SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (2-0 SU and ATS) at (7) New Orleans (0-2 SU and ATS)
The freefalling Hornets return to New Orleans Arena for Game 3 in a must-win situation against the scorching-hot Nuggets.
For the second straight game Wednesday, Denver hammered New Orleans in posting a 108-93 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Chauncey Billups, who had 36 points in the Game 1 blowout, was again the catalyst, scoring 31 points to pace five Nuggets in double figures, including Carmelo Anthony, who chipped in 22 points and nine assists. The Nuggets are on a 16-3 SU tear (12-7 ATS) since the regular season, breaking 100 points 18 times in that stretch, including the first two games of this series.
Chris Paul (14 points, 13 assists) and David West (21 points, 10 rebounds) both had double-doubles in Game 2, but it wasn’t nearly enough for New Orleans, which committed 17 turnovers and forced just six. The Hornets have dropped their last four games (1-3 ATS) and are now 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts. However, the four-game skid has all come on the road against playoff teams, as they dropped the last two games of the regular season at Houston and at San Antonio.
Denver is 4-2 SU and ATS against New Orleans this season, winning and cashing in the last three meetings and covering in four of the last five. The favorite is on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, though the Nuggets prevailed in their last trip to the Big Easy exactly one month ago, winning 101-88 as a four-point underdog.
New Orleans, which reached the second round last year before falling to the Spurs in seven games, went 28-13 SU (19-21-1 ATS) at home in the regular season. Denver, which hasn’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 1994 and is still just 6-23 in its last 29 playoff contests, went 21-20 SU and ATS on the road in the regular season.
The Nuggets are on positive ATS streaks of 10-4 overall, 10-3 against the West, 9-3 against winning teams and 4-0 against the Southwest Division, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-13 as a playoff underdog and 2-8 in their last 10 first-round playoff games.
The Hornets are on a bundle of pointspread purges, including 2-5 overall, 0-5 against the Northwest Division, 2-7 against the Western Conference, 2-6 laying points and 6-14 after a SU loss. However, New Orleans is on positive ATS runs of 8-2 as a playoff chalk, 8-1 laying less than five points in the postseason, 17-8 as a home favorite of less than five points and 49-23-3 in Saturday games.
The over for Denver is on rolls of 10-4 against winning teams, 7-3 in the West and 5-2 after a SU win, but the under is 5-1 in the Nuggets’ last six road games and 19-7 in their last 26 conference quarterfinal contests. The over for New Orleans is on runs of 10-4 against the Northwest Division and 4-0 after a SU loss, but otherwise the squad is on “under” stretches of 7-2 at home and 10-4 with the Hornets favored.
Finally, the first two games of this series barely hurdled the posted price, and the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
(3) San Antonio (1-2 SU and ATS) vs. (6) Dallas (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Mavericks look to gain a commanding 3-1 advantage in their opening-round best-of-7 Western Conference playoff series when they host the Spurs in the American Airlines Center.
Dallas entertained San Antonio for Game 3 on Thursday and delivered an 88-67 beating, easily covering as a five-point favorite. The Mavs held San Antonio to 32.1 percent shooting and just two Spurs reached double-digits in scoring. Dallas got 20 points and seven rebounds from perennial All-Star Dirk Nowitzki.
San Antonio fell behind by 26 points before the midpoint of the third quarter Thursday, prompting coach Gregg Popovich to pull his starters and rest them for Game 4. As a result, superstar Tim Duncan had just four points and two rebounds and played just 15½ minutes, while Tony Parker had 12 points in less than 20 minutes of court action.
The Spurs have still won five of their last seven overall, but have only covered one of their last four. They’re trying to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the ninth time in the last 13 years. The Mavericks, who have won nine of their last 12 dating to the regular season (7-5 ATS), are attempted to get past the first round after going one-and-done in the playoffs each of the last two years, losing to Golden State in six games (1-5 ATS) in 2007 and then falling to New Orleans in five games (2-3 ATS) last season.
Despite two victories by the host in this series, the road team has still dominated this Texas-sized rivalry, going 15-8 ATS in the last 23 meetings, with the underdog posting a 16-7 ATS mark in those 23 games. However, by cashing in two of the first three in this series, Dallas is now 19-9 ATS in the last 28 series clashes.
San Antonio is 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 conference quarterfinal games, but the Spurs are on pointspread slides of 5-11 against the Western Conference, 2-7 as a playoff ‘dog and 1-5 against Southwest Division teams.
