Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona D-backs +145
Lincecum has struggled early on in the season and therefore is not worthy of the hefty juice odds makers are asking bettors to lay on him. In fact, last year's Cy Young winner brings a 7.56 ERA into this contest. The Giants have lost 6 of their last 7 games and they will face a tough task tonight as division rival Arizona will be hungry for a win after getting shut out yesterday. The Giants are 0-7 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series and 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Giants have struggled in the second game of a series no matter who is on the hill as they are 1-4 in Lincecum's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in this series and are showing excellent value today. Take the Snakes.
Jeff Benton
For the second day in a row, the Padres rallied from a big deficit as a huge underdog, this time beating the Phillies on Friday and giving me my seventh straight free-play winner, all in baseball. Not only that, but I’ve hit 16 of my last 22 freebies! Let’s keep it rolling on Saturday as we back the Reds as a small road ‘dog at Houston.
Cincinnati got two runs in the top of the ninth inning yesterday to stun the Astros 2-1, improving to 4-1 in its last five games. Today, the Reds are going with ace Aaron Harang, who looks to have bounced back from a rough 2008, as he’s pitched two gems to start the season. He was a tough-luck 2-1 loser on Opening Day against the Mets and Johan Santana, giving up just a run in five innings, then followed that with Sunday’s 2-0 complete-game shutout victory over the Pirates, scattering three hits, walking none and striking out nine in the nine innings.
Tonight, Harang goes up against an Astros offense that’s been held to three runs or fewer in seven of its 10 games, including scoring two runs or fewer five times. Also, Harang has enjoyed pitching at Minute Maid Park the last few years, giving up just 14 earned runs in his last five starts in Houston covering 44 2/3 innings (2.82 ERA), with the Reds going 4-1.
At the same time, with lefty Wandy Rodriguez on the Hill, Houston has lost four straight home games to Cincinnati, including a pair of 2-1 decisions last August. Throw in the Reds’ 11-4 record in their last 15 starts against southpaw starters and their 21-10 mark in their last 31 when Harang is an underdog, that’s good enough for me. Take the Reds as your eighth consecutive free-play winner!
4♦ CINCINNATI REDS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the coin with the Diamondbacks.
There are certainly some factors going against us today but neither Tim Lincecum nor the Giants right now can be laying a big price.
Last year's Cy Young winner has been flat out awful this season. I watched Lincecum get blasted in San Diego last time out as he just did not have it at all. That may have even been the better outing of his two so far on the young season.
Doug Davis is certainly nobody that I would put my mortgage on or fully trust but he is a lefty and the way the Giants have been hitting, or not hitting I should say, I'll take my chances with the veteran Southpaw.
Both teams have underachieved mightily this season and have yet to really get going. But when it comes to the better overall squad that title clearly belongs to the visiting Diamondbacks as Byrnes, Reynolds, Drew, Hudson and the Snakes are a team that can win the NL West whereas the Giants' ceiling is probably around the .500 mark. San Fran is better than they have shown but me and 10 of my best friends are better than what they have shown so even with some improvement they are not all that at all.
At some point Lincecum will rebound and show that he is great but until he does that I can't pass up this handsome price!
Jake Timlin
Destined for another trip to the NBA finals I look for the Cavaliers to open up the playoffs with a blowout. Yes, now that Boston is going to be without Kevin Garnett - possibly for the entire postseason - the Cavaliers are going to have an easy go of it starting today against a Detroit team they owned this season.
Cleveland has not only won 11 of the last 16 meeting straight-up, including three in a row, but the Cavs have also covered eight of the last nine clashes. Plus, given their 39-2 SU mark at home this season it’s easy to expect Cleveland to continue their dominance here today.
The Pistons closed the regular season by losing six of their last 12 on the floor and 10 of their final 14 versus the oddsmakers. Even worse, they went 1-5 SU/ATS in their final six road outings.
There's not much hope for Detroit in this series and with Cleveland looking to open the postseason with a bang, I expect nothing short of a blowout as the Cavaliers open with a 20-point rout.
PICK: Cleveland Cavaliers
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
The Rangers get their asses handed to them yesterday and snaps our three-game winning streak.
That’s fine as we’re getting back on the winning today as we’re headed to the hardwood where we’re taking the Boston Celtics at home against the visiting Chicago Bulls in the first round of the NBA postseason.
