SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (2-3) at Arizona (2-2)
Left-hander Eric Stults (2-3, 3.49 ERA in 2008) makes his 2009 debut for the Dodgers at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, who will counter with right-hander Yusmeiro Petit (3-5, 4.31 ERA last year), also making his first start of the year.
Arizona opened this three-game series by ripping Los Angeles 9-4 Friday night, following a 1-6 skid in its last seven games as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 home contests and 11-3 in their last 14 games against the National League West. The Dodgers won their last six Saturday games last year and are 17-9 in their last 26 games as a favorite, and despite last night’s setback, Los Angeles has still won five of the last six in this rivalry, dating to its run to the division title last year.
Stults has just 25 career major league appearances over the past three years, including 14 starts, with half of those starts comprising all of his 2008 appearances. He’s faced Arizona just once, getting pelted for three runs on three hits in just one-third of an inning in a 12-3 road loss in September 2007.
Stults went 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in four road starts last season, averaging just 4.75 innings per start.
Petit, with 19 appearances last year (eight starts), lost his last two starts, going just 7 2/3 total innings and allowing 10 runs (five in each game) on 12 hits, including four homers. He then came out of the bullpen for his final two appearances, allowing two runs on two hits – both solo homers – in 1 1/3 innings. And with Petit starting, Arizona is on an 0-5 slide in division play.
Petit had nine home appearances last year (five starts), going 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA. In five career outings against the Dodgers, he is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA, with the loss coming last season in his lone start against the Dodgers, a 4-2 road setback.
The over for Arizona is on runs of 6-2 overall, 6-2 in division contests and 4-1 in Petit’s last five starts. In addition, in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-0 in Phoenix, with Friday’s game hurdling the posted price of 10. On the flip side, the under for the Dodgers is on rolls of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in division games and 4-1 on the highway, and the under is 9-2 in Petit’s last 11 starts as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (1-3) at L.A. Angels (2-2)
Right-hander Brad Penny (6-9, 6.27 ERA last year), who had been with the Dodgers since 2004 before moving to Boston in the offseason, returns to Southern California to make his first start with the Red Sox. The Angels are slated to send out left-hander Joe Saunders (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who was solid on opening day.
Los Angeles, in its first game since the tragic death of rookie starter Nick Adenhart early Thursday morning, notched a 6-3 victory over Boston on Friday night to open this three-game set at Angel Stadium. Jared Weaver pitched 6 2/3 innings of four-hit ball, allowing just one run, as the Angels halted a 2-5 overall slide and a 1-4 home skid. L.A. is also riding positive streaks of 24-11 against the AL East and 9-3 on Saturday.
Despite Friday’s setback, the Red Sox remain on an 11-3 tear against the American League West. However, the Angels are now 10-3 in their last 13 clashes against Boston, with the three losses coming in last season’s first-round playoff setback in a best-of-5 series.
Penny, who had 19 appearances (17 starts) last year, played a role in four Dodgers wins in his last four regular-season outings (two starts), going 1-0 with three no-decisions, despite allowing a whopping 10 runs in nine innings. That was mostly due to allowing six runs on six hits (three homers) in three innings of a 7-6 home win over Philadelphia. His last outing was a relief appearance Sept. 15, when he gave up two runs on two hits (one homer) in one inning.
Penny went 3-4 with a 7.12 ERA in nine road appearances (seven starts) last season, and in five career starts against the Angels, he is 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA.
Saunders threw 6 2/3 shutout innings Monday against Oakland, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out two in a 3-0 victory. That continued the 27-year-old’s brilliant play at home, where he went 10-3 with a 2.55 ERA in 15 starts last year, averaging 6.6 innings per start.
Saunders is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox, and the Angels went 4-0 against Boston with Saunders on the mound last year, with the southpaw going 2-0. The second of his two no-decisions came in a 5-4 Angels road win that kept them from getting swept out of the first round of the playoffs, though they ultimately fell in four games.
The under for Boston is on several runs, including 4-1-1 overall, 5-2-1 on the road and 5-2-2 against AL West opponents, and the under for Los Angeles is on stretches of 19-9-2 on Saturday, 4-1-2 against the AL East and 5-1-1 with Saunders toeing the slab. But the over is 5-1-2 in the Halos’ last seven games against right-handers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
NBA
Detroit (39-40, 34-45 ATS) at Indiana (34-45, 43-34-2 ATS)
The Pistons clinched their spot in the playoffs with Friday night’s win over the Nets and now head to Indiana to take on the Pacers, who were eliminated from postseason contention Friday with a loss to the Hawks.