Dallas is on ATS slides 0-5 as a playoff favorite of up to 4½ points, 3-8 as a playoff favorite overall and 6-13 after an ATS win, but the Mavs are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 at home, 5-1 on Saturdays and 5-2 as a favorite of up to 4½ points.
Thursday’s game stayed well below the posted total, after the first two contests in this series hurdled the number. Going back to the regular season, the over remains on a 4-2 streak in this rivalry.
The under has been the play in each of the Spurs’ last six as a playoff ‘dog, but they’re otherwise on “over” streaks of 10-5-1 overall, 6-3-1 when installed as a road ‘dog, 5-3 in first-round postseason action and 11-6-1 as a ‘dog of less than five points. Dallas is on “over” runs of 16-8 as a chalk, 13-6 as a home favorite and 4-2 against teams with winning records. However, the under is 6-2 in the Mavericks last eight at home and 14-3 in their last 17 as a playoff favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) L.A. Lakers (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at (8) Utah (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Jazz got back in this best-of-7 series with a thrilling Game 3 victory and now try to knot things up when they once again host the Lakers inside EnergySolutions Arena.
Deron Williams hit a fadeaway jumper with less than three seconds to play Thursday to lift Utah to an 88-86 victory in Game 3 in Salt Lake City. Utah, which had dropped three straight games in Los Angeles by double digits – one in the regular-season finale and two in this playoff series – was down 13 points late in the third quarter and trailed by eight when the fourth quarter began. However, the Jazz outscored the Lakers 28-18 in the final stanza to win it, thanks in large part to a monster game from center Carlos Boozer (23 points, 20 rebounds).
Los Angeles shot just 36.8 percent from the field in Game 3 and got destroyed on the glass (55-40 rebounding discrepancy). Superstar Kobe Bryant finished with 18 points, but he misfired on 19 of 24 field-goal tries, including clanking a 35-foot potential game-winner at the buzzer. The Lakers, who saw a four-game winning streak end, were also atrocious from the free-throw line (16-for-26) in Game 3.
Despite Thursday’s result, the Lakers are still 9-2 in their last 11 games (but only 6-5 ATS), while the Jazz are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 (though they have cashed in each of the last two games of this series).
The home team has won all six meetings between these squads this season (5-1 ATS) and including last year’s playoff series that went six games, the host has taken 11 of the last 12 in his rivalry and is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 series battles. Overall, going back to Game 5 of the playoffs from last season, Los Angeles is still 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight against the Jazz. However, the Lakers are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 trips to Salt Lake, losing eight of the last 11 at EnergySolutions Arena outright.
Utah has now won 17 of its last 19 contests at home and is 34-8 as a host this season (23-19 ATS). Los Angeles is 29-13 on the road (23-19 ATS), including 8-4 in the last 12 (7-5 ATS).
The Lakers are still on ATS streaks of 6-2 in first-round playoff action, 5-2 as a favorite, 5-2 when playing on Saturday. However, Phil Jackson’s squad has failed to cover in five of its last six on the road and six of its last seven as a playoff chalk.
By cashing in the last two contests, Utah is now on ATS surges of 10-4 in first-round playoff games and 4-1 when playing after one day off. However, the negative pointspread streaks are still plentiful for the Jazz, including 4-11 overall, 3-8 at home, 4-13 versus winning teams, 4-10 against the Western Conference, 0-4 on Saturday, 0-5 after a SU win and 4-15 as an underdog
Thursday’s low-scoring contest snapped an 8-0 “over” streak in this rivalry (5-0 “over” in playoff meetings). Prior to Game 3, both teams had scored at least 100 points in eight consecutive meetings. Still, the over is 19-7 in the last 26 head-to-head battles.
Additionally, as it pertains to the total, Utah remains on “over” runs of 10-3 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 9-3 versus the Western Conference, 35-18 versus the Pacific Division, 41-20-2 as an underdog, 6-3 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 as a playoff pup. For the Lakers, the over is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 5-1 against the Northwest Division, 8-1 versus teams with a winning record and 11-4 on Saturday.
Conversely, the under is 12-2 in Utah’s last 14 home games, 7-2 in L.A.’s last nine on the highway, 12-1 in the Lakers’ last 13 after a SU defeat and 12-5 when the Lakers play after one day of rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(4) Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) at (5) Miami (1-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing home-court advantage in this best-of-7 series with a Game 2 blowout win in Atlanta, the Heat now return to American Airlines Arena for Game 3 against the Hawks.