In their last 8 games against Chicago, Boston is on a 7-1 ATS winning streak and has taken 6 of their last 7 SU against the Bulls. Also, over that 7-game stretch the Celtics have outscored the Bulls, on average, 109.1-94.7.
Today, Boston is installed as a favorite of about 8 1/2 points. And in this series the favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings and the home team is on a 5-1 ATS run.
Keep in mind, too, that the Bulls have failed to cover in each of their last 4 games in Boston and have covered in only 12 of their last 37 against the Atlantic Division.
Boston is 7-3 ATS its last 10 games overall and will cover once again against the visiting Bulls. Take the Celtics easily in this one.
3♦ CELTICS
Craig Davis
Today’s 10th free winner in 14 days is on the Boston Celtics. Forget the Kevin Garnett talk, this team has still been winning without him and it’s not like they’ve completely given up because KG can’t play. This is still a team full of professionals that has one goal in mind… REPEAT. Don’t forget that Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and a host of others haven’t forgotten how to play basketball just because they don’t have their main big man. They can still play defense and they still have their two best shooters on the floor. Chicago has had their struggles against the Celts recently, dropping seven of the last eight vs. the Vegas number, losing the last 7 SU by an average of over 16 PPG. That’s pure domination. Celtics roll today and I get FREE PLAY WINNER #10 in 14 days.
3♦ BOSTON
Drew Gordon
LA Angels at MINNESOTA -130
We all know the Twins' Kevin Slowey is better than his current 7.94 ERA, and tonight he gets the perfect match up to prove it. After Friday's ugly 8th inning collapse by the Angels, not to mention the injury to Guerrero, one has to wonder about the Halos psyche right now. They've lost 3 of their last 4 (all on the road), and with a bonafide reliever forced to make the start tonight, all signs point to a solid Twins win in this one.
Speaking of bonafide relievers, southpaw Darren Oliver gets the start for the Angels tonight. While he's got the stuff, I'm not sure we can expect anything more than 5 innings out of Oliver tonight (he went 6 innings in the 2006 NLCS, but that was a long time ago). With the Angels bullpen struggling (8.19 ERA on the season), a relatively short start by Oliver could easily spell their doom.
Also, you have to like what we saw from this Twins offense yesterday, 11 runs on 13 hits, including Jason Kubel hitting for the cycle! Minnesota excelled vs lefties last season, ranking 4th in runs scored (252) and batting a solid .275 against them!
Bottom line, look for Slowey, who had an excellent Spring, to get back on track in this contest. Remember guys, Slowey was 7-4 with a solid 3.38 ERA at the Metrodome last season. We're getting solid value (based on the match up) thanks to his early season struggles, but rest-assured, he'll break out in this contest. While on the flip side, if you want to trust your money with Darren Oliver as the Angels starter, be my guest, but I sure as hell won't. Play on the Twinkies!
Take Minnesota behind Slowey over the LA Angels and Oliver in this MLB match up.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Chicago at BOSTON -8'
You really think the oddsmakers haven't factored in the Kevin Garnett injury into this number? You really think Vegas is going to allow Joe Schmo to win big in tonight's Game 1 of this Eastern Conference series by betting the Bulls? Everyone in the world knows Garnett is not playing, and most average bettors are clamoring to jump aboard the Bulls at this "bargain" price... I couldn't disagree more and here's why:
First of all, make no mistake, this is a statement game for the Celtics. With the world basically giving up on them, the defending champs now finally have something to prove, and the Bulls get to be their measuring stick... Not a good spot to be in for a VERY average Eastern Conference team.
Second, this is not a good match up for Chicago, as they got crushed both times they played at TD Banknorth Garden this season, losing by 18 and 16 points respectively in those contests! In fact, the Bulls are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings against Boston!
Also, let's not forget what happened last season, as the Celtics took the Hawks lightly, and ended up having to fight for their playoff lives because of it. The Celtics won't make the same mistake twice, as the Bulls aren't nearly as good as that Hawks team was, and quite frankly, they're just happy to be here.
Bottom line, against a superior foe, the absence of Garnett will be felt, but not against a much lesser foe like Chicago. In this case, Glen Davis will do just fine, as he's got the offensive skills, and enough knowledge of the system to hold down the defensive end against the Bulls. In the end, look for Boston to make a real statement here, blowing the doors off the Bulls in the process Saturday afternoon.
Take Boston over Chicago in Game 1 of this NBA Playoffs match up.
3♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit at CLEVELAND -11'
Got the FREE winner on Friday with the Padres as they beat the Phillies in Philadelphia and got us some nice plus-money. Today we're on the NBA hardwood with a play on the under in the Pistons-Cavaliers contest from Cleveland.
Forget the spread in this one, concentrate on the total as we have this matchup coming well under the posted number.
When these teams get together, it always seems like the under is the play. Detroit is on under runs of 18-7-1 as a playoff underdog and 24-9-1 when it gets two days off. Now that really tells us something about this veteran team. When they get a little relaxation time and can get the legs fresh, they come out and deliver a dynamic defensive effort.
Cleveland is on a huge run of under plays, inclding 22-8 after a spread-cover, 6-1-1 at home, 4-1 when they get two days off, 7-3-1 as a favorite and a huge 39-19-1 as a home favorite. The Cavs can play defense, no doubt, but can they score enough points, especially in the playoffs. We just don't see it happening today.
LeBron James and his team can shut a squad down when they focus, but if he goes cold and doesn't get some fastbreak, easy points, the Cavs will be tight in this one. Not saying they won't win, but it's going to be one of those classic, ugly Cleveland-Detroit games where the final ends up 85-79.
Definitely take the under in this opener of the seven-game series.
4♦ UNDER
Karl Garrett
Detroit at CLEVELAND
The NBA postseason begins today, and one thing is for certain, Detroit and Cleveland are all set to play another slow it down, grind it out, drag it out affair, as Game One follows the emerging UNDER trend these teams have been posting when they get together.
ALL 4 of the teams regular season games stayed UNDER the total, as Detroit and Cleveland have now played UNDER (postseason included), in 8 straight meetings, and 14 of the last 18 meetings overall.
Obviously, the linesmakers know all about the LOW trend between the teams, but the adjusted total won't matter, as these teams play their 9th in a row UNDER the posted price.
G-Man going LOW in this one boys!
3♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Chicago +8' at BOSTON
Early playoff action this Saturday, and we like the Bulls plus the points to cover at Boston.
While Boston has performed well without the services of Kevin Garnett, winning 15 of 22 in his absence, the same cannot be said against the spread in that span, as the C's went just 9-13 against the spread in those 22.
Chicago was able to snap a 6-game series losing streak the last time they faced Boston in the middle of March, and that shot of confidence will help them stay competitive in this game in Beantown.
The Bulls did win 5 of their final 6 games to close the regular season, with that one loss coming in the season finale against Toronto to drop Chicago to the 7th spot in the East. Still, we give the Bulls a definite shot at staying inside the number in this one, especially with KG watching from the bench.
Play on Chicago.
2♦ CHICAGO
DUNKEL
Houston at Portland
The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and face a Portland team that is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games. The Blazers are the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has Portland favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4).
Game 701-702: Chicago at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.784; Boston 126.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 8 1/2; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-8 1/2); Over
Game 703-704: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.552; Cleveland 130.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 12 1/2; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 175
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-12); Under
Game 705-706: Dallas at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.285; San Antonio 123.736
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4 1/2); Under
Game 707-708: Houston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 123.749; Portland 130.265
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4; 183
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-4); Over
MLB
LA Angels at Minnesota
The Twins are coming off a come-from-behind 11-9 win last night and look to build on their 7-1 record in Kevin Slowey's last 8 starts after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. Minnesota is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130).
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Reyes) 15.260; Pittsburgh (Snell) 13.595
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over
Game 903-904: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 15.187; Washington 15.518
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+145); Over
Game 905-906: Milwaukee at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.304; NY Mets (Santana) 15.481
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-175); Under
Game 907-908: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 14.833; Cubs (Dempster) 16.462
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-130); N/A
Game 909-910: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 13.271; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.474
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over
Game 911-912: San Diego at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Hill) 14.509; Philadelphia (Myers) 16.056
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Under
Game 913-914: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.429; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.635
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-125); Over
Game 915-916: Colorado at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.405; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.565
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Over
Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.206; Toronto (Tallet) 16.363
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over
Game 919-920: LA Angels at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Oliver) 14.066; Minnesota (Slowey) 15.456
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.830; NY Yankees (Wang) 17.045
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.824; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.851
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Over
Game 925-926: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Eaton) 14.471; Boston (Beckett) 16.226
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Under
Game 927-928: Kansas City at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.448; Texas (Millwood) 16.173
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over
Game 929-930: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 16.470; Seattle (Bedard) 14.934
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Over
NHL
Calgary at Chicago
The Flames look to bounce back from their overtime loss in Game One and take advantage of the fact that the road team is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Calgary is the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+135).
