SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Denver (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS) at (6) Dallas (4-3 SU and ATS)
The Mavericks look to climb out of a 2-0 deficit in this best-of-7 conference semifinal series when they return home to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 against the torrid Nuggets.
For the second straight game, Denver made a fourth-quarter surge to put Dallas away, winning 117-105 Tuesday night as a seven-point home chalk. Center Nene (25 points, eight rebounds) and star forward Carmelo Anthony (25 points, five assists) led the way, and Chauncey Billups had 18 points and eight assists. The Nuggets, shooting a sterling 52.3 percent in the series, are on a 20-4 SU tear (16-8 ATS).
Dirk Nowitzki racked up 35 points and nine rebounds in a losing cause for Dallas in Game 2, but only two other players reached double figures – Jason Terry (21 points) and Antoine Wright (10). Dallas made 23 of 30 free throws, but Denver had 10 more free-throw attempts, making 31 in all. The Mavs, shooting a respectable 48.1 percent against the Nuggets, have lost SU and ATS in both games in this series after entering on a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS run.
Denver is now 9-1 SU and ATS in its last 10 meetings with Dallas, including 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets have also cashed on their last four trips to Dallas (3-1 SU).
Dallas is 34-9 SU (21-22 ATS) at home this year, and Denver is 22-21 SU and ATS on the road.
Not only have the Nuggets cashed in every postseason game to this point, but they’re are on additional pointspread sprees of 15-4 overall, 15-3 against the Western Conference, 14-3 against winning teams and 9-0 against the Southwest Division. The Mavericks are on an 8-18 ATS plunge against the Northwest Division, but they are on ATS upswings of 6-1 at home, 17-6 after a non-cover and 13-5 following a SU loss.
The over for Dallas is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2 in second-round playoff games and 14-6 with the Mavs a home chalk, but the under is on rolls of 9-1 when Mavs are a playoff chalk of less than five points and 4-1 for the Mavericks at home. Likewise, the under for Denver is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-1 on the highway, 21-8 with the Nuggets catching points and 18-4 with the Nuggets as a playoff pup.
Finally, the under is 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in this rivalry (including 4-1 in the last five), and the total has stayed low in eight of the last 10 clashes in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (6-0 SU and ATS) at (4) Atlanta (4-5 SU and ATS)
After a pair of blowout home wins, the Cavaliers take their perfect postseason mark on the road to face the desperate Hawks at Philips Arena.
Cleveland pounded Atlanta 105-85 Thursday night as a heavy 12½-point chalk to take a 2-0 series lead, again riding its stifling defense to an easy victory. The Cavs allowed just 35 first-half points, taking a 24-point lead into the break. LeBron James paced the rout with 27 points, five assists and four steals. Cleveland hit 53.5 percent from the floor (38 of 71) while holding Atlanta to just 34.9 percent (29 of 83), and the Cavs have now won all six of their playoff starts by double digits.
The Hawks couldn’t get a single player to 20 points in Game 2, with Maurice Evans managing a team-high 16. Joe Johnson, the squad’s leading scorer this season, had just 10 points on 5-for-15 shooting, leaving late in the third quarter with an ankle injury that could limit him tonight. The SU winner has cashed in each of the Hawks’ nine playoff games, with every one of those contests decided by double digits.
Cleveland, allowing a suffocating 78.2 ppg in the playoffs while scoring 96.3, is now 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in the season series with Atlanta. The favorite has cashed in 18 of the last 26 meetings, and the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 visits to Philips Arena. However, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.
Cleveland is 29-14 SU (24-19 ATS) on the highway this year, and Atlanta is 34-11 SU (25-19-1 ATS) in the home jerseys.
The Cavaliers are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 10-0 overall, 9-0 after a SU win, 7-0 in second-round playoff games, 4-0 on the road and 16-3 as a playoff chalk. The Hawks are on ATS upswings of 14-6-1 at home and 8-2 as a home pup, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-8 as an underdog and 1-5 catching points in the playoffs.
The under for Cleveland is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 15-5 in conference semifinal games and 7-1 when favored in the postseason. Likewise, the under for Atlanta is on tears of 8-3 overall, 11-3 against winning teams and 6-0 with the Hawks as a playoff pup.
In this rivalry, though, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings (1-1 in this series).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago (16-14) at Milwaukee (18-13)
The Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (2-1, 4.86 ERA) makes his second start of the season at Miller Park when he squares off against Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 3.02) in the middle game of a weekend series between N.L. Central rivals.