Detroit beat New Jersey 100-93 on Friday but came up short at the window as an eight-point home favorite. The Pistons have now won three straight (2-1 ATS) and topped the 100-point mark in all three victories. They have played solid defense lately, too, allowing just one team to top the century mark in their last 10 contests.
Indiana fell in Atlanta on Friday 122-118 but cashed as a 5½-point ‘dog. The Pacers had won six of eight (SU and ATS) before Friday’s loss, and they have scored 106 points or more in each of their last seven games (5-2 ATS).
The Pistons have won eight of the last nine in this series (5-4 ATS), and the host has taken each of the three meetings this season, but the Pacers have cashed in all three contests. Indiana got a 110-106 overtime win at home on Jan. 14 as a two-point favorite after cashing twice as a ‘dog in Detroit earlier in the season. Still, the Pistons are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings in the Hoosier State.
Detroit is on ATS slides of 1-4 against Central Division teams and 1-5 ATS in Saturday contests. The Pacers are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 5-2 against the Central Division, 6-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-0 on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Pistons have gone over the total in 12 of their last 18 games overall and nine of their last 13 against Eastern Conference teams, but they have stayed under the number in 11 of their last 15 Saturday games. Indiana has topped the total in six of its last seven overall and six of its last nine on Saturday, but otherwise the squad is on “under” streaks of 11-3 at home and 9-4 when they face Eastern Conference teams. In this series, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall and 4-1 the last five clashes in Indiana.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT
Charlotte (35-44, 45-34 ATS) at Chicago (39-40, 41-37-1 ATS)
The Bobcats’ run for the playoffs officially ended on Friday night when they lost in Oklahoma City, and now they have to make the trek to Chicago to face a postseason-bound Bulls’ squad.
Charlotte lost 84-81 to the Thunder last night, failing as a 3½-point road chalk, officially ending the Bobcats’ chances of reaching the postseason. Larry Brown’s squad hadn’t played well since the calendar turned to April, losing four of its last five both SU and ATS, including three straight defeats on the highway.
Chicago has won three straight (2-1 ATS) to earn a return trip to the playoffs, most recently bashing the Sixers 113-99 on Thursday and easily cashing as six-point favorites. The Bulls have won seven of their last nine (5-4 ATS) overall and their offense is red hot, tallying 112 points a game over their last five and shooting 49.2 percent from the field.
Charlotte has won both meetings with Chicago this season and three in a row (SU and ATS) dating to last year. The Bobcats scored a 96-80 home win over the Bulls on March 3 as 1½-point favorites and won 110-101 in overtime back on Dec. 16 as a three-point home pup.
The Bobcats are on ATS runs of 7-2 when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 6-2 on Saturdays and 12-5 against teams with losing records. Chicago is on ATS streaks of 23-11-1 overall, 11-3 at home, 5-2 on Saturdays and 7-2 at home against teams with losing road marks.
Charlotte is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 7-2-1 on Saturdays and 5-0 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Bulls have stayed under the total in five of their last six against the Southeast Division, but they have topped the total in 10 of their last 14 Saturday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Big Al McMordie
Boston Red Sox vs. LAA Angels
Play: LAA Angels
At 4:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Boston Red Sox. It's still unclear whether the Red Sox really lost out in the off-season pitching sweepstakes when they failed to sign either CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett and had to settle instead for John Smoltz and Brad Penny. After all, Sabathia got crushed in the opener against the Orioles and Burnett has a long history of injury problems. And even though Smoltz is out until at least late May, Penny is apparently healthy and ready to go. The problem is that his first assignment as a starter outside of the National League is on the road against the high-powered Angel offense and a team that is playing with a lot of emotion right now following the tragic death of its pitcher Nick Adenhart. Ex-Los Angeles Dodger Brad Penny may feel like this is a homecoming, since he will be getting his first start for the Red Sox back in the L.A. area, but it is unlikely he will get a warm welcome upon his return to southern California. He'll be faced by Angel lefty Joe Saunders, who won on opening day vs. Oakland. Saunders held the Oakland bats to just three hits in 6 2/3 innings, so he looked just as good as he did last season when he won a career-high 17 games. Take the Angels.
