SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Michigan State (30-6, 20-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) Connecticut (31-4, 16-15 ATS)
Michigan State stifled top-seeded Louisville 64-52 last Sunday as a 6½-point underdog in the Elite Eight, earning a trip to the Final Four at Ford Field, just 90 miles from its East Lansing campus. The Spartans are on a 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS spree, rolling through the NCAA Tournament with a 4-0 SU and ATS mark on the strength of their defense, holding three of four opponents to 62 points or less while averaging 70.5 ppg. In fact, in the last 11 games, Michigan State has held eight opponents under 63 points, including six in the 50s.
Connecticut also heads into the semifinals with a 4-0 SU and ATS mark in the Tournament, capped by an 82-75 victory over third-seeded Missouri as a six-point chalk last Saturday. The Huskies have averaged 87.3 ppg in the Big Dance, while yielding just 62 ppg. UConn’s current four-game pointspread run comes on the heels of a 1-6 ATS slide, though that was all in Big East play and included two SU and ATS setbacks to Pittsburgh – another NCAA top seed that also reached the Elite Eight before bowing out to Villanova, also from the Big East.
This will be Michigan State’s second trip to Ford Field this season, though the last time, they got steamrolled by fellow Final Four qualifier North Carolina, losing 98-63 as a 10-point pup on Dec. 3. The Spartans are back in the Final Four for the first time since 2005, while UConn returns to college basketball’s biggest stage for the first time since winning it all in 2004.
Despite these two squads having a great deal of Tournament success the past decade, they have not met in the Big Dance. They did square off in December 1998, during UConn’s run to its first national championship, with the Huskies rolling 82-68 giving 9½ points at home. Michigan State returned the favor the following season with an 85-66 regular-season home rout as a 7½-point chalk, and the Spartans went on to win the 2000 NCAA Tournament.
UConn is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS on neutral courts this season, with the lone SU loss an exhilarating six-overtime, 127-117 setback to Syracuse in the Big East tourney laying 5½ points. In those nine contests, the Huskies have averaged 88.3 ppg, more than 15 points higher than their opponents (73.2). Michigan State, meanwhile, is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS on neutral floors, playing much tighter games as it has averaged 70.8 ppg and allowed 66.6.
Guard Kalin Lucas leads a balanced Michigan State scoring attack at 14.6 ppg, but center Goran Suton has been key to the Final Four run, putting up 20 points and nine rebounds against Kansas in the Sweet 16, followed by a 19-point, 10-rebound effort against the Cardinals in the round of eight.
Connecticut has four players averaging double-figure scoring, paced by A.J. Price’s 14.7 ppg. Star center Hasheem Thabeet (13.5 ppg, 10.7 rpg) and forward Jeff Adrien (13.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg) both average a double-double, with the 7-foot-3 Thabeet adding 4.2 blocks per game (second in the nation).
The Spartans are on a bundle of ATS runs, including 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 as a neutral-site pup, 6-2 on Saturday and a lengthy 21-8-1 in their last 30 NCAA Tournament starts. The Huskies are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 starts as a chalk of less than seven points, and their 4-0 ATS run through the Tournament has all come from the favorite’s role and follows an 0-7 ATS drought in the Big Dance. Also, UConn is on a 2-5 ATS skid in its last seven Saturday outings.
The under for Michigan State is on tears of 11-4 overall (including the last two in the Tournament), 9-3 after a SU win, 8-2 after an ATS victory, 5-2 on Saturday, 7-3 outside the Big Ten, 39-18-1 with the Spartans as an underdog and 10-4 when the Spartans are a neutral-court ‘dog.
On the flip side, the over for Connecticut is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-1 in the Tournament (all with the Huskies a chalk), 22-8 on neutral floors and 14-3 when the Huskies are favored at a neutral site.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE
(3) Villanova (30-7, 19-14 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (32-4, 15-19 ATS)
Villanova, pursuing its first national title since the stunning run as a No. 8 seed in 1985, held off fellow Big East heavyweight and No. 1 seed Pittsburgh for a 78-76 Elite Eight victory last Saturday as a two-point underdog, moving to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the Big Dance. The Wildcats have ripped off wins in 16 of their last 19 starts en route to the Final Four, going 12-7 ATS in that stretch. Villanova has scored at least 77 points in each of its four Tournament contests, averaging 81 ppg while allowing just 66.5 ppg.