Milwaukee got a two-run homer from Ryan Braun in the eighth inning Friday night to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 victory. The Brewers have won nine of their last 12 and 13 of their last 16 overall. Additionally, they’re on runs of 7-2 at home, 7-1 against N.L. Central rivals, 8-2 as a favorite and 10-4 against right-handed starters, but they have lost six of their last eight on Saturday.
Despite blowing Friday’s contest, the Cubs are still 6-2 in their last eight games, a run that comes on the heels of a 2-7 slump. Chicago is also 6-2 in its last eight Saturday contests, but Lou Pineilla’s club has now lost six straight games as an underdog.
These rivals have now split four meetings this season – all in Milwaukee – but the Cubs are still 9-5 in the last 14 battles overall and 8-4 in their last 12 at Miller Park.
Dempster is coming off Monday’s 4-2 home win over the Giants, allowing both runs on five hits in seven innings. However, the veteran right-hander has struggled on the road, going 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts, though the one victory came on April 12 in Milwaukee when Dempster gave up four runs in six innings, prevailing 8-5. Going back to last year, the Cubs are 1-5 in Dempster’s last six road outings, but they’re 5-0 in his last five outings on Saturday.
For his career, Dempster is 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 10 saves in 36 appearances (14 starts) against the Brewers, including 4-1 with a 2.33 ERA and six saves in 19 games (seven starts) at Miller Park.
Gallardo delivered his fourth consecutive quality start at Pittsburgh on Monday, yielding three runs in seven innings but he failed to earn a decision as Milwaukee rallied for a 7-4 victory, improving to 3-0 in the right-hander’s last three starts. Gallardo is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA in two outings at Miller Park.
Milwaukee has won five of Gallardo’s last six starts versus N.L. Central rivals. He’s faced Chicago twice, giving up five runs in 12 innings (3.75 ERA) with the Brewers splitting both contests on the road.
For Chicago, the “over” is on runs of 9-3-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road, 11-5-1 as an underdog, 7-2 against right-handed starters and 8-4-2 against divisional rivals. The over is also 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last five overall and 6-2 in its last eight against N.L. Central foes, but the under has been the play in each of the Brewers’ last six home games and is on additional runs of 11-4 for Milwaukee against right-handed starters and 9-2 with Gallardo on the hill.
Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 12-5-2 overall, 14-5-2 in Milwaukee, and 4-1 when Dempster faces Chicago.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (14-17) at Boston (19-11)
Two lefties off to subpar starts to the 2009 season square off at Fenway Park, with the Rays’ Scott Kazmir (3-3, 6.00) set to oppose Jon Lester (2-2, 5.11).
Boston fell behind 3-0 halfway through Friday’s series-opener against Tampa Bay, but rallied for seven unanswered runs to cruise to the 7-3 victory. The Red Sox are on impressive streaks of 17-5 overall, 76-32 at Fenway Park, 11-3 against division rivals, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-0 against southpaw starters and 16-2 when playing on grass.
Tampa Bay has followed up a 4-11 slump by going 6-3 in its last nine. The Rays have also won six of their last nine against the A.L. East. But otherwise Joe Maddon’s club is in funks of 6-9 on the road, 1-8 versus left-handed starters and 0-6 on Saturday.
The Rays lead the season series 5-3, but they’re still just 15-49 in their last 64 games at Fenway Park (playoffs included).
Kazmir has given up six earned runs in three of his last four starts, losing all three contests, including Monday’s 8-4 home setback to the Orioles. However, two of Kazmir’s three wins have come on the road, including a 7-2 victory at Boston on April 8 when he surrendered just a single run on five hits in six innings. Overall, Kazmir is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts on the highway.
Including the April 8 win in Boston in his 2009 season debut, Kazmir is 7-7 with a 3.52 ERA in 22 career regular-season starts against the Red Sox, including 5-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts at Fenway Park. Also, Tampa Bay has won 14 of Kazmir’s last 17 starts on Saturday and 14 of his last 20 against teams with a winning record.
Lester beat the Yankees 6-4 in New York on Monday, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out 10 over seven innings. The southpaw was terrific in his last two home efforts, holding the Yankees and Orioles to a combined two runs on 11 hits with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.
