SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) L.A. Lakers (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) at (2) Denver (9-3 SU, 12-0 ATS)
The Nuggets, who earned a split in Los Angeles to steal home-court advantage and remain perfect against the number in the playoffs, return to the Pepsi Center for Game 3 of the best-of-7 Western Conference finals against the Lakers.
Denver trailed by 14 points in the second quarter Thursday before rallying within one point by halftime, then hung with Los Angeles the rest of the way and claimed a 106-103 victory as a 5½-point road underdog. Carmelo Anthony scored 34 points – his fifth straight game with at least 30 points – and hit 10 of 14 free throws while pulling downd nine rebounds. Chauncey Billups went 13 of 16 from the foul line and finished with 27 points, and the Nuggets also got a huge boost from reserve Linas Kleiza (16 points, eight rebounds), who hit 4 of 7 three-pointers.
Los Angeles got 32 points from Kobe Bryant in the Game 2 defeat while Trevor Ariza added 20 points and Pau Gasol racked up 17 points and 17 rebounds. But the Nuggets were able to fend off the Lakers by hitting 17 straight free throws before a Billups miss in the waning seconds. Denver finished 29 of 37 from the charity stripe and L.A. made 27 of 35.
Denver had lost 11 straight playoff games to the Lakers before breaking through Thursday, and by cashing in both contests at Staples Center, the Nuggets are 3-3 ATS (2-4 SU) against Los Angeles this year. However, going back a couple of seasons, the Lakers are still 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
Denver is on a 16-game winning streak at the Pepsi Center and is 39-8 SU (29-17-1 ATS) on the year at home. That includes a 6-0 SU and ATS mark in the playoffs, with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game (113-95.5). Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 31-15 SU (25-21 ATS) on the highway this season but 2-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs, including double-digit losses in Games 4 and 6 at Houston in the conference semifinals
The Nuggets are 23-6 SU in their last 29 overall, and along with their perfect playoff ATS mark, they are on a bundle of spread-covering sprees, including 22-6 overall, 6-0 as a playoff chalk, 10-1 overall laying points and 7-1 against the Pacific Division. The lone negative for Denver is its 0-4 ATS mark as a playoff favorite of less than five points.
The Lakers are on ATS upswings of 20-7-2 as a road pup, 5-0 following a SU loss and 7-3 after a non-cover, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-7 after putting up 100 or more points, 1-5 against the Northwest Division, 3-7 on the highway and 3-7 in the conference finals.
The over for Denver is on a 10-4 run at home, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven as a favorite of less than five points. For Los Angeles, the under is on surges of 10-2 overall (6-0 in the last six), 4-1 on the road, 7-0 in the conference finals and 15-2 after a SU loss.
Finally, with the first two games of this series staying low, the under is now 8-1 in the last nine clashes between these two teams, with the last five meetings in Denver staying under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
INTERLEAGUE
Philadelphia (23-17) at N.Y. Yankees (24-18)
The surging Yankees send Andy Pettitte (4-1, 4.18 ERA) to the mound as they continue a weekend interleague series against the Phillies, who will counter with young lefty J.A. Happ (2-0, 2.49 ERA), who is slated to make his first start of the season.
Philadelphia ended New York’s nine-game winning streak with a 7-3 victory Friday night. Nonetheless, the Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight inside the new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, who were mired in funks of 2-7 overall and 0-5 at home prior to their recent run, have cashed in eight of nine games as a favorite. They’re also on positive rolls of 37-19 at home, 54-21 when hosting N.L. opponents, 10-4 against lefty starters, 54-21 at home versus left-handers and 20-8 in the second game of a series.
Philadelphia is 7-1 on its current 10-game road swing and it is a major league-best 15-5 on the highway this season, having scored 57 runs during its current trip. The defending champs are on additional streaks of 24-9 on the road dating to 2008, 19-7 against left-handed starters, 6-1 on the road against southpaws, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-3 as a road ‘dog and 39-16 against teams with a winning record, but they have dropped 18 of their last 26 interleague road contests.
These teams last met in 2006, with the Yankees taking two of three in Philadelphia, and New York has won four of the last six clashes overall, all in Philly.