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
Horacio Ramirez looks to continue that trend when he makes his first start in more than a year. After starting 20 games for Seattle in 2007, the left-hander worked out of the bullpen for Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox last season, going 1-4 with a 4.34 ERA in 32 relief appearances. Ramirez didn't have a spectacular spring allowing 32 runs including 25 earned and 44 hits in 25 innings but was still awarded a spot in the Royals rotation, which was without a lefty. Ramirez struggled in two relief outings against New York last season, allowing three runs and five hits in one inning. He has been solid against the Yankees as a starter, though, going 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in three career starts.
Sabathia got smoked in his debut in NY but today will face a very poor offensive team. Sabathia made three starts against Kansas City last season before being traded to Milwaukee in July, going 1-2 with a 3.54 ERA. He is 14-10 with a 3.40 ERA lifetime versus the Royals, and 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA in four starts in Kansas City since 2007.
The big difference between these two teams is the offensive fire power of the NYY. Also Sabathia can be dominating and Ramariez had a horrible spring. Enjoy big free winner from Craig Trapp. SCORE NYY 6 - KC 1
Alex Smart
Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals Under 8
Adam Wainwright the St.Louis Cardinals starting pitcher today against the visiting Houston Astros had an uneventful start to his current season , allowing 2 runs and 3 hits, and a staggering 5 walks against the Pirates in his opening day assignment, that eventually saw the young man take the loss by a 6-4 count. He looked good, and theres a lot to like about this kid overall, but the wild stuff was troubling. There is good news on the horizon, as he faces a Astros team that he is 5-0 against in his career as a starter, along with a stingy 2.14 ERA.
Meanwhile, Roy Oswalt his Astros pitching opponent is off a negative reuslt in his first outing despite of pitching well, thanks in part to a offense that did not supply him with very much run support in his teams 5-3 loss to the Cubs. The usually reliable right hander , should be ready to get back on track against a side that he has pitched well against in the past . The veteran thrower owns a 9-5 record along with a 2.86 ERA in 24 career starts against St. Louis and 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA in five starts in the Cardinals new stadium. During that span , in a recurring theme, Oswalt's offense has let him down in a big way, supplying him with an average of 2.8 RPG.
I am betting on these two viable pitchers to go deep and perform admirably here today, in a contest that I project staying below the number.
Final notes & Key Trends: Under is 9-1 in Oswalts last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 12-1 in Oswalts last 13 road starts vs. Cardinals. These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings here in St.Louis.
Play UNDER
Mike Rose
Houston Astros @ St. Louis Cardinals Under 8
Central Division rivals will duke it out at Busch Stadium Saturday afternoon when the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals play the second game of their three-game set. The Cards took the series opener by a 5-3 final tally last night.
Roy Oswalt was a tough luck loser in his first outing of the 2009 season against the Chicago Cubs. He gave up just three runs through seven innings, but got no help from his offense and suffered the loss. The righty has had similar luck against the Cards of late, as his teammates mustered a total of eight runs in his L/3 starts against the Redbirds, and though Oswalt only gave up six runs in those outings, the team is 0-3 for his efforts. He may only be 9-6 in 24 starts against the Cards in his career, but his numbers are stellar. Oswalt has a 2.90 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go with 124 Ks in 164.2 career innings against St. Louis.
Adam Wainwright faces the dubious task of trying to knock off Houston's top arm. He had a shaky first start of the season in a 6-4 loss to the Pirates lasting just 5.2 innings surrendering a pair of runs to go along with five walks. Wainwright's really come on strong these last two seasons, as he has a 3.52 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his L/53 starts. He's gotten the win in 25 of those games (25-13 overall). His career numbers against the Astros are also fantastic! Wainwright is 5-0 in 12 career appearances (six starts) and has held Houston hitters to a .210 batting average against. The Cards have yet to lose against Houston with Wainwright toeing the bump in his young career.
Both of today's starting pitchers have been absolutely lights out against their respective opponent, and neither team's offense would be considered hot right now. The total is a full run lower than last night, but it's hard to picture either team plating five runs in this one.
