Charlie Scott
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +3.5
I expect to get a focused Laker team getting points tonight, coming off a Thursday nights loss to Denver in LA. What's nice about my Playoff betting strategy is that to make money, we just need the Lakers to cover one game out of two road games this Holiday weekend to make money ! Bet 1/2 a Unit on the Lakers in tonight's game, if they cover we're done betting them, if for some reason the Lakers don't cover tonight, Play the Lakers for 1 Unit
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are 11-0 when John Lackey starts as a dog from 105 to 130 inclusive vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date. Take the Halos over the Dodgers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland A's +130
The A's are showing excellent value in the home underdog role today. The D-backs may send the better pitcher to the hill today, but that doesn't scare me off the A's here as Arizona is only giving its starters 3.8 runs of support on the road this season. Plus, Oakland is 13-2 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. On top of that, plays against road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season - NL, poor fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season, are 50-21 since 1997. Oakland gives Edgar Gonzalez his first start of 2009 against his former club and I expect he'll be out to stick it to them after they wanted to give him a minor league assignment in the offseason. Plus, he'll have plenty of help if he gets in trouble as the A's have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 2.73 ERA at home. Zona is just 8-14 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Bet the A's.
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
(966) Detroit Tigers -$140
(Listing Galaraga and Marquis)
Detroit just keeps winning and cashing in free winners for us
and I am right back on them today. The Tigers are the hottest
team in MLB with seven straight wins and I look for that to
continue. Both of these starting pitchers have struggled recently,
but look for the hot bats of the Tigers to get it done once again
here. Lay the juice with Detroit once again.
2009 Free Selections Record 77-62 (55.4%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Saturday's free selection: San Francisco/Seattle under 7 1/2
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Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
266 - 172 run 60 %
11 wins -2 losses last 13 free picks
Sat - Ariz D'Backs
8)
DUNKEL
LA Lakers at Denver
The Nuggets travel home after an upset win in Game Two and look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home favorite. Denver is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Denver favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2).
Game 509-510: LA Lakers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 126.024; Denver 131.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 5 1/2; 213 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games, while the Pirates are just 3-16 in their last 19 interleague road games versus a left-handed starter. Chicago is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the White Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130).
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.180; San Diego (Geer) 14.200
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 953-954: Kansas City at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.850; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.450
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
Game 955-956: Texas at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 17.364; Houston (Moehler) 15.638
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-130); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.695; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.067
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 11
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over
Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.193; White Sox (Richard) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Over
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.822; Boston (Beckett) 16.976
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Uehara) 15.122; Washington (Detwiler) 13.897
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Over
Game 965-966: Colorado at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 15.142; Detroit (Galarraga) 16.017
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under
Game 967-968: Milwaukee at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 16.636; Minnesota (Swarzak) 14.906
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under
Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 14.745; Florida (West) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 971-972: Toronto at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Janssen) 15.531; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.435
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.464; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.950
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); Under
Game 975-976: Arizona at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 16.105; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.786
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-160); Over
Game 977-978: LA Angels at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.371; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 16.802
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under
Game 979-980: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.445; Seattle (Olson) 13.904
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Pittsburgh at Carolina
The Penguins come off a 7-4 win in Game Two and look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is just 3-10 in its last 13 games after allowing 5 or more goals in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105).
Game 11-12: Pittsburgh at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 13.630; Carolina 13.131
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Under
Chris Jordan
N.Y. Mets at BOSTON -180
Love the boys from Beantown in this one, as they'll rebound from last night's loss to the Mets to get it done here.
Keep in mind, prior to last night's win in Fenway Park, New York had dropped four straight games while scoring a total of six runs in the process. And since the Mets are nearing the end of a 10-game road trip, I suspect they'll be a bit winded today for this one.
New York starter Mike Pelfrey has a 4.96 ERA in three road starts this season, so I don't expect him to be around that long tonight.
I'd rather side with Josh Beckett, who is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in his last three starts, all Red Sox wins.