Happ has made 12 relief appearances this season, giving up six earned runs and 14 hits in 21 2/3 innings, including allowing just one run in 10 1/3 innings on the road, where he’s 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA. Last year, Happ started four games and went 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in those contests, with Philadelphia winning all four games.
Pettitte is coming off a shaky outing against the Twins in which the veteran gave up four runs on 12 hits in 6 2/3 innings, but held on for a 7-6 victory. New York is 7-2 in Pettitte’s last nine starts overall, 71-33 in his last 104 in the Bronx and 15-5 in his last 20 against N.L. East foes. This season, Pettitte is 2-0 at home despite a 5.68 ERA. He’s also 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career regular-season starts against the Phillies, with New York going 4-2 (2-0 at home).
The under is 4-0 in Happ’s last four starts, 37-17-1 in Pettitte’s last 55 outings overall and 9-1-1 in Pettitte’s last 11 interleague contests.
Philadelphia carries “over” streaks of 6-3-1 overall, 14-5-1 on the highway, 9-4 as an underdog, 6-3 in interleague road games, 6-1 on Saturday, 4-1 versus lefty starters and 12-6-1 against winning teams. The over is also 10-4-2 in New York’s last 16 at the new stadium (4-1 last five) and 4-0-1 in its last five on Saturday, but the Yanks’ last five interleague games have stayed low. Finally, the under is 5-1 in the last six Phillies-Yankees clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. Mets (22-19) at Boston (25-17)
Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (4-2, 5.85) tries for his third straight win when he matches up against the Mets’ Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 4.61) in the middle game of a weekend series at Fenway Park.
Before scoring Friday’s 5-3 victory in Boston, New York had dropped four straight games while scoring a total of six runs in the process, this after tallying 24 runs during a three-game winning streak in San Francisco last weekend. The Mets, who are nearing the end of a 10-game road trip, preceded their four-game slide with an 11-2 overall run and a five-game road winning streak.
Boston has won three of its last four, allowing a total of 10 runs in that span. Additionally, Terry Francona’s pitching staff has given up three runs or fewer in five of its last six games overall and six of its last eight at home.
The Red Sox swept a three-game home series from the Mets in the most recent matchup back in 2006, with a scoring differential of 23-8. Going back to 1999, the home team is 9-3 in the last 12 head-to-head battles, with New York losing four of its last five visits to Fenway Park.
The Mets are on upticks of 6-1 in interleague roadies and 6-1 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Boston is riding positive runs of 22-11 overall, 80-34 at Fenway Park, 52-17 in interleague play, 6-1 on Saturday, 43-13 when hosting N.L. squads and 26-6 against the N.L. East.
Pelfrey has delivered three straight quality starts and has given up three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts. However, in his most recent outing last Sunday, he got no run support in a 2-0 loss at the Giants, allowing both runs in six innings. Prior to that setback, New York had won four straight games behind Pelfrey while tallying 26 runs.
Including Sunday’s loss at San Francisco, Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 4.96 ERA in three road starts this season, and this is his first career start against the Red Sox.
Beckett is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts, all Red Sox wins, including last Saturday’s 5-3 triumph at Seattle, in which the veteran right-hander yielded all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. With Beckett pitching, the BoSox are on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on Saturday and 10-3 in interleague action. Also, Boston has won all four of Becket’s home starts this year, despite the Texan’s beefy 5.62 ERA.
Going back to his days with the Marlins, Beckett has faced New York 13 times, going 6-2 with a 2.50 ERA, including a 10-2 victory with Boston at Fenway Park back in 2006. In fact, the Mets are 1-8 the last nine times they’ve faced Beckett.
The under is on streaks of 6-1-1 for Boston overall, 6-1-1 for Boston against the National League and 9-2-2 in this periodic rivalry. However, the Mets are on “over” stretches of 9-5-1 overall, 4-1-1 on Saturday and 19-8-2 in interleague road games. Additionally, Beckett’s last four starts against the Mets have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
John Ryan
Kansas City Royals vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Kansas City Royals
Ai Simulator 3* graded play ON The RUN Line with KC as they face3 St. Louis. Supporting this graded play is a series of angles and research. Note that KC is 40-46 (+13.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 23-13 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons. KC is a robust 10-1 against the run line (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 11-4 against the run line (+9.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game this season; 14-4 against the run line (+11.2 Units) in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons. Take KC on the run-line
Craig Trapp
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
Craig's Free Play is on a two game winning streak and today we will make it three. Craig's MLB plays have been hot going 11-4 with his top 5 star MLB plays in the last two weeks. Lets look at the free play records, trends, and Craig's winning breakdown.