With Lester on the hill, Boston is on runs of 39-17 overall (4-0 overall), 22-4 at home and 20-8 against the A.L. East. Also, including two playoff starts in October, Lester is 4-3 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against Tampa Bay. However, he lost to Kazmir on April 8, giving up five runs on eight hits in five innings of that 7-2 defeat. Prior to that, Boston had gone 7-0 with Lester pitching against the Rays in the regular season.
The over is 16-5 in Kazmir’s last 21 outings overall, 6-1 in his last seven on the highway, 10-1 in his last 11 against divisional rivals and 8-0 in his last eight against the Red Sox and 4-0 in his last four at Fenway Park. Additionally, the Red Sox have topped the total in six of Lester’s last eight home starts, each his last four starts on Saturday and each his last eight starts in the second game of a series.
Boston carries “over” trends of 19-7-3 overall (7-2-2 last 11), 9-2 versus left-handed starters, 6-2-1 at home and 11-3-2 against losing teams. Finally, the over/under had alternated in the first seven head-to-head meetings this season before Friday’s game landed right on the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Charlie Scott
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Under 209
The main reason I played this UNDER is that a whole lot of breaks will have to take place to go Over 210. It is much easier for games to stay Under high totals in the Playoffs than go Over. One team could come out flat, or have a bad day from the Free Throw line and boom, an easy Under. In the NBA Playoffs, teams (even Dallas) will make an effort on defense, Teams don't give up easy lay ups on defense in the Playoffs like they do in the regular season. If You like trends : Denver is 7-1 Under their last 8 Road games. The Under is 8-2 the last 10 games in Dallas vs Denver.
Cajun Sports
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Seattle Mariners
The Metrodome will be the site of tonight’s second game of a three-game set in the Twin Cities between the host Minnesota Twins and the visiting Seattle Mariners. The Twins captured the first game on Friday night by an 11 to 0 final. Tonight’s game features a rematch between the two starters with Felix Hernandez taking the first matchup over Francisco Liriano and the Twins by a score of 6 to 1 back on April 6th here in the Twin Cities. Hernandez went eight innings giving up one earned run on five hits while Liriano pitched seven innings giving up four earned runs on four hits in the loss. Hernandez is 3-2 W/L with an ERA of 2.23 and a WHIP of 0.970 against the Twins, the Mariners are 5-2 W/L (+2.1) overall when Hernandez takes the bump versus Minnesota. Liriano is 2-2 W/L with an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 0.903 versus the Mariners, the Twins are 2-3 W/L (-2.5) overall when Liriano takes the mound versus Seattle. Comparing their bullpen support we see that the Mariners have the edge here as well with an ERA of 4.50 on the road and the Twins bullpen checks in with an ERA of 6.34 in the Metrodome this season. Seattle has handled left-handers this season going 8-1 W/L (+8.0) including a perfect 4-0 W/L on the road averaging 5.9 runs per game against them. Minnesota is 9-12 W/L (-4.4) versus right-handed pitching averaging only 4.5 runs per game. On the technical front we see that Hernandez is 13-4 (+12.7) as a road underdog of +100 or higher the last 2 seasons and the Twins are 0-5 W/L in Liriano’s last five starts as a favorite. Minnesota is 2-7 W/L their last nine when facing a team with a winning record and Seattle is 5-2 W/L their last seven facing a team with a losing record this season. Seattle is active in a MLB System that tells us to Play On MLB (AL) underdogs with a team whose OBP is .320 or worse against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better, with a starting pitcher who averages more than 6.5 innings per start, 56-33 W/L (+41.0) the last five seasons. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Mariners win by 1.0 runs in tonight’s contest so we will back the visitor as Seattle cashes the winning ticket in the Twin Cities on Saturday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Seattle Mariners 3 Minnesota Twins 2
Craig Trapp
Kansas City Royals vs. LAA Angels
Play: Kansas City Royals
Saturday's Free Play for Hanicapper Craig Trapp is in the late American League matchup. Make sure you shop around as there is a huge difference at some sites I have seen this play as low as -110!! Check out the records, trends, and free breakdown winner!
Records
Kansas City Royals 18-12, 7-6 away (Greinke 6-0, 0.40 ERA)
Los Angeles Angels 14-14, 8-7 home (Saunders 4-1, 3.29 ERA)
Betting Trends
Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Grienke has been amazing with the most wins and the best ERA. He has not just been winning games but has been shutting down every batter in baseball. LAA has been playing better latley but still are not even close to as consistent as KC has been. Grienke will have another stellar start going 8 innings only giving up 1 run. The bats also get it done for KC and bust up Saunders in the 5th inning. SCORE KC 4 - LAA 2
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Seattle w/Hernandez
When the Mariners meet the Twins in Minnesota Saturday night they will send Feliz Hernandez to the mound knowing he is in terrific KW form with 4 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 5-2 in his career team starts in this series. Look for King Felix to improve to 8-3 on Saturdays here today.