With Beckett toeing the slab, the BoSox are on streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on Saturday and 10-3 in interleague action. Also, Boston has won all four of Becket’s home starts this year.
1♦ BOSTON RED SOX
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at MINNESOTA -110
I can understand some bettors being hesistant to back the Twins with Anthony Swarzak taking the hill in the place of the injured Glen Perkins, but that should not deter you in this match up and here's why:
First off, while Braden Looper was solid in his last start, allowing 1 earned over 6 innings for the win in St. Louis, let's not get carried away! He's still posting an ugly 6.04 ERA for the month of May, and his road start prior to St. Louis was a disaster in Cincinnati, allowing 5 runs in 3 1/3 innings May 7th! Sorry Brewers-backers, but I'm not convinced, especially with the Twins swinging the bats extremely well of late.
Speaking of the Twins hot-hitting, they built off their ridiculous 20-1 win over the White Sox, by pounding the Brewers 11-3 last night! Led by Michael Cuddyer, the Twins have ammassed 32 hits over their last 2 games, and with numbers like those, backing the young Swarzak is suddenly a hell of a lot easier!
Finally, not only are the Brewers just 1-7 in their L8 interleague road games, but they're also just 2-6 in their L8 meetings with Minnesota. Twins are already a tough match up at the Metrodome (15-9 there on season), but since they've caught fire at the plate, beating them is a lot easier said than done! In the end, Looper becomes the Twins next victim, as they continue their hot-hitting ways Saturday!
Take Minnesota behind Swarzak over Milwaukee and Looper in this MLB match up.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Karl Garrett
Coloardo +125 at DETROIT
Winner on the Tigers for free last night from the G-Man, now 3-1 the last 4 days with my comp plays!
Detroit has been playing some tip-top ball of late, winners of 7 straight, but the pitching mathcup tonight is most decidedly in the favor of the visiting Rockies.
Colorado's Jason Marquis has been around the block a time or two, and comes in Saturday's assignment fresh off 8 dominant innings in a win at Atlanta. Marquis allowed just 1 earned run in that effort, and his starts on the road this year have gone quite well considering Colorado's sub-par season road record.
Marquis is 3-1 on the highway this season with a slim 2.79 ERA. Look for him to be spot-on once again in this game.
Armando Galarraga has really hit the skids, as he has allowed 16 runs to score in just 13 innings of work over his last 3 starts for an 0-2 mark.
Look for the Rockies to take out some of their recent road frustrations on Galarraga, and the Tigers tonight.
3♦ COLORADO
Sports Gambling Hotline
LA Lakers at DENVER
We finally dropped a free play, but are still a blistering 7-1 with our free plays the last 8 days!
We have been using the UNDER as our cash-cow thus far in this Lakers-Nuggets series, and until we actually see these teams combine to play an OVER, we will stick to our guns, and play another game to land UNDER the posted total.
Thus far the first 2 games in this series have landed BELOW the posted price, which makes it 8 of the last 9 series meetings landing UNDER the posted price.
Los Angeles is on a 27-11 UNDER run their last 38 games overall, while the usually high-scoring Nuggets have now played UNDER the total in 6 of their last 10 postseason contests.
Sure, Thursday's game came quite close to eclipsing the total, but in the end the UNDER held out by just a smidge.
More of the same on Saturday night.
Play on the LOW.
3♦ UNDER
VEGAS EXPERTS
LA Lakers at Denver Nuggets
First two games of this series as well as six of the last seven head to head battles between the teams here in Denver have gone Under the total, but we look for a reversal of fortunes tonight. Road teams that are off a loss by 3pts or less and have scored 100+ points in four straight games and the total is 200 or higher are 44-13 to the Over since 1996. Ironically enough, Denver is 11-1 Over off a road win by three points or less.
Play on: Over
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals +150
The Kansas City Royals have slumped after a very hot start, currently sitting at 21-21 overall, but we feel they offer nice value at this price vs. the St. Louis Cardinals today.
