Tom Freese
Chicago at Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 36-17 their last 53 games vs. winning teams and they are 9-3 off a win. Starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his six starts this year. The Brewers are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. Chicago is 2-8 in Ryan Dempster's last 10 starts as road underdogs and they are 17-36 their last 53 games as underdogs of +110 to +150. Chicago is 0-6 their last 6 games as underdogs. PLAY ON MILWAUKEE (Gallardo vs. Dempster)
Dwayne Bryant
TOR (-110) vs OAK
Toronto (20-12) leads the majors in runs (193) and batting average (.290). The Jays average 6.4 rpg on the road while batting .302. The Jays are also 9-2 in day games this season.Brian Tallet gets the ball for Toronto. Tallet has pitched well with the exception of two starts ago at Kansas City, when he got shelled for 10 runs and 11 hits in 4 innings. But KC has been playing well; Oakland has not. He bounced back nicely in his last start, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings vs. Cleveland.Tallet should do well again today, as the A's are 3-9 vs. lefty starters (3.2 rpg, .202 BA). Oakland is also just 4-7 in day games, batting .217. Tallet faced the A's on 4/18 in Toronto and allowed just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 5 1/3 innings.Sean Gallagher is making a spot start for the injured Brett Anderson, who is nursing a blister on a finger on his left hand. Gallagher made 21 starts last season for Oakland and the Chicago Cubs. In his two starts against the Blue Jays, the right-hander posted a 7.88 ERA in losing both.The Jays are the much better hitting team and the pitching matchup today appears to favor them as well. Take Toronto and Tallet over Oakland and Gallagher for a half-unit.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Boston
Pick: Boston -140
Tampa Bay has a losing record overall and on the road. Boston is 19-11 on the season and 12-3 at home. Yet we are laying just -140 here. Boston has gone 17-5 in their last 22 games. Yet they are laying just -140 here at home. The Rays average 4.4 runs per game on the road and 3.5 per game vs. LHP. Boston averages 6.1 per game vs. LHP and 6.9 per game at home. Yet, we are laying just -140 here. The Red Sox have the bullpen advantage and... well, you get the idea. This is obviously the Scott Kazmir factor but it's an overreaction. Is Kazmir enough to virtually even out a game here with the advantages Boston has? No. And, further reason to like Boston here is that Kazmir is just 3-3 on the season with a 6.00 ERA. Jon Lester is no slouch. He's posted a better ERA on the season than Kazmir. With Lester on the mound, the Red Sox are 20-3 the past three seasons as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is just 4-13 this season to a line of +125 to -125 including 2-9 on the road in that situation.Boston gets the call here.
SharpMoneyMoves
3-Units Cincinnati Reds +100
It seems as if the odds makers haven't figured out that this is not the same Reds team that we have seen over the past few years. This Reds team has a solid group of pitchers to go along with a better than average offense. No, the Reds offense isn't as good as the Cardinals, but they have been getting the job done recently. In fact, their hitting .293 vs righties over their last 10 games as compared a Cardinals team that is hitting .242 over their last 10 vs rightes. The Reds also have a solid pitcher going tonight in Aaron Harang. Harang has allowed 2 or less run in 4 of his 6 starts this year, and has been solid at home holding teams to a .225 BAA in his home starts. He will be opposed by Kyle Lohse of the Cardinals. Lohse is coming off of his worst performance of the season, allowing 6 earned runs in only 4 innings of work against the Phillies on Monday. Prior to that start Loshe had allowed a total of 7 earned runs over his previous 5 starts. The question is, which Loshse shows up on Saturday? We hope it's the same one that showed up vs the Phillies. Cincinnati has won two in a row, even though they have been dealing with the flu bug as a team. Brandon Phillips will be back tonight to help get the offense going. St. Louis has struggled at Great American Park, going 1-4 over their last 5. Were getting the Red Hot Reds at a very good price with a very decent pitcher on the mound in Harang. Let's see if they can make it 3 wins in a row.
Greg Shaker
Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Hawks +8.5 -110
Sometimes there is not much to say about a play except to say that we have an extreme over-adjustment to a betting line. In this case it is due to the whoopings that the Hawks have recieved in the first 2 games of this series. I stayed away from both of those games, at least picking the side, because that is what the Cavs do, and have done to a lot of teams traveling to The City of Rock and Roll. This is not there and the preferred style of music here is Urban Comtemporary, Rap, and the Blues. That is why I like this play. Ok, that is not why I like this play, but I do think that those that have driven this line upward are going to be singing the blues. In effect, with homecourt taken into light, this current line would make Cleveland at 16 to 17 point favorite if it were played back in Ohio. That gives us very good value indeed and Atlanta is not going to bow out that easily. While the Cavs are resting on their laurels, they have have just a 1 Point win here at this Arena and a 5 Point loss at this Arena. There is going to be somewhat of a letdown more than likely today as Cleveland clearly understands that they just need to win their home contests to get this series, and although, they would like to end it early, our minds work in mysterious ways sometimes, not allowing us to get what we want. Perhaps the next game they win. Perhaps they win a close one here today. They will be in for a different kind of Atlanta Squad who should be more focused than they are. Play the Hawks Moneyline? That might be a good idea, but I certainly will grab these unusually high points today.