Miami rebounded from a dismal Game 1 performance to rip Atlanta 108-93 Wednesday as a five-point road underdog. Dwyane Wade (33 points, seven assists) had a big night, but he also got plenty of support from Daequan Cook (20 points), who made 6 of 9 three-point attempts, and Jermaine O’Neal (20 points). After producing just 64 points on 36.6 percent shooting in Game 1 (4-for-23 from three-point range), Miami shot a torrid 55.6 percent from the floor Wednesday, hitting 15 of 26 from beyond the arc (57.7 percent).
The Heat have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts.
Atlanta put six players in double figures in Game 3, but none reached 20 points, with Mike Bibby leading the way at 18. Josh Smith (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Al Horford (11 points, 11 rebounds) both posted double-doubles for the Hawks, who shot 44.2 percent overall but just 30 percent (6 of 20) from long distance. Atlanta, which rolled 90-64 as a 4½-point chalk in Game 1, is now 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests.
The Hawks are 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in six clashes with the Heat this season, and the ATS winner has now alternated in each of the last seven meetings. Miami is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 battles with Atlanta, including 12-3 ATS at home.
Miami went 28-13 SU (20-20-1 ATS) in South Beach this season, while Atlanta was just 16-25 SU (21-20 ATS) on the highway.
Along with their current 4-1 ATS uptick, the Heat are on positive pointspread runs of 4-1 as a favorite, 9-2 as a chalk of less than five points, 4-1 against Southeast Division foes and 6-2 at home. However, they are also carrying ATS skids of 0-4 as a playoff chalk, 17-35-1 laying points in Miami and 20-43-3 after a SU win.
The Hawks, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 as a pup, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-7 after a double-digit home loss, 3-7 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 going on two days’ rest.
The over for Miami is on rolls of 11-3-1 at home, 9-3-1 with the Heat a home chalk and 7-2 against the East, but the under for the Heat is on streaks of 6-1 against winning teams and 6-2 after a SU win. For Atlanta, the “under” is on tears of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 with the Hawks as a ‘dog and 5-2 in the Southeast Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of six meetings this year – with Wednesday’s contest the only one to clear the posted price – and the under is on 5-2 in the last seven battles in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-7) at Boston (10-6)
After a thrilling meeting in Beantown on Friday night, the Red Sox and Yankees continue their weekend series at Fenway Park, with New York’s A.J. Burnett (2-0, 3.20 ERA) scheduled to pitch against former teammate Josh Beckett (2-1, 3.79) in a battle of hard-throwing right-handers.
Boston got a two-run home run from Jason Bay in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie Friday’s game at 4-4, then won it on Kevin Youkilis’ walk-off shot in the bottom of the 11th inning for a 5-4 victory. The Red Sox have now won eight in a row, outscoring their last five opponents by a combined 36-10. As part of the eight-game winning streak, Boston is 7-0 at home, 6-0 against right-handed starters and 5-0 versus division foes. Additionally, the Red Sox are 72-31 in their last 103 games at Fenway Park.
New York had a three-game winning streak snapped with last night’s setback, and while the team has scored 37 runs in its last seven contests, the pitching staff has surrendered 55 runs. Still, Joe Girardi’s club is on surges of 21-9 overall since last season, 12-5 against the A.L. East, 5-1 versus right-handed starters and 16-5 on Saturday.
Even with Friday’s heartbreaking defeat, the Yankees are still 7-4 in their last 11 matchups against the Red Sox (4-2 in Boston). Also, the visitor has had the majority of success lately, winning nine of the last 14 battles.
Beckett picked up a 6-4 home win over Baltimore in is last start a week ago today, despite allowing four runs (three earned) in six innings. Since a dominating season debut when he held the Rays to one run on two hits while striking out 10 in seven innings, Beckett has given up a combined eight runs (seven earned), 14 hits and six walks with 10 strikeouts over 12 innings in his last two starts.
In 12 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, Beckett is 7-4 with a 5.33 ERA, but he went 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA in four starts last year. Also, he’s produced five straight quality starts against New York (2.86 ERA).
Burnett got a no-decision in Sunday’s outing against Cleveland, allowing three runs on three hits in 6 1/3 innings, but he walked seven and struck out just two in his first start at new Yankee Stadium. However, New York rallied for a 7-3 victory, improving to 3-0 in Burnett’s three starts. Burnett has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts going back to last year when he was with Toronto.