North Carolina, back in the Final Four for a second straight year, has breezed through this year’s Tourney with a 4-0 SU and ATS mark, easily handling second-seeded Oklahoma 72-60 last Sunday as a seven-point chalk to advance. The Tar Heels, who entered the Big Dance on a 2-9 ATS nosedive (9-2 SU), have won all four of their Tournament starts by double digits, averaging a whopping 88.7 ppg while allowing just 66.3 ppg.
The Tar Heels have also gained a little experience at Ford Field this season, having pounded fellow Final Four qualifier Michigan State 98-63 as a 10-point chalk on Dec. 3.
These teams last squared off during Carolina’s run to the 2005 NCAA Tournament title, with the Tar Heels hanging on for a 67-66 Sweet 16 victory but falling far short of covering as a heavy 11-point favorite.
North Carolina is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight neutral-court starts this season, putting up 88 ppg and yielding 71.2 ppg while outshooting opponents by more than eight percentage points (48.9-40.4) and outrebounding them by almost nine per game (40.5-31.9). Villanova is 7-2 SU but just 4-5 ATS at neutral sites this season, though it has cashed in its last three starts in this event, including blowout wins of sixth-seeded UCLA and second-seeded Duke prior to beating Pittsburgh.
Forward Dante Cunningham averages 16.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game to lead a balanced Villanova squad, with five Wildcats averaging at least 9.1 ppg. Guard Scottie Reynolds puts up 15.2 points and 3.7 assists per contests, and fellow guard Corey Fisher averages 10.7 ppg.
All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough paces Carolina with 20.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, but he gets plenty of help from four more Tar Heels who average double figures in scoring, including guards Ty Lawson (16.3 ppg) and Wayne Ellington (15.6 ppg). Lawson also averages 6.5 assists.
The Wildcats are on several spread-covering streaks, including 5-2 in the Tournament, 5-1 as a Big Dance ‘dog, 8-2 on Saturday, 4-1 in non-conference action, 10-3 after an ATS win, 11-5 after a SU win, 6-2 against the ACC and 16-7 as a neutral-site pup.
Likewise, the Tar Heels are on ATS upswings of 38-15 outside the ACC and 7-0 as a neutral-site chalk of seven to 12½-points, and over their last nine NCAA Tournament games, they’ve gone 8-1 SU and ATS, with all eight SU and ATS wins coming by double digits from the favorite’s role. North Carolina’s lone SU and ATS loss in its last nine Tournament contests was in last year’s Final Four, it got drilled by eventual champion Kansas 84-66 as a 2½-point favorite.
On the downside for the Tar Heels, they still carry negative ATS streaks of 3-8 in Saturday starts, 3-8 after a spread-cover and 7-17 after a SU win.
The over for Villanova is on rolls of 5-2 overall, 10-2 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 4-1 on Saturday, 5-2 at neutral sites and 9-4 following a SU win, and the over for North Carolina is on a 5-0 run against Big East foes. But the under for Villanova is on streaks of 9-2 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 against the ACC, 24-9-1 with the Wildcats getting points and 8-2-1 with the ‘Cats as a neutral-site ‘dog.
Furthermore, the under for Carolina is on stretches of 4-1 overall (all on neutral courts), 4-1 in the Tournament (all from the favorite’s role) and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA
NBA
Orlando (56-19, 47-27-1 ATS) at Atlanta (43-33, 41-34-1 ATS)
The Magic bring a three-game road winning streak into Atlanta for a matchup with the Hawks in a Southeast Division battle between playoff-bound teams.