Records
Colorado Rockies 16-25, 9-15 away (Marquis 5-3, 4.75 ERA)
Detroit Tigers 24-16, 15-5 home (Galarraga (3-3, 5.62 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Rockies are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague games as an underdog.
-Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games.
-Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
-Tigers are 4-0 in Galarragas last 4 interleague starts.
Detroit has won 8 games in a row and come off a win against COL on Friday. Most of these were without there start slugger as Orodonez missed the last 4 games with a family emergency. Galarraga is 0-3 with a 10.90 ERA in his last four starts. On Sunday, the right-hander retired only two batters, allowing five runs and four hits while walking three before Detroit came back to beat Oakland 11-7. Gallarraga is due to bounce back and against an average lineup in COL this will be the day he gets his form back. Marquis goes for COL today who has been very up and down this year and has only had one quality start in last three games. Much better lineup that is hitting the cover off the ball Marquis will definitely struggle and COL plays horrible against the American League!! SCORE DET 7 - COL 3
Mike Rose
Denver Nuggets -3.5
The Lakers are in trouble after losing home court advantage in Game 2 because the Nuggets haven't lost a home game SU dating back to February 23rd. LA is just 3-7 ATS in its L/10 road games and 2-3 ATS on the road in the 2009 NBA Playoffs. Lakers superstar G Kobe Bryant did all he could for his squad in Game 2 scoring 32 points to go along with five rebounds and three assists. However, LA couldn't find their best player with the game on the line as he was covered like a blanket by Nuggets F Carmelo Anthony. Bryant will need a lot of help if the Lakers want to move on to the NBA Finals for a second straight season. One hope for Lakers bettors is the squad's 6-2 mark in their L/8 games played on a Saturday.
The Nuggets were able to get a key defensive stop in the final moments of Game 2 and pulled off the victory with a huge jump ball win by G Chauncey Billups. Entering Thursday's game, the Lakers were 7-0 SU in this postseason when scoring over 100 points, the Nuggets broke that streak and managed to outscore LA on its home floor. Anthony was again the key player for Denver scoring 34 points to go with nine rebounds and four assists. Melo was guarded by the smaller Bryant and dominated by grabbing five offensive rebounds in the contest. The Nuggets remained undefeated in the postseason ATS in Game 2 as they are now a perfect 12-0 in that category.
Denver is 29-17-1 ATS on its home floor this season and 6-1 ATS at home when following a narrow victory of 0-4 points. The Nuggets have been extremely impressive in these playoffs and I expect to see that continue in Game 3 against the desperate Lakers. Look for the Nuggets to run out early on The Lake Show with Billups and Anthony once again taking the lead in scoring. It may be close in the end, but the Nuggets will hang on for their 13th straight ATS victory
James Patrick
Indians vs.Reds
The Battle of Ohio in the Queen City this Saturday Night has a couple of young arms getting the start and we doubt if either will be around after the 4th inning as our Saturday Major League Baseball selection in Inter-League play is Cleveland -Cincinnati Over the Total.
Cajun Sports
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Selection: 2* Under 10
Minute Maid Park will be the site of Saturdays interleague battle between instate rivals the Houston Astros and the visiting Texas Rangers. The Rangers are 18-21 under overall on the season and have a propensity to play to the under when on the highway; their record is 8-12 under on the road this season. Over their seven games they have fallen below the posted total in six of those seven contests. Todays starter Scott Feldman certainly plays to the under as his record would attest, he is 0-5 under so far this season. Feldman has an ERA of 2.17 on the year and in his last three trips to the bump that number has fallen to 1.47. The host in todays contest also plays to the under posting a record of 15-22 under for the season and 7-13 under when playing at Minute Maid Park. When the Astros face right-handed starters they have posted a total record of 9-20 under on the season. Houston will send Brian Moehler to the hill with his ERA of 3.18 over his last three outings but in his starts versus the Rangers six of nine have fallen well below the posted total. Moehler is 8-0 under (+8.0 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season the last 2 years. Moehler is 24-10 under (+13.6 Units) against AL West opponents since 1997. Feldman is 22-8 unde (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons. Feldman is 15-2 under (+12.5 Units) in the first half of the season the last 2 seasons. With the current number at 10 we will play the under here as both have shown they play to the under in this situation.