Going back to his days with Toronto, Burnett is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox, including 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in three games at Fenway Park (one earned run allowed in 22 2/3 innings). Last year, Burnett pitched in Boston twice, giving up just one unearned run on six hits and five walks while striking out 11 in 13 2/3 innings, winning by scores of 3-0 and 8-1.
Last night’s contest landed right on the posted total, but the over is still 5-2-1 in the last eight series meetings overall and 21-7-1 in the last 28 battles at Fenway. Additionally, the “over” is on streaks of 10-1-1 for the Red Sox overall, 5-1-1 for the Red Sox at home, 7-3-1 for New York overall, 5-1-1 for New York against A.L. East foes and 8-3 for New York against right-handed starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
DUNKEL
LA Lakers at Utah
The Lakers look to bounce back from their Game Three loss and take advantage of a Utah team that 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. Los Angeles is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-4).
Game 519-520: Denver at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.928; New Orleans 121.093
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 194 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+4 1/2); Under
Game 521-522: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 119.865; Dallas 125.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under
Game 523-524: Atlanta at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 118.523; Miami 123.243
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 186
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4); Over
Game 525-526: LA Lakers at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 124.334; Utah 119.226
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 203
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-4); Under
MLB
NY Yankees at Boston
The Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 games as an underdog between +110 and +150, while the Red Sox are just 1-5 in Josh Beckett's last 6 starts against teams with a winning record. New York is the underdog pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+135).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 16.031; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.545
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Cabrera) 14.376; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.503
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-185); Over
Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Marshall) 15.479; St. Louis (Boggs) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over
Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 14.990; Houston (Hampton) 15.819
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-150); Under
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Park) 13.967; Florida (Volstad) 15.367
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-145); Over
Game 961-962: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Johnson) 13.891; Arizona (Scherzer) 14.553
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Over
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (McDonald) 14.608; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.051
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-120); Over
Game 965-966: Pittsburgh at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.341; San Diego (Hill) 15.614
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.668; Oakland (Braden) 15.414
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.962; Boston (Beckett) 15.526
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+135); Over
Game 971-972: Toronto at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Burres) 15.638; White Sox (Buehrle) 16.014
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-155); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 16.538; Cleveland (Pavano) 15.316
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over
Game 975-976: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.248; Baltimore (Hendrickson) 15.103
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+115); Over
Game 977-978: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Miner) 15.873; Kansas City (Davies) 15.347
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Silva) 14.478; LA Angels (Ortega) 15.328
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over
NHL
Anaheim at San Jose
The Sharks look to avoid elimination, but are just 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite while the Ducks are 8-1 in their last 9 road games. Anaheim is the underdog pick (+175) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+175).
Game 35-36: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.576; Philadelphia 11.639
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Under
Game 41-42: Calgary at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.756; Chicago 12.228
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-155); Over
Game 43-44: Anaheim at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.447; San Jose 10.436
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+175); Under
Marc Lawrence
NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox
The Yankees and Red Sox get it on in Game Two of this bitter rivalry at Fenway Park this afternoon when A.J. Burnett takes the hill for New York. For opener, Burnett loves hurling in the Bronx where he is 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA in his MLB career team starts. He's also 5-1 in his last six road starts during the opening month of April. Look for Burnett to pay his first big dividend for New York here today when the Pinstripes to improve to 10-1 away on Saturdays here this afternoon.
Play on: NY Yankees
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets
Home court advantage is so crucial in the Western Conference. In 11 games played thus far, we've seen exactly two wins posted by the road team. New Orleans fits the mode perfectly as they are essentially a .500 team away from home, but 28-13 SU on this floor during the regular season. More importantly, they are 20-5 vs. the number at home playing with same season revenge.
Play on: New Orleans
Jeff Hochman
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox
Since 2006, Mark Buehrle has held the Blue Jays to a .189 batting average. Buehrle has been excellent at US Cellular Field off a team loss in his career. The Blue Jays will be starting Brian Burres who has struggled this year down below. Brian Burres is 0-2 in two starts and one relief appearance in Triple-A this year, with an ERA of 6.97 in 10 1/3 innings. Play the White Sox!