James Patrick Sports
Blackhawks vs. Canucks
Game #5 in this Playoff match up and the action will be intense as one mistake could turn the series around for one of these teams. We'll take our Saturday NHL complimentary selection is Vancouver Canucks in their home game as they are 19-7 against the Blackhawks in the past 26 meetings including 12-3 in the Great Northwest
Big Al McMordie
Pirates vs Mets
Pick: Mets
At 1:10pm our complimentary selection is on the New York Mets over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Mets righthander John Maine may just be the best starter in baseball who has an ERA over five runs. Maine is currently 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA but those numbers don't tell the entire story about what has been a very interesting season so far for the six-year veteran. Despite the inflated ERA, Maine has only surrendered 22 hits in almost 28 innings of work, although he has been issuing far too many walks. But in his last home start on April 27 against Florida, Maine seemed to put it all together with six innings of one-hit ball, and he managed to keep his walks down (to three) in that outing as well. He is on a bit of a roll also, with wins in each of his last two starts, and that no doubt is good news for him and this ball club. Despite the second-best team ERA in the National League, the Pirates are struggling with a 12-17 overall record, clearly a result of very poor offensive production. There aren't too many teams in the Majors who would count their catcher as their #1 or 2 offensive weapon, but the Pirates are one of those teams, and the loss of regular backstop Ryan Doumit has no doubt hurt this team's production dramatically. Pittsburgh will have to get used to this for a while as it looks like Doumit won't be back from his broken wrist until at least the end of June. In their last nine games the Pirates have only scored a total of 24 runs, or an average of less than three per game, and they have been shut out in three of those nine contests. Take the Mets.
DUNKEL
Denver at Dallas
The Mavs face a must-win situation and will look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games. Dallas is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4).
Game 721-722: Denver at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.253; Dallas 128.347
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 209
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under
Game 723-724: Cleveland at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.711; Atlanta 120.621
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 180
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-8); Over
MLB
Tampa Bay at Boston
The look to bounce back from last night's loss and build on their 4-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 5 starts as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Tampa Bay is the underdog pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120).
Game 951-952: Pittsburgh at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.517; NY Mets (Maine) 14.677
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-175); Over
Game 953-954: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.465; Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.545
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over
Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.843; LA Dodgers (Stults) 16.277
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under
Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 16.363; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.247
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+125); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 14.604; Houston (Moehler) 13.502
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over
Game 961-962: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 14.891; Cincinnati (Harang) 16.482
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Washington at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.494; Arizona (Davis) 15.437
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-130); Under
Game 965-966: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 13.321; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.924
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+110); Over
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.049; Boston (Lester) 15.431
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 15.708; Oakland (Gallagher) 17.137
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); Under
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.461; Baltimore (Eaton) 15.588
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 12
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 11
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.909; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.839
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Over
Game 975-976: Texas at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.064; White Sox (Danks) 15.486
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over
Game 977-978: Seattle at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.418; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.512
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+115); Under
Game 979-980: Kansas City at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 17.153; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.609
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-120); Under
NHL
Chicago at Vancouver
The Blackhawks come off a 2-1 overtime win in Game Four and look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games after allowing 2 goals or fewer in their previous game. Chicago is the underdog pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130).
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.703; Washington 13.253
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Chicago at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 13.192; Vancouver 12.065
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+130); Under
Jimmy The Moose
Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Nationals have won 4 of their last 5 games overall. Washington send Lannan to the mound tonight and although he's 1-3 on the year he's pitched pretty good, the offense hasn't helped him out. Lannan has given up 3 ER's or les in 4 of his 4 starts this season. Arizona has lost 5 of their last 6 games. Davis is on the mound tonight and he struggles vs. the Nationals. In 7 carrer starts vs. them his team's record is 2-5. Play on the Washington Nationals +.