This is because Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse is finally returning to his mediocre form after overachieving his first time through the National League. Lohse has just one Quality Start in his last six starts, and he has been absolutely brutal in his last three outings, posting a 10.67 ERA with a horrendous 1.95 WHIP in 14.1 innings, averaging less than five innings per start.
Now granted, Royals starter Luke Hochevar is not much either, but he is facing a St. Louis lineup that is batting a woeful .203 overall while averaging just 2.70 runs per game over the last 10 games, and the fact that the Cardinals have never faced him before certainly helps also. Comparatively, Kansas City is averaging 4.10 runs in that same 10-game span, and he has the support of a Royals bullpen that ranks seventh in the Major Leagues with a collective 3.64 ERA.
So basically, the Royals have the better bullpen and the better offense right now, and the poor current form of Lohse makes the starters practically a wash. Thus, we will take the value with Kansas City here.
Pick: Royals +150
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -105
The Brewers have lost 2 of 3 since winning 7 in a row, but they definitely have the edge tonight with Minnesota fresh meat Anthony Swarzak making his MLB debut. The Brewers are 12-4 in their last 16 road games, 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, and 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Bet the Brew Crew.
Scott Delaney
Nice little 4-0 spurt with the comp plays and tonight we're going to play the New York Yankees against the defending champs.
The Phils might have wnet homer happy on the Bombers last night, but it could be the other way around, as young southpaw J.A. Happ is making his first start of the season. It was supposed to take place last week, his starting debut, but he was need the night prior in extra-inning relief.
Today he gets the Bombers.
New York is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, and it'll be able to get back to its winning ways with Andy Pettitte taking the mound, as New York is 7-2 in Pettitte’s last nine starts overall. He's 2-0 at home on the year, and has a 3.38 ERA in six career regular-season starts against the Phillies, with New York going 4-2 (2-0 at home) in those outings.
PLAY: N.Y. YANKEES
Jake Timlin
Part of my 2-0 paid sweep last night I like the Tigers once again today as they remain the hottest team in the league. You see going for the Tigers is the fact they have now won their last seven games and 15 of 20 at home this season. Numbers that drowned out the fact that Detroit is going with Galarraga who has struggled most of the year. Meanwhile, for the Rockies losers of 7 of their last 10 games they turn to Marquis who over his last three starts has struggled going 1-2 with an ERA of over 7 runs per game. Flat out, even with the Rockies have a bit of an edge on the mound it won’t be good enough to overcome the fact that Detroit is just to good right now and at home. With a that take the Tigers as they make it eight straight wins.
PICK: Detroit Tigers
LEE KOSTROSKI
Kansas City Royals @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Kyle Lohse has been very streaky throughout his career and he is currently on a very poor run of results. In his last three outings Lohse has allowed 17 runs in just over 14 innings and the Cardinals have taken three consecutive losses with him on the mound. His overall numbers look respectable and the Cardinals will still be given solid favoritism at home but it is very tough to trust Lohse given the way he has pitched in recent games. The Cardinals bullpen has very average numbers on the season and has been prone to allowing home runs as well and there will not be a reliable option to turn to if Lohse falters again.
Luke Hochevar had dominant minor league numbers before getting the call this season but his first start back in the big leagues was a disaster. He pitched well in his most recent start despite not lasting deep into the game and Hochevar has plenty of experience making 22 starts for the Royals last season. His numbers look atrocious in a very small sample but Hochevar is capable of providing a solid start and he is supported by one of the top statistical bullpens in the American League.
The Royals had great success in interleague play last season and Kansas City entered this series having won seven of the last ten meetings in this series at Busch Stadium. Despite much bigger names in the lineup for the Cardinals, the Royals have a higher team batting average and OPS. St. Louis is hitting just .210 as a team in the past ten games and the Cardinals have scored just 20 runs over the past nine games entering this series. St. Louis swept Chicago in the last series but hit just .205 in the three games, catching breaks against a cold Cubs lineup. St. Louis owns the better overall record but the Royals have been the superior team in recent weeks and the National League has not held up well in recent years of interleague play.