Cajun Sports
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park will be the site of tonight’s game two in this four-game set between the host Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Texas Rangers. The Rangers were able to grab game one on Friday night with a 5 to 4 win. The Orioles will be looking to even the series behind left-hander Mark Hendrickson who got buried the last time he faced this Rangers team back on April 15 in Texas. In that game Hendrickson lasted 3.7 innings giving up 9 runs two of which were earned on 7 hits in a 19 to 6 beating. Hendrickson is 1-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.86 but his home record is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.69. His only outing at home this year saw him get the win over the Tampa Bay Rays 5 to 4 pitching 5.3 innings giving up one run on six hits. The Orioles are 6-3 W/L at home this season averaging 5.7 runs per game with a .290 batting average and an OBP of .374. Texas is 6-9 W/L on the season which includes a record of 1-5 W/L on the highway averaging 3.8 runs per game and a batting average of only .187. They will send right-hander Scott Feldman to the bump who has pitched in three games this season for a total of 6.7 innings of work with an ERA of 12.15 and a WHIP of 2.239. He has given up 9 earned runs on 11 hits including three homeruns, four bases on balls and six strikeouts. Our Team Efficiency Index shows the Orioles with 55 percent while the Rangers are only 25 percent efficient. Combine this with the TPR Index projection which have the Orioles defeating the Rangers by 1.65 runs in tonight’s clash we will back the host here as they bounce back and even this series on Saturday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Baltimore Orioles 7 Texas Rangers 5
Craig Trapp
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: New York Yankees
Craig had a good day overall yesterday going 3-1 with his premium plays. Unfortunately we lost our free play as the Reds walked 2 runs in to cost us the win. Tough loss yesterday but today Craig is going to have huge bounce back win. Our free play is in the Rivalry Game 2 Boston Red Sox hosting New York Yankees. Lets look at the trends and records for this match up.
Records:
New York Yankees 9-7 Burnett 2-0 (3.20 ERA)
Boston Red Sox 10-6 Beckett 2-1 (3.79 ERA)
Betting Trends:
Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150
Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. American League East.
Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Red Sox are 1-5 in Becketts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
The Yankees broke open the war chest in the off season and signed the best two pitchers available (Burnett and Sabathia). So far Burnett has been very good but he was really acquired because historically he has had huge success against Boston. The veteran right-hander is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in eight career starts versus Boston even better at Fenway Park he is 3-0 with .40 ERA. After Boston had another classic win in this great rivalry series on Friday the NYY will be super motivated and win in a run away. NY has not lost a game Burnett has pitched yet and they keep it that way today! SCORE NYY 6 - BOS 1
Mike Rose
Miami Heat -4
Absolutely everything went right for the Hawks in Game 1 of this series. All five starters scored in double figures (as did Zaza Pachulia off the bench), and the defense was simply stifling; particularly in the second half. Six players reached double digits again in Game 2 of the series, but the defense which held Miami to 36.6% shooting in Game 1 was awful and gave up 55.6% from the floor in Game 2. Don't blame F Josh Smith, though. Smith has excelled in this series, recording double-doubles in both outings. He also leads the team for the series in steals (five) and blocks (three). For a team that held its opponents to 96.5 points per game in the regular season, Atlanta should be getting better defensive efforts from guard's Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson.
Though he wasn't the only reason the Heat lost Game 1, G Dwayne Wade was a huge part of the problem. He only shot 8/21 from the floor and turned the ball over eight times. He still led Miami in scoring with 19 points, but that's not saying much for a team that only mustered 25 total points in the second half. Game 2 was a completely different story for the former Marquette star though. He shot 11/20 from the field and 6/10 from beyond the arc for 33 points. He also dished out seven dimes and hauled in five boards. Keep an eye on both G Daequan Cook and F Michael Beasley, both of which are contributing solid minutes to the Heat off the bench. The duo combined for 32 points and 11 boards in Game 2 and can be counted on for more good minutes in the remainder of this series.
It's hard not to like Miami's chances in this series from here. In Game 2, the Heat had the swagger of the team that won the NBA Championship just a few years ago. Miami went 28-13 at American Airlines Arena this season, while Atlanta went just 16-25 away from Phillips Arena. The Hawks are only 6-15 ATS in their L/21 games with Miami, and an even worse 3-12 ATS away from home. Expect the hosts to go ahead in this series on Saturday night.
JIM FEIST
MINNESOTA TWINS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
Take: MINNESOTA TWINS
Minnesota's offense has been clicking and the pitching staff caught a break this week with two off days. Cleveland, meanwhile, plays its 5th straight game here. It's tough to back Carl Pavano as a favorite, at 0-2 with a 9.69 ERA. The Twins are 2-1 in the three starts by Kevin Slowey, averaging 6 runs per game in his starts. A good situational spot for the road dog. Play the Twins.
