hitting 62+ points in this one. That's good news as the Memphis Tigers should be good for at least 70+. Memphis has averaged 74.3 ppg overall and 70.7 ppg in their neutral site games, plus they have averaged 76.7 ppg vs non-conf opponents this year. The will be facing a maryland team that has struggled on defense when not playimg on their home floor as they have allowed 71.9 ppg when traveling this year. Memphis' non conf games have averaged 138 ppg, while Maryland's games have averaged 140.3 ppg overall. I see this one in the 140's as well.
2 UNIT PLAY
UConn/ Texas A$M over 139
The Over is 5-0 in Aggies last 5 overall, while the Over is 10-2-1 in Huskies last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points and 13-3 in their last 16 neutral site games as a favorite. A&M's neutral sirte games have averaged 144 ppg, while UConn's neutral games have averaged 167.8 ppg. UConn has averaged 78.1 ppg on the year, including 89 ppg in their last 5 games and 91.5 ppg on a neutral floor. The Aggies have averaged 83.4 ppg in their last 5 games 71.8 ppg overall and 73.4 ppg on a neutral floor. Both teams can push the ball and I see this one in the 150's.
1 UNIT PLAY
UCLA/ Villanova Under 145
The Under is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 neutral site games and 9-3 in their last 12 vs. Big East, while the Under is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 non-conference games. The Bruins had been involved in higher scoring than tey were accustomed to during the middle part of the year, but things have reverted back to normal down the stretch as their last 6 games have averaged just 133.5 ppg. The Bruin defense is starting to assert itself once again as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg on just 40% shooting in their last 5 games, while they have allowed just 59.4 ppg on 41.7 shooting in their neutral site games. Villanova has allowed just 67 ppg on the year, including just 67.8 pg in their last 6 games. I just see too much defense in this one to think the teams can top 145 points.
DUNKEL
LA Lakers at Chicago
The high-scoring Lakers (108.1 ppg) face a Chicago team that is 9-2 ATS against good offensive teams (99+ ppg) in the second half of the season. The Bulls are the underdog pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Los Angeles favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2).
Game 501-502: Atlanta at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.127; Cleveland 126.624
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 185
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+8 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Indiana at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.359; Charlotte 122.521
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 9; 189
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: New York at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: New York 117.488; Orlando 126.816
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 12; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+12); Under
Game 507-508: Boston at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.008; Memphis 114.210
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 5; 193 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 509-510: LA Lakers at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.138; Chicago 120.503
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+4 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: Portland at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.606; Milwaukee 116.900
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 185 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: Washington at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 109.327; Phoenix 122.901
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 13 1/2; 231
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Texas vs. Duke
The Blue Devils are coming off an 86-62 win over Binghamton and look to build on their 9-3 ATS record after scoring 80 point or more in their previous game. Duke is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2).
Game 515-516: LSU vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 64.690; North Carolina 77.502
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 13
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 11
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-11)
Game 517-518: Texas vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 65.160; Duke 73.855
Dunkel Line: Duke by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-6 1/2)
Game 519-520: Texas A&M vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 66.587; Connecticut 76.078
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+10)
Game 521-522: UCLA vs. Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 71.127; Villanova 71.566
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Villanova by 2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2)
Game 523-524: Maryland vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 65.640; Memphis 75.730
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 10
Vegas Line: Memphis by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-8 1/2)
Game 525-526: Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 66.717; Oklahoma 71.384
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+7)
Game 527-528: Purdue vs. Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 68.654; Washington 73.058
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 1
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1)
Game 529-530: Western Kentucky vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 61.984; Gonzaga 71.097
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 9
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 11
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+11)
Game 531-532: Baylor vs. Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 65.408; Virginia Tech 72.403
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 7
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-3 1/2)
NHL
Buffalo at NY Rangers
The Sabres dropped their third straight last night against Philadelphia and run into a New York team that is 5-2 in March. The Rangers are the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has New York favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-175).
