Red Dog Sports
Kansas City at LA Angels
Play Kansas City -120
Zach Greinke is pitching well as the team is 6-0 with him starting and his ERA in the last 3 is 0.72. Joe Saunders is a good pitcher as the team is 4-2 with him starting but his ERA is 4.58 in his last 3 starts. The Royals are 15-6 in their last 21 on the road. Play the KC Royals on Saturday night!
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play on the diamond, we’ll back the Royals and the incredible Zach Greinke as a slight road favorite at the Angels.
What can I say about Greinke that hasn’t already been said (or that you don’t already know)? The guy has been remarkable, going 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA through six starts, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two road outings (that’s right, no runs allowed in 15 innings). And three times in his last four starts, Greinke has gone the distance. You go back to last season, and the right-hander has given up a grand total of three runs (two earned) in his last eight starts. What’s more, those two earned runs came in his final start in April, meaning in seven of his last eight trips to the mound, the guy hasn’t yielded a single freakin’ earned run!
Again, going back to last season, Greinke has delivered 13 quality starts in his last 14 trips to the mound, surrendering a total of 11 earned runs in 95 2/3 innings (1.03 ERA), walking just 19 and striking out 133! To put it simply, the guy is a freak of nature right now.
So why would I not use Greinke as premium selection? Two reasons. He’s NOT going to be able to pitch like this forever and eventually he’s going to run into some trouble, and it could come tonight against a hot-hitting Angels club. I highly doubt it will happen, but it might. More than that, though, the Angels are trotting out lefty Joe Saunders, who has been pretty solid in his own right and the Halos rarely lose when he pitches.
That said, it’s impossible not to make a play on Greinke here, given what he’s done over such a long stretch of time – not to mention the Royals’ recent run of success (8-2 last 10 games) and this cheap number. Kansas City’s the play.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take a shot with the Hawks at home.
I can't quite make this a pay play because there are too many unknown injury issues today with the Hawks but at this home dog price and the way Mike Woodson's team normally mans up at Philips Arena I'll make a small play on them today plus this hefty number.
LeBron and the Cavs are absolutely rolling right now after winning and covering their sixth straight playoff game on Thursday. This team is extremely deep and ready to win an NBA Title. But the road is never easy and if there is any Jekyl and Hyde type team team that can all of a sudden rise to the occasion on their home court it is these Atlanta Hawks. If the Hawks are going to be without Joe Johnson, Al Horford and Marvin Williams obviously this is going to be an ultra tough game to compete in. But more than likely we will see one, if not two of those guys able to play (probably not Johnson though) and in front of their crowd I do think this thing will be competitive.
The first two games in this series were lopsided jokes, there is no denying that at all. But look back at last season and the first two playoff games in Boston were just as pathetic. But then Mike Bibby, Josh Smith and the talented Hawks manned up and gutted out some wins at home. I'm not calling for an outright as this situation may be a bit too tough but with the adrenaline pumping and in more than likely a semi low scoring game I am fine with this number and will expect the Hawks to soar enough in order to grab that cash.
Jake Timlin
Take the Nuggets plus the points as there is no reason why Denver is an underdog today. You see with the Nuggets fresh off a pair lopsided wins at home games in this series to improve to 7-0 ATS in the postseason it’s easy I think to take the points here in game three. I mean thanks to the Nuggets two home wins they have now 9 of the last 10 meetings both straight up and against the spread, including 4 straight cover wins at Dallas I just don’t good things for Dallas at home tonight. Not when the Mavericks have been totally outmatched on both ends of the floor in both games thus far. Flat out, with Denver having won 20 of their last 24 games as they are now playing their best ball of the season I don’t see the Nuggets losing a game in this series. With that take the Nuggets plus the points for added insurance, but look outright as Denver takes a 3-0 series lead.
PICK: Denver Nuggets
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Took a miss last night as the Lakers and Rockets go Over the Total and give us a loss in this spot.
That’s fine because we’re nailing our winner tonight as we’re taking the Under in the Cavaliers-Hawks Game 3 matchup.
The number for this one is set at around 180 points, depending on where you’re playing this and these two will keep it well under that.
Consider that coming into this game the Under has hit in 4 of the Cavaliers’ last 5 games overall, while the Under is 5-2 in the Hawks’ last 7 games.