Game 73-74: NY Rangers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.278; Washington 12.546
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-200); Over
Game 75-76: Calgary at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.008; Chicago 10.976
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+135); Under
Game 77-78: Columbus at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.445; Detroit 12.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-270); Under
Game 79-80: Montreal at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.051; Boston 13.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Over
JRTips
HOUSTON vs. PORTLAND
The Blazers host the Rockets at the Rose Garden and it will be up to Houston's physical tandem of Ron Artest and Shane Battier to stop Brandon Roy, Portland's top scorer and team leader in this playoff series. Roy, a two-time All-Star is averaging 22.6 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game this season. The Blazers, the youngest team in the playoffs, went 54-28 this season and claimed a share of the Northwest Division title with the Denver Nuggets. The Rockets, the West's fifth seed, finished 53-29, second to the San Antonio Spurs in the Southwest Division. The Blazers have historically had trouble with Houston center Yao Ming, but centers Joel Przybilla and rookie Greg Oden could slow him if they don't get into foul trouble. Oden did not practice Friday because of a sinus infection and is considered a game-time decision for the playoff opener. Roy faces two players that are both considered among the best wing defenders in the league in Battier and Artest, and who are both taller and bigger than him. Artest outweighs Roy by 50 pounds but Portland will use their speed to match their physical play. In the first meeting this season between the two teams, Roy hit a 31-foot 3-pointer in overtime to give the Blazers a 101-99 victory at the Rose Garden but that was a very different Rockets team, with Rafter Alston and Tracy McGrady in the starting lineup. In the series' two games in Houston, Roy was held to 24-of-61 shooting from the field. The Rockets won the first 98-94, led by Artest with 21 points and they won the second 102-88, a night when Roy was 8-for-20 from the floor, which was on April 4th, the last time the Blazers lost. Portland won six straight to close the regular season and the Rockets lost their final regular-season game 95-84 to Dallas, dropping them from a shot at a second-place finish in the West to fifth.Portland hasn't been to the playoffs in six seasons and the Rockets haven't advanced in the playoffs since 1997, having lost six straight first-round series. This young Blazer team ended the season playing better than any team in the league. They are playing with extreme confidence the Rose garden is one of the toughest places to win ij the NBA, just ask the Lakers. Yao Ming has a nagging injury that could slow him down and this will be the start of a breakout playoff series for All-star Brandon Roy, one of the top rising superstars in the NBA. TAKE PORTLAND-4 1/2
John Ryan
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Reds as they face Houston slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 37-17 mark making 27.2 units since 2003. Play against home teams in April with a money line of -100 to -150 after 4 straight games where they committed no errors. Houston is just 118-143 (-42.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game since 1997; 7-18 (-13.1 Units) against the money line after a game without an extra base hit over the last 3 seasons. Reds are in several strong roles noting that they are 30-26 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors over the last 3 seasons; 10-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 3 seasons. Harang is a solid 13-5 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
LT Profits
Pistons/Cavaliers Under 175
The Detroit Pistons and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a history of playing low scoring games against each other, and that should be even further amplified here in the playoffs.
First looking strictly at this season, these teams hooked up four times during the regular season, when teams play looser and thus games are generally higher scoring than playoff games. Despite this, the Under was a perfect 4-0 in those games, and an average combined total score of 171.1 points, which is already nearly four full points less than this posted total.
Secondly, remember that these teams met in a seven-game playoff series two years ago where the home team won every game. Besides the home dominance, the other thing that stood out in those games was defense, and beginning with that series, the last 14 meetings between these teams have averaged 171.2 points with the Under going 11-3.
The personalities of these teams have not changed in the last two years, as evidenced by the four meetings this season, so look for yet another slugfest today with the teams struggling to score more than 170 points again.
Pick: Pistons/Cavaliers Under 175
Tom Freese
Houston at Portland
Portland is 21-8 ATS their last 29 games as favorites and they 6-0 ATS their last 6 home games. The Trailblazers are 7-1 ATS when playing with two days of rest and they are 20-8 ATS off a Straight Up Win. Houston is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games and they are 0-5 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning home record. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS their last 6 road games and they are 8-19 ATS in road games when playing their second game in five days. PLAY ON PORTLAND -