James Patrick Sports
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Arizona has had their way with San Francisco winning 17 of 27 games in the dessert and they owe one to Randy Johnson for a loss in the Bay Area last weekend. Our Saturday complimentary selection in Major League Baseball is Arizona Diamondbacks.
Tom Freese
Pittsburgh at San Diego
Pittsburgh is 6-1 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record and they are 5-2 UNDER in game two of a series. The Pirates are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 games overall and they 5-2 UNDER when Zach Duke is off a loss. San Diego is 7-3 UNDER their last 10 home games and they are 35-16 UNDER their last 51 games as home favorites. The Padres are 7-2 UNDER vs. NL Central teams and they are 4-1 UNDER their last 5 games with the Pirates. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Duke vs. Hill)
ROCKETMAN
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Play: NY Yankees
NY Yankees are scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road and 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters. Burnett is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA overall this year and 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this season. Burnett is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA overall vs Boston since 1997. Yankees are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass. Red Sox are 1-5 in Becketts last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 0-4 in Becketts last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Yankees are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Boston. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Yankees today!
Big Al McMordie
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
At 4:10pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. Righthander and second-year player for the Cardinals, Mitchell Boggs, had a shot at the fifth starter job going into the preseason, but he was passed by little-known P.J. Walters when he got injured slightly during spring training. But Boggs is healthy again and looked good in his one relief appearance, while Walters struggled a bit in his only start, so now Boggs has taken Walters' place. This move was expected, as Boggs was always the guy the Cards hoped would emerge at the back end of the rotation, as he had flourished in the last three years starting games in the minors at the A, AA, and AAA levels, having winning records at each level, and low ERAs with plenty of strikeouts. Righthander Sean Marshall is supposedly the Cubs' fifth starter although he had two relief appearances before his first start, and in 2008 Marshall was used primarily out of the bullpen, so it's unclear exactly what role he will have as the season progresses. Ironically, Marshall's only start thus far came against this St. Louis team on 4/16, a game which the Cards won quite easily, 7-4. The Cubs offense is struggling a bit right now with only the 11th best batting average in the National League (.254) and only 66 total runs scored, which is 22 fewer than the Cards. Take St. Louis.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +100
After 3 straight losses, I expect the Cubs to bounce back strong this afternoon against a team they have had lots of success against. Chicago is 12-6 in St. Louis over the last 3 seasons. The Cards struggle against lefty starters, averaging just 4.4 runs per game against them this season compared to the 6.2 they are averaging in all games. So that gives the Cubs the edge on the mound with Marshall against Boggs today. Plus, the Cubs are 12-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons, 42-16 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons, and 23-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Cubs in this bounce back spot.
Drew Gordon
Tampa Bay at OAKLAND +110
While some believe the Rays offense may have finally awakened after a slow start in the early going, I'm not convinced just yet. One good game against a very green lefty in Trevor Cahill hardly accounts for a "breakout" effort! Look for the Rays offense to cool off considerably tonight, as they face-off against a lefty Dallas Braden, who despite his 1-2 record has been rock-solid thus far, posting a 2.79 ERA.
Speaking of Braden, he's coming off a hard luck loss where he allowed just 1 run over 7 1/3 innings at Toronto, only to get outdueled by Ricky Romero who threw 7 scoreless. Needless to say, the Blue Jays were hot and Braden dumped a bucket of ice on their offense. In the start prior, he allowed 2 runs over 6 innings to the powerhouse Red Sox offense... So don't tell me that the A's lefty can't handle the Rays offense, despite some poor efforts in the past, he's pitching great right now.
On the flip side, we all know how good Matt Garza can be, but right now you got to be little concerned with his last start, getting tagged for 7 runs in 5 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Granted, this A's offense isn't exactly on fire, but they will benefit from seeing their first righty in their last 7 games! Teams are happy to take advantage of the A's deficiencies against southpaws, but not today, as Garza gets the nod.
Finally, it came as no surprise that Kazmir outdueled Cahill yesterday, but with 5 straight losses, I'm expecting a desperate Oakland team to bring out the bats in their first match up against a righty in 7 games. They need to get back on track, and Braden is just the pitcher to do it. He's been locked in, and with the Rays offense hardly consistent at this point, this is a good spot to grab some of that plus money.
Take Oakland behind Braden over Tampa Bay and Garza in this MLB match up.
2♦ OAKLAND