Coming into this game the Under has come in 15 of the Cavs’ last 20 conference semifinal games and it has hit in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games overall. The Under is also 10-3 in the Hawks’ last 13 games when installed as an underdog of between 5 and 10 1/2 points.
The Under is also 5-1 in the Hawks’ last 6 playoff games when installed as a ’dog and it will come in again tonight. Take the Under in this matchup.
3♦ CAVALIERS-HAWKS UNDER
Craig Davis
Today’s free play is on the NY Yankees. It’s amazing what one player can do for a team’s confidence. Alex Rodriguez plays his first game of the year, hits a three-run homer on the first pitch he sees, and CC Sabathia pitches his best game in a Yankees uniform. Yankees 4 Baltimore 0. Although I’m not expecting another shutout with Philip Hughes on the hill, I do expect the NY Yankees to score more than four runs today facing Adam Eaton. Have you watched this guy pitch? Seriously, he’ll be lucky to make it past the fourth inning the way he’s been throwing lately. New York hitters are waaaaay overdue for an offensive explosion, and today is just what the doctor ordered. I realize the Yankees haven’t been playing well recently, but neither has Baltimore despite their hot start to the season. The Yanks have won 8 of the last 10 H2H with Baltimore and I see nothing that tells me tonight will be any different. Play the Yankees against the run line vs. Baltimore as your free play winner.
3♦ NY YANKEES -1 1/2
JIM FEIST
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS / CINCINNATI REDS
Take ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
First place St. Louis comes to town with the No. 1 pitching staff in ERA in the NL, plus a balanced offense that is second in runs and slugging. They have a winning road record and face a Cincy team that has a losing home mark and an offense ranked 14th in the NL in runs scored. Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse (3-1) likes the NL, with a 3.22 ERA. Aaron Harang does not like facing St. Louis, at 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA against them. Play the Cardinals.
LT Profits
Minnesota Twins -120
We have a lot of respect for Felix Hernandez, but his Seattle Mariners are playing terrible ball right now, so we will back the Minnesota Twins and Francisco Liriano at home here at a reasonable price.
The Mariners have lost five straight games, and they have scored a pathetic total of four runs in their last four games. Also, Hernandez was not sharp in his last start as he was roughed up for six earned runs and 10 hits in six innings at home vs. the Texas Rangers, and he is now facing a Twins lineup that is batting a nice .287 vs. right-handed pitching at home so far this season.
Liriano was off to a very slow start, but he is now rounding to form nicely as he has recorded back-to-back Quality Starts while allowing exactly two runs on each occasion. Remember that Liriano is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is on top of his game, and his last two starts indicate that he is starting to round into his usual dominant form.
Liriano lost to the Mariners back on April 6 when he allowed four runs, but he only allowed four hits in seven innings and he was not nearly as sharp then as he is now, so look for him to get some revenge here.
Pick: Twins -120
Dave Price
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +130
The Cubs are 11-6 in Milwaukee the last 3 seasons and I'll bet on them to bounce back from a 1-run loss Friday. The Cubs, who have won 6 of 8, send a much better starter to the hill today in Dempster, who is 22-8 against the money line when pitching on Saturday in his career and 5-1 against the money line in his last 6 starts vs. the Brewers. Take the Cubs at an excellent price.
Karl Garrett
Denver at DALLAS
Denver has been playing them LOW this postseason, as 4 of their last 5 in the playoffs have landed UNDER the posted price.
Dallas knows for them to have a shot at getting on board in this series they may have to force the tempo a little, and hit some open long-range shots.
The Mavericks have been OVER the posted total in 5 of their 7 playoff games, and when installed as the favorite, they are 17-8 OVER the posted price.
24 of Dallas' 43 home games this year have also landed HIGH, so I will stick with the trends, and look for a high-scoring game in Game 3 of this Denver-Dallas series.
Take the OVER.
2♦ OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Cleveland at ATLANTA
A rare OVER for both the Cavaliers and the Hawks on Thursday.
We like this game to head back towards the UNDER trend.
Cleveland had been UNDER 4 in a row prior to Thursday's OVER, while Atlanta has played UNDER in 8 of their last 11 games overall.