Dave Cokin
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take: TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Cliff Lee was the nuts last season for Cleveland, but he looks pretty hittable right now. The Indians are stumbling out of the gate once again, and things get no easier here as they have to try and get to Roy Halladay. Toronto is off to a good start and I see the Blue Jays having a solid shot at recording another win today.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Houston with Oswalt
Roy Oswalt looks to get untracked today when he takes the hill in St. Louis in Game Two of this 3-game set. Oswalt came up empty in Houston's season opener when he dropped a 4-2 decision to the Cubs on Monday. He's been especially sharp in this park where he owns a super sharp 1.96 ERA in 13 career team starts. Look for Oswalt to get back on the win track here today.
With the Knicks straight-up win as double-digit dogs over the Magic last night, Marc is now on a terrific 19-7 winning run on NBA Best Bets. His NBA Underdog Game of the Week winner is on tap Saturday night and it's backed by a winning angle inside the game that is 100% perfect ATS since 1990. Don't miss out, get it now - you'll be glad you did!
Tom Freese
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee
Oklahoma City is 5-0 UNDER off an ATS Win and they are 7-2 UNDER as underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Thunder are 4-1 UNDER off a straight up win and they are 9-3 UNDER vs. an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their last game. Milwaukee is 4-1 UNDER when playing with two days of rest and they are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 home games. The Bucks are 11-5 UNDER their last 16 games vs. the Thunder including going 5-2 UNDER the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Tonight on the diamond I will go with the Phillies over the Rockies. To say Philadelphia is sporting a little World Series hangover is an understatement, as the Phils could very well be 0-4 were it not for their improbable 10 run come back win over Atlanta the other day when they received their World Series rings.
Yesterday, they were flattened 10-3 in the Rockies home opener, but I like them to bounce-back from that loss with the win tonight with the wife beater Brett Myers on the mound. For one thing, Brett Myers is already making his second start of the year, and should be sharper than Jorge De La Rosa in his first assignment of the season. For another, Philly did go 5-0 against Colorado in last year's season series as the bats should come alive tonight.
Jeff Benton
I’m on a 9-6 run with free plays the last 15 days, despite Friday’s terrible call on the Rangers. We’ll make up for it Saturday as we head back to the diamond and take the Cardinals against Houston.
Wondering why St. Louis is a fairly hefty chalk in this game despite the fact it is facing Astros ace Roy Oswalt? Well, you won’t wonder after you see this: Redbirds righthander Adam Wainwright is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.32 ERA in 12 career appearances (six starts) against Houston. In those six starts – which have come over the past two seasons – Wainwright has held Houston to two runs or fewer five times, while giving up just three runs on the other occasion, and he’s posted a 2.14 ERA in those six contests.
Meanwhile, Oswalt just can’t seem to buy a break against St. Louis of late. Despite delivering 10 quality starts in a row against the Redbirds, the Astros have only managed to split those 10 games, including going 0-3 in Oswalt’s last three matchups vs. St. Louis, all one-run losses, and all in St. Louis.
Finally, even though it lost 6-4 to Pittsburgh on Opening Day with Wainwright on the bump, St. Louis is still 16-5 in the righthander’s last 21 home starts and 14-3 in his last 17 as a home favorite. Also, the host has dominated this N.L. Central rivalry, winning seven of the last nine clashes, including the Cardinals’ victory on Friday.
By all accounts, Wainwright – who stands 6-foot-7 – is poised for a breakout season in his third big-league campaign, and my money says he dominates the Astros once again today and gets enough of an offensive boost from sluggers Albert Pujols (.314 career average, 4 HRs against Oswalt), Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick to get this win.
3♦ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Scott Delaney
Nothing like a walk-off win to piss off the division favorites. And since Milwaukee doused Chicago’s flame last night, I like our chances with this value chalk on Carlos Zambrano, and will lay the price against Dave Bush, who has struggled mightily against the Cubs, going 1-7 in his career. It was actually quite surprising too, because the Brewers’ rally capped a strange day after they didn't return from San Francisco until 3 a.m. local time, roughly 12 hours before started Braden Looper's first pitch to the Cubs.
I’m guessing it’ll all catch up to the Brew Crew tonight, while the Big Z will be motivated to return to the site where he threw the Cubs' first no-hitter in 36 years. I’m banking on him to build off the momentum of a solid opening-day performance, while helping the Cubbies get back in the win column. He was 1-0 with a 0.43 ERA in three starts against the Brewers last year, including the last time he faced the Brewers on their home turf, on July 29, when he threw eight shutout innings, giving up five runs and striking out nine.