Graded Selection: 2* Texas Rangers / Houston Astros Under 10
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Colorado w/Marquis vs. Gallaraga
The Rockies meet on the Tigers in Game Two in this Interleague matchup in the Motor City tonight when Jason Marquis takes on Armando Gallaraga. Marquis has enjoyed life on the road of late, cashing 7 of his last 8 away team starts. On the flip side, Gallaraga is having trouble finding the plate, issuing 12 walks against 9 strikeouts in his last four team starts. With Detroit's bullpen in rocky form, look for the Rockies to tame the Tigers here tonight.
Jimmy The Moose
Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over
The over is 18-6-1 for the Indians on the road this season. Cleveland has played over the total in 8 of their last 11 games overall. David Huff starts for the Indians tonight and in his forst start of his career he went 3.2 innings giving up 7 hits and 7 ER's. The over is 9-5-1 in the Reds last 15 games overall. Cincinnati has played over the total in 6 of their last 9 home games. The over over is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home dog. Look for both teams to put up runs tonight. Play the over.
Dennis Macklin
Sean Sherk at Frank Edgar
Prediction: Sean Sherk
This battle of "BIG" little men could very well turn out the best matchup of the UFC 98 card. Sean "Muscle Shark" Sherk 37-3-1 (-350)has been in the wars since 1999 and his only losses (Hughes, GSP, Penn) are to the MMA's elite. Sherk is a workout fanatic so he doesn't figure to gas in a three rounder against tough guy eight years his junior. Frankie Edgar 9-1 (+275) burst on the scene with a 2007 win over Tyson Griffin and has also dominated veterans Spencer Fisher and Hermes Franca. His lone loss was to Gray Maynard who is similar in style to Sherk. Edgar is exciting to watch but doesn't match up well against Sherk who does all the same things well as Edgar. Both fighters would prefer to take it to the mat and in the end, Sherk's experience and strength win the day as the Muscle Shark gets the duke by unanimous decision.
Carlo Campanella
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Baltimore has now gone "Over" in 14 of 18 road games this season as they head to Washington on Saturday. Expecting another "Over" as Washington is just 6-14 at home this year, allowing an average of 5.7 Runs per game at home! Baltimore's bullpen has a 6.68 ERA on the road and Washington's bullpen owns a 6.47 ERA this season. Not shocked that these black birds have gone "Over" in 8 of their last 9 games with them owning those type of pitching stats.
7* Play On UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Cleveland at CINCINNATI
Interleague FREE winner tonight comes from Cincinnati as we play the Reds to get the best of their in-state rivals from Cleveland.
Cincinnati is bringing back highly touted pitcher Homer Bailey to make his season-debut tonight against the Indians when these two in-state rivals meet in Cincinnati. We think this guy is going to have great stuff and he'll get some run support and get a victory in this spot tonight.
Bailey was the seventh pick in the 2004 draft and made his big-league debut in 2007 for the Reds - against the Indians - and got the win, allowing two runs on five hits in five innigns of a 4-3 victory. He was OK as a rookie in 2007, going 4-2 with a 5.76 but got blasted in 2008, going 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight outings.
He's been called up to replace Edinson Volquez who is on the 15-day DL with a bad back. Bailey was 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA in Louisville with one shutout and two complete games.
Cincinnati beat the Indians 3-1 on Friday behind the pitching of Bronson Arroyo. The Reds continue to dominate the Indians in interleague play, improving to 7-1 the last eight times these rivals have hooked up.
Cleveland managed just five hits on Friday and leader Grady Sizemore is in a huge slump, going just 5-for-28 in his last seven games. David Huff (0-1, 17.18 ERA) made his major-league debut on Sunday and gave up seven runs on seven hits in 3.2 innings of a 7-5 loss to the Rays, goes for cleveland tonight.
The Indians have lost five straight in Cincinnati and they are just 9-16 on the road this season. We'll play the Reds tonight in this battle of young hurlers.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Jeff Benton
For Saturday’s free play, we’ll back the DBacks and Dan Haren at Oakland.