With Williams, Horford, and Johnson ALL dealing with injuries, we just don't see the Atlanta offense being able to muster the offense needed to push this game OVER the posted price, and we know from watching Cleveland this season they will be content to "D" it up, and slow the pace down in this contest, making an OVER highly unlikely.
For the year, Cleveland has played LOW in 23 of 43 games on the highway, while Atlanta has gone UNDER in 25 of their 45 home games to date.
Take the UNDER in Game Three.
4♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
Kansas City -130 at LA ANGELS
I’m 18-8-1 with my last 27 overall free plays.
Let’s take the Royals for the road win over the Angels.
Zack Greinke has been all the rage this year in baseball and I see no reason to fade the kid now.
The right-hander is 6-0 with a 0.40 ERA in six starts this year, which includes three complete games and two shutouts. Greinke has a ridiculous WHIP of 0.84 and has posted 54 strikeouts against just eight walks in 45 innings.
Joe Saunders will get the start for the Angels and he’s having a solid season, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him tonight.
Let’s face it, if Saunders surrenders even a single run here he puts his team in serious jeopardy of losing. That’s how good Greinke is right now.
The Royals offense had been cruising along before being held to one run last night. I’m banking on their bats making enough noise for Greinke to get the easy win here.
Take the Royals as they grab the road win.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Drew Gordon
Seattle at MINNESOTA -125
While neither team is playing particularly well, the Mariners are tail-spinning right now, losers of 6 of their last 7, inlcuding 5 in a row. But its not just that they're losing, but how they're losing, being outscored 30 to 4 in their last 4 games! Even with Hernandez on the hill, he can't do it all on his own, and that's where Seattle gets into trouble tonight.
The Mariners Hernandez is a stud no doubt, but he'll be facing off against the resurgent Francisco Liriano, who's pitching a lot like the guy we remember in 2006. His last two starts have been rock-solid, allowing 4 runs over his last 14 innings, shutting down the Rays and Tigers in back-to-back starts. He's been especially good at the Metrodome, posting a 3.20 ERA in 19 2/3 innings there this season. He's also 2-2 with 2.32 ERA in 5 career starts against Seattle!
No surprise the Twins got back on track at home yesterday, as their 4-8 road record is no accident. Minnesota is 44-20 in their last 64 at the Metrodome, and after Friday's 11-0 shellacking of the Mariners, you can see why they're tough to beat at home. Not only that, but Minnesota has been swinging the bats particularly well over their last 10 games, batting .306 as a team and averaging 5.4 runs per game over that span!
Bottom line, may be tempting to jump on Hernandez here, but if you've seen Liriano pitch over his last 2 starts, you know this match up is a lot closer than their individual records indicate. With Seattle slumping at the plate big-time, look for the Twins to add to the Mariners misery here, as they notch another solid "W" in this one.
Take Minnesota behind Liriano over Seattle and Hernandez in this MLB match up.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: Detroit/Cleveland under 10
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
257 - 170 run 60 %
Sat DODGERS
Fri Red Sox Ty
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: MLB St Louis w/Lohse +100 Over Cincinnati
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Bobby Maxwell
Seattle +110 at MINNESOTA
Four of the last five days we've delivered a FREE winner for you, including Friday night's winner on the Red Sox over Tampa Bay. Today we've got another one for you as we play the Mariners to get the job done in Minnesota against the Twins.
The Mariners are definitely the right call in this matchup as they've got Felix Hernandez (4-1, 3.38 ERA) on the mound tonight and he's been as steady as they come this season.
Seattle is on runs of 4-0 when Hernandez faces A.L. Central teams, 5-1 in his last six starts overall, 8-2 when he starts as a road 'dog and 7-3 when he starts on Satruday. Throw in the fact they are 8-1 in their last nine games against Southpaws and you've got to love the Mariners in this one.
Minnesota has won just one of their last six games and they are just 1-4 with starter Francisco Liriano on the mound at home, 0-5 when he's a favorite and 2-5 in his last seven against A.L. West competition. Liriano is just 1-4 this season with a 5.30 ERA and he just doesn't look like the same pitcher that emerged about three seasons ago as a dominant force. That injury has really taken a toll on him.
The Mariners got off to the great start but they've slumped lately. But even through the slump they've been able to get consistency from Hernandez. Play Seattle in this one with the ace on the hill.
4♦ SEATTLE