CHICAGO CUBS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday lay a run and a half with Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs.
There's really no rocket science here. I do like the talent on this Milwaukee team for sure as Braun and Fielder are studs and others like Hall, Hardy, Hart and Weeks are pretty solid as well but when push comes to shove the Cubs are still clearly the big brother in this rivalry. Milwaukee had the great ninth inning comeback win on Friday but to be honest with you I love backing teams that are coming off of terrible losses as they seem to rally the next day more times than not.
The pitching matchup also clearly favors the visitors as Zambrano and that heavy sinker is superior to David Bush and his sinker. In the opener Big Z looked great shutting down the Astros in Houston and if you remember back to last season at Miller Park Zambrano threw a no-hitter meaning that he should feel pretty comfortable today. Also it's not like the crowd won't be filled with Cubs fans as they always travel to Milwaukee.
I have no problems with Bush or the Brewers as a whole. They are not bad at all but to get some plus money and all nine at bats makes me believe this thing has 6-2 or so written all over it so laying that extra run is alright with me.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Tough loss last night as the Lakers can’t close and cost us a winner in our Comp Play spot.
That’s fine because we’re getting back on the winning track today as we’re headed to Detroit where we’re taking the Over in the Tigers-Rangers matchup.
The number for this matchup is set at around 10 1/2 runs and considering what these two have done recently, they will blow past that easily.
Yesterday, with the Total set at 10, the teams combined for 17 runs. When these two played in their last game of last season they totaled 21 runs with the total set at 11 1/2.
In their last 10 matchups the Over has come in 7 times as the two have totaled, on average more than 15 runs a game (15.2).
Also in their last 11 games in Detroit the Over is 7-3-1.
These two have put up an average of 19 runs in each of their last two games and will put up more offensive fireworks today. Take the Over in this one today.
3♦ RANGERS-TIGERS OVER
Craig Davis
Let’s keep it going with another easy free play winner on Colorado/Philly OVER the total this afternoon. Why go against a good thing when it continues to hit? The Rockies have gone OVER the posted total in three of their four games so far this year while the Phillies have gone OVER in their last two. Someone please tell me how Brett Myers is going to be able to slow down the home team today when their ace, Cole Hamels, wasn’t able to? Myers opponent today is Jorge De La Rosa, and let me be the first to say this guy alone could help us get to the OVER. His ERA last season was 4.92… his SECOND BEST career ERA for a season since his career started in 2004. It was 5.82 in 2007 and 8.60 in 2006. On the bright side, it has gotten better, but if we’re being honest with each other, this guy is lucky to be starting in Major League Baseball. It says a lot when you’re #5 in the Colorado Rockies rotation… it says you’re not very good.
The OVER is 11-2-1 in the last 14 Rockies games in which they are listed as the underdog and it’s 7-3 in the last 10 Rockies games on natural grass. This game should be OVER by the 6th inning, and we’re glad to list it here for you today as our 6th FREE PLAY winner in seven days.
3♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando -6 at NEW JERSEY
Delivered our second straight FREE winner on Friday when the Orioles got the win at home over the Rays. Today we've got a comp play coming on the hardwood as we go with the Magic visiting New Jersey.
The Magic have won four straight over the Nets and the games haven't really been close, so we'll take our chances with them tonight in New Jersey.
Orlando has won its last two trips to Jersey, winning 102-92 last February as a six-point favorite and winning 95-70 as a four-point chalk back in 2007. These two teams have met twice this season, both in Orlando, and the Magic won them both, but came up short on March 6, winning 105-102 but failing to cover as 9 1/2-point home favorites.
The Nets just have no answer for Dwight Howard in the middle and he usually dominates this matchup. The Magic are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in New Jersey and the chalk is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Jersey is just 7-20 as a home 'dog of 5 to 10 1/2 points and just 17-37-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile the Magic are 59-29-3 ATS on the road, 42-19-1 ATS on Saturdays and 9-4 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
We'll lay the chalk with Orlando tonight and play them in New Jersey. The Magic are strong on the road and they perform well on the second night of a back-to-back.
3♦ ORLANDO