Orlando is coming off Friday’s 116-87 blowout of the Cavaliers, easily cashing as a 3½-point home favorite. The Magic have won seven of eight (4-4 ATS) overall and they haven’t allowed a team to score 100 points since March 23 (five straight games). They also haven’t lost on the road since March 17, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
The Hawks were also in action Friday night, losing 104-92 in Boston, failing to cash as 4½-point ‘dogs. Atlanta has dropped four of its last five overall (SU and ATS), as well as two of its last three (SU and ATS) in front of the home fans. The Hawks have managed to reach triple figures just once in their last eight games and haven’t scored more than 93 in any of their last five.
Orlando has won two of three meetings with Atlanta this season both SU and ATS, including a 106-102 win in Atlanta on Jan. 7 as a two-point road ‘dog. The Magic are 4-2 ATS in the last six series clashes, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 10 meetings.
Orlando is riding a host of ATS streaks, including 8-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 41-19-1 on Saturdays, 58-28-3 on the road, 21-8 against teams with winning records and 4-0 against Southeast Division rivals. The Hawks are on positive ATS runs of 9-4-1 overall, 11-2-1 at home, 9-5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-1 as a home pup and 12-5 at home against teams with winning road records.
For the Magic, the under is 7-3 in their last 10 overall and 7-2 in their last nine as a favorite, but otherwise the team is on “over” runs of 4-1 when they don’t get a day off and 6-2 when they are a road favorite. Atlanta is on “under” stretches of 9-4 at home, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Detroit (36-39, 32-43 ATS) at Philadelphia (39-35, 34-38-2 ATS)
The Sixers try to make it three in a row when they welcome the Pistons into the Wachovia Center.
Philadelphia has rattled off two straight at home, beating the Hawks 98-85 as a two-point chalk on Tuesday and then scoring a 105-95 win over the Bucks as a 7½-point favorite Thursday. The Sixers have won five of their last seven (4-3 ATS) and they’ve averaged 98.2 points per game over their last five while giving up just 93.8 ppg.
Detroit has lost two straight (1-1 ATS), five of seven (SU and ATS) and eight of 11 (5-6 ATS). The Pistons have had trouble scoring putting the ball in the hoop lately, reaching triple figures just once in their last seven games, ironically a 101-97 home win against these Sixers on Sunday, cashing as 2½-point home favorites.
Including Sunday’s victory, the Pistons have won four of the last five in this rivalry (SU and ATS) going back to the final two games of their opening-round best-of-5 playoff series last year. Detroit is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Philly, but the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run in this series.
Detroit is on ATS slides of 11-23 after a non-cover, 0-4 after a straight-up loss, 1-4 on Saturdays and 2-5 overall, but the Pistons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record and 6-2 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home mark. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with a losing record.
For the Pistons, the over is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 5-0 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-1-1 against the Eastern Conference and 5-1-1 after a non-cover. The Sixers are also riding several “over” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 5-2 after a day off, 6-2 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Conversely, though, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
John Ryan
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Orlando Magic -2
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Orlando as they travel to face Atlanta. At this time of the year I must be responsible for all player news and as a result i want to provide these plays with the BEST possible information supporting the AiS graded play. I had released the magic as a 3* Free Member play and they just humiliated the Cavs winning by 29 points in a real laugher. Such a blowout only adds more confidence to this team and a letdown is not likely. if anything another blowout win is in the cards. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 68-31 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2003. Play on road teams that are good defensive teams allowing 41.5-43.5% shooting and facing an average defensive team allowing 43.5-45.5% in a game involving two average rebounding teams posting+/-3 reb/game differentials after 42+ games. Take Orlando.
Craig Trapp
Michigan State vs. Connecticut
Play: UConn -4
Two College basketball super powers square off in the first match up. UCONN and Coach Calhoun look for their third Championship in 10 years. In fact Calhoun has not lost a game in the final four with a perfect 4-0 record. On the other hand Coach Izzo and Michigan State are back in the Final Four the fourth time in the last seven years. But MSU has only won one title in its three previous attempts. The oddsmakers have made UCONN a -4 point favorite and set the total at 133. Lets look at these two teams records and trends!