This is an odd pitching matchup with two guys who were traded for each other scheduled to square off, as Haren matches up against Oakland’s Edgar Gonzalez, who is making his 2009 big-league debut and his first MLB start in 53 weeks. I gotta believe Haren’s going to be a little extra pumped up for this contest, as he was Oakland’s ace before being dealt to Arizona after the 2007 season. He also comes into this game very well rested, as he threw 56 pitches in three innings at Florida on Monday before the game was called due to rain.
Haren’s last start prior to that was on May 12, when he tossed 102 pitches in seven innings in a 3-1 home loss to Cincinnati, meaning he really hasn’t pitched in 11 days. That can only help a guy who pitches deep into games as often as Haren does. In fact, the right-hander has gone at least six innings in 11 consecutive outings dating to last September, and although his 3-4 record doesn’t suggest it, he’s been terrific all season with eight quality starts in eight trips to the mound.
Haren’s 2.09 ERA is the fourth-best in the National League and the fifth best in baseball, and his 0.86 WHIP is the better than any pitcher’s in the game – better than Johan Santana, better than Zack Greinke, better than Roy Halladay. He’s also got a remarkable 56-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Lastly, Haren proved a year ago that facing his former team fires him up, as he beat the A’s 11-1 in Arizona, giving up a run on four hits with one walk and eight strikeouts in seven innings. Throw in the fact that Gonzalez went just 14-21 with a 5.97 ERA in three major-league seasons (all in Arizona) – and he was 3-2 with a 5.22 ERA in Triple-A this year! – and I’m all over Haren and the improving DBacks (5-1 last six games) in this one.
3♦ ARIZONA
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the coin back with the Mets.
Sure beating Josh Beckett and the Red Sox at Fenway Park is as daunting of a task as there may be out there and not having Carlos Delgado and probably Jose Reyes will not help matters but the price is still too much to pass up on this extremely potentialed barking dog. We saw the Mets win on Friday and yes this will be harder without Johan on the hill but they can repeat that feat today and that is enough for me to give it a go.
Jerry Manual's squad has struggled over the past week after looking great in the previous few weeks but the New Yorkers still are very formidable with a couple of studs in David Wright and Carlos Beltran. Throw in a capable enough Mike Pelfrey starting along with the improved bullpen anchored by K-Rod in the end and I can't help but to take my chances on these visitors.
I'm not going to say that we win this game half the time or it is the steal of all steals as Pedroia, Ellsbury, Bay. Lowell and the Sox could win the World Series but it is a simple 9 inning baseball game in which a capable enough New York squad could easily prevail. After all it's not like David Ortiz is any good anymore!
Any time I can get a team that I consider to be very good plus a price such as this then I can't help but back that dog, period!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
We come through again yesterday as the Tampa Bay Rays cruise to an easy win over the Marlins giving us back-to-back Comp Play winners.
We’re making it 3 in a row tonight as we’re taking the Seattle Mariners at home against the visiting Giants.
It took 12 innings, but the Mariners picked up their second win in three games and handed the Giants their fourth consecutive loss.
Including last night’s loss San Francisco has now dropped 8 of its last 9 games overall and is only 6-14 on the road this season.
Going back a little further the Giants have won only 8 of their last 27 interleague road games and are only 2-8 their last 10 games against the AL West.
The Mariners, on the other hand, have won 4 straight interleague games and have won 24 of their last 31 against the NL West.
Tonight, Seattle will come through again as the Giants lose yet another game on the road. Take the Mariners at home in this one.
3♦ MARINERS
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK METS / BOSTON RED SOX
Take OVER
Getting out of Dodger stadium should help the Mets offense, especially here in hitter-friendly Fenway. This NY offense is tops in the NL in batting, second in OBP and first in runs. They gain a DH here, too. Neither starter has outstanding numbers: NY's Mike Pelfrey has a 4.61 ERA in the NL and walks a few too many batters (17 in 41 innings), something patient Boston will take advantage of to clog the bases. Red Sox righty Josh Beckett hasn't been an ace, with a 5.85 ERA, walking 23 in 47 innings. Look for an offensive show in Fenway, play the Mets/Red Sox over the total.