Play on: Washington
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
The Denver Nuggets are hot. But they cannot possibly cover every game this postseason. With Dallas in a "must-win" situation Saturday evening and SU winners covering at a startling rate in the playoffs, we're calling for the Mavs to put an end to the Nuggets streak. Since 1996, Denver is just 58-82 ATS on the road coming off consecutive covers. Dallas averaged nearly 106 PPG at home this season and Nuggets HC Karl is just 2-13 ATS all-time in Game Three's!
Play on: Dallas
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Royals/Angels UNDER 7.5
We saw just 5 runs put on the board in this matchup Friday night and I'm expecting another low number with Greinke and Saunders facing off. Greinke is 6-0 with a ridiculous 0.40 ERA on the season, which includes a 2-0 mark with a 0.00 ERA on the road. Saunders hasn't been too shabby himself with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 3.29. This matchup has been an unders machine as the Under is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the Royals last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 6-1 in Greinke's last 7 starts overall, and an impressive 20-5 in Greinke's last 25 starts when his opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Halos are 24-10 Under in May games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under tonight.
John Ryan
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Baltimore orioles as they face the NYY sated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 79-49 mark making 55.2 units since 2003. Play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and poor defensive catchers allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season. Baltimore is a solid 31-9 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 6.2 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Orioles starter Eaton has posted a 17-6 (+11.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49% since 1997. Based on the posted total, the NYY are not in a good role for another win tonight. Note that they are 3-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons. Eaton has pitched far better than he once did for the Phillies. He is getting the FB up there at 93 MPH on a consistent basis, which makes his change to left handers far more effective. The does have a very good curve ball and slider for RH batters. Take Baltimore.
MATT FARGO
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander pitched a gem last night, allowing only two hits and two walks in a complete game shutout. The Indians wasted a solid effort from Cliff Lee as it dropped its second straight game to drop to 11-19 on the season. This includes a 5-8 record at home where the offense has been a virtual no-show. The Indians have scored one run or fewer in five of their last nine games at home, averaging a mere 2.9 rpg over that span. Detroit has been up and down this season but it is maintaining enough to stay above .500 as it sits at 15-13 and trails the Royals by just two games in the American League Central. The offense has hit a lull, scoring three runs or less in four of its last five games but all four of those games came against left-handed starters. Tonight, the Tigers face a struggling righty and that offense should get going once again. Fausto Carmona has had a tough time of it in the early going, allowing four runs or more in five of his sis starts on the season. His ERA sits at 6.11 while his WHIP is 1.58. He has had a solid career against the Tigers, going 6-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in nine starts, but he is far from the same pitcher that tossed six quality starts in his first seven outings against Detroit. The Tigers counter with Edwin Jackson who has been up and down but solid for the most part. He has a 3.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his six starts which is well above average and three of his four career starts against the Indians have been quality efforts. He only has one win this season and that is due to a lack of run support as the Tigers have averaged only 3.1 rpg in his starts. He should get much better support tonight. Detroit is 21-9 in its last 30 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 while the Indians are only 8-20 in their last 28 games against right-handed starters. This includes a 7-17 record this season. 3* Detroit Tigers
Scott Rickenbach
Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Mets
PICK: Under 9
With left-hander Paul Maholm getting the start for the Pirates this afternoon, it’s likely that the Mets will have Gary Sheffield and Fernando Tatis in the lineup instead of Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy. Although Church has been struggling, this still weakens the lineup as Sheffield is hitting just .158 this season. Maholm is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in five career starts against the Mets. He’s given up two runs or less in four of his six starts this season. John Maine gets the start for the Mets and he’s been solid in compiling a 2.25 ERA in his last two starts after some inconsistency plagued him early this season.
Maine has still shown some control troubles but he’s also proven to be tough to hit and that’s not good news for a struggling Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh has lost six straight on the road and they’ve managed just one homer and hit just .167 in their last four road games. Going back even further, Pittsburgh is hitting just .205 in their last nine games with only three homers. Maine is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts against the Pirates and this one has all the makings of a pitchers duel between Maholm and Maine. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in the New York Mets game early on Saturday!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Astros -115
A win in Game 1 of this 3-game set does a lot for Houston's confidence, and I expect the Astros to take Game 2 to ensure themselves a series win this evening. Moehler is long overdue for a good outing and I expect the Houston sticks to have their way with Correia. While Houston fits in this category itself, the Astros are 27-12 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Padres' lineup is not about to put the fear of God into you and they are only 9-27 against the money line in road games after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span over the last 2 seasons. While Moehler has struggled, the Astros are 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. I'll take the 'stros here!