Team records:
Michigan State: 30-6 SU, 20-13 ATS
Connecticut: 31-4 SU, 17-14 ATS
Recent Trends:
-Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
-Spartans are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 NCAA Tournament games.
-Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
-Huskies are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
When you break down this game everything points to a very close hotly contested contest. The key to this game will be which team dominates the glass. UCONN has dominated the lane against everyone all year and can't imagine that it would stop today. Michigan State played there best game of the year last game against Louisville but today they will struggle to score inside against UCONN big men. UCONN forces teams to beat them from outside and MSU will struggle to find consistent outside scoring. Thabeet, Price, and Adrian will carry this team to the Championship game. SCORE UCONN 73 - MSU 65
Alex Smart
Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs Over 6.0
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter into this Saturday night home tilt against the Montreal Canadiens exhibiting some horrible defensive habits, as was evident last night when they allowed the Philadelphia Flyers to pound them by a 8-5 count. That ugly effort dropped the Buds defensive standing to dead last in the NHL (266 goals). Now on tired legs the porous Toronto D, will now face a Habs side, that is starting to heat up , after winning 4 of their L/5, thanks in part to a power play that has converted on 10 of their L/30 chances . It must be noted that Toronto;s PP killing unit, is allowing their opposition to convert on 33.3 % of their chances in their L/5 trips to the ice. With that said, and despite of both teams current statistical discrepancies, the Leafs won't go easily against their long rivals , which in turn make for I'm betting will be an exciting back and forth affair.
Final notes & Key Trends: Montreal is 11-3-4 on the OVER in their L/18 road games. The Leafs have gone OVER in 7 of their L/10 on no rest. Over is 12-2-2 in their L/16 meetings in Toronto. The last 5 meetings in this series, have seen an average of 7.6 GPG scored.
Play OVER
LT Profits
Michigan State @ Connecticut Under 134
The Michigan State Spartans have gotten to this point with stiff defense, and we feel they will slow the pace of this Final Four matchup with the Connecticut Huskies enough for this game to stay Under the total.
The Under is now 11-4 in the last 15 Michigan State games overall, and they have held their four opponents in this tournament so far to an average of just 61.3 points per game. They held Louisville to 52 points in the Elite Eight by playing deliberately and not turning the ball over, thus not allowing the Cardinals to set up their fast break. Expect an identical game plan vs. this second straight Big East opponent.
As much as Connecticut would prefer a fast pace, they are also no opposed to a half-court game if that is what they have to do to win, and as a result, the Under is a surprising 17-12, 58.6 percent in all Huskies games this season. Also, do not discount the Connecticut defense here either, as they are allowing 63.7 points on only 37.6 percent shooting for the entire season.
While we expect a tightly contested game here that can end on either side of the spread (currently Connecticut -4), we do expect this contest to stay safely Under.
Pick: Michigan State/Connecticut Under 134
James Patrick Sports
Clippers vs. Nuggets
Saturday NBA action has the Clippers heading north to the Mile High City for a match-up with Denver. The Nuggets are Over the Total in 7 of 10 at home versus losing teams and 4 of 5 at home of late. The Clippers are Over the Total in 6 of 7 in Saturday action and at a 19-7-1 ATS rate on the road. James Patrick Sports complimentary selection in Saturday NBA action is Clippers - Suns Over the Total.
Tom Freese
La Clippers at Denver
Denver has had their way with the Clippers going 5-1 ATS their last 6 games when laying 9 or more points. The Nuggets are playing their best defense in years allowing teams to shoot just 44% on the year that is good enough for fourth best in the NBA. The Clippers allow their opponents to shoot 48% which ranks 27th in the league. We like the Nuggets to win easy here and remain the two seed in the Western Conference. PLAY ON DENVER -
DAVE COKIN
MIAMI HEAT VS WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take: MIAMI HEAT
The Wizards put together a huge effort Thursday is shocking Cleveland. I would not expect such vitality from Washington tonight. The Heat are in the second of back to back games on the road but I like their chances of handling Washington tonight, so I'll lean to spotting the number with Miami this evening.