Game 1-2: Dallas at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.796; San Jose 11.168
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-250); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-250); Under
Game 3-4: Toronto at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.621; Montreal 11.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-230); Over
Game 5-6: NY Islanders at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.592; Ottawa 11.463
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+200); Over
Game 7-8: Columbus at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.007; Florida 10.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+110); Under
Game 9-10: Buffalo at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.080; NY Rangers 13.070
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-175); Under
Game 11-12: Washington at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.260; Carolina 12.057
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-120); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-120); Over
Game 13-14: Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.489; Tampa Bay 10.730
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-105); Over
Game 15-16: Vancouver at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.128; Phoenix 10.615
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-170); Under
Jack Jones
Texas A&M +10.5 over UConn
Thanks to the Huskies dominating win over an under-talented Chattanooga game this spread got stretched a little bit and shows a little value by taking the Aggies. I've been impressed with how A&M has been playing. They easily took care of BYU in the first round which was a surprise after losing to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament, but prior to that had won six straight including wins over Missouri and Texas. The Aggies do a decent job of shooting the three, and the Huskies perimeter defense hasn't been the same since the loss of Dyson. Take the points.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Michigan at Oklahoma
Let's go with the upset here, noting that Michigan is 7-1 ATS in non-conference play, including wins over Duke and UCLA. Every year, a #2 seed falls in the Round of 32 and looking at this year's quartet, Oklahoma appears the most vulnerable. The Sooners are a depth shy team and F Griffin does not appear to be 100%. Wolverines HC John Beilein is an incredible 9-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games. Grab the points.
Play on: Michigan
LT Profits
Villanova -2
Both the Villanova Wildcats and the UCLA Bruins were a bit sloppy in the first round of this tournament, but the bottom line is that Villanova is the better team from the better conference, and the fact that this game is being played in their second home makes this a rather obvious call.
Villanova is 14-2 at home this season while winning by an average of +14.6 points per game. This is significant because the Wildcats played several of those home games right here in Wachovia Center. Sure, that gives them a rather unfair advantage here, but that does not mean we as bettors cannot take advantage of this. Furthermore, the Wildcats accumulated those gaudy home numbers while playing in the deepest conference in the country.
On the flip side, UCLA has been rather ordinary away from home this season, going 9-6 compared to their 17-2 home mark. Even more distressing is the fact that the Bruins are under .500 against the spread away from home, going 6-8-1 ATS while only outscoring their road opponents by a miniscule +1.3 points, and their task will be even tougher here as we believe Villanova represents a huge jump in class from the teams UCLA usually visits.
The only thing that bothers us is that this line looks too easy, but then again, a lot of that has to do with UCLA being overrated, so we will bite on Villanova at a bargain price at home.
Pick: Villanova -2
Nelly
LSU + over North Carolina
North Carolina dominated in round one but the competition takes a huge leap in the second round with a very strong LSU team. The Tigers were easily the top team in the SEC and this is a veteran team with great guard play. The Tigers will be at a disadvantage inside as UNC has great size but with a less than 100 percent Ty Lawson for the Heels, LSU should have the edge in the backcourt. North Carolina's defense has been suspect all season long and against a team with strong guard play the opportunities will be there. In recent games teams like Maryland, NC State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, guards have caused problems for UNC and the Tar Heels have been an atrocious ATS team this season. North Carolina is just 6-15 ATS in the last 21 games and as one of the most public teams in the country the Tar Heels are continually overvalued. Even if Lawson is completely healthy the team could be a bit out of sync and the Tar Heels did not play its best ball down the stretch and early indications are not favorable for Lawson. UNC does catch a favorable venue but this was not a strong ATS team at home and LSU is not a team that is likely to be blown out.
Dave Price
1 Unit Knicks/Magic UNDER 215
This one stays under because of how good Orlando is defensively at home, allowing just 91.7 ppg. Plus, Orlando is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 104.9, OPPONENT 92.9 in these games. Also, Orlando is 11-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The average score was ORLANDO 100.6, OPPONENT 95.2. I'll bet the Under.
Yankee Capper
NHL
Toronto/Montreal Over 6
Vancouver/Phoenix Over 5.5
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
Chicago Bulls +4
NCAA HOOPS
LSU/UNC Over 158
Michigan/Oklahoma Under 135
Villanova -2.5
Evan Altemus
Selection: WESTERN KENTUCKY +11
This game is a match-up of two very hot teams. However, I feel that Gonzaga is slightly over-rated here. The Bulldogs werent particularly impressive against Akron in the 1st round, which is notable given how weak the MAC is this season. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky was very impressive against Illinois, controlling the game by double digits for a good portion of the game. The Hilltoppers have excellent guard play and balanced scoring, which will make defending them a very difficult job for Gonzaga. In addition, even though that several players left from last years tournament team, a bulk of this year?s team got experience playing in the tournament last year. Therefore, they have the confidence of knowing that they were here last year, so the Hilltoppers know that they have capability to make another deep run. Gonzaga is being priced like a top five team here, however I feel that they are a step below the best teams in the country. Particularly in the way they were absolutely blown out by Memphis, as well as allowing UCONN to fly the whole way across the country and still beat them at home. Look for Western Kentucky to keep this game close throughout.
Tom Freese
Texas at Duke
Play: Texas
Duke is 2-8 ATS their last 10 Big Dance games and they are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 Saturday games. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as favorites of 7.0 to 12.5 points and they are 2-9 ATS their last 11 games as Big Dance favorites. Texas is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. The Longhorns are 12-2 ATS off a win by twenty or more points. Rick Barnes team will be in this game right to the end. PLAY ON TEXAS +
Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
PICK: Atlanta Hawks
Oftentimes the best value with a team in the NBA is when they’re on the road as the point spread tends to get too much shading toward the home team. In other words, if the Hawks were hosting the Cavaliers here, Cleveland would likely be laying a very small number but we’ll be very comfortable grabbing a large number of points in this match-up since the Hawks are at Cleveland. One of the keys here is that the Cavaliers have continued to win games so they’re getting a lot of respect from odds makers and bettors alike. What is somewhat “hidden” here is that many of the wins are coming by tight margins and so there is value right now in going against Cleveland.
From March 1st through March 16th the Cavaliers went 8-1 and yet six of those eight wins came by single digit margins. In fact, Cleveland’s average margin in those six wins was less than five points per victory. This included a one point win at Atlanta on March 1st! That makes this a revenge game for the Hawks and it is also is likely to be a point spread filled with value! This is also a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are off of big games with Orlando Tuesday and Portland Thursday. Also, the Cavs have a road game on deck at New Jersey tomorrow. The Hawks should definitely be able to test Cleveland in this spot! Atlanta, through games of March 16th, had a five game winning streak in place and the last four losses the Hawks have suffered have come by an average margin of just 3 points per defeat. They definitely are playing their best basketball of the season as of games through March 16th and they will be up for LeBron James and Company in this spot! Not only is that because of LeBron, it’s also because this is the only game the Hawks have against a conference opponent from March 14th to March 26th. With the Hawks trying to cling to the #4 spot in the conference plus having revenge here, Atlanta is absolutely going to be a “tough out” for the Cavs to “put away” here. Consider a small play on the HAWKS on Saturday afternoon.
Drew Gordon
UCLA +2' vs Villanova, at Philadelphia, PA
With both teams nearly getting eliminated in their opening round contests, it's safe to say they'll both be focused in this one (can you say wake-up call!). I'll admit there's a distinct advantage to playing in Philadelphia for the Wildcats, but that's where their "edges" begin and end, as a focused Bruins team is the superior squad in this match, and it'll show.
First things first, let's be clear: As far as their opening round games, I would be worried a lot more about Villanova than UCLA. You see, VCU is no pushover, they were playing great down the stretch and also happened to match up well with Maynor and Sanders. The same cannot be said for American, who comes to us out of the sorry-ass Patriot League, and we can all agree is a step below VCU. In other words, which team appeared more vulnerable Thursday? Clearly it was Villanova.
The biggest advantage the Bruins have is their outstanding defense, which we saw in full force in the 1st half of Thursday's win over VCU. Look for them to keep their focus for the entire game this afternoon, bringing their lockdown D (60 ppg on 40% shooting L5 games) to Philly this afternoon. Nova also thrives on its defense, but the fact they're allowing 10 more ppg over the same 5-game span has to have their backers worried!
Finally, one match up I expect to make all the difference is Alfred Aboya vs Dante Cunningham. Aboya is an outstanding defender, and his ability to slow down the Wildcats leading scorer will be key, especially after watching Scottie Reynolds struggle mightily over his last 2 games (averaging just 5 ppg over that span)! In the end, I believe UCLA can exploit the same flaws American did Thursday, namely an inconsistent defense that's vulnerable from the perimeter (note: UCLA shoots 40% from 3-point on season), as the Bruins take care of business Saturday afternoon!
Take UCLA plus the points over Villanova in this college hoops match up.
2♦ UCLA
EZ'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Baylor Bears @ Virginia Tech Hokies
(8342Virginia Tech Hokies (-4)
The run and gun style of the Bears plays right into the hands of Virginia
Tech. Baylor will not be able to match the play of Virginia Tech in the
paint and on the boards. The Bears have had a nice run at the end of
the season, but it ends today. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-36 (54.4%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
226 - 154 run 60 %
Saturday UCLA