JIM FEIST
MIAMI HEAT / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take: WASHINGTON WIZARDS
A reunion, delayed by 11 months because of one surgery on Gilbert Arenas's left knee and another on Brendan Haywood's right wrist, took place at Verizon Center this week. In the 77th game of the season, the two Washington Wizards shared the floor for the first time, teaming with two old friends in Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler, against an old playoff foe in LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. And they pulled off a 109-101 win as a +9 dog. They also showed some pride playing hard in front of the home fans. They play another home game here, with a tired Miami team coming in. Miami plays its 3rd game in 4 nights, plus the second of a back to back road spot, while the "new look" Wizards are rested. Play the Wizards.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: New York Knicks
The Knicks have performed admirably under head coach Mike D'Antoni this season, especially when playing off back-to-back losses. That's confirmed by their 17-6 ATS mark in this role as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points, including 9-0 the last nine games. They are also 8-3 ATS against the Raptors when playing off back-to-back defeats, including 5-0 ATS at home. In the first of back-to-back grudge games in two nights (these two teams will be at Toronto tomorrow night), look for the Knicks to avenge a 111-100 loss suffered most recently in this series.
Big Al Mcmordie
Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
At 1 pm, our member selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Toronto, as we will fade the Raptors off their streak of five SU/ATS wins in a row. At first glance, one might be tempted to play against New York, as it comes into today's game off three straight road losses. But I wouldn't do that if I were you. Granted, Toronto is "hot,", but NBA road dogs of +2.5 or more points cover just 37% of the time off five SU/ATS wins. Lay the points with Mike D'Antoni's men this afternoon.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Over
The over is 11-3-4 in Montreal's last 18 road games. In their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference opponents the over is 5-1-1. The over is 16-5-5 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 8 overall the over is 5-2-1. The Leafs were beaten 8-5 last night and both of theor goalies were rocked. In their last 10 games played with 0 days rest the over is 7-3. Toronto has played well on Saturday Night's Hockey Night in Canada having played the over in 4 of their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 12-2-2 in Montreal's last 16 trips to Toronto. The over is 22-7-4 in the last 33 meetings. Play the over.
Scott Spreitzer
Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Bucks
Memphis picked up a strong, underdog win last night over Dallas, but that leads to a poor in-season situation for the Grizzlies on Saturday. Memphis is just 7-12 ATS when playing in the second of back-to-back nights. And, they have covered just 7-of-20 when playing the third game in four nights. Tonight's opponent, Milwaukee, hasn't played since Thursday night. The Bucks not only have the rest advantage, but they have owned this series as of late. Milwaukee is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS the last five tilts with Memphis and I expect another big win and cover on Saturday. I'm laying the points with the Bucks.
Nick Parsons
Canucks @ Oilers
Play: Canucks
The Canucks clinched a playoff spot by overcoming an early two-goal deficit to earn a single point before losing to the Ducks on Corey Perry's lone goal of the shootout. They also moved into a tie with Calgary for the Northwest Division lead, one point up on fifth-place Chicago for home-ice advantage in the first round; that being said, I look for this team to continue to play hard as they build momentum for the post-season! The Oilers turned in perhaps their best game in a month. But they were playing the best team in the NHL, and it wasn't enough. They threw everything at the Sharks, hit four goalposts, and couldn't find the equalizer; expect another letdown tonight! Vancouver is 14-8 when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season; play on the CANUCKS!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New York Knicks -2.5
New York returns home after a tough three-game road trip and I expect it to get back on track with a win against a Raptors team that is just 12-25 on the road this season. It's clear that Toronto has a tough time matching tempo with the Knicks and lost 97-127 last time it visited the Big Apple. NY is 13-1 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog this season and 19-4 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season. NY is 12-4 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season and this will be the key as the Raptors won't force enough turnovers to get the job done against New York's run and gun offense